This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. 1 Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future.

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Transformative Scenarios Looking to the future of

civil society and philanthropy

São Paulo, BrazilJune 27, 2013

Mille Bojer, Reos

André Degenszajn, GIFE

Janaina Jatobá, Instituto C&A

WINGS Forum 2014Istanbul, Turkey

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Objectives for this session

To understand how transformative scenarios can be used to help articulate paths for civil society and to harness the power of networks

To share two stories and explore what we can learn from them about the situation of civil society in South Africa and Brazil

To start a dialogue about the value of scenario thinking in philanthhropy

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Warmup:

“If you could speak to a clairvoyant about the future of civil society in your country, what question would

you most like to ask them?”

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What are

transformative

scenarios?

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Scenarios:

“…structured, well considered stories describing a small set of possible

future contexts and how they might come about.”

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Predictions

Projections

Preferences

Options

Stories of possible futures that are:

RelevantIlluminate current circumstances and concernsLink into current mental models

ChallengingMake the invisible visibleQuestion current mental models

PlausibleFact-based and logicalImprove systemic understanding

ClearDistinctAccessible and memorable

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Five steps

1. Convene a team from the whole system

5. Act to transformthe system

3. Create the stories that

need to be told

4. Discover what can and must be

done

Source: Kahane

2. Observe what is

happening

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How transformative scenarios work

They transform

Our understanding

Our relationships

Our intentions

Our actions

Our language

This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Noncommercial-ShareAlike 3.0 Unported License. REOS INSTITUTE 2013 SCENARIOS CASE STUDY SERIES

Dinokeng ScenariosCollectively constructing a

sustainable future for South Africa

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• Seismic political shifts, with Jacob Zuma assuming the presidency in 2009. A time marked by uncertainty, power struggle and political reshuffling within the ANC.

• World in the midst of economic crisis, sending tremors through the local economy

• Large-scale migration from the neighbouring state of Zimbabwe and other countries in the region, and xenophobic attacks across the stressed area.

• The effects of climate change and economic crisis placing increasing pressure on agricultural production, rural sustainability, and food security.

• Unacceptably high levels of crime.

• The realities of constructing a new nation had revealed themselves as an entirely grittier and more complex task than its people had anticipated.

The Context in 2009

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The Scenarios

Engaged

Innefective

Disengaged

Effective

CHARACTER OF CIVIL SOCIETY

CAPACITY OF THE STATE

Collaborative and enabling state.Engaged and active citizenry

Interventionist and directive state.Dependent and compliant citizenry..

Corrupt and inefecttive state.Distrusting and self-protective citizenry

2009

2020 2020

2020

WALK TOGETHER

WALK BEHINDWALK APART

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• Placed the simple, crucial “Walk Together” insight about citizen re-engagement into the center of South African discourse. Example: The essence of the plan for the country prepared by the National Planning Commission, set up in 2010, focuses on engaging an active citizenry, promoting leadership through every aspect of society, and building a capable state.

• Crystallized a core debate among South African leaders about the role that the state should play in national development.

• Members of the Dinokeng team expanded their shared understanding of their situation and of their roles in it. They helped their system get unstuck and move forward.

• The large-scale dissemination of the Dinokeng scenarios was intended to regenerate active participation by South Africans in their new democracy. Dinokeng contributed to opening up and strengthening the country’s politics and its capacity to deal with its challenges.

The Impact

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In 2013, Reos entered into partnership with the D3 Articulation for Democracy, Dialogue and Rights and the General Secretariat of the Presidency of the Republic to co-convene a transformative scenarios process on the future of civil society in Brazil, labeled “Civil Society 2023”. 

Civil Society 2023: 

Four futures for Brazilian Civil

Society 

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Context for the Brazilian Civil Society

ScenariosWhat is the current reality of Civil Society in Brazil?

What were the big uncertainties in 2013?

What big questions were we holding about the future?

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The Impact so far

Individual level: Shift in perspective, new actions

Organizational level: Incorporation into strategic planning processes, impact on leaders,

Field level: Placing value on civil society, offering a new language and specific risks and opportunities, creation of a network, new partnerships among participating organizations; dissemination nationally and internationally

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Questions, comments, reflections

“How is this all relevant to your context?”

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For more information:

www.reospartners.com

[email protected]

www.dinokengscenarios.co.za

www.sociedadecivil2023.org.br

Transformative Scenario Planning: Working Together to Change the Future by Adam Kahane (Berrett-Koehler, 2012). Available from

Amazon.