The Sustainable Development Oxymoron: Quantifying and Modelling the Incompatibility of Sustainable Development Goals Viktoria Spaiser Shyam Ranganathan Ranjula Bali Swain David J.T. Sumpter
The Sustainable Development Oxymoron: Quantifying and
Modelling the Incompatibility of Sustainable Development Goals
ViktoriaSpaiserShyamRanganathanRanjulaBaliSwainDavidJ.T.Sumpter
SustainableDevelopmentGoals(SDG)
Data(RevoluBon)forSDGs
*
*WorldBankDataAPI
1432economic,social,poliBcalandenvironmentalindicators,217countries,years1980-2013,
finallyused233indicators
AreSDGsconsistent?
CO2.emissions
Air.PollutionProtected.Land
Education
Women.Parliament
Child.Mortality
Water
GINI
Hunger
Violence
Internet
Protected.Sea
SanitationPovertyAlternative.Energy
Unemployment.Youth
−1.0
−0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0Factor Dimension 1
Fact
or D
imen
sion
2
20406080
A
AreSDGsconsistent?EFA-suggestedmodel,CFAconfirmed:
Development(Factor Dimension 1)
CM Pov Hun Wat* San* Ed* Int* CO2 AP
Vio
.90 .91 .73 .90 .92.93 .60 .30
.78 .68
-.53
Inequality & Violence(Factor Dimension 2)
GINI
B
ModelLatentVariable(L),byCFA
CFAfactorscoresforLusedtocreateModelLatentVariableL (LatentVariable1)
SDL
CMEdu
CO2
.821 .981 -.531
ProporBonVariance:.73
R2=.673R2=.961
R2=.282
ModelFitsCFA:CFI:.973;TLI:.931;RMSEA:.031;SRMR:.063
CO2.e
mission
s
Education
Child.Mortality
−2
0
2
4
−2 0 2Factor Dimension 1
Fact
or D
imen
sion
2
FindingpredicBvemodels
Method
1. FeatureSelecBon:VariableEliminaBonAlgorithm,usingEnsemblePLS,
accounBngfornonlineariBesèbestpredictors2.Data-drivenDynamicalSystemsModeling:
ModelCombinaBonApproach&BayesianModelSelecBonwithbestpredictorsselectedbyFeatureSelecBonAlgorithm,iteraBve
Data-drivenDynamicalSystemsModeling
ModelSelec+on:1.LogLikelihood(pre-selecBon):2.BayesFactor(finalselecBon):athigherorderiteraBonstepsonlyBayesFactor
ModelCombina+onApproach:CombinaBonofincreasingcomplexity(numberofterms)ofpolynomialterms
Net foreign assets
GD
P pe
r cap
ita
2 4 6
6
8
10
−0.5
0
0.5
Net foreign assetsFe
rtilit
y ra
te
2 4 6
2
4
6
8 −0.5
0
0.5
Womens economic rights
Inde
pend
ent J
udic
ary
0 1 2 3
0
0.5
1
1.5
2 −0.5
0
0.5
Natural Depletion
SDL
0 2 4
5
10
15
−0.3
−0.28
−0.26
−0.24
−0.22
Best-fitModelsforchangeofL
D: Net foreign assets (indebtedness) G: GDP per capita Fr: Fertility rate Rf: Women’s economic rights J: Independence of Judicary Nd: Natural depletion costs
FactorscontribuBngtoincompaBbilityFactorsshowingawayout
G: GDP per capita C: Final consumption expenditure Fr: Fertility rate Er: Renewable energy production M: Measles immunication Nd: Natural depletion costs Wg: Government spending Em: Particulate emission damage
DynamicalSystemsModelsforthethreepillars1. EndPoverty(ModelforchangesinChildMortality):
2. Socio-economicinclusion(ModelforchangesinEducaBon):
3. Environment(ModelforchangesinCO2emissions):
SDG index 1
−0.6 1
MonitoringSustainableDevelopment
BasedonLmodel
TheSDGindexvs.HDIandGDPSDGindex1predicts HDIpredicts GDPpercapitapredicts
54%ofchangesinchildmortality
41%ofchangesinchildmortality
17%ofchangesinchildmortality
6%ofchangesineducaBon 4%ofchangesineducaBon 2%ofchangesineducaBon
21%ofchangesinCO2emissions
0.7%ofchangesinCO2emissions
0.4%ofchangesinCO2emissions
16%ofchangesinL 7%ofchangesinL 4%ofchangesinL
FormoreinformaBon…
WorkingPaperonSSRN:hgp://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2766875