Transportation in the US and China, Roy Kienitz (June 2012)

Roy Kienitz Email: [email protected]

June 2012

New Trends and

Implications For China

TRANSPORTATION IN THE UNITED STATES

MOST PEOPLE’S IDEA OF AMERICA: House in the suburbs and a car

WHEN EVERYONE LIVES THIS WAY IT TAKES UP A LOT OF SPACE

AND ONE CAR IS NOT ENOUGH

THE RESULT: MORE CARS PER HOUSEHOLD AND MORE DRIVING PER PERSON

WHAT BEGAN AS A CHOICE BECAME A NECESSITY

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)

Average of 2.5%

Growth Per Year

ONE RESULT OF BUILDING THE INTERSTATE HIGHWAY SYSTEM

Construction: 45 Years (1956-2001) Length: 47,000 miles (75,000 km) Cost: $500 billion (2010 Dollars)

Rural Highways – “Inter-State”

50 Percent of Funds

Urban Highways

50 Percent of Funds

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS DID NOT CHANGE FOR ALMOST 30 YEARS

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)

AIRPORT CONSTRUCTION HELPED AIR TRAVEL GROW

27,000 FLIGHTS PER DAY

A GROWING PROBLEM: Return on investment for spending on surface

transportation has been declining -- law of diminishing returns

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2004 (Billions of Miles Per Year)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Driving In the United States, 1970 to 2012 (Billions of Miles Per Year)

No growth 2004 to 2012 – 8 Years

Decline Began in 2007, Before Financial Crisis of 2008-09

Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011

Driving Per Person, 1985- 2011

US GDP grew 8 percent during this period while driving per person fell 6 percent

80%

90%

100%

110%

120%

130%

1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

GDP (2005 Dollars)

Miles Driven

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DRIVING, 1999 - 2011 (GDP in constant 2005 Dollars, VMT in miles driven, 1999 = 100)

0

5

10

15

20

25

1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Ratio of Growth in GDP to Growth in Driving (5-Year Average) 1985 - 2008

UNTIL 2004 A GROWING ECONOMY = MORE DRIVING NOW THE ECONOMY CAN GROW WITHOUT MORE DRIVING

MORE BICYCLE LANES ARE BEING BUILT Miles of Protected Bikeway Per 100,000 Residents,

9 U.S. Cities, 2000 and 2010

Average Increase of 74% Over 10 Years In These 9 Cities

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS

FUEL ECONOMY STANDARDS

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2000 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

US DOMESTIC AIR TRAVEL, 1960-2011 (Millions of Revenue Passenger Miles)

HIGH SPEED RAIL INVESTMENT BEGAN IN 2009

IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 1: COST

• Transportation is a cost of doing business – cheaper is better

• Transportation policy emphasizing public transportation has high cost for government but low cost for families.

• Transportation policy emphasizing the car has high cost for both government and families

• A system build around public transportation has lower total costs

• Difference can be as much as 8% of GDP

IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 2: CITY PLANNING, LARGE SCALE • Public transportation is very effective in serving a

well-planned city • This requires directing new jobs and housing to

land served by Metro lines • Un-coordinated urban development is very hard to

serve with even the best public transportation system

• City must learn to say no to development that cannot be served by public transportation

• Mixing uses is key – jobs and housing in separate areas requires more trips and longer trips

IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 3: CITY PLANNING: SMALL SCALE

• People using public transportation must get to and from stations -- walking and cycling.

• For public transportation to work the city must be built for walking and cycling

• Super-blocks are the worst kind of design for walking and cycling

• Small things add up: parking policy, bike sharing, car sharing, traffic signal priority for buses

IDEAS FOR CONSIDERATION 4: THE POWER OF THE BUS • Beijing (other Chinese cities?) have wide streets • Changan Jie – 14 lanes? • There is room to create bus-only lanes, the key to good

Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) • One expressway lane dedicated to buses in the peak hour

has similar theoretical capacity as a new metro – (800 buses per hour, 65 people per bus = 52,000 people per hour

for BRT; Metro capacity can reach 60,000 per hour)

• Cost is MUCH lower, can be implemented much more quickly

• Single BRT lines do not meet their potential until they are part of a connected network

CONCLUSIONS

• Recent US experience shows that the economy can grow even as car use falls

• Cities do not need to fear measures to reduce car use if they do it thoughtfully

• Solving transportation in mega-cities is not possible without addressing land use and property development