The Value of Patented Inventions at the Extensive and Intensive Margin KITeS Conference: New Frontiers in the Economics and Management of Innovation Bocconi University, 22-23 March 2012 Alfonso Gambardella Joint with Dietmar Harhoff , LMU, Munich Bart Verspagen , Maastricht University, Maastricht
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The Value of Patented Inventions at the Extensive and Intensive Margin
The Value of Patented Inventions at the Extensive and Intensive Margin. Alfonso Gambardella Joint with Dietmar Harhoff , LMU, Munich Bart Verspagen , Maastricht University, Maastricht . KITeS Conference: New Frontiers in the Economics and Management of Innovation - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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The Value of Patented Inventions at the Extensive and Intensive Margin
KITeS Conference: New Frontiers in the Economics and Management of Innovation
More precise information about expected value fewer patents in the portfolio
Theory (4 of 4)
· (N V) relative to (M V) : screening (extensive vs intensive margin)
· Science N : precision of info (lower N)· Science M : more ideas (higher N)· Science V : net effect· Two models (which one dominates?)
· scientific (low N, high M)· empiricist (high N, low M)
),(),,(
ZMNNZMNVV
Patent Portfolio – Data (PatVal-EU)
· Population: all EPO patents with priority date 1993-1997· France (FR), Germany (DE), Italy (IT), Netherlands (NL),
Spain (ES), UK (GB) – later addition: Danmark (DK) and Hungary (HU)
· questionnaire sent to first inventor (if not available: any other inventor)
· questions on inventor biography, employer, invention process, invention characteristics
· 27,000 questionnaires mailed, about 9,000 responses (17.9% UK, 40.2% DE, 13.8% IT, 1.7% ES, 12.9% FR, 13.3% NL)
· For details: Giuri, Mariani et al. (2007) “Inventors and invention processes in Europe: Results from the PatVal-EU survey”, Research Policy, 36 (8), 1107-1127
Patent Portfolio – Data (N)
· Define portfolio: “group of patents related technically or in value”
· Survey question (to the inventor of the focal patent):· “How many patents in this portfolio”?
· Menu: 1; 2; 3-5; 6-10; 11-20; > 20
Patent Portfolio – Data (Value)· Survey question:
· “Suppose that on the day at which this patent was granted, the applicant had all the information about the value of the patent that is available today. In case a potential competitor of the applicant was interested in buying the patent, what would be the minimum price (in Euro) the applicant should demand?“
· We offer a menu of 10 value intervals: < 30K€; 30-100k€; …; to > 300M€
· Ask same question about portfolio· More intervals: 300M-1B; 1-3B; >3B
33
72
88
75
42
25
107
1 1
42
71
90
74
41
23
74
1 10
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
< 30K 30-100K
100-300K
300-1M 1-3M 3-10M 10-30M 30-100M
100-300M
> 300M
Value Classes (354 observations)
Freq
uenc
ies
Inventors
Managers
Patent Portfolio: Inventors vs Managers
GMM results
Many controls (including strategic patenting for N), 4638 obs., N, M endogenous
Conclusions
· In the invention process the extensive margin is important · Resources· Inventor’s experience (past successes, education)
· Can (almost) compensate the lack of science
· Importance of N when screening is hard … early entrepreneurship?
· You have to leave with unused ideas … or failed start-ups