Transformation of the LEWS Program to a Livestock Information Network & Knowledge System (LINKS) …..extending the technical and human capacity developed.

Transformation of the LEWS Program to a Livestock Information Network

& Knowledge System (LINKS)…..extending the technical and human capacity developed for livestock early warning systems to meet market information needs and decision support for livestock producers in East Africa

Lead Institution:Texas A&M University System

Global Livestock CRSPLINKS

Dr. Jerry Stuth, PI

Precipitation

Throughfall

Plant Interception(Evaporation)

Stem Flow

Surface PondingEvaporation

Infiltration

InfiltrationSoil

Evaporation

Runoff

Water TableDeep Percolation

Water Channel

Lateral Flow

Transpiration

Transpiration

Min/Max TemperatureSolar Radiation

PHYGROW Model…a hydrologic based forage production model that accommodates multiple plantsand multiple grazers

Selective GrazingWith Stocking Density Rules

PHYGROWModel Servers

GeostatisticalAnalysis

Climate Imagery

Regional ForageMaps

MinTemperature

Max Temperature

Rainfall

Site Analysis with 90-Day Forecasting

Integration of Models and Imagery

TsavoAbove Normal

MakinduAlert

Predicted -48 %Observed -52 %

Predicted -57 %Observed -45 %

How stable arethe predictions?

On March 1, 2003 two highly contrastinglocations in near proximity were contrastedand later compared with current predictionson May 20, 2003

Forage ConditionsLate May 2003

Expected ChangeIn Forage Conditions

by July 2003

NASAGoddard

NDVI

USGS/EROSFEWS NET

METEOSAT7Infrared Data

Pathfinder AVHRR

WorldSpaceFoundation

ServerALIN

RANET

TAMU-CNRITServer

LEWS AnalysisPortal

(PHYGROW, MappingAutomation)

ASARECACMO @

AfriStarSatellite

NOAA ClimatePrediction CenterRFE Weather Server Data

CD’s

MonitoringEntity

Satellite RadioLinked to PC

Internet

LEWS ASARECA PARTNERS

Ethiopia – Ethiopian Agricultural Research OrganizationKenya – KARI, ALRMP, Ministry of Agriculture & Rural Dev.Tanzania – Ministry of Water and Livestock DevelopmentUganda – National Agricultural Research Organization

OTHER LEWS PARTNERS

ASARECA Animal Research Network Crisis Mitigation OfficeInternational Livestock Research InstituteRegional Center for Mapping Resource DevelopmentDrought Monitoring CenterFamine Early Warning Systems NetworkIntergovernmental Authority for Development (IGAD)Arid Land Information Network (ALIN)ACMADRANETFARMAFRICAMpala Research Centre

Building LEWS Regional Teams and Capacity

Vegetation Diversity in East Africa

Mpwapwa, Tanzania

Kiboko, KenyaMbarara, Uganda

Adami Tulu, Ethiopia

Regional NIRS Diet:Fecal Studies

0100200300400500600700800900

100011001200130014001500160017001800190020002100

100 150 200 250 300 350

Day of Simulation

He

rba

ce

ou

s S

tan

din

g C

rop

(k

g/h

a)

Actual

PHYGROW

R2 = .85

PHYGROW Validation

Forage Estimation

Vegetation Characterization

Predicted herbaceous standing crop (kg/ha) verses actual clipped standing crop under grazing

Stakeholder Harmonization and Site Monitor Training

Building Institutional Awareness

Building Community Awareness and Confidence

Understanding Community Perception of LEWS Relative to their Forage Situation

• Minister (L&W) supportive, LEWS included in Government Budget 2003/4

• A LEWS office being set up and personnel appointed to facilitate linkages (PM office, Food Security Dept. , other EWS)

• Livestock Early Warning alerts reported at monthly management meetings at the Ministry

• Training at national level for policy makers planned

• Markets improved, Tanzania Livestock Marketing Project to be an agency

Rehabilitated Market

Institutional Commitment

PARIMA-LEWSPastoral Livestock Marketing

Joint Study

Objective: Identifying feasible interventions to

convert mortality losses into marketed offtake

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

% b

egin

nin

g p

eriod s

tocks

1980-811984-851988-891992-931996-97Years

Marketing and MortalitySouthern Ethiopian pastoralists

mortality

net sales

Two issues: 1. What factors limit pastoralists' marketed off-take response? 2. What might be done to foster more responsive pastoral

livestock marketing systems by relaxing those constraints?

Desta 1999

Drought Monitoring Center - Nairobi

Regional Center for MappingResource Development - Nairobi

Columbia University

AU-IBAR - Nairobi

Texas A&MUniversity

East Africa

Rift Valley Fever Working GroupRed Sea Livestock Trade Commission

http://iri.columbia.edu/iri/mission.html

Livestock Information Network and Knowledge System

For Enhanced Pastoral Livelihoods in East Africa

Core Program – Design and deploy new communication and information technology to create a livestock information system (LINKS) to supportdecision making at multiple scales from policy makers to pastoralcommunities within livestock market chains of Eastern

Module 1 – Expand the forecasting capacity of LINKS via the development of a spatial model of livestock movement and market offtake given constraintsof forage, water, disease, conflict and market prices

Module 2 – Capacity Building/Institutionalization of LINKS system withinpartner institutions

Livestock InformationNetwork and Knowledge

System

1) Livestock Market Locations 2) Livestock Movement Routes3) Water Capacity Along Routes 4) Cross Border Movement5) Forage Conditions6) Disease Quarantine Zones7) Transport Network8) Seasonal Migratory Patterns of Livestock9) Livestock Prices and Volume...and many more

0 100 200 300 40050Kilometers

1:5,005,381±

!( Major Livestock Collection Cemters

Accessibility (Travel Time)High : 36 Hours Low : 0 HoursNatural_Waterbodies

Road TypeConnectorsPrimary and secondary roadsTracks, trails, or footpaths

Updated Livestock Statistics1998-2000

Updated Water InfrastructureFor Livestock Markets Database

Legend

Lakes

Heads/Sq Km

High : 627

Low : 0

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MARSABIT

ISIOLO

MANDERA

GARISSA

SAMBURU

TURKANA

LAIKIPIA

BARINGO

NYERIKITUI

TANA RIVERNAKURU

MERU

NYAMBENE

THARAKA

KOIBATEK

MERU SOUTH

NYANDARUA

EMBUKIRINYAGAMBEERE

Pesi

Boji

Poro

Fino

UranBori Odda

Korr

Diff

Buna

Bute

Thome

Merti

Marti

Wamba

Neboi

Dandu

Rhamu

Elwak

Dujis

Liboi

Walda

Dabel

Turbi

Songa

Kargi

Meeri

Sarif

Ajawa

Gurar

Eldas

Mutara

Sosian

Segera

Sirima

Naibor

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Sipili

Eldera

BulesaKisima

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Arabia

Hullow

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Takaba

Dadaab

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Godoma

Sololo

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Bubisa

Balesa

Sebule

Banane

Hadado

Godoma

Kotulo

Griftu

Tarbaj

I lpolei

Lamuria

SalaamaOljabet

OlmoranKipsing

Gafarsa

KorbesaSericho

Hambalo

Jaldesa

Sagante

Merille

Kalacha

Maikona

Gerille

Abakore

Wagalla

IlngwesiMakurian

Kimanjoi

Marmanet

Rumuruti

Kulamawe

Barsaloi

Khalalio

Eldanaba

Wargadud

Hagadera

Logologo

Ngurunit

Laisamis

Wargadud

NturukumaNyahururu

Malkadaka

Oldonyiro

Modogashe

Sereolipi

Malkamari

Dagahaley

Wajir-Bor

Arbajahan

HabasweinIresa Boru

Ngare Mara

South HorrSouth Horr

North Horr

Malka Galla

Garba Tulla

Isiolo Town

Bisan Biliku

Archers Post

Maralal Town

Khorof-Harar

Suguta Marmar

Maundu-Ni-Meri

Marsabit Urban

Dambala Fachana

Mandera Township

Livestock Market & Information System

Transformation of the LEWS Program to a Livestock Information Network & Knowledge System (LINKS) …..extending the technical and human capacity developed.

Documents

imagery slide

grazing slide

capacity slide

pi slide

confidence slide

forage situation slide

east africa slide

pc internet slide