Toni Loyzaga Revised M O Climate Risk 10262009 1

CLIMATE RISKS

Dr. Gemma T. Narisma, Dr. Rosa T. Perez,

Ms. Antonia Y. Loyzaga,

with Dr. Celine Vicente

and Dr. Fernando Siringan*

Manila Observatory, Philippines

* Marine Science Institute, University of the Philippines Diliman

Outline

• The Philippine Climate is Changing

• The Philippine Climate will Continue

to Change

• The Philippines is Changing

• An Integrated Risk Assessment

• Ondoy: Extreme Hazard, Maximum Exposure, High Vulnerability

The Philippine Climate is Changing

Average

summer (march- may)

temperatures,

1900- 1995

Average annual

temperatures, 1900- 1995

Warmer temperatures

Warmer temperatures

IPCC DDC

Dry months, Jan-April Wet months, June-October

Drier than

usual

Wetter than

usual

Drier than

usual

IPCC DDC

Western Pacific Typhoon Tracks (1945-2003) (Angl

Tropical Cyclone Passage Statistics (1948-1992);

Metro Manila Bataan Bulacan

Pampanga Cavite

36 20 19

18 16 Perez et al., 2004

More typhoon crossings over Visayas

Anglo, 2005

Geographic Trends in Tropical Cyclones (1945-2003)

1. Isabela

2. Camarines Sur

3. Cagayan

4. Nueva Ecija

5. Pangasinan

6. Oriental Mindoro

7. Albay

8. Siquijor

9. Bulacan

10. Laguna

11. Pampanga

12. Occidental Mindoro

13. Surigao Del Sur

14. Quezon

15. Batangas

16. Cavite

17. Catanduanes

18. Capiz

19. Ilocos Norte

20. Bataan

DA Data (1992-2006)

above 500M

www.flickr.com/photos/ gpsea/2498556888

http://anythingtheysay.blogspot.com.html

bayanihanpost.com

El Nino, La Nina, Drought, Floods

Pepeng + Ondoy

1. Isabela

2. Cagayan

3. Sorsogon

4. North Cotabato

5. Davao Del Sur

6. Bukidnon

7. Southern Leyte

8. Palawan

9. Quirino

10. Iloilo

11. Capiz

12. Camarines Sur

13. Davao Del Norte

14. Zamboanga Del Sur

15. Nueva Ecija

16. Maguindanao

17. Negros Oriental

18. Nueva Vizcaya

19. Davao Oriental

20. Quezon

DA Data (1992-2006)

above 500M

1. Isabela

2. Nueva Ecija

3. Cagayan

4. Pangasinan

5. Ilocos Sur

6. Pampanga

7. Surigao Del Sur

8. La Union

9. Bulacan

10. Zamboanga Sibugay

11. Maguindanao

12. Agusan Del Norte

13. Lanao Del Norte

14. Abra

15. Aurora

16. Quirino

17. Ilocos Norte

18. Sulu

19. South Cotabato

20. Bataan

Source: DA Data (1992-2006)

above 500M

Department of Agriculture Data (1992-2006)

1. Isabela

2. Cagayan

3. Camarines Sur

4. Nueva Ecija

5. Pangasinan

6. Bulacan

7. Iloilo

8. Pampanga

9. Oriental Mindoro

10. Albay

11. Siquijor

12. Laguna

13. Occidental Mindoro

14. Surigao Del Sur

15. Capiz

16. Quezon

17. Batangas

18. Cavite

19. Catanduanes

20. Bukidnon

QuickTime™ and a decompressor

are needed to see this picture.

Inquirer, NOAA, Caritas, Warwick and the Environment

Minimum temperatures in LB have increased by more than 1oC 1979-2003

Each 1oC rise cause decrease in yield by 10% Peng et al(2004)

Less rain or too much rain, less harvest,

Changes in timing of rain also critical, CO2 rise favors crops, but weeds like it more

New crop varieties will be needed

The Philippine Climate will

continue to change

A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

HAZARD


HAZARD

The Philippines is Changing

Upgrading, increase inandclustering of urban centers

An Integrated Risk Assessment

Risk LexiconLikelihood of

harm, loss, disasterRISK

HAZARDPhysical impact of

disturbance

EXPOSUREElements affected by hazard

VULNERABILITY

Susceptibility &

capacity to

prepare, absorb,

& recover from hazard

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

(UNDP and UNDRO, 1979)


HAZARD

2020 2050


RISK


HAZARD


RISK

HAZARD RISK

ONDOY Extreme HAZARD,

Maximum EXPOSURE,

High VULNERABILITY

330.3 mm

• Accumulated rainfall over a week measured by TRMM was over

500 mm in Metro Manila. This value is higher than the monthly

normal.

http://www.nscb.gov.ph/headlines/Sta

tsSpeak/2009/030909_rav_climatechange.asp

http://trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/trmm_rain/Events/manila_rainfall_perspective_21-

28sep09.jpg

Rain Accumulated in Southern and Central Luzon (21-28 Sep 2009)

Weekly Accumulated Rain = 459.8 mm

Accumulated Rainfall in Manila Observatory (21-28 Sep 2009)

0

100

200

300

400

500

9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28

Dai

ly R

ain

(m

m)

Accumulated Rain

Daily

Normal Monthly Accumulated Rain for September

Daily Rain

26 Sep 2009 368.6 mm

• “Ondoy” brought a total of 368.8 mm of rain over Manila

Observatory on September 26, 2009.

• This daily rain measured in Manila Observatory is higher than the

monthly normal (330.3mm) in the Port Area.

Wind Direction and Wind Speed

Hourly Rainfal, Average Pressure and Winds in Manila Observatory (26 Sep 2009)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12 AM 3 AM 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM

Time (pht)

Rai

n (

mm

)

985

990

995

1000

1005

Pre

ssu

re (

hP

a)

Rain

Barometric Pressure

• The highest rainfall was measured in Manila Observatory between

9 AM and 1 PM.

• Highest rainfall of 61.4 mm/hr was measured at 10 AM

Low-lying Coastal Zones

• Philippines included in the top ten countries of the world with high population occupying the low elevation coastal zone or LECZ (> 15 million inhabitants).

• LECZ is defined as a coastal zone < 10 meters of elevation.

Levy, M., CIESIN, Earth Institute

2007

CLUSTER G

CLUSTER F

CLUSTER ECLUSTER C

CLUSTER B

CLUSTER D

CLUSTER A

ZONE 3

ZONE 1

ZONE 4

ZONE 2

LAS PIÑASCITY

PATEROS

MAKATI CITY

TAGUIG

PARAÑAQUECITY

PASAYCITY

PASIGCITY

MUNTINLUPACITY

MANDALUYONG CITY

MANILA SAN JUAN

MARIKINA CITY

NAVOTAS

MALABON

KALOOKAN CITY

QUEZON CITY

VALENZUELA CITY

KALOOKAN CITY

Laguna de Bay

Manila Bay

CLUSTER H

KALOOKAN CITY

VALENZUELA CITY

QUEZON CITY

KALOOKAN CITY

MALABON

NAVOTAS

MARIKINA CITY

SAN JUANMANILA

MANDALUYONG CITY

MUNTINLUPACITY

PASIGCITY

PASAYCITY

PARAÑAQUECITY

TAGUIG

MAKATI CITY

PATEROS

LAS PIÑASCITY

ZONE 2

ZONE 4

ZONE 1

ZONE 3

CLUSTER A

CLUSTER D

CLUSTER B

CLUSTER C CLUSTER E

CLUSTER F

CLUSTER G

Laguna de Bay

Manila Bay

CLUSTER H

Metro ManilaInformal Settlements

(1997 vs. 2000)

1 - Urban Core2 - Intermediate Zone3 - Urban Fringe4 - Hills

Zones of Urbanization

Clusters (A-H)

Major Roads

Locations of Slums

Boundaries of Slums

Poverty maps show:

- Clusters of slums and squatter settlements around "attractors", these being commercial and industrial magnets, main transport routes, easements and vacant lots, waterways, railways and under bridges (Refer to 1997 Map of Surrounding Land Use)

- Distribution of urban poor commmunities following web-like urbanization that follow the path of least resistance

- Self-perpetuating or aggravating conditions of blight (verified through ground reconnaissance)

- Metastatic or spreading and "cumulative impacts" of poverty (World Bank)

Remarks:

Images processed using Natural Color Algorithm

R = Red Band G = ((Green Band) * 3 + NIR Band) / 4 B = Green Band

SOURCE:

SPOT XS of Metor Manila, 1997Image courtesy of Foundation for the Philippine Environment (FPE),National Mapping and Reseource

Information Authority (NAMRIA) andUnited States Agency for International

Development (USAID)

SPOT XS of Metro Manila, 2000Image courtesy of University of the Philippines

Training Center for Applied Geodesy and Photogrammetry (UP-TCAGP)

MUNICIPALITY

KALOOKAN CITY NAVOTASLAS PIÑAS CITY PARAÑAQUEMAKATI CITY PASAY CITYMALABON PATEROSMANDALUYONG QUEZON CITYMANILA SAN JUANMARIKINA CITY TAGUIGMUNTINLUPA VALENZUELA

2 0 2 4 6

Kilometers

SCALE

Batasan Hills

Hol y Spirit

Bago ng S ilanganCon stitu ti on Hills

CommonwealthPayatas

Fairview

Matan dang Balara

PORT AREA Barangay 649

TONDO Barangay 20

TONDO Barangay 19

SAN NICOLAS Barangay 275



PORT Barang

Kalaw aan

Napi ndan

Cani ogan

Maybunga

Pin ag buhatan

San Miguel

Sta. Lucia

Palatiw

Rosario

Slums along Commonwealth Ave.,QUEZON CITY

Slums in Port Area,MANILA

Slums beside Manggahan Floodway,PASIG CITY

Slums 2000

Slums 1997

Barangay Boundary

Insets of Slum Areas

The Manila Observatory and The Urban Research Consortium

The Urban Poverty Morphology Project Phase III

Analysis of Migration and Spatial Distribution Dynamics of Informal Settlements in Metro Manila Using Geomatics

1997 2000

ALOS/PALSAR Images Before and After “Ondoy”

Apparent increase in the Marikina River width after “Ondoy”.

Lamesa DAM

Marikina River

http://dmss.tksc.jaxa.jp/download/ALPSRP195690280.jpghttp://dmss.tksc.jaxa.jp/download/ALPSRP182270280.jpg

Lamesa DAM

Marikina River

2009 June 26, 2235 pht (before)

http://maps.google.com/

Lamesa DAM

Marikina River

2009 September 26, 2235 pht (after)

BALUBAD, NANGKA, MARIKINA CITY

MALANDAY, MARIKINA CITY

PROVIDENT, MARIKINA CITY

MANGGAHAN, PASIG CITY

Emerging points ….

Integrated risk assessment

• Importance of identifying not only hazards but also

exposure and vulnerability: People and Sectors

• Each local community has a unique risk assessment

Ondoy

• Importance of land use/development planning

• Information/data, observation and monitoring, including

information dissemination

Trend towards

increasing

demand for

water every five

years around the more

urbanized and

urbanizing

sections of the

metropolis. Estimated Water Demand per Land Use Type per

Municipality

2001 20062011

20212016

2001 2006 2011

2016 2021

Principal Rules of DRR(Adapted from Mechanism of Natural Disaster Reduction, ADRC, 2005)

H

E V

R

Mitigate the Hazard

Minimize Exposure Decrease Vulnerability

RISK = HAZARD x EXPOSURE x VULNERABILITY

Toni Loyzaga Revised M O Climate Risk 10262009 1

Technology

rapid economic growth

low population growth

rapid introduction of

hazard risk

hazard a1b

timing of rain

risk a1b

efficient technology