ITO Webinar Slides

8/8/2019 ITO Webinar Slides

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www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronics

NanoMarkets

ITOMarketOpportunitiesANanoMarketsWebinar

June16,

2009

2009, NanoMarkets, LC

Single use license only.

Do not distribute or duplicate

these slides in any way.


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www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronicsNanoMarkets

AboutNanoMarkets

Foundedin2004; sistercompanyCIRfoundedin1979

Industryanalysis

of

emerging

markets

in

energy

and

electronics

enabled

newdevelopmentsinmaterialsscience

Workincludesmarket,companyandtechnologyanalysis,market

forecastingand

due

diligence

Offeringsincludereports,customconsulting,seminars/webinarsandin

housetraining,databasesandblogs


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Related

NanoMarkets

ReportsQ12009Releases:

ConductiveCoatingsMarkets:2009andBeyond

Materials

for

Thin

Film

Silicon

PhotovoltaicsMarketsforZincOxideinElectronics

MetalsinPhotovoltaics ReportSeries

2008

Releases:TheFutureofITO:TransparentConductorandITOReplacementMarkets

ThinFilmPhotovoltaics Markets:2008andBeyond


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Plan

of

Webinar

ITOvs.thealternatives

ITOandindiumpricing

Marketforecasts

Emergingopportunities:

applications

Emergingopportunities:ITOalternatives

Saving

ITO:

manufacturing

and

materials

Conclusions


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The

Opportunity?

ITOsmanyfaultswouldseemtocreatearipeenvironmentfor

competition:

Newtransparentconductormaterialsofferingimprovedperformance

intheareaswhereITOfallsshort

DifferentmethodsofusingandapplyingITOtoaddresstheseissues.


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Not

Fade

Away SinceNanoMarketsissueditsfirstITOreportin2008,ITOhasshownlittle

signoffadingaway, andbecauseofthepricedeclineduetothe

worldwiderecession,itsendisevenfurtheroutthanwemighthave

previouslyexpected.

WewarnedinthatreportthatalternativestoITOwouldmakeprogress,

butonlyslowly;thishasprovedtobetrue,anditprobablywouldhave

beenso

even

without

the

recession.

However,theITOmarketisverylarge,sothatevensmallinroadsintothe

marketbyITOalternativescanleadtosubstantialrevenueopportunities.

Someofthenewapplicationsthatareemergingareonlyenlargingthe

challengesthatITOisfacing.


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Breakoutof ITOandITOAlternativeRevenuesby

Material($

Millions)

2009 2011 2015

ITOClassic 3,165.5 5,151.3 9,496.6

ITOInksandPastes 1.4 27.5 89.6

OtherTCOs 28.1 54.5 188.3

CarbonNanotube

Based

Formulations0.0 86.8 218.9

OtherNanomaterials,

Composites,andMetals

0.0 57.6 182.9

TransparentOrganic

Conductors 1.9 24.1 136.1

TOTALMARKET 3,196.9 5,401.9 10,312.3


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www.nanomarkets.netthin film l organic l printable l electronicsNanoMarkets 2009, NanoMarkets, LC

9

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

$/KG

Year

HistoricalPriceofIndium

Absolute

Inflation

Adjusted

(2008$)

NanoMarkets,LC





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Thoughtson

Indium

Indiumpricesdomatter,eveniftheyareasmallproportionofBOMsand

finalcost

FuturecompetitionforIndiumfromCIGS,InPchipsand(maybe)nuclear

power

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Summaryof

Indium

Suppliers


11

Country Suppliers

ASIA

Chi na Cha ngs haFengchao PigmentChemical LiuzhouChinaTinGroup

Dongwu NonferrousMetals

Mine

Tianjin

Indium

Products

Company,

HuludaoZincIndustryCompany Yunnan TinCompany

JiangxiCopperCompany, Zhuzhou Zinc

Ja pa n As a hiPretec Dowa Mining

JapanEnergyCorp Mitsui Mininga ndSmelting

NipponMining ShinkoChemical

SumitomoElectricIndustries SumitomoMetalMining

NORTHAMERICA

Ca na da Fa l conbridge Teck Comi nco

UnitedStates AIMInc. Alfa Aesar

BelmontMetals IndiumCorp.ofAmerica

McP Metalspecialities

EUROPE

Bel gium Umi core

Germa ny Frema t HEK

PPMPure Metals

OTHER:

Aus tralia Ama c Al l oys





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Breakoutof ITOandITOAlternativeRevenuesby

Application($

Millions)

2009 2011 2015

RigidLCDandOtherFPDDisplays 2,736.7 4,509.7 8,181.0

TouchScreenDisplays 323.7 573.3 1,157.9

FlexibleDisplays 0.2 2.7 31.2

ELLighting 16.1 22.4 23.4

OLEDLighting 0.2 5.8 49.6

ThinFilmPhotovoltaics 91.3 236.9 767.7

HighValueConductiveCoatings 28.8 51.2 101.5

TOTALMARKET 3,196.9 5,401.9 10,312.3


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ApplicationsReview:

Touch

Screens

-I

MakersofITOsubstitutesseethetouchscreenmarketasabigopportunity;in

additiontothebusinessandengineeringreasonssupporting theadoptionofsuch

atechnology,theaddressablemarketisalreadyverylarge.,

Resistivetouchscreens,whichdominatethemarket,areripeforanalternative

transparentconductor. ITOcannotstandup totherepeatedpokingandflexing

thatisinvolvedwiththistypeoftouchscreenwithoutdeterioratingorcracking.


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ApplicationsReview:

Touch

Screens

-II

Capacitivetouchscreensareadifferentstory. Theseareemergingasthehigh

endversionofthetouchscreencategory,especiallysincethelaunchofApples

iPhone,whichusescapacitivetechnology. Capacitivetechnologyoffershigher

clarityand

quality

of

the

display

image

and

since

it

does

not

work

by

poking

with

(say)astylus,thecapacitivescreencanmoreeasilymakeuseofITO.

NanoMarketsexpectsITOtolosemarketshareintheresistivetouchscreen

segmentfairlyquickly, although,absentsomekindofbreakthroughinthe

transparencyandconductivityofanalternative,NanoMarketsexpectsITOto

dominatethecapacitivetouchscreenmarketthroughouttheforecastperiod

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ApplicationsReview:

Flexible

Displays

-I

FlexibledisplayswouldbeanattractivemarketforITOsubstitutes,because,liketouch

screendisplaystheyalsoplaceimportantphysicaldemandsonthetransparentconductors

thattheyuse. However,despitetheimpressionthatonemightgetfromasuperficialreadof

thetrade

press,

there

is

really

no

such

thing

as

afully

flexible

display

on

the

market

today.

Therehavebeendemonstrations(inlate2008anissueofEsquire magazinewasreleased

withanepaperdisplayon itsfrontcover),aswellasannouncements ofsuchdisplays,but

nonearecommerciallyavailable. Forinstance,thefirstflexibleebookreader,Readiusby

Polymer

Vision,

was

scheduled

for

release

in

2008

but

now

is

not

expected

until

later

in

2009.


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ApplicationsReview:

Flexible

Displays

-II

AndintermsofflexibleOLEDdisplays,theseareevenfurtherbehind. WhileSamsunghas

announcedthat itexpectsto introduceflexibleOLEDdisplaysin2010,flexibleOLEDdisplays

havefarfewerbackersthanflexibleepaperdisplaysandindeedthetermflexibledisplay

and

e

paper

have

become

closely

related,

if

not

synonymous.

Withtheplethoraofproductdelaysthroughout thethinfilmelectronicsindustry,

NanoMarketshasahealthyskepticismwithregardtoclaimsofimminentreleasesof

revolutionarydevices.Thus,NanoMarketsdoesntexpectflexibleOLEDdisplaystogaina

footholdincommercializationuntil2011orlater.

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ApplicationsReview:

Solid

-State

Lighting

OLEDand electroluminescent(EL)lightingbothemployITOasthetransparentelectrodeinmostcases.

IfthereisareasontoreplaceITOinELlightingitwould becost,sincethistypeoflightingisused

primarilyincostsensitiveareassuchasautomotivedashboardlightingandlowendsignageapplications.

ButELisamaturetechnology thatmostpeoplebelieve willgraduallybereplaced,sotheopportunities are

not

that

great

in

the

long

term

for

transparent

semiconductors

of

any

kind.

Theopportunitiesaremuchgreater,however,intheareaofOLEDlighting, whichisexpectedtoyieldhigherperformancedevicesandtoeventuallybecomeamajorpartofthegenerallightingmarket

becauseofitsenergyefficiency andpotentiallowcostinthefuture. Although ITOisusuallyusedfor

OLEDtransparentelectrodes,itisnotfirmlyentrenchedbecauseofthisearlystateofdevelopment. In

additiontotheusualdrawbacksofITOcostandlackofflexibilityOLEDscansufferaestheticshortcomingsduetoITOsfairlylowconductivity. LargeOLEDpanels,suchasmightbeusedinlamps,willshowabrightnessgradientasvoltagedropsalongthelengthofthepanelbecauseofITOsresistance.

NanoMarketsexpectsITOtoloseshareoftheOLEDlightingmarketfairlyrapidly.Initsplacewillbea

varietyofsubstitutes:othertransparentconductingoxides(TCOs)atthelowend,aswellasconductivepolymers,

carbon

nanotubes

(CNTs),

and

composites.


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ApplicationsReview:

TFPV

and

OPV/DSC

Onlyorganicphotovoltaics (OPV)anddyesensitizedcell(DSC)PVthelowestvolumetechnologiesand

thefurthestfromcommercializationuse mainly ITOfortheirtransparentconductors.CdTePVandCIGS

PV,mainlyusealternativeTCOs(fluorinedopedtinoxideforCdTeandaluminumdopedzincoxidefor

CIGS). Andthelongestablished amorphoussilicon(aSi)PVindustry,althoughitusedmainlyITOprior

toabout

2000,

now

uses

alternative

TCOs

(AZO

and

FTO)

as

much

as

ITO.

ITOisnotheavilyusedintheTFPVsector,inpartbecausethissectorisverycostconscious. ThisareaisattractingconsiderableattentionfrommakersofITOsubstitutesforanumberofreasons. Onesuch

reasonissimplythatPVisoneofthefewindustriesthathascontinued toexperiencegrowthduringthis

recessionaryperiodandsoisseenasproviding anattractivecustomerbase. TheTFPVindustryisalso

headingtoward

flexibility

in

higher

end

productsa

move

that

may

bring

about

some

opportunity

for

otheralternativetransparentconductors (besidesTCOs). EspeciallyintheprecommercialfieldsofOPVandDSC,thereisalotofexperimentationgoingonwithflexible transparentconductors.

Assuch,NanoMarketsexpectsnonITOTCOstoremaindominantintheTFPVsegmentthroughoutthe

forecastperiod. ITOisnotexpectedtomakeanyincreasetoitsfairlylowmarketshare;instead,the

moreflexible

alternatives

(including

polymers,

CNTs,

and

the

metal

formulations

discussed

below)

will

makeinroadsintothismarkettowardthelatterpartoftheforecastperiod.


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ITOAlternatives:

TCOs

TCOsareanobviousdirectiontotakesincetheyguaranteeacostreduction;nootherTCOisanywhere

nearasexpensiveasITO. Asaresult,anumberofalternativeTCOshavefoundnichemarketsandinthe

casewheretheyareusedinsolarpanels,theopportunity hasrecentlymovedbeyond nichestatusandis

growingatasignificantrateevenduringtherecession.

Untiltheendof2008,alternativeTCOsdidnothavemanyadvocateswhowerereallypushingtheidea.

However,agroupofJapanesefirmshasnowformedanalliancetopromotezincoxide(ZnO)asanITO

alternative. ThiscertainlyhelpsthecauseofTCOs.

AlsoamongTCOs,NanoMarketsisseeingdevelopmentsinimproving etchprocessesforfluorinedoped

tinoxide(FTO). FTOperformssimilarlytoITOintheplasmadisplaypanel(PDP)application,butisnotwidelyusedbecauseitisdifficulttoetchaccurately.

Unfortunately,whileTCOsundoubtedlygetoverthehighmaterialcostissuesassociatedwithITO,they

haveidenticalorworsebrittlenessissues.Inaddition,theywillneverofferthecombinationof

transparencyand conductivity offeredbyITO. Neverisawordthatoneshould alwaysbecarefulto

use,butinthiscaseseemsappropriate. Work onimprovedconductivity andtransparencyforTCOshasbeengoingonfor20yearsatleast,withnorealbreakthroughs.


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CounciltoPromoteCommercializationofZinc

OxideFilm

Company Activity

NipponKodoshi Manufacturesofbatterycomponents

TosaDenshi Assembleselectronicscomponents

ZNOLab

AresearchfirmfoundedbyKochiUniversityof

Technology

YamazakiGiken Manufacturesslicerequipment

Heiwagenshi Makespaperandfilm

HakuseiTech ProducesZnO

HenmiSlideRule

Manufacturersofsemiconductorindustry

equipment


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ITOAlternatives:

Conductive

Polymers

OrganictransparentconductorsofferthreemajoradvantagesoverITO: theyareinherentlyflexible,

theycanoftenbeeasilyprinted,andtheycostonlyafractionofthepriceofITO. Thatmeansthatthe

opportunities arethere,andunlike inthecaseofTCOs,therearemajorcorporatesponsorsofthisidea,

includingH.C.StarckandAgfa. Itisimportanttonotethatthesefirmsarealreadysellingthebasic

conductivecoating

for

other

applications.

They

are

thinking

in

terms

of

incremental

markets

and

do

not

needhugeopportunities tomaketheiractivitiesprofitable.

ButthesubstitutionofITOwithorganictransparentconductorshasnottakenoffasrapidlyas

NanoMarketshadexpectedatthetimeofpublishingourpreviousreportonITO. Atthetime,aFujitsu

touchscreenmadeusingtransparentconductivepolymerswasbeingwidelydiscussed.Sofar,however,

thisscreen,

while

commercialized,

does

not

seem

to

have

taken

off

in

the

marketplace

very

fast.

In

addition,theuseoforganictransparentconductors forOLEDlightingbytheOLLAteaminEuropeisstillnotarevenuegeneratingcombination.

AopenquestionistheresilienceofthiskindofplasticITOwhenexposedtolightingeneraland UV

lightinparticular. However,transparentorganicmaterialsmayfindconsiderableopportunities inthe

handheldelectronics

market

where

products

are

generally

short

lived

but

have

less

of

achance

in

the

televisiondisplaymarket,wheretheoppositeistrue.


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ITOAlternatives:

Nanomaterials

NanoMarketsstillbelieves thebiglongtermopportunityforawholesalereplacementof

ITOwouldhavetocomefromthenanomaterialssector,whichcouldmeansomekindof

carbonnanotubepreparationoracompletelyinorganicnanomaterial. Nanomaterialsshare

advantages

of

flexibility,

printability,

and

(usually)

cost

with

organics,

and

also

have

a

lot

of

yettobediscoveredpotentialbecausetheyarenotyetcompletelyunderstood.

Itistheirimmaturitythatprovidesforthepotentialofthiskindofmaterial,butofcourse,

thatimmaturitycarrieswithitalltherisksthatareusuallyassociatedwithnewmaterials

andpioneerusers.Despitetherecession,thereisalotof(mostly)encouragingactivityin

thisspace,

especially

from

Cambrios

and

Unidym

Often,butnotalways,thefirmsthatonefindsinthisareaarefirmsthatseeITO

substitutesasasteppingoffpointforother(andsometimeslarger)opportunitiesinthe

nanomaterialsspace. ITOsubstitutes,underthisview,representarelativelyeasymarketto

breakinto,

although

it

is

far

from

clear

that

this

is

the

case.


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Saving

ITO:

Manufacturing

I

NewmethodsforapplyingITOhavebeenproposedandtried,butforthemostpartthey

stilldonotmatchtheperformanceachievedthroughsputteringITO. However,typically,

lessthan30percentofasputteringtargetgetsappliedtoasubstrate;muchoftherestis

appliedtochamberwalls.

AlternativemethodsofapplyingITOseektoimproveononeormoreoftheseproblems,

andbecausethereissomethingofapentupdemandforthiskindoftechnology,

successfulapproachescanexpecttostartearningrevenuesfairlyfast. NewITO

manufacturingtechnologyhasthepotentialtoallowmanufacturerstocontinueusingITO

andthereby

reducing

the

need

for

risk

taking

at

the

materials

level.

Laserannealingmethodshavebeendemonstratedtoimprovethequalityofsputtered

filmswithoutthehighsubstratetemperaturesassociatedwithordinarycuring. Iftheycan

beextrapolatedtoalsoimprovethequalityofITOfilmsdepositedbyprinting,laser

annealingmay

provide

aroute

for

increased

use

of

printing

in

many

ITO

applications.


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Saving

ITO:

Manufacturing

II

Electrostaticsprayassistedvapordeposition(ESAVD)requireshightemperatureslike

manyofthestandardtechniquesofdepositingITO,butitoffersthepotentialforopen

atmosphereprocessing, perhapsleadingtotheeliminationofcostlysputteringequipment.

ITOinkshavebeenaroundforawhile,buthavehadanichestatus. Thereseemtobefew

firmsreallythrowingthemselvesintothisarea,soNanoMarketsdoesnotexpecthuge

revenuestoemergefromtheprintedITOsector.ITOwithnanoparticleinksisexpectedto

greatlyimproveefficiencyofITOuse(itisappliedonlywhereitisneeded),thusreducing

cost,whilealsopermittingwetcoating,whichcanbedoneatlowtemperatures. Ifsome

importantfirmreallygetsbehindprintedITO,perhapswewillseesignificantcommercializationofITOinks.

Nonetheless,alternativemethodsofdepositingITOcanonlygosofar. Intermsofcost,

evenwith ITOperfectlyappliedonlywhereitisneeded, itisstillanexpensivematerial,

becauseindium

is

(absent

some

massive

extractive

effort)

an

expensive

metal.

Hence

the

needformaterialsdevelopment.


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Saving

ITO:

Materials Mixes:Apartfrominks,onedirectioninmaterialsdevelopmentistomixITOwithother

materials:

SigmaTechnologiesoffersaninkcombiningITOandsilvernanoflakeswitha

conductive

polymer

binder,

which

is

claimed

to

be

more

conductive

than

conventional

nanosilver.

Analogs: MaterialsthataresimilartoITOhavealsobeenused:

Indiumoxideandindiumzincoxide(actuallyZndoped indiumoxide).Thelatterwas

developed

by

Idemitsu

about

a

decade

ago

as

a

material

more

easily

etched

than

crystallineITO. Theattractionofindiumzincoxide(IZO)isnotonlythat ithasbetter

etchcharacteristicsthancrystallineITObutalsothatithasalowerresistivitythan ITO.

Itcanalsobedepositedonunheatedsubstrates.

Twootherapproachesthatstilluseindiumareindiumantimonyoxide(IAO,but

actuallyantimonydopedindiumoxide)andantimonydoped ITO(IATO). These

materialsexhibitpromisingtransparencyand(especiallyforIATO)resistivity,butthey

bothstillcontainatleast90percentindiumoxidebyweight.


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Some

Conclusions ITOisnotfadingaway

Indiumprices

do

matter

ITOalternativesmattermostwhereITOisnotentrenched(PV,OLEDs)or

whereitisspecificallychallenged(touchscreen)

ITOisgettingbetterwithimprovedmanufacturing

Nanomaterialsmaybethewaveofthefuture


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Thankyou

ForAttending

Foradditional

information

and

reports

please

visit

www.nanomarkets.net


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