The USSR in the Cold War. The Cold War (World War III) 1946-1953: Formation of the Cold War system 1953-1962: Competitive coexistence 1963-1978:

The USSR in the Cold War

The Cold War (World War III) 1946-1953: Formation of the Cold War system 1953-1962: Competitive coexistence 1963-1978: Détente 1979-1985: “Cold War II” 1985-1991: Collapse of the Cold War system

Winston Churchill’s speech at Fulton, Missouri, March 5, 1946:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNwrRdWOeUQ

The Cold War started unexpectedly early after the end of WWII – almost without a pause

It had three dimensions: Ideological Geopolitical Military

The ideological dimension

Global conflict between the two political-economic systems - capitalism and communism

The Three Worlds of the Cold War: The capitalist West, the communist East, and the

Third World (now called the Global South) East-West conflict:

Will capitalism survive – or will be replaced by some forms of socialism or communism?

In the Third World, massive struggles for national independence from Western colonial empires

The Global Left – a broad spectrum of political forces which were anything but united - consisted of: Communist states (the Soviet Union, People’s

Republic of China, and others) Communist parties around the world, most of them

supported by the USSR (biggest communist parties existing in Italy, France, and India)

Moderate Left forces (social democrats, labour movements, movements for democracy, etc.)

Anti-colonial forces in the 3d world

The geopolitical dimension

Before WWII, there were seven countries which were more powerful than the others: Britain, France, USA, USSR, Germany, Italy, Japan

The end of WWII saw the rise of two superpowers:

USA and USSR, each with a global mission of its own

A bipolar world – something unique in world history

Challenging each other

Containing each other

Trying to control other states to follow them

But the two superpowers also had to cooperate with each other to keep their power

Each needed the other as “The Other”

But both wanted to survive

This put limits to their confrontation

The military dimension

The 2 giants never engaged each other in a significant direct armed conflict between them

They fought wars by proxy

But they kept preparing for total military confrontation

Nuclear arms

Conventional armies and navies

Military alliances – NATO, the Warsaw Pact

Spy wars

New structures of militarism on both sides

The military-industrial complex

The national security state

1945-49 Who was on the offensive? Who was on the defensive? Who felt threatened and insecure? Who felt confident and aggressive?

Red dictators: Russia’s Stalin and China’s Mao, 1950

President Harry S. Truman (in office from 1945 to1952)

George Kennan, American diplomat, architect of the policy of Containment of Communism

Western Fears

The crisis of global capitalism: fear of revolution The shift to the Left in the politics of Western

countries: socialism on the agenda The upsurge of anti-colonial struggles in the Third

World The emergence of the USSR as the most powerful

state in Eurasia The US steps in to contain both Soviet power and

the growth of the Left in the West and in the Third World

Soviet Fears

Enormous human, social, and economic losses from the war

How to control society after the war The war as school of citizenship Mass exposure to European life The population of new territories under Soviet

control The legacy of terror

Fear of a united Western front against the USSR

Factors of Western self-confidence

The USSR is internally weak The US is a powerhouse US had enormous advantages in late 1940s:

50% of global production Nuclear monopoly Naval and air superiority Army on a par with USSR The architect of a liberal world order

Confidence that totalitarianism will be resisted by most people; the West should promote freedom

Factors of Soviet self-confidence The Soviet system passed the test of survival and

strength Soviet assets:

Control of territory: the dominant power in Eurasia A totalitarian system associated with progress Role in the Global Left, deriving its strength from

the crisis of capitalism Capitalism is in systemic crisis The rise of the Global Left - potential Soviet allies

Stalin’s worldview after 1945

Stalinism is fully vindicated The USSR is a working model of socialism The end of capitalism is near Red imperialism – promotion of communism by military and

paramilitary means Determination to control and manipulate foreign

revolutionary forces Readiness to make pragmatic deals with Western powers –

economic, diplomatic - putting ideology aside Massive investment in military power: preparation for new

wars Need for total control of society

Iosip Broz Tito, Yugoslav Communist leader who challenged Stalin

The Global Left: the postwar offensiveEUROPE Yugoslavia and Albania – Communists have come to

power on their own Greece, Italy, France – Communist parties may

come to power on their own Germany, Austria, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria –

defeated states in crisis; Soviet presence a major boost to local Communists

Poland – Soviet presence assures Communist takeover

Czechoslovakia – gradual Communist takeover from a strong domestic base, with Soviet help

Moderate, reformist Left makes major political gains in the West

The West was primarily concerned about survival and rebuilding of capitalism in Western Europe

USSR was primarily concerned about strategic control of Eastern Europe

The division of Europe, agreed in 1945, materialized: both sides mostly kept their commitments

The fate of Germany remained the one major bone of contention – but even there, the lines established in 1945 helped stabilize the situation

In Asia, it was an open-ended continental struggle – but not between Russia and America

Ho Chi Minh, leader of the Communist Party of Vietnam

ASIA: Indochina: Vietnamese Communists as the main anti-

colonialist force, proclaim Vietnam’s independence in 1945 China, 1945-49: Communists defeat Nationalists Korea, 1945: Communists control the North with Soviet help India, 1947: Independence won by nationalists supported

by communists Indonesia, Burma: nationalist-communist coalitions lead

anticolonialist campaigns Iran: the rise of a Communist-nationalist alliance Turkey: emergence of a strong Communist-led Left The Mideast

The establishment of Israel - with Soviet support The rise of Arab nationalism against Western colonial rule

What was the USSR’s role in the Global Left’s offensive? It set the stage by playing the main role in crushing

the Global Right in World War II It projected the image of successful socialism It installed, or helped install, Communist regimes in a

few countries It served as a counterweight to the US

But Moscow did not control the Global Left, except for a few elements

The two mirror-image myths of the Cold War: Western: myth of the world communist conspiracy

directed from Moscow Eastern: myth of the world struggle for peace and

socialism led by the Soviet Union Stalin could control only a small part of the Global

Left – in Eastern Europe He readily betrayed the Left whenever it suited his

geopolitical goals (Greece as an example) And he would try to engineer a left-wing takeover of

a country whenever he considered it necessary The postwar surge of the Global Left offered

opportunities to Stalin and his regime – but also posed major challenges

US responses to the Global Left’s offensive

The core dilemma: suppression or cooptation? The range of options: Suppression extreme: War against the USSR and the

Global Left Cooptation extreme: Social-democratic reforms of

capitalism, cooptation of the Left, accommodation with the Soviet Union as a status-quo power badly in need of healing.

A search for the middle ground – for effective combinations of both

American elites were split; foreign policy was heavily politicized and hotly contested; the strategy evolved from crisis to crisis

US strategy of “Containment of Communism”

The state-to-state level: Containment of the USSR. Nuclear deterrence, a chain of anti-Soviet alliances (NATO and others), economic attrition strategies, propaganda war against Communism, subversion

The transnational level: Containment of the Global Left. Revival of the global economy, the Marshall Plan, use of force, propaganda, subversion - and also cooptation, tactical alliances with elements of the Global Left on anti-Soviet platforms

A massive, complex, messy, costly, evolving strategy

First results of containment

1. It worked in Europe. Why? There was a geopolitical deal between Stalin and the

West (Yalta) Successful cooptation of the moderate Left by the US Stalin’s influence on Western Communists and his

policy of discouraging revolution

2. In Asia, these conditions were absent: No deal The US refused to co-opt the Left Asian Left-wing forces were mostly out of

Soviet control; Stalin was prepared to gamble (Korea)

3. Soviet totalitarianism hardens, a crackdown in Eastern Europe

By 1950, containment looked like a manifest failure:

The USSR rapidly rebuilt its economy (5 years instead of expected 15-20 years) and went nuclear

Eastern Europe was firmly under Soviet control China went Communist North Korea invaded the SouthThe image of Communism on the march; aggressive,

brutal, cunning, unstoppable, winning

Revolt of the American Right against failing Cold War policy: charges of treason

Senator Joe McCarthy (R.- Wisconsin)

Winter of 1952-53 War in Korea a bloody stalemate New US President, Dwight Eisenhower, threatens

to use nuclear weapons to achieve victory in Korea

Stalin prepares for war with the West, steps up repression, launches an anti-Semitic campaign

The world is inching towards nuclear war http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=tmWBY283o5s&feature=PlayList&p=BB41FCAEC0851BA9&index=13

There were several moments when the world was within a few steps from nuclear war

Nuclear weapons: can you use them to win a war?

War-fighting vs. deterrence

The balance of terror

The nuclear stalemate

From an uncontrolled arms race to arms control and disarmament

The era of arms control began in 1963 with the US-Soviet-British treaty to ban all, except underground, tests of nuclear weapons

A system of treaties was developed in the 1960s-1990s to make nuclear war less likely

Stalin died on March 5, 1953… http://www.youtube.com/watch?

v=T-EwVVm89og&feature=related

Stalinism was unviable

--Extreme degree of state control over society – hard to maintain, permanent emergency rule

--War was no longer on the horizon; capitalism was stabilizing: the challenges of peace and prosperity

--Communist elites needed more normal, stable regimes in which they would be secure from challenges both from the dictator and from the people

Following Stalin’s death, his successors (Malenkov, Bulganin, Khrushchev) began to move away from the most extreme of Stalin’s policies:

--Signaled to the West about peaceful coexistence and Soviet willingness to bring about a truce in Korea

--Security police was purged and put under Party control

--The anti-Semitic campaign was terminated

--Release of political prisoners (estimated number – 1.7 mln.) began: the process took over 3 years

--It was the beginning of “The Thaw” (term was coined by a Soviet writer who wrote a novel with such a title)

Georgiy Malenkov, Premier, 1953-55

Survivors (L to R): Foreign Minister Vyacheslav Molotov, Premier Nikolai Bulganin, Communist Party Secretary Nikita Khrushchev, Geneva, 1955

Nikita Khrushchev with Stalin in 1938

Nikita Khrushchev, top Soviet leader: 1953-64

1953-1964: THE THAW

End of the Great Terror Peace overtures to the West First steps towards reforms in USSR and Eastern Europe 1956:

The 20th Congress of the Soviet Communist Party: Khrushchev’s secret speech denounces Stalin

Upheaval in Poland The Hungarian revolution and its suppression

1957: Stalinists attempt to overthrow Khrushchev 1961: Khrushchev renews his anti-Stalinist campaign; new

Party programme promises the beginning of full communism within 20 years

1962: The Cuban missile crisis. The Novocherkassk massacre

1964: Khrushchev is deposed by conservatives

Western pop culture seeps in: http://www.dailymotion.com/video/

x6ufqm__shortfilms

Leonid Brezhnev, top Soviet leader, 1964-82

1964-1985: THE CONSERVATIVE ERA 1964: Leonid Brezhnev becomes the head of the Soviet Communist

Party 1965:

Limited market reforms announced in USSR First public trials of dissidents

1966: Hungary introduces New Economic Mechanism 1968:

Protests and repression in Poland The Prague Spring and its suppression

1969: The Sino-Soviet military conflict 1970: In Poland, worker protests lead to the fall of Gomulka 1971-72: The start of détente between the USSR and the West 1979: Détente is over; the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan 1980-81: The rise of Polish Solidarity; martial law is imposed 1982: Brezhnev’s death 1982-85: The leadership succession crisis 1985: Mikhail Gorbachev becomes General Secretary

Detente

The term “détente” was first used by French President Charles de Gaulle in the early 1960s: Relaxation of East-West tensions Peaceful coexistence

The core idea: despite the profound differences between the capitalist and communist systems, war is not inevitable, there are mutual interests which can be best served by cooperation in: Avoiding a major war; pursuing arms control and

disarmament Joint approaches to regional conflicts Trade and investment

In a broad sense, détente started right after Stalin’s death. Several cycles of tension-relaxation from 1953 to 1991

Important threshold: the 1963 Test Ban Treaty Reached a mature, institutionalized stage in 1971-

75 1971: US recognizes the People’s Republic of China 1972: Settlement of the German Question 1972: The SALT-1 Treaty 1973: The US-Soviet trade agreement 1975: The Helsinki Final Act on Security and

Cooperation in Europe

The Kitchen Debate: US National Exhibition in Moscow, summer 1959

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VPWG1i6YqVo&feature=related

1961: Khrushchev and Kennedy meet in Vienna

Cuban Missile Crisis: JFK addresses the nation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oM2N8PpyJaI

Khrushchev and Kennedy Reformers, dynamic leaders who promoted change

and took risks Ideological warriors, optimistic about their systems’

prospects Almost went to war in 1962, then laid the foundation

of the arms control system Kennedy was killed in 1963, Khrushchev overthrown

in 1964 Brezhnev and Nixon

Conservatives, preoccupied with order and stability Less ideological, more pragmatic; defensive about

their systems Building on what was achieved in the previous

decade

Changes in the global balance of power: 1950s-1970s

The nationalism-communism nexus in the Third World fuelled decolonization in the 1950s-1970s

Until the mid-1970s, the US continued to confront it as a major global threat in a futile struggle

America deadlocked, the war and domestic upheavals produce a profound political crisis at home, loss of influence abroad

The conservative-led USSR benefits from American setbacks by: Continuing to support radical nationalists in the Third World; Maintaining tight control over Eastern Europe; Building up Soviet military potential; And developing détente-type relations with the West

The Nixon-Kissinger reform of US foreign policyRecognize the limits of American power: retrenchment

and maneuvre “Vietnamization” Deal with the domestic crisis in the US Arrange a new balance of power by recognizing

Communist China and playing “the China card” against Russia

Appeal to Soviet conservatism: treat the USSR as a status-quo force; offer it incentives for acting like one

Arms control for containment and stability Continued confrontation with the Left in the Third

World (1973: Chile)

1972: Nixon in Moscow with Brezhnev

Brezhnev and Nixon in Crimea, May 1972

Things that worked: Arms control Normalization of US relations with China European security strengthened Failures: The US-Soviet trade deal was torpedoed by US

Congress:1973 Nixon’s authoritarianism ultimately led to his defeat

and resignation: 1974 US defeat in Vietnam: 1975Overall impression of a shift in international balance of

power against the USA

Brezhnev felt confident Soviet conservatism seemed to work better than US

conservatism (Nixon lost power) USSR seemed to get stronger and more influential

in world affairs High oil prices helped the Kremlin put off necessary

reforms But:

The Soviet system was stagnant and increasingly dysfunctional

The decolonization wave in the Global South was coming to an end

But the Soviet system was in a state of deepening crisis

The economy, devoid of a market mechanism, run by a massive bureaucracy, burdened with colossal military spending (at least 25% of the GDP), was slowing down

Incomes stagnated

Thirst for freedom and the logic of consumer society stimulated the rise of dissent throughout the USSR and Eastern Europe

Andrei Sakharov (1921-1989)

Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn (1918-2008)

The Carter Presidency (1977-80) US tried to regain initiative against the USSR Continued adherence to détente, but also: Raising the issue of human rights as a challenge to

communist states Growing concerns about Soviet military buildup and

aid to Third World Left By the end of 1979, Carter’s foreign policy was in

shambles The Iranian revolution, Soviet invasion of

Afghanistan, and conservative revolt in the US buried détente. Talk of a “Second Cold War”

Losses in the Cold War (estimates): - Over 20 mln. died in local wars, mostly between

the Global Left and the West - Victims of totalitarian regimes in the Soviet Union

(1929-1953), Communist China (1950s-1970s), other communist states : 60 mln. people died (est.) as a result of policies of

forced modernization and political repression Total: 80 mln. lives At least 80% of the human losses were civilian Massive waste of resources Unprecedented growth of technologies of

destruction The degradation of natural environment Stymied democracy and economic development