HOW COLUMBIA COULD REPRESENT THE FUTURE OF AMERICA 11-10-10 The Way Forward Planning for the 21 st Century 1
HOW COLUMBIA COULD REPRESENT THE FUTURE OF AMERICA
11-10-10
The Way ForwardPlanning for the 21st Century
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America confronting a Great Reset2
―Economic systems do not exist in the abstract; they are embedded within the geographic fabric of the society – the way land is used, the locations of homesand businesses, the infrastructure that ties people, places and commerce together . . . A reconfigurationof this economic landscape is the real distinguishing characteristic of a Great Reset.‖
~ Richard Florida
A Comprehensive Plan must address our huge Challenges of Today
Identify the top Global & National Trends
Restore Prosperity
Transform/Reposition our Community for the realities of 21st C & the Next Economy
Next American Economy must be very different
Innovation Fueled
Export Oriented
Low Carbon
Metro Led
Entrepreneurially driven
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Brookings
Four General Forces for the 21st C4
Uncertainty & volatility: frequent, rapid, unexpected
change; innovations & disruptions
Complexity: rapid flow of people, money & ideas; more choices ,
more competition; more information to more people about more things
Diversity: broader geographic scope comes greater variety of
people & organization in culture, community, nation, & gender or race
Transparency & responsibility: digital tools with
higher expectations, higher standards to accomplish the public agenda
Super Corps
Vanguard
Organizations
The
Strategic
Value
of
Values &
Principles
Competitive differences
Public accountability via end-to-end responsibility
Rationale for thinking long-term
Common vocabulary & guidance for consistent decisions
Talent magnets & motivation machines
―Human‖ control systems –peer review & a self-control system
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S A F E G U A R D O U R H O M E S - - C R E A T E J O B S
G I V E K I D S A B R E A K – - B A L A N C E W O R K & L I F E
P R O T E C T V U L N E R A B L E F A M I L Y M E M B E R S - - T A X F A I R L Y
P R O T E C T O U R H E A L T H - - P R O T E C T O U R F U T U R E
S U P P O R T M A R R I A G E - – S A F E G U A R D O U R H O M E S
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Real Family Values 9 progressive policies to support our families
Transformational Enterprises: New Leadership for the Future
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Make values & vision part of the daily conversation
See your work as part of the daily conversation
Stress innovation: problems, solutions & ideas
Think in terms of networks
Create routines, consistent processes
Stress projects over position/title; help people have fun
Treat employees as though they were volunteers
Cultivate empathy & understand power of emotions
Allocate time for external service & connect to values
Global forces that will restructure the world economy for the foreseeable future
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The great rebalancing emerging-market countries
contribute to growth with middle class growth & innovation
The productivity imperative to power continued
economic growth through innovation
The global grid seeding new business models &
accelerating the pace of innovation
Pricing the planet resource productivity, substantial
clean-tech industries & regulatory initiatives
The market state governments under pressure to
maintain social stability in an increasingly globalized world
McKinsey
5 Phenomena of the Century (so far)
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1. Widespread recognition of how industry clusters work & how they further an urban economy
2. Richard Florida’s publishing of ―Rise of the Creative Class”- attract & retain talent & 21st C jobs
3. Rise of Asian cities as global commercial, manufacturing and financial hubs
4. The Green Revolution – the shift to more sustainable urban construction & sustainable design
5. Re-birth of urban-style living – 21st C lifestyles (green, more women working, gas prices, & cost of living )
All About Cities
5 Big Trends will shape the future decade:
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1- Rise and Fall of Nations (US & Europe falling, Asia rising)
2- Rise and Fall of Generations (Boomers falling, Gen Y rising)
3- Behavioral Modification of Organizations (social media-ization of business, health, education, politics)
4- Urbanization of world’s population
5- Global warming (winners & losers in the restructuring of the global economy)
Shaping Tomorrow
Restoring Prosperity
The
Scary
Truth
about the
Great
Recession
Can’t afford what was passed as the American Dream
Cannot run up debt equal to 122% of earnings
Cheaper places to live, high quality of life, livability
Long time before businesses, households, & government treasuries shake off the effects
In midst of re-casting the new economy
People will follow quality of living
Jobs will follow talented people
Cities with low cost of living will win
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We have long assumed that…12
We would always enjoy unlimited supplies of cheap oil.
We could always build our way out of congestion.
Places and buildings are disposable.
Americans with financial choices would never give up their cars or their backyards.
Consumption is good.
Being cheap was far more important than anything else we could name.
ceosforcities
We have long assumed that… continued
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We could always find new sources of labor to get the job done.
Our kids would grow up and stay close to home.
People are essentially locked in place. Only companies & the very rich were mobile.
When people do move, they move for jobs.
Homogeneity has no downside.
People would never return to old, decaying, vacant inner cities. And who cared anyway? Core cities no longer mattered.
The new realitieslook more like this:
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Gas is expensive and predicted to get more so – sooner than later.
We can’t build enough highways fast enough to significantly reduce time spent in traffic.
Places & buildings matter, & it’s important to get them right the firsttime.
Transit ridership is at its highest since the car became popular. empty nesters are downsizing as fast as they can, to find homes they can ―lock & leave‖
Labor, which for 40 years has been plentiful thanks to boomers, will tighten as boomers retire; there are no more college grads or women to balloon the labor force.
The new realities look more like this: continued
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It’s not just the rich who are mobile. Young people are far more mobile than we ever imagined. The more educated they are, the more mobile they are.
It’s not just about jobs anymore, and it is sure not about cheap. 64% of college-educated young adults say first they choose the city they want tolive in, then they look for a job.
No one wants to live in our core cities, right? Wrong. Young adults – that coveted labor force -- are now 30% more likely to live within a 3-mile radius of the central business district .
People in creative occupations are 53% more likely to live in close-in neighborhoods. Empty nesters are also headed downtown.
The old way of thinking?... The strength of core cities doesn’t matter to the region. We can leave the city to decline & the rest of the region will be fine.
A look at where we’re headed in the next decade . . .
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Climate change models
Energy options
Personalized medicine
The housing market
Mobile technology
Mass transit
Food & nutrition
In the home: Green
Commercial & real estate
Education & technology
The Republic
We must have strong Cities to have a strong America
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• Access to opportunity in the form of education & jobs, + breaking our dependence on oil
• Reducing carbon emissions
• Reversing the growing problem of obesity and
• Demonstrating that the American dream works best
• When we take full advantage of our diversity.
ceosforcities
Renewed prosperity hinges on . . .18
The ―spatial fix‖—the creation of new development patterns, new ways of living & working, & new economic landscapes –expand space & intensify our use
More massive & more intensive geographic pattern—the mega-region
Infrastructure that can undergird another round of growth &development - a better & faster information highway, high-speed rail
Make existing infrastructure far more efficient by using information technology to create ―smart‖ grids & highways
A new set of design principles to spark 21st economies, communities, societies, & ignite a more authentic, enduring prosperity
Denser, walkable, pedestrian-friendly areas with street fronts
& outdoor markets, cafes, flowers, small public parks, green spaces
Communities need to be very, very good at doing four key things:
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Developing, attracting & retaining talent
Connecting their citizens to opportunity, their city to the region & their region to the global economy
Understanding what makes their community distinctive & having the confidence to capitalize on it
Developing the capacity for innovation within government & within the broader community
Columbia needs to excel in areas most critical to urban success:
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The Talented City
Developing, maximizing, attracting & retaining talent
The Innovative City
Fostering innovation & entrepreneurship
The Connected City
Fostering connections that link people with ideas to talent, capital & markets; cities to regions; &
regions to the global economy
The Distinctive City
Capitalizing on local differences to build local economic opportunity
5 big (very big) ambitions that, together, Columbia can define a new American Dream:
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Opportunity: We will develop (& attract) all of our
talent & put all of our talent to work
Livability: We will all have access to beauty & nature
every day
Connectivity: We can meet our daily needs without
owning a car
Community: We can all participate in a robust public
life
Optimism: We believe that the future can be better for
each of us & all of us
10 Ways to Solve the Job Problem
Imagine a no-holds-barred ―summit‖ that comes up with ideas to solve both our job &environmental problems
1. More farms, less agribusiness
2. More repair, fewer product
3. More recycling, less mining
4. More renovations, less construction
5. More restoration, less destruction
6. More bike paths, fewer highways
7. More local businesses, fewer megastores
8. More dishwashing, fewer throw-aways
9. More education, less advertising
10. More clean energy, less fossil fuel
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4 concrete approaches for moving Columbia forward:
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• Building the infrastructure for 21st century jobs & innovation through investments in broadband Internet, cell service, & transportation networks
• Providing the capital to allow businesses to grow through tax incentives, micro-finance programs &expanding the seed capital fund
• Investing in education, universities & tech transfer programs to bring ideas from the classroom to the global marketplace
• Improving the culture in Columbia to stimulate entrepreneurship by making government more efficient, responsive & transparent (Smart Systems)
Challenge of Providing Services to the Public
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America’s Challenge
Now
is the time
to invest in
affordability
&
sustainability
Energy conservation
Green Building
Transit-oriented development
Urban regeneration
Renewable energy
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Columbia’sChallenges
For the
21st
Century
Graying of America
Browning of America
Rise of the single person households
Aging infrastructure
Aging suburbs
Climate change
Urban sprawl
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The Great Reset
a whole new economic landscape
and
massive movements of people
A True Reset transforms into simply the way we innovate & produce but also ushers in a whole new economic landscape. As it takes shape around new infrastructure & systems of transportation, it gives rise to new housing patterns, realigning where & how we live & work. Eventually it ushers in a whole new way of life . . .
Great Resets are defined not just by innovation but by massive movements of people. . . . These are times when talent flows out of some places & into others. . . . These Talent Resets thus shift the balance of power among cities & regions as well as among nations. Locations rise or fall based on their ability to attract, retain & productively use talent of all sorts – from brilliant innovators to unskilled laborers.
~ Richard Florida
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How will Columbia address The Great Reset . . .
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Improvements in efficiency & productivity, (IBM Smart City) & by the waves of innovation (―creative destruction‖)
Government should be proposing policies that will help to create a new geography & a new way of life to sustain & support it
As the new economy emerges, a new geography & newinfrastructure of living & working must come into being
Encourage a freer flow of ideas; encourage universities to turn new discoveries into companies that can grow & create jobs; & actively enable & attract entrepreneurs
Our education/workforce training systems need more dynamic approach to encourage m0re hands-on, interactive creativity
The Great Reset continued . . .
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Clusters of diverse creative businesses are increasingly important for creative industries with success dependent upon
soft (networking, knowledge, human capital, sense of identity, digital
networking, advanced workspace design, urban screens, other kinds of digital place-making, - all of which build on the fluid, face-to-face
interaction of physical space. ) &
hard infrastructure
Deep structural reforms to improve its supply side.
The quality of its financial sector, its physical infrastructure, as well as its human capital, all needserious economic & politically difficult upgrades
Federal Policy needs to encourage . . . 30
less home ownership
greater density of development
construction of smaller & more low-energy houses
free up capital that can be invested in the skill development, technology development, business innovation & economic structures
eliminate/cap mortgage interest tax deduction & other massive federal subsidies (secondary mortgage market, road construction & infrastructure) that undergird sprawling, economically inefficient, utterly wasteful suburban & exurban development
intense concentration in urban centers is key to buoyant modern economies
Cities need to plan for a Livable Community and a Healthy Community
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Columbia plans for future growth by . . .
identifying priority programs, policies, &strategies to improve the health* of Columbians while advancing the goals of protecting natural resources & agricultural lands, increasing the availability of affordable housing, improving infrastructure systems, promoting public health, planning sustainable communities, improving water quality, & meeting the state’s climate change goals.
* A ―Health in All Policies‖ Mindset (―people-centric‖)
Columbia plans by considering . . .32
Need to find our way back to some of the design principles of the traditional American city with a much broader spectrum of housing opportunities
Suburban sprawl came about as a result of two major subsidies: interstate system & the single-home mortgage deduction
Importance of creating pedestrian-friendly & ecologically sound communities, environments that that promote a sense of connectedness & place
To make the design of buildings & infrastructure create a sense of place, environmentally, culturally & socially
Top ten trends shaping the future of America's communities
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1. Placemaking - around the globe
2. Collaboration - key to making change
3. Greenplace - revitalization fights climate change
4. Placemaking - vibrant travel destinations
5. Libraries - new town squares
6. How cities stay lively 12 months a year
7. The Power of 10 leverages community assets
8. Public markets - a leg up in a down economy
9. The rise of community-based transportation planning
10. New developments create innovative models for destinations
A Healthy Community provides for the following through all stages of life:
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1. Meets basic needs of all
2. Quality & sustainability of environment
3. Adequate levels of economic, social development
4. Health and social equity
1. Meets basic needs of all
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Safe, sustainable, accessible & affordable transportation options
Affordable, accessible & nutritious foods
Affordable, high quality, socially integrated & location-efficient housing
Affordable, accessible & high quality health care
Complete and livable communities including affordable &high quality schools, parks & recreational facilities, child care, libraries, financial services & other daily needs
Access to affordable & safe opportunities for physical activity
2. Quality and sustainability of environment
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Clean air, soil and water, & environments free of excessive noise
Tobacco & smoke free
Green & open spaces, including agricultural landsMinimized toxics, GHG emissions & waste
Affordable & sustainable energy use
3. Adequate levels of economic, social development
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Living wage, safe & healthy job opportunities for all
Support for healthy development of children & adolescents
Opportunities for high quality & accessible education
4. Health and social equity
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Social relationships that are supportive & respectful
Robust social & civic engagement
Socially cohesive & supportive relationships, families, homes & neighborhoods
Safe communities, free of crime & violence
Building Livable Communities:Creating a Common Agenda
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Livability has become the framework for Congress, our administration, & our federal agencies to invest in the quality of life, economic competitiveness, & recovery of the American community
HUD, DOT, & EPA & Partners for Livable Communities will be engaging the full range of livability values: transportation, housing, & amenities: arts, cultural heritage, & design.
This blending of strategies has created a livability tool kit that city, state, & national leaders can use to revitalize the American community.
Brookings & EPA
Building Livable Communities:Creating a Common Agenda
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Provide transportation choices
Promote equitable, affordable housing
Increase economic competitiveness
Support existing communities
Leverage federal investment
Value communities & neighborhoods
Building Livable Communities41
Creating a better 21st century
means choosing to stop living
in the 20th century.
The New Economy
The features
of the
New Economy
Time is market in New Economy
Quality is the goal
Flexibility is the new standard
Knowledge is the new raw material
Networks provide collaborative advantage
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The New Economy values:43
• Economic regions, which provide a habitat for clustering
• Distinctive quality of life, which attracts knowledge workers
• Vital centers, which offer lively amenities & opportunities forInteraction
• Choice for living & working, which acknowledges increasingdiversity of career & life paths
• Speed & adaptability, which allow quick access to decisions& resources
• The natural environment as an important & compatibleelement of community.
The Economy of the Future will have the following characteristics:
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Balance - investment & employment, integrated clusters
Energy - maximizes conservation & alternative energy sources
Entrepreneurship – climate of ed, training, research & finance
International – integrated into world economy using our assets
Quality of Life – progressive planning & smart investment
Quality Work Force – educated, trained & adaptable to needs
Sustainable – built upon evolution of our strength for future gen
Technology – encourage innovation & create tech applications
Ideas Economy: Human Potential45
Global challenge: How do we educate billions of new people in the coming decades—& manage their successful entry into the global economy‖ —in age of high unemployment & aging demographics?
bringing together the smartest minds from government, academia & business
young workers demanding entirely new work environments
aging population that requires heavy resources
the nature of work & talent development must evolve dramatically
Five key trends for local Economic Development in the 2010s
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The arts as engines for the creative & experience economies
The growth of "free agent" nation
Ethnic minority/neighborhood communities as emerging markets
Green industries replacing gray industries
Transnational communities as market expanders, industry clusters
Entrepreneurs & homepreneurs, hobbypreneurs
Leonardo Vazquez. AICP/PP
The Future of Work is about . . . 47
1) Work becomes more about meaning & impact than repeatable tasks
2) 9 to 5 is so yesterday
3) Global sourcing goes on steroids enabling third world opportunity and growth
4) Free Agent Nation becomes a reality
5) Projects are more important than jobs
6) Teams assemble and reassemble based on the job to be done
7) Changing nature of work transforms our daily commute & transportation systems
The Future of Work . . . continued
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8) Industrial era organizations give way to purposeful networks
9) Everything we think & know about professions will change
10) Education is no longer K-16 but a life long commitment
11) Workforce & economic development are transformed become indistinguishable
12) Work becomes more self organized & less institutionally driven
13) Job titles are more about what you can do than meaningless status monikers
The Future of Work . . . continued
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14) Compensation is about performance outcomes not seniority
15) Entrepreneurship becomes democratized & the key economic driver
16) Work and social become indistinguishable
17) Getting better faster is imperative
18) Art & design become integral to work & value creation
19) Making things becomes important & interesting again
20) Passion drives meaningful work
Building Future Housing
Key Drivers
for the
21st Century City
Where & how people want to live Highly-sensitive & inter-related
system with high quality amenities Effectiveness of development &
management at a neighborhood level More adaptable & responsive to
change Innovation in the construction to be
encouraged Greater understanding of market, need
& demand, economic prospects & demographics is required
Where should strategic responsibility lie for planning & housing
Review of policy is required with a long term view
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FutureHousing
Demographic changes
driving new
Residential Development
Changing Household TypesGrowth in non-traditional-family households
Changing face of renters and owners
Impact of ImmigrationWhen, where and how immigrants live
Impact of Race/Ethnicity
Implications for Different Housing Types
Relationship to Employment Patterns
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Brookings
FutureHousing
Changing
Household
Types
The growth is in non-traditional-
family households
Singles
Unmarried couples or childless couples
Roommates
Single parents
Non-traditional-family
households
Willing to pioneer new areas
Less concerned about school districts
Looking to balance price and lifestyle
Married renters & single buyers
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HousingSummary:
Demographic Changes Driving
New Residential Development
Maturing Boomers:
Luxury homes/condos and some rentals
More affluent demand top-flight amenities and services
GenX not having children yet, but soon
Moving into ownership
Echo Boom generation:
Tomorrow’s renter--after 2008
Less affluent than GenX, doubling up, living with parents
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What will Columbia’s economy, landscape &infrastructure look like to compete in 21st C?54
21st Century cities are being held accountable to increasingly complex performance benchmarks. Competition around metrics like :
workforce readiness
emission reductions
mobility indices
quality of life
public health, &
geopolitical risk
are driving economic development in the international marketplace
By asking the key questions:
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1) Demographic Growth: Demographics will drive unprecedented demand for housing, jobs & public services.How will Columbia’s demographics change in a global economy?
2) Competitiveness: Seventy percent of U.S. economic output is located in metro regions. What should our community be doing to nurture economic clusters & embrace innovation?
Can we really just count on MU, state government, retail, banking & insurance companies to carry our economic prosperity into the future ?
The key questions . . . Continued
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3) Social Inclusion: What is necessary to care, train, & invest in citizens?How do social inclusion goals produce land use strategies?
4) The 2050 Good Life: How do shifting consumer preferences influence real estate products, mix of neighborhood uses & investment patterns?
How do we promote quality development ―up‖ & not just further out from the urban center ?
How do we help turn our suburban communities into successful 21st Century urban centers?
By writing a 21st C Comprehensive Plan for Columbia that will work
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I. How We Live (Livability)
A. Neighborhoods and Housing
B. Historic Preservation
C. Green Infrastructure: Open Space, Parks & Rec
D. Health & Human Services
II. How We Prosper (Opportunity)
A. Sustaining and Expanding the Economy
B. Building equity through Education, Job Training & Entrepreneurial Resources
A 21st C Comprehensive Plan . . . Continued58
III. Sustainable SystemsA. Community Facilities, Services & InfrastructureB. TransportationC. Resilience - Living with Water & Natural HazardsD. Environmental Quality
Note: Brookings Institute has released (4/2010) 39 policies -rebuilding physical assets to reorganizing work-force supports to collaborating at the regional scale - that can help strengthen its footing in an export-oriented, low-carbon & innovation-fueled world for communities to follow.
We need for smarter investments from the public & private sectors & how a shift to a low-carbon economy is vital for maintaining the country’s competitiveness.
And by Investing in . . .59
Residents
Entrepreneurs
Economic Strengths
Next Generation Infrastructure
. . . and Counting What Matters:
Business Income
Job Growth
Business Start-ups & Closures
Performance of our K–12 & Higher Education Systems
Opportunity for all
How will Columbia compete in the 21st Century? By . . .
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