The Tech Several Challenges Going Forward Know Zone Lecture The Tech 5 May 1999 Gordon Bell Microsoft Corporation.

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Several Challenges Going Forward

Know Zone Lecture

The Tech

5 May 1999

Gordon Bell

Microsoft Corporation

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The two great inventions The computer (1946… realised in 1948).

Computers supplement and substitute for all other info processors, including humans– Memories come in a hierarchy of sizes, speeds, and prices…

the challenge is to exploit them– Computers are built from other computers in a iterative,

layered, and recursive fashion

The Transistor (1946) and subsequent Integrated Circuit (1957).– Processors, memories, switching, and transduction are the

primitives in well-defined hardware-software levels– A little help from magnetic, photonic, and other transducer

technologies

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Transistor density doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year– Chip density – Microprocessor speed

Exponential growth:– The past does not matter– 10x here, 10x there … means REAL change

PC costs decline faster than any other platform– Volume and learning curves– PCs are the building bricks of all future

systems

Moore’s First Law

128KB128KB

128MB128MB

200020008KB8KB

1MB1MB

8MB8MB

1GB1GB

19701970 19801980 19901990

1M1M 16M16Mbits: 1Kbits: 1K 4K4K 16K16K 64K64K 256K256K 4M4M 64M64M 256M256M

1 chip memory size1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)( 2 MB to 32 MB)

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Bell’s Law of Computer Class Formation

Technology enables two evolutionary paths:1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .621.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

MiniMini

Handheld ??Handheld ??TimeTime

Mainframes (central)Mainframes (central)

PCs (personals)PCs (personals)Lo

g p

rice

Lo

g p

rice

WSsWSs

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•

Bell’s Nine Computer Price Tiers

Super server: costs more than $100,000“Mainframe”: costs more than $1 million

an array of processors, disks, tapes, comm ports

1$: embeddables e.g. greeting card

10$: wrist watch & wallet computers

100$: pocket/ palm computers

1,000$: portable computers

10,000$: personal computers (desktop)

100,000$: departmental computers (closet)

1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)

10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)

100,000,000$: national centers

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Platform evolution: What do they do that’s useful?

How do they communicate?

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Tera

Giga

Mega

Kilo

11947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Extrapolation from 1950s: 20-30% growth per year

StorageStorageBackboneBackbone

MemoryMemoryProcessingProcessing

Telephone ServiceTelephone Service17% / year17% / year

????

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Gains if 20, 40, & 60% / year

1.E+21

1.E+18

1.E+15

1.E+12

1.E +9

1.E+61995 2005 2015 2025 2035 2045

20%= 20%= TeraopsTeraops

40%= 40%= PetaopsPetaops

60%= 60%= ExaopsExaops

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Going forward… Seven challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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Turing test: you can’t tell whether you are communicating with a person or a machine using:

Text… limited context Voice

– context– speech to text and text to speed

Visual image and voice– more context– synthesis of dynamic, human images

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Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

Campus,Campus,including SANsincluding SANs

HomeHome

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

CarCar

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“Everything will be in Cyberspace” Is this a challenge? goal?

quest? fate?… or Cyberization enables

new computing platforms thatrequire new networks to connect them – Infrastructure supports the content– Three evolutionary dimensions

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Cyberization: interface to all bits and process information

Coupling to all information and information processors

Pure bits e.g. paper, newspapers, video Bit tokens e.g. money, stock State of: places, things, and people State of: physical networks

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Atoms vs Electrons for bits

Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)people know computers knowbricks & mortar anywhere

(personnel/clients)office hours anytimedatabase & reports web access for review

and transactionsletter & fax email & web accessphone email, voice & video mailpersonal visits videophone / videomailsignature authenticated imagesenvelopes digital envelopes / storevoice, text are unique bits take on any form

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By January 2001 there will NOT be 1 billion people on the “net”.

Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K

Bet: Nicholas Negroponte $1K:$5K… it happens by 2002.

Also $1 T of commerce by 2001.

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Why this is the keystone bet! It determines the market

– for networks– for access devices… especially PCs

It says something about the utility– commerce – communication– entertainment

Increased network capacity & ubiquity enables– phones– videophones– television– serendipity

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Internetters growth

‘95 ‘96 ‘97 ‘98 ‘99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘04

Internet GrowthInternet Growthextrapolated at 98% per yearextrapolated at 98% per year

World PopulationWorld Populationextrapolated at 1.6% per yearextrapolated at 1.6% per year

12000

10000

8000

6000

4000

2000

0

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Cyberspace: A spiraling quest in 3D real space

ComputationComputation

CommunicationCommunication CyberizationCyberizationPrograms, Content & messages

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DataData

Cyberspace: one, two or three networks? in 2005, 2010, 2020

TelephonyTelephony

TelevisionTelevision

Will we have gateways?

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Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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Atoms that represent money, ownership, … risk

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New or old money… it’s just bits

Prepaid

Credit

Cash

Check

ATM /

Prepaid

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Put those checks & statements in Cyberspace or eliminate them!

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Buying & selling stock: what a pain!Faxes? (Electronic signatures are legal in Georgia.)

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Paperless transactions: put them all in Cyberspace

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Atoms vs Electrons for financial bits

Atoms (mass) Electrons, etc. (massless)money database, smart card,

credit card, debit cardstatements web accessbills / checks bill present. / check freecoupons cyber-coupons

stock database, webstatements, reports web access, email +company infor, analyst reports, etc.private placements web access, emailtrade confirmation direct tradesmail voting on line voting

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Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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Telepresence… being there while being here, at another time, and with time scaling

Telepresentations Telemeetings and telecollaboration The “work”

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Motivation:Telepresentations

• Presenter and/or audience telepresent

NOT: meeting or collaboration settings

Forget the nasty social issues!

Mostly one-way

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TelepresentationElements

Slides Audio Video Script,

text comments, hyperlinks,etc.

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Telepresentations:The Essentials

Slide and audio a must Add some video

(low quality) to make us feel good

Storage and transmission costs low

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Telepresentations:The Killer App

Increased attendance & lower travel costs

Practical and low-cost NOW e.g. ACM97 - 2,000 visitors in real

space, 20,000 visitors on Internethttp://research.microsoft.com/acm97

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What about telecollaboration?

… working together at a distance

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Conference Rooms with Teleconferencing

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Telework: it’s the sound, screens, and bandwidth, stupid

http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/http://research.microsoft.com/barc/GBell/

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Mobile videophone

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Honda Robot

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People surrogates

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““

””

By April 1, 2001 videophones will ship in 50% of the PCs and be in use.

Gordon Bell vs Jim Gray1996 (one paper,

loser gets fed)

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Living in Cyberspace… the infrastructure

being always connected is essential

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Intrastructure

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SOHO (small office, home office)network computing environment

NT Server for: comm/network, POTS/IP

gateway, file, print, compute

IP Dial tone (Internet, phone, videophone) >1.5 Mbps

Phone

POTS (legacy services)

*NC, NetPC, Xterm, etc.

...

LAN

PC NC*PC...

PhonePhone

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Attending simultaneous meetings

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Telepresence Challengehold a meeting of type, m

university or technical course

interview, staff meeting, co-ordination, board meeting, annual meeting, “town hall”,

with p, distributed persons

with as much interactivity and feeling

such that people prefer being telepresent

meetings are provably more productive

meetings will evolve to be asynchronous versus traditional synchronous

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Milli-bill, another type of telepresence...

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Fujitsu 42” plasma panel

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MilliBill

Large, general purpose panel– Paintings, photos, videos, a new art

medium, and – even TV– Becomes a true “window” to anywhere

Voice interface Evolves to cover entire wall so that

everyone can be by a “window”

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Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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The Guardian Angel

Knows about your state of health.

Has the latest medical knowledge.

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Your husband just died, … here’s his black box

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Steve ManninCyberspace

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Libretto, .5mm pencil

PCS; Pilot

Libretto PS, Ricoh Camera; Swiss Army Knife

Compass; altimeter

Not shown: ECG; GPS;

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A device that would have saved me from a heart attack

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BAN, PAN or whatever for people networks

Temperature monitoring with the flu Saved me from a heart attack Where is the person, exactly… a baby

sitter Let’s interact… ala Barney

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MedtronicsImplanted

Cardioplasticstimulator

cardio- recorder

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Moore’s law is less important than MEMS

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4 Experts Predict BionicsWired, February 1997

Hi-Fi Cochlear Implants 2005

Bionic Limbs 2013

Artificial Vision 2040

Bionic Person (unlikely)

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Audio, pix, T, P, ECG, location, physiological parameters…1 GB

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Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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The Cyber Admin or the prosthetic memory…

When we can store everything we’ve: read/written, heard/said, seen/acted, plusphysical parameters.

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What does Cyber Admin do? Captures the creation of all

personal/professional information Stores and organizes Retrieval is the challenge

– recalling readings, conversations, presentations, images

– helps the “guardian angel” What are the apps? when we can do this?

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Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to compute ... There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing complicated thingsWith millions of people doing complicated things..

memex … stores all one’s books, records, and memex … stores all one’s books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to textSpeech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography

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My project … putting my legacy and future bits in Cyberspace

http://www.research.microsoft/ Personal paper documents

– Books (encoded by CMU), papers, articles, memos, notes, email, notebooks, drawings

Encode video and audio lectures Current electronic media

– email, files, papers, photos (now digital)– voice notes and records

Would like to capture photos and slides

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The other side… finding and getting the bits

out of Cyberspace Retrieval is the next challenge

– Database(s)– Indexers (Magnifi, Virage, etc.)– Icons so people can help the computer

Being able to see and use electronic bits as well as paper bits will have to wait until display technology appears

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Capture and encoding

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HP Digital Sender… color document scanner

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Sony voice notes recorder…

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Evolving cameras to capture images and voice notes

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A word about storage… CDs hold 6 “near VHS quality” videos (300 Kbps)

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Coexisting with Paper Paper is the best GUI (screen dump) without peer

– portable: read anywhere, anyway, anytime– contrast ratio– resolution (3-30x screens)– form factor, weight– ubiquity, cost, infrastructure– with good OCR, it is a loss-less medium

For many documents, paper is very expensive– large and multiple documents are heavy– hard to transmit– difficult to store (only access is via people)– computer cannot access them

Goal: use paper as a loss-less “bit” medium

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Book page

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Computer-Paper Co-existence

Goals for encoding paper for the computer– Handling must be as easy as discarding it– Input, Identify, OCR, Index, save, and retrieve

in every possible context– Interface: unobtrusive and humane

Put all documents in Cyberspace– Ubiquitous scanners are key!– Totally eliminate the need for copiers– Totally eliminate the need for file cabinets

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Storing all we’ve read (written), heard (said), & seen (participated)Human data-types /hr /day (/4yr) /lifetimeread text, few pictures 200 K 2 -10 M/G 60-300 G

speech text @120wpm 43 K 0.5 M/G 15 Gspeech @1KBps 3.6 M 40 M/G 1.2 T

video-like 50Kb/s POTS 22 M .25 G/T 25 Tvideo 200Kb/s VHS-lite 90 M 1 G/T 100 T

video 4.3Mb/s HDTV/DVD 1.8 G 20 G/T 1 P

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Now how do you find or use the rich information

The system must: locate, retrieve, visualize, order, up load the corporation’s IP assets (text, proposals, images, videos, presentations, etc.) … with appropriate controls.

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Thumbnails to aid retrieval

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ColorB&W

BrightnessContrast

Volume

Speech-Music

Meta Information

Image Recognition for ObjectsSpeech RecognitionImage Recognition, Lexical CuesTranscriptsClose CaptionLexical Analysis

Context Relevance

ViewingPreviews - Power Point, PDF, Video, Sound, Artwork

SmartMedia Technologies

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Virage Video Cataloger

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Going forward… challenges

Turing test... Voice or Video Avatarany conversation

Everything will be in Cyberspace

Electrons, etc. replace atoms for “money”, “ownership”… “risk”

Telepresence

The Guardian Angel for health

The Cyber Admin for personal use

Infinitely scalable systems

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Billions Of ClientsNeed Millions Of Servers

MobileMobileclientsclients

FixedFixedclients clients

ServerServer

SuperSuperserverserver

ClientsClients

ServersServers

All clients All clients networked to networked to serversservers May be nomadicMay be nomadic

or on-demandor on-demand Fast clients wantFast clients want

fasterfaster servers servers Servers provide Servers provide

Shared DataShared Data ControlControl CoordinationCoordination CommunicationCommunication

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Cluster: Shared What? Shared Memory Multiprocessor

– Multiple processors, one memory– all devices are local– DEC, HP, IBM, Sequent, SGI, SUN

Shared Disk Cluster– an array of nodes– all shared common disks– VAXcluster + Oracle

Shared Nothing Cluster– each device local to a node– ownership may change– Tandem, SP2, Wolfpack

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SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms

Standard (I.e. commodity) platform The SAN (System Area Network) standard

makes the network ubiquitous … and great! Common operating system for platform,

reducing vendor and customer costs,and enables affordable, standard apps

Cluster technology Apps are TRANSPARENT!!!

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SNAP Systems circa 2000Local & global data commworld

ATM & Ethernet:to PC, workstation,

& servers

Wide-area global

ATM network

Legacymainframe &minicomputer

servers & terminals

Centralized& departmental

servers built fromPCs

scalable computers built from PCs & SANs

TC=TV+PChome ...

(CATV or ATM or satellite)

???

Portables

A space, time (bandwidth), generation, and reliability scalable environment

Person servers (PCs)

MobileNets

Telecomputersaka Internet

Terminals

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Scaling dimensions include:

reliability… including always up number of nodes

– most cost-effective system built from best nodes… PCs with NO backplane

– highest throughput distributes disks to each node versus into a single node

location within a region or continent time-scale I.e. machine generations

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Intel/Sandia: 9000x1 node Ppro

LLNL/IBM: 512x8 PowerPC (SP2)

LNL/Cray: ?

Maui Supercomputer Center– 512x1 SP2

U.S. Tax Dollars At WorkASCI for Stockpile Stewardship

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192 HP 300 MHz

64 Compaq 333 MHz

• Andrew Chien, CS UIUC-->UCSD • Rob Pennington, NCSA• Myrinet Network, HPVM, Fast Msgs• Microsoft NT OS, MPI API

“Supercomputer performance at mail-order prices”-- Jim Gray, Microsoft

The Alliance LES NT Supercluster

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The Grid:Blueprint for a New Computing InfrastructureIan Foster, Carl Kesselman (Eds), Morgan Kaufmann, 1999

Published July 1998; ISBN 1-55860-475-8 22 chapters by expert authors

including: – Andrew Chien, – Jack Dongarra, – Tom DeFanti, – Andrew Grimshaw, – Roch Guerin, – Ken Kennedy, – Paul Messina, – Cliff Neuman, – Jon Postel, – Larry Smarr, – Rick Stevens, – Charlie Catlett– John Toole– and many others

http://www.mkp.com/grids

“A source book for the historyof the future” -- Vint Cerf

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Infinite or indefinite parallelism… use installed machines

10,000 nodes in 1998 or 10x Increase Assume 100K nodes 10 Gflops/10GBy/100GB nodes

or low end c2010 PCs Communication is first problem… use the

network Programming is still the major barrier Will any problems fit it

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Challenge: Is it possible to use millions of computers for a single, large scale project?

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The end