TIMES-Kazakhstan: from a national to a regional analysis and modelling Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio, Aidyn Bakdolotov, Igor Kolyagin, Bakytzhan Suleimenov, Yerbol Akhmetbekov June 1st 2015 ETSAP Workshop Abu Dhabi, Dusit Thani Hotel National Laboratory Astana
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TIMES-Kazakhstan: from a national to a regional analysis and modeling
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TIMES-Kazakhstan: from a national to a regional analysis and modelling
Aiymgul Kerimray, Rocco De Miglio,
Aidyn Bakdolotov, Igor Kolyagin,
Bakytzhan Suleimenov, Yerbol Akhmetbekov
June 1st 2015
ETSAP Workshop
Abu Dhabi, Dusit Thani Hotel
National Laboratory Astana
ENERGY BALANCE OF KAZAKHSTAN IN
2012
TFC/TPES = 55%
IEA (2013)
High exports
High energy industry own use and losses
GDP ENERGY INTENSITY OF
KAZAKHSTAN
• Kazakhstan takes 11th place in the world with its GDP energy intensity • There are some differences in IEA and NU assessments (8-15%)
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
toe
/10
00
$2
00
5U
SD
GDP energy intensity in 2011
Kazakhstan IEA
Kazakhstan-NURIS
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
toe
/10
00
$2
00
5U
SD
GDP Energy intensity over 2007-2012
NURIS
IEA
REASONS FOR INEFFICIENCIES
Geographical: the continental climate, large
territory, low population density 6 people/sq.m.
and uneven distribution of power generating
capacities over the territory
Administrative and economic: lack of
metering for energy saving, low profitability
Technical: high wear of the equipment in the
energy intensive sectors, high wear of electric
lines, dilapidation of the housing stock
• Low efficiencies of power plants, almost 50
% of generating capacities has run for more
than 30 years
• Huge transmission (5%) and distribution
(13%) losses of electricity
• Up to 35% of losses of heat in distribution
0.56
0.70 0.71
0.83
0.61 0.60 0.68 0.67
0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
TFC/TPES (2012)
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
-10000
-5000
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
Coal &peat Crude oil Natural gas RES&Nuclear Oil products
Total primary energy supply over 2007-2012, ktoe (NU)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SECTORS
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Industry Transport Residential Other Non-energyuse
Energy consumption by sectors, 2007-2012, ktoe (NU)
Commercial and public services 15.65 0.01 18.98 0.04 136.18 93.17 264.03
Agriculture/forestry 0.00 - 0.46 - 0.01 - 0.48
Fishing 0.04 - 2.61 - 0.05 0.21 2.91
Non-specified (other) - - - - - - -
Non-energy use - - 6.90 - - - 6.90
Non-energy use industry/transformation/energy - - 6.90 - - - 6.90
• 48 FEBs for 16 regions were reclassified (2010-2012) to IEA format
• Different data sources
• Analysis of statistical differences
• Country balances were updated accordingly
• For the first time regions level FEB
REGIONAL INDICATORS
76%
47%
57%
29%
53%
84%
46%
77%
57%
44%
57%
34%
54%
83%
58%
85%
0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.90
Akm
ola
ob
l.
Akt
ob
e o
bl.
Alm
aty
ob
l.
Aty
rau
ob
l.
WK
O
Zham
byl
ob
l.
Kar
agan
da
ob
l.
Ko
stan
ay o
bl.
Kyz
ylo
rda
ob
l.
Man
gist
au o
bl.
SKO
Pav
lod
ar o
bl.
NK
O
EKO
Ast
ana
city
Alm
aty
city
TFC/TPES
WORLD AVERAGE
8.2 9.9 5.3 6.6 4.7 3.4
32.6
8.7 5.3
14.7
3.7
66.8
11.7 8.7 10.2 5.8
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
CO2 emissions per capita, t/person
Kazakhstan average
World average
-10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000 20000
Akmola obl.
Aktobe obl.
Almaty obl.
Atyrau obl.
West-Kazakhstan obl.
Zhambyl obl.
Karaganda obl.
Kostanay obl.
Kyzylorda obl.
Mangistau obl.
South-Kazakhstan obl.
Pavlodar obl.
North-Kazakhstan obl.
East-Kazakhstan obl.
Astana city
Almaty city
Total primary energy supply by fuel type, ktoe
Coal Crude oil Oil products Gas Electricity
REGIONAL INDICATORS
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Consumption of heat by houses provided by district heating per living area by regions of
Kazakhstan, kwh/m2
2011 Kazakhstan average Russia Finland
REGIONAL INDICATORS
20/19
Final consumption structure differ from region to region: • Gas consumption varies from 0 to 48% • Coal consumption varies from 0.1 to 42% • Oil products varies from 12 to 52% • Industrial consumption varies from 6 to 72%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Final consumption by type of fuel, by regions, %
Heat Electricity Gas Oil products Crude oil Coal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Akm
ola
ob
l.
Akt
ob
e o
bl.
Alm
aty
ob
l.
Aty
rau
ob
l.
WK
O
Zham
byl
ob
l.
Kar
agan
da
ob
l.
Ko
stan
ay o
bl.
Kyz
ylo
rda
ob
l.
Man
gist
au o
bl.
SKO
Pav
lod
ar o
bl.
NK
O
EKO
Ast
ana
city
Alm
aty
city
Final consumption by sector, by
regions %
Non-energy use Agriculture/forestry
Services Population
Transport Industry
CONCLUSIONS, FUTURE WORK
21/19
• There is significant room for energy efficiency saving in
Kazakhstan even in BAU optimal solution (22Mtoe in 2030)
• CO2 reduction targets require higher gas penetration
• Regions of Kazakhstan differ significantly and energy efficiency
potential is different
• 16 regions model will improve the quality of modeling results but