The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts R. D. Shelton and P. Foland WTEC Baltimore, Maryland, USA Word version in Proceedings of the 12 th International Conference On Scientometrics and Informetrics , pp. 369-380. Rio de Janeiro, July 14-17, 2009. Both posted at itri2.org/Rpaper/
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The Race for World Leadership of Science and Technology: Status and Forecasts
R. D. Shelton and P. FolandWTECBaltimore, Maryland, USA
Word version in Proceedings of the 12th International Conference On Scientometrics and Informetrics, pp. 369-380. Rio de Janeiro, July 14-17, 2009. Both posted at itri2.org/Rpaper/
Outline
Purposes Input Indicators (Table 1 in paper) Output Indicators (Table 2) Current National Positions with
Extrapolation Forecasts Focus on Forecasting Scientific Paper
Shares Conclusions
Purposes
1. Provide a set of indicators to evaluate current national leadership of S&T (2005 data mostly).
2. Provide forecasts based on recent trends to predict which country will lead in the near future.
3. Provide detailed forecasts of numbers of scientific publications in SCI, with confirmation from other databases.
Model of a National Scientific Enterprise
Indicators measure inputs and outputs
Multiple linear regression can identify which inputs are most important
“The Black Box”
Resources InS&T Outputs
S&T Input Indicators (2005)Indicator U.S. EU27 PRC Units
1. Population 297 (1.0%) 492 (0.4%) 1308 (0.6%) Millions
EU: papers in SCI, S&E PhDs, Nobels PRC: trade balance
But linear forecasts show the PRC will gain: Lead hi-tech exports and researchers by 2010 Pass EU in GERD by 2015 (US will still lead) Pass US in S&E PhDs by 2015 (EU will still lead) Lead in papers in SCI by 2017 (more later)
2005 snapshot shows US leading, as the gurus have stated, BUT…
Focus on Scientific Papers
While growing fast in the Science Citation Index (SCI), China is far behind, however the Shelton Model forecasts that it will soon pass the US and EU to lead the world
Some confirmation comes from other databases, where China is already a contender: Inspec Scopus Compendix
More Detailed Model of Publication System (Inside the Black Box)
$ Inputs
US
EU
AT
ROW
Papers
Published
National Research Systems -- Fairly Independent
Highly Interdependent Paper Selection
Journal
Editors
g1p1
G (total) P (total)
wi = gi/G
GERD share
mi = pi/P
Paper share
• mi is share of papers published (fractional basis)
• wi is the share of GERD for the OECD Group
• k i is a "constant" of proportionality; it differs by
country.
• k i is also the efficiency of country i in producing
papers per $1 million in GERD, normalized by the OECD average efficiency.
• For data in a single year the equation is an identity, but it is most useful over a range of years when k i is approximately constant