1 Laws of Cyberspace Jim Gray Microsoft Research with help from Gordon Bell, Nathan Myrvold and laws by Bell, Moore, Gates, Joy, Gilder, Grove, Grosch,

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Laws of Laws of CyberspaceCyberspace

Jim GrayMicrosoft Research

with help from Gordon Bell, Nathan Myrvold

and laws by Bell, Moore, Gates, Joy, Gilder, Grove, Grosch, Metcalf, Mryvold,

Talk presented 10/9/98 at International University, Bruchsal Germany

http://research.Microsoft.com/~Gray/talks/Laws_of_Cyberspace.ppt

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Computer Industry Laws Computer Industry Laws (rules of (rules of thumb)thumb)• Metcalf’s law

• Moore’s First Law• Bell’s Computer Classes (7 price tiers)• Bell’s Platform Evolution• Bell’s Platform Economics• Bill’s Law• Software Economics• Nathan’s 4 Laws of Software• Gilder’s Law of the Telcosom.• Grove’s law (1 and 2)• Moore’s second law• Is Info-Demand Infinite?• The Death of Grosch’s Law

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1. We get more1. We get more

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2. New overtakes old2. New overtakes old

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3. Things get cheaper3. Things get cheaper

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4. Newer & cheaper wins?4. Newer & cheaper wins?

Old

NewNew

Old

NewNew

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Metcalf’s LawMetcalf’s LawNetwork Utility = UsersNetwork Utility = Users22

• How many connections can it make?• 1 user: no utility• 1K users: a few contacts• 1M users: many on net• 1B users: everyone on net

• That is why the Internet is so “hot”• Exponential benefit

8

Moore’s First LawMoore’s First Law

128KB

128MB

20008KB

1MB

8MB

1GB

1970 1980 1990

1M 16Mbits: 1K

4K 16K

64K

256K 4M 64M256M

1 chip memory size ( 2 MB to 32 MB)

•XXX doubles every 18 months 60% increase per year–Micro Processor speeds–chip density–Magnetic disk density–Communications bandwidthWAN bandwidth approaching LANs

•Exponential Growth:

–The past does not matter

–10x here, 10x there, soon you're talking REAL change.

•PC costs decline faster than any other platform

–Volume & learning curves

–PCs will be the building bricks of all future systems

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Bumps in the Moore’s Law RoadBumps in the Moore’s Law Road

• DRAM:•1988: US Anti-Dumping rules•1993-1995: ?? price flat

• Magnetic Disk•1965-1989: 10x/decade•1989-1996: 4x/3year!

100X/decade

1

100

10000

1000000

1970 1980 1990 2000

$/MB of DRAM$/MB of DRAM

.01

1

100

10,000

1970 1980 1990 2000

$/MB of DISK$/MB of DISK

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National Semiconductor Technology National Semiconductor Technology Roadmap (size)Roadmap (size)

1

10

100

1000

10000

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Mem

ory

siz

e (M

bit

s/ch

ip)

& M

tran

sist

ors

/ ch

ip

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

Mem(MBytes)

Micros Mtr/chip

Line width

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National Storage Technology (disks) Roadmap National Storage Technology (disks) Roadmap (size, density, speed)(size, density, speed)

1

10

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1995 2000 2005

3.5" Cap. (MBytes)1.3" Cap. (MBytes)

Data Rate (MBps)

Data Rate (MBps)

Density (Kbpsi)

Density (Kbpsi)

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Gordon Bell’s 1975 VAX planning model... Gordon Bell’s 1975 VAX planning model... He didn’t believe it!He didn’t believe it!

System Price = 5 x 3 x .04 x memory size/ 1.26 (t-1972) K$

5x: Memory is 20% of cost 3x:DEC markup.04x: $ per byte

He didn’t believe:The projection500$ machine

He couldn’t comprehend implications

Costs declined > 20% Single user systems didn’t come down as fast, unless you consider PDAsVAX ran out of address bits!

0.01K$

0.1K$

1.K$

10.K$

100.K$

1,000.K$

10,000.K$

100,000.K$

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

16 KB 64 KB 256 KB 1 MB 8 MB

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Gordon Bell’s Seven Price TiersGordon Bell’s Seven Price Tiers

• 10$: wrist watch computers• 100$: pocket/ palm computers• 1,000$: portable computers• 10,000$: personal computers (desktop)• 100,000$: departmental computers (closet)• 1,000,000$: site computers (glass house)• 10,000,000$: regional computers (glass castle)

SuperServer: Costs more than 100,000 $“Mainframe” Costs more than 1M$Must be an array of processors,

disks, tapescomm ports

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Bell’s Evolution of Computer ClassesBell’s Evolution of Computer ClassesTechnology enable two evolutionary paths:

1. constant performance, decreasing cost2. constant price, increasing performance

??Time

Mainframes (central)

Minis (dep’t.)

PCs (personals)Lo

g P

rice

WSs

1.26 = 2x/3 yrs -- 10x/decade; 1/1.26 = .81.6 = 4x/3 yrs --100x/decade; 1/1.6 = .62

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Region/Region/IntranetIntranet

CampusCampusHome…Home… buildingsbuildings

BodyBody

WorldWorld

ContinentContinent

Everything cyberizable will be in Everything cyberizable will be in Cyberspace and covered by a Cyberspace and covered by a

hierarchy of computers!hierarchy of computers!

Fractal Cyberspace: a network of … networks of … platforms

Cars… Cars… phys. nets phys. nets

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Many little beat few bigMany little beat few big

Smoking, hairy golf ballSmoking, hairy golf ball How to connect the many little parts?How to connect the many little parts? How to program the many little parts?How to program the many little parts? Fault tolerance?Fault tolerance?

$1 $1 millionmillion $100 K$100 K $10 K$10 K

MainframeMainframe MiniMiniMicroMicro NanoNano

14"14"9"9"

5.25"5.25" 3.5"3.5" 2.5"2.5" 1.8"1.8"1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP1 M SPEC marks, 1TFLOP

101066 clocks to bulk ram clocks to bulk ram

Event-horizon on chipEvent-horizon on chip

VM reincarnatedVM reincarnated

Multi-program cache,Multi-program cache,On-Chip SMPOn-Chip SMP

10 microsecond ram

10 millisecond disc

10 second tape archive

10 nano-second ram

Pico Processor

10 pico-second ram

1 MM 3

100 TB

1 TB

10 GB

1 MB

100 MB

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Gordon Bell’s Platform EconomicsGordon Bell’s Platform Economics

Computer type

$

units

Mainframe WS Browser0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

Mainframe WS Browser

Price (K$)

Volume (K)

App price

• Traditional computers: Custom or Semi-Customhigh-tech and high-touch

• New computers: high-tech and no-touch

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Software Economics: Bill’s LawSoftware Economics: Bill’s Law

•Bill Joy’s law (Sun): Don’t write software for less than 100,000 platforms.

@10M$ engineering expense, 1,000$ price

•Bill Gate’s law:Don’t write software for less than 1,000,000 platforms.

@10M$ engineering expense, 100$ price• Examples:

•UNIX vs NT: 3,500$ vs 500$•Oracle vs SQL-Server: 100,000$ vs 6,000$•No Spreadsheet or Presentation pack on UNIX/VMS/...

• Commoditization of base Software & Hardware

PriceFixed Cost

UnitsMarginal_Cost

_

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Software EconomicsSoftware Economics

•An engineer costs about 150 k$/year

•R&D gets [5%…15%] of budget•Need [3M$…1M$] revenue

per engineer

Microsoft: 9 B$R&D16%

SG&A34%

Product&Service13%

Tax13%

Profit24%

Intel 16 B$R&D8%

SG&A11%

Product&Service47%

Tax

12%

Profit22%

R&D8%

SG&A22%

Product&Service59%

Tax5%

Profit6%

IBM: 72 B$R&D9%

SG&A43%

Tax7%

Profit15%

Product&Services

26%

Oracle: 3 B$

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Grove's LawGrove's LawThe New Computer IndustryThe New Computer Industry

• Horizontal integrationis new structure

• Each layer picks best from lower layer.

• Desktop (C/S) market•1991: 50%•1995: 75%

Intel & SeagateSilicon & Oxide

SystemsBaseware

Middleware

Applications SAP

OracleMicrosoft

Compaq

Integration EDS

Operation AT&TFunction Example

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Bytes/$ Bytes/$ DRAMDRAM

Byte

s/$

1

10

100

1000

10000

100000

10000001970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

Doubling time 964 daysDoubling time 964 days

Growth rate 30% per yearGrowth rate 30% per year

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Nathan’s 1st Law of SoftwareNathan’s 1st Law of Software

It expands to fit the container it is in!It expands to fit the container it is in!

Software is a gas!Software is a gas!

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Windows NT Lines of CodeWindows NT Lines of Code

1,000,000

10,000,000

100,000,000

7/92 2/93 8/93 3/94 10/94 4/95 11/95 6/96 12/96 6/97

Doubling time 866 daysDoubling time 866 days

Growth rate 33.9% per yearGrowth rate 33.9% per year

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Browser Code Growth (MB vs time)Browser Code Growth (MB vs time)

1

10

100

2/95 5/95 8/95 11/95 3/96 6/96 9/96 12/96 3/97 6/97

Doubling time 216 daysDoubling time 216 days

Growth rate 221% per yearGrowth rate 221% per year

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Nathan’s 2nd Law of SoftwareNathan’s 2nd Law of Software

• Initial growth is rapid - like gas expanding (like browser)

• Eventually, limited by hardware (like NT)•Bring any processor to its knees, just before the

new model is out

Software grows until it becomes Software grows until it becomes limited by Moore’s Lawlimited by Moore’s Law

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Nathan’s 3rd Law of SoftwareNathan’s 3rd Law of Software

•That’s why people buy new hardware - economic motivator

•That’s why chips get faster at same price, instead of cheaper

•Will continue as long as there is opportunity for new software

Software growth makes Moore’s Software growth makes Moore’s Law possibleLaw possible

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Nathan’s 4th Law of SoftwareNathan’s 4th Law of Software

•It’s impossible to have enough•New algorithms•New applications and new users•New notions of what is cool

Software is only limited by Software is only limited by human ambition & expectationhuman ambition & expectation

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The Software Crisis!The Software Crisis!

•Von Neumann had trouble •Software is always in “crisis”• Is there some limit to complexity?•Will software ever grow up? •Will the crisis ever end?

Of course Of course not!not!

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The Perpetual CrisisThe Perpetual Crisis

•Panacea solutions•High level languages•Object oriented programming•Component software, ...

•Benefits absorbed by rising expectations

•Software will never be easy•Somebody will push the boundary

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The Ultimate ComputerThe Ultimate Computer•Nathan’s Prognosis

•Learning more about the brain every day

•AI will happen•Computers with

same power in 20 to 30 years

•Brain has no Moore’s Law

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Gilder’s Telecosom Law: Gilder’s Telecosom Law: 3x bandwidth/year for 25 more years3x bandwidth/year for 25 more years

• Today: •10 Gbps per channel•4 channels per fiber: 40 Gbps•32 fibers/bundle = 1.2 Tbps/bundle

• In lab 3 Tbps/fiber (400 x WDM)• In theory 25 Tbps per fiber• 1 Tbps = USA 1996 WAN bisection bandwidth

1 fiber = 25 Tbps

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So

lari

sU

NIX

Inte

rnat

ion

al

OSFDCE

Op

en s

oft

war

e F

ou

nd

atio

n (

OS

F)

NT

ODBCXA / TX

Ob

ject

M

anag

emen

t G

rou

p (

OM

G)

CORBAOpenGroup

God Loves Standards: God Loves Standards: That’s why he made so many of them.That’s why he made so many of them.

1985

1990

1995

X/O

pen

DCE

RPC

GUIDs

IDL

DNS

Kerber

os

COM

Microsoft DCOM based on OSF-DCE TechnologyDCOM and ActiveX extend it

COM

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Moore’s Second LawMoore’s Second Law

•The Cost of Fab Lines Doubles Every Generation (3 years)

• Money Limit:hard to imagine

10 B$ line20 B$ line40 B$ line

• Physical limit:• Quantum Effects

at 0.25 micron now0.05 micron seems hard12 years, 3 generations

• Lithograph:need Xray below 0.13 micron

$1

$10

$100

$1,000

$10,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Year

M$

/ F

ab L

ine

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Constant Dollars vs Constant WorkConstant Dollars vs Constant Work

•Constant Work:

•One SuperServer can do all the world’s computations.

•Constant Dollars:•The world spends 10% on information processing•Computers are moving from 5% penetration to 50%

• 300 B$ to 3T$• We have the patent on the byte and algorithm

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Computer Industry Laws Computer Industry Laws (rules of (rules of thumb)thumb)• Metcalf’s law

• Moore’s First Law• Bell’s Computer Classes (7 price tiers)• Bell’s Platform Evolution• Bell’s Platform Economics• Bill’s Law• Software Economics• Nathan’s 4 Laws of Software• Gilder’s Law of the Telcosom.• Grove’s law (1 and 2)• Moore’s second law• Is Info-Demand Infinite?• The Death of Grosch’s Law

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““

””

Vannevar Bush c1945Vannevar Bush c1945

There will always be plenty of things to There will always be plenty of things to compute ... With millions of people doing compute ... With millions of people doing complicated things.complicated things.

memex … stores all his books, records, and memex … stores all his books, records, and communications, and ... can be consulted with communications, and ... can be consulted with speed and flexibilityspeed and flexibility

Matchbook sized, $.05 encyclopediaMatchbook sized, $.05 encyclopedia

Speech to textSpeech to text

Head mounted camera, dry photographyHead mounted camera, dry photography

”” ““

““ ““ ““

”” ””

””

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Kinds Of Information ProcessingKinds Of Information Processing

Point-to-Point Broadcast

Immediate

TimeShifted

conversationmoney

lectureconcert

mail booknewspaper

NetNetworkwork

DataDataBaseBase

Its ALL going electronicImmediate is being stored for analysis (so ALL database)Analysis & Automatic Processing are being added

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Why Put Everything in Cyberspace?Why Put Everything in Cyberspace?

Low rentmin $/byte

Shrinks timenow or later

Shrinks spacehere or there

Automate processingknowbots

Point-to-Point OR Broadcast

Imm

edia

te O

R T

ime

Del

ayed

Network

DataBase

LocateProcessAnalyzeSummarize

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Databases: Databases: Information At Your Fingertips™ Information At Your Fingertips™

Information Network™ Information Network™Knowledge Navigator™Knowledge Navigator™

• All information will be in an online database (somewhere)• You might record everything you

• read: 10MB/day, 400 GB/lifetime (8 tapes today)• hear: 400MB/day, 16 TB/lifetime (3 tapes/year today)• see: 1MB/s, 40GB/day, 1.6 PB/lifetime (maybe someday)

• Data storage, organization, and analysis is a challenge.• That is what databases are about• DBs do a good job on “records”• Now working on text, spatial, image, and sound.• This needs lots of PROCESSING too.

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Database Store ALL Data Database Store ALL Data TypesTypes

• The New World:•Billions of objects•Big objects (1MB)•Objects have behavior

(methods)

• The Old World:

– Millions of objects

– 100-byte objects

People

Name Address Papers Picture Voice

Mike

Won

David NY

Berk

Austin

People

Name Address

Mike

Won

David NY

Berk

Austin Paperless officeLibrary of congress onlineAll information online entertainment publishing businessWWW & InternetInformation Network, Knowledge Navigator, Information at your fingertips

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Magnetic Storage Cheaper than Magnetic Storage Cheaper than PaperPaper

• File Cabinet: cabinet (4 drawer) 250$paper (24,000 sheets) 250$space (2x3 @ 10$/ft2) 180$total 700$3 ¢/sheet

•Disk: disk (4 GB =) 800$ASCII: 2 m pages 0.04 ¢/sheet (80x cheaper)

• Image: 200 k pages0.4 ¢/sheet (8x cheaper)

• Store everything on disk

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Crossing the Crossing the ChasmChasm

OldMarket

OldTechnology

NewTechnology

VeryVeryHard

Hard

hardhardBoringBoring

CompetitveCompetitveSlow GrowthSlow Growth

No ProductNo ProductNo CustomersNo Customers

product findsproduct finds customerscustomers

CustomersCustomersfind productfind product

hardhard

New Market

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Billions of Clients Billions of Clients

• Every device will be “intelligent”•Doors, rooms, cars, ...

•Computing will be ubiquitous

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Billions of Clients Need Billions of Clients Need Millions of ServersMillions of Servers

mobileclients

fixed clients

server

superserver

Clients

Servers

Super ServersLarge DatabasesHigh Traffic shared data

All clients are networked to serversmay be nomadic or on-demand

Fast clients want faster servers

Servers provide

data,

control,

coordination

communication

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The Parallel Law of ComputingThe Parallel Law of Computing

Grosch's Law:

Parallel Law: Needs

Linear Speedup and Linear ScaleupNot always possible

1 MIPS1 $

1,000 $

1,000 MIPS

2x $ is 2x performance

1 MIPS1 $

1,000 MIPS 32 $.03$/MIPS

2x $ is 4x performance

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““The mainframe is dead!The mainframe is dead!… and for sure this time!”… and for sure this time!”

PRICE

MainframeMainframe

ServerServer

PCPC

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Useful Useful AphorismsAphorisms• There are no silver bullets.

Fred Brooks

• There is no such thing as a heterogeneous system. Butler Lampson

• You know you have a distributed system when a computer you have never heard of prevents yours from working.

Leslie Lamport

• Hubris: the Greek word for “second system.” Bob Stewart

• Software is like entropy, it weighs nothing, it is hard to understand, andit always increases.

Norman Augustine

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Scaleable SystemsScaleable SystemsBOTH SMP and ClusterBOTH SMP and Cluster

SMPSuper Server

DepartmentalServer

PersonalSystem

Grow Up with SMPGrow Up with SMP4xP6 is now standard4xP6 is now standard

Grow Out with ClusterGrow Out with Cluster

Cluster has inexpensive partsCluster has inexpensive parts

Clusterof PCs

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SMPs Have SMPs Have AdvantagesAdvantages

• Single system imageeasier to manageeasier to programthreads in shared

memory, disk, net

• 4x SMP is commodity• Software capable of 16x• Problems:

•> 4 not commodity•scale-down problem

(starter systems expensive)

SMPSuper Server

DepartmentalServer

PersonalSystem

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Clusters Have Clusters Have AdvantagesAdvantages

• Clients and Servers made from the same stuff.

• Inexpensive: •Built with commodity components

• Fault tolerance: •Spare modules mask failures

• Modular growth•grow by adding small modules

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Future Future SuperServerSuperServer

4T4T Machine MachineArray of 1,000 4B machines1 bips processors,1 BB DRAM 10 BB disks, 1 tapes1 Bbps comm lines

A few MegaBucksChallenge:

ManageabilityProgrammabilitySecurityAvailabilityScaleabilityAffordability

As easy as a single system

1,000 discs = 10 Terrorbytes

100 Tape Transports

= 1,000 tapes = 1 PetaByte

100 Nodes1 Tips

Hig

h S

pe

ed N

etw

ork

( 10

G

b/s

)