Time Matters Webinar Slides

ALBANY • BARCELONA • BANGALORE August 2010

TIME MATTERSTIME MATTERSUSING WINDNAVIGATOR REPORTS AND VIRTUAL METEOROLOGICAL MASTS TO EXPEDITEUSING WINDNAVIGATOR REPORTS AND VIRTUAL METEOROLOGICAL MASTS TO EXPEDITE

THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS FOR SMALL AND DISTRIBUTED GENERATION PROJECTS

AMBER TRENDELLDIRECTOR OF SALES AND MARKETING

BRYON PHELPSPRODUCT COORDINATORPRODUCT COORDINATOR

JOHNATHAN SCOFIELDTECHNICAL SALES REP

463 NEW KARNER ROAD | ALBANY, NY 12205 | awstruepower.com | [email protected]

TECHNICAL SALES REP

Outline• Typical Wind Resource Assessment

– Timeline & CostTimeline & Cost

• Understanding the Resource– Important Guidelines and Characteristics

• Modeling Limitations– Where does uncertainty come from?– How do AWS Truepower’s models perform?

• windNavigator SolutionsR t d Vi t l M t l i l M t (VMM )– Reports and Virtual Meteorological Masts (VMMs)

– Which solution is right for you?– AWST Experiences

©2010 AWS Truepower, LLC

Typical Wind Resource Assessment:Timeline & CostTimeline & Cost


Total Time: Minimum of 1 YEAR

Monthly Data

Wind Study including:

TOTAL TIME:

Tower Siting Memo

Tower Installation

Data Checks,

Validation, and

gMCP

Analysis &Energy

1 YearEST TOTAL

COST:Reporting

Energy Analysis

COST:~$60k


Understanding the Resource:Important Guidelines andImportant Guidelines and Characteristics


Need to know the supply’s “quality” before predicting the power extracted by a wind turbine: Speed vs. Distribution


Must characterize wind speed and direction

VSVS.


Must characterize wind speed and direction and temperature too…

H CTemperature


Power of the wind is function of cube of wind speed so…Doubling the speed = 8 times the available power

• Speeds usually blow within the ramp portion of aramp portion of a turbine’s power curvecurve

• Modest errors in speed can equal p qlarge errors in power prediction


Modeling Limitations:Where does uncertainty come from?Where does uncertainty come from?


Model Type: different models consider different assumptions

M l Mi lMesoscale Microscale

Full equations of motion Mass conservingFull equations of motion Mass-conserving

Dynamic Adjusts for local TerrainDynamic Adjusts for local Terrain

Considers 366 days from 15 yrs Adjusts for local RoughnessConsiders 366 days from 15 yrs Adjusts for local Roughness

2.5 km resolution 200 m resolution2.5 km resolution 200 m resolution


Resolution: Drives uncertainty associated with terrain complexity and power output

200 m Resolution 2 km Resolution 10 km Resolution


Modeling Limitations:How do AWST’s models perform?How do AWST s models perform?


windNavigator - AccuracyMap-Based Energy Estimates: How Accurately Can Wind Plant Performance Be Estimated Without On-Site Wind Measurements?

Comparison of map-based energy estimations with public info about existing wind plants– Standard error of 10.5% and mean bias of -3.8% found for 148 plant-years w/

data from 41 wind projects– Bias mainly due to underestimation in Northeast and Westas a y due to u de est at o o t east a d est

Conclusions:1. Map based assessments using public data, AWS Truepower’s wind

maps and modeled data sets provides a relatively high degree of confidence and statistical repeatability

2 Can provide quick and economical production estimates2. Can provide quick and economical production estimates


windNavigator - AccuracyQuantification and Applications of Wind Flow Modeling Uncertainty• Obtain quantitative estimates of the wind flow modeling uncertainty

across a range of site conditions• Develop and validate a general framework for describing the spatial• Develop and validate a general framework for describing the spatial

variation of wind flow modeling uncertaintyConclusions:1. Spatial variation in the wind flow modeling uncertainty is an

important factor to consider in designing wind projects2. Topographic similarity – if extended to encompass land surface

conditions as well as terrain – is a useful concept for understanding the spatial variation of wind flow modeling uncertaintyp g y


windNavigator Solutions:Reports and Virtual Met Masts (VMM)Reports and Virtual Met Masts (VMM)


VMMs: Time Saving replacement for traditional campaigns


Reports: Providing Model Assumptions & Site Characteristics


Reports: Providing Model Assumptions & Site Characteristics


Reports: Comparing Potential Turbine Models


Reports: Setting the appropriate expectations with clients


windNavigator Solutions:Which solution is right for you?Which solution is right for you?


Guidelines for choosing the right product for you:

1. Identify Site Characteristics – What is the terrain ycomplexity and land cover for your area of interest

2. Identify Energy Prediction Resolution – Focus on annual/seasonal trends or detailed monthly output

3. Identify How Many Turbines you’re interested in y y ycomparing

4. Identify requirements for funding


Comparing the Costs

Solution Timeline List Price*Solution Timeline List Price*

Typical Wind Assessment campaign Minimum 1 Year $60k

Site Surveyor Report 20 min – 24 hrs $750

Site Analyst Report 20 min 24 hrs $2kSite Analyst Report 20 min – 24 hrs $2k

Site Analyst Pro Report 20 min – 24 hrs $3k

*Prices listed for Reports are without any subscription to windNavigator.


ALBANY • BARCELONA • BANGALORE August 2010

QUESTIONSQUESTIONS

JOHNATHAN SCOFIELDTECHNICAL SALES REPRESENTATIVE

518-213-0044 EX 1086518-213-0044 EX. [email protected]

463 NEW KARNER ROAD | ALBANY, NY 12205 | awstruepower.com | [email protected]

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