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Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International Conference on S&T Indicators, Leiden, Sept. 10, 2010
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Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

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Page 1: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox?

Patricia Foland and R. D. SheltonWTEC

11th International Conference on S&T Indicators, Leiden, Sept. 10, 2010

Page 2: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

NSF Science and Engineering Indicators--fractional counts.

Q: Why did the EU become world leader in mid-90s?

SCI and SSCI Papers

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

US

EU15

PRC

Page 3: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Relative Efficiency ki

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

US

EU15

PRC

Relative efficiency is this ratio normalized by OECDg values.

EU and US had the same ki in 1990, but curves diverged in 1990s. After 1998, curves are flat with EU 60% more efficient. Finding why 1990s changed will suggest why the EU is more efficient today.

A: EU passed the US because it sharply increased its ratio of papers/R&D €. Q: But, why?

Page 4: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Model of a national scientific enterprise

Indicators measure inputs like R&D investment (GERD) and outputs like patents.

Multiple linear regression can identify which inputs are most important

Resources InS&T Outputs

Page 5: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Statistical techniques for accounting for national publication changes

• Multiple regression shows that publication outputs are more highly correlated with R&D investment (GERD) than other inputs

• The Shelton Model predicts publication share mi from overall GERD share wi : mi = ki*wi

• ki is the “relative efficiency,” it is also papers/€, normalized by values for whole set

• Model works well after 2000, when ki is fairly constant, but not for 1990s EU advance

• Need to search for better model, by analyzing effect of input components on efficiency

Page 6: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Analysis of components of efficiency

• Numerator (papers) vs denominator (GERD)?

• Artifact of SCI: new journals favored EU?• GERD sources: Govt, Industry, Foreign,

Other?• GERD spending: HERD, BERD, Goverd,

Other?• Govt appropriations: military, civilian? • Labor vs capital: HR, GERD?• Countries of the EU?

Only a few of these analyses will be shown here.

Page 7: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

EU shot ahead in efficiency ratio because it slowed rises in R&D $, but still sped rises in papers. Q: how?

GERD = gross expenditure on R&D. US and EU reduced rises in GERD; the EU more so. Paper change is more dramatic.

Annual Increases in GERD

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

EU15 US

Perc

ent 81-89

91-99

Numerator Denominator

Page 8: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Was this because the SCI added journals favoring the EU in the 90s?

In 1992 and 1994 the SCI added many journals that seem to favor the EU. (From NSI CD)

Increase Over Previous Year

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Per

cen

t

SCI

EU-US Paper Shares

Page 9: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

World Paper Shares Fixed Database vs. Variable

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Per

cen

t

US Fixed

EU15 Fixed

US Variable

EU15 Variable

Until 2004 NSF used a fixed set of journals. With SEI2004 it used full SCI. Shelton and Foland (2008) confirm this finding with a different approach.

No, change is real and not an artifact of the SCI

Page 10: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

A: The EU increased paper share in the 90s by sharpening focus on sectors that maximize papers

Government funding instead of industryUniversity instead of business R&D spendingCivilian instead of military R&D

Multiple regression shows these input components are more effective in producing paper outputs—first two much more so.

BUT, this allocation minimizes outputs like patents with more immediate economic benefits—thus the European Paradox

Page 11: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Regression analysis of which GERD components best account for paper outputs

Year = 1999, Constant $ PPP series usedDependent Variable (DV) = papers in SEI, fractional counts Independent Variables = two components of R&D funding (IV1, IV2)—several typesN = 39 countries in OECD Group, sometimes fewerP is significance probability of IV; if p < 0.05, variable is importantR2 > 96% always – IVs are very good predictors

Page 12: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Government vs. industrial funding of R&D

IV1 = government funded part of GERDIV2 = industry likewiseMuch smaller components omittedIV1: P = 0.000 (very significant)IV2: P = 0.838 (not significant)Regression equation for papers:DV = 2.73 IV1 – 0.031 IV2 + 1957

Page 13: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Part of GERD From Public vs. Private Funding

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Per

cen

t

US Public

EU15 Public

US Private

EU15 Private

In 1990s, both shifted R&D funding from government to industry, but this change was much smaller in the EU

Government funding is much more likely to produce papers. Paper advantage: EU.

Page 14: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

SCI and SSCI Papers

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

US

EU15

GERD from Govt Constant $ PPP

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

$ M

illi

on

s

US

EU

Patterns are almost identical with a small lag. Is this the smoking gun? (EU curve is shifted slightly above US because of another factor--HERD.)

Input

Output

Page 15: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

University vs. business expenditure of R&D

IV1 = HERD, higher education part of GERD spendingIV2 = BERD, business part likewiseMuch smaller components omittedIV1: P = 0.009 (very significant)IV2: P = 0.000 (very significant, but coefficient is much smaller)Regression equation for papers:

DV = 2.53 IV1 +0.58 IV2 + 2136

Page 16: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

A model that can account for EU passing US

DV here is paper shareIV1 = Government funding, shareIV2 = HERD, higher education spending shareMuch smaller components omittedBoth IV: P = 0.000 (very significant)Regression equation for paper share:

DV = 0.582.53 IV1 +0.271 IV2 + 0.249

Page 17: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

HERD Constant$ PPP

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

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1997

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2007

$ M

illi

on

s

US

EU15

Higher education R&D spending

Despite smaller overall GERD, the EU spends more on university R&D. Paper advantage: EU.

Page 18: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

HERD Part of GERD

0

5

10

15

20

25

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Per

cen

t

US

EU15

This shows EU sharpened focus on HERD in 1990s. “Over 1990s academic researchers contributed almost ¾ of the total [paper] output” SEI 1998. Advantage: EU.

Higher education part of R&D expenditure

Page 19: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

BERD Constant$ PPP

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

$Mil

lio

ns

US

EU15

Business R&D spending

This sector produces fewer papers, and US sharply increased this focus in the 1990s, while EU investment was fairly flat. Advantage: EU.

Page 20: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Defense vs. civilian government appropriations

IV1 = civilian part of GBAORD fundingIV2 = defense part likewiseN = 29 available IV1: P = 0.000 (very significant)IV2: P = 0.000 (very significant, coefficient is somewhat smaller)Regression equation for papers:

DV = 2.65 IV1 +2.19 IV2 + 2531

Page 21: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Government Funding of Military R&D

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50

60

70

80

Pe

rce

nt

of

GB

AO

RD

US

EU15

More than 50% of US government R&D is for military; EU has about 10%

Both cut military R&D share after Cold War, but EU cut far more than the US. Paper advantage: EU.

Page 22: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Civilian R&D from Government

0

10000

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100000

1981

1983

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1987

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2007

$ m

illl

ion

s C

urr

ent

PP

P

US

EU15

Despite smaller overall R&D funding, EU governments spend more on the civilian sector

Paper advantage: EU

Page 23: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Conclusions

At the end of the Cold War, the EU spent more of the peace dividend on R&D that produced papers, and the US spent more of it on R&D that did not.This sharply increased EU efficiency, causing it to become the world leader in papers.But, papers are only one output of the R&D enterprise. The European Paradox is the perception that Europe does not reap the full economic benefits of its leadership in papers.This analysis suggests that EU focus on investments that produce papers probably lowers outputs with more immediate economic benefits—patents, for example.Regression also shows that those outputs come more from the private, business, and perhaps military investments—the opposite of research papers.

Page 24: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Appendix Charts

Page 25: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Government Funding of Military R&D

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10

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40

50

60

70

80

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

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1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Per

cen

t o

f G

BA

OR

D FR

DE

IT

UK

US

EU15

More than 50% of US government R&D is for military; EU has about 10%

All reduced military R&D share after Cold War, but EU cut far more than the US. Paper advantage: EU.

Page 26: Why is Europe so efficient at producing scientific papers, and does this explain the European Paradox? Patricia Foland and R. D. Shelton WTEC 11th International.

Average Annual Growth in Papers

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

DE UK FR IT EU15 US

Per

cen

t

Papers 81-89

Papers 91-99

EU paper gains driven by large countries

Large EU countries greatly increased output. US decline is related. This is almost a zero sum game.