Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis November 1, 2016
Election 2016 – A Brief Overview and Analysis
November 1, 2016
K E Y TA K E AWAYS
Source: Bloomberg Politics Poll Decoder, Real Clear Politics
Ø An average of recent polling still has Clinton on top nationally, although the race has tightened in the last week.
Ø As close as the election may have gotten, vote preference results a week out are not necessarily predictive of the final result. Mitt Romney was +1 vs. Barack Obama in comparable tracking poll results in 2012, for example, and John Kerry was +1 vs. George W. Bush a week out in 2004.
Ø Trump’s margin with independent voters is +7.3, up six points since Friday. Romney won independents by 5.
Ø Clinton's lead with female voters is +11.4 across polls. Obama won women by 11 in 2012. Men are +3.3 for Trump. Romney won men by 7.
Ø Clinton is overwhelmingly winning non-white voters (+48). But Obama won them even more resoundingly: +62.6.
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W H AT T O L O O K F O R O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K
Source: NYT The UpshotPAGE 3
Ø Is there a Trump comeback?§ As the race tightens, it will be worth looking at whether Trump has made a breakthrough in
Clinton’s firewall – states like Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.
Ø Can Clinton build a landslide?§ If the next tier of leaning-Republican states – like Missouri, Indiana, Texas, South Carolina or
Alaska – start looking like true tossups, that would be a sign of a potential landslide.
Ø Can Republicans hold the Senate?§ Republicans will probably need to win races in three of these six states to retain control of the
chamber: Pennsylvania, Indiana, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Missouri.
Ø Can the Democrats put the House in play?§ Although it’s very hard to identify a realistic path for the Democrats to get the seats they need, if
Hillary Clinton pulls away over the last week, control of the House will loom as a possibility.
B A T T L E F O R T H E P R E S I D E N C Y
C L I N TON E N J OYS L E A D O V E R T R U MP N AT IO NALLY; V E R Y F E W M AY C H A N GE V O T E
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Clinton Trump Spread
HuffPost Pollster 48.2% 42.0% Clinton
+6.2Real Clear Politics 47.5% 45.3% Clinton
+2.2
Two-way RaceFour-way Race
Clinton Trump Spread
HuffPost Pollster 45.9% 40.3% Clinton
+5.6
FiveThirtyEight 45.3% 41.4% Clinton +3.9
Real Clear Politics 45.3% 43.1% Clinton
+2.2 Clinton voters
Trumpvoters
Mind made up 94% 93%Might change mind 5% 6%
Source: CBS News Poll 10/12-10/16
Is your mind made up or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
H O W T H E R A C E H A S S H I F TED N AT ION ALLY
Source: Real Clear Politics Averages of 4-way racePAGE 6
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43.144.3 44.1 44.3
46.3
44.9 45.3
41.540.6 40.9 40.6
39.039.9
43.1
Before 1st Debate
Before VP Debate
Tape Release Before 2nd Debate
Before 3rd Debate
October 24th November 1st
CLINTON
TRUMP
A L O T C A N H A P P EN O V E R T H E F I N A L W E E K W H E N I T C O M E S T O T H E P O L L S
Source: ABC News / Washington Post PollPAGE 7
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Election ABC/Post PollOne Week out
Tracking Poll Final Estimate Actual Vote
2016: Clinton – Trump 45 – 46 ? ?
2012: Obama – Romney 48 – 49 50 – 47 51 – 47
2008: Obama – McCain 52 – 45 53 – 44 53 – 46
2004: Kerry – Bush 49 – 48 48 – 49 48 – 51
2000: Gore – Bush 45 – 48 45 – 48 48 – 48
1996: Clinton – Dole 54 – 35 51 – 39 49 – 41
1992: Clinton – Bush 41 – 34 44 – 37 43 – 37
R E L ATI VELY W E A K S U P PORT F O R B O T H C L I N TON A N D T R U MP
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016PAGE 8
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55%
63%
69%
68%
55%
2000 Gore
2004 Kerry
2008 Obama
2012 Obama
2016 Clinton
Democratic candidate
64%
70%
55%
67%
56%
2000 Bush
2004 Bush
2008 McCain
2012 Romney
2016 Trump
Republican candidate
% of supporters who strongly support…
‘ A N T I -CL INTO N’ V O T E A M O N G T R U MP V O T E RS S TA ND S I N C O N T RAS T T O P R I O R E L E C TIO NS
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63%
39%
77%
73%
57%
32%
53%
18%
24%
41%
2000
2004
2008
2012
2016
64%
71%
64%
57%
45%
30%
22%
30%
39%
51%
Among Republican candidate supporters Among Democratic candidate supporters
Would you say your choice is more a vote FOR ____ or AGAINST _____?
For DemocratFor RepublicanAgainst Democrat Against Republican
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, October 20-25, 2016
L O O K I N G A T T H E P R E S I D E N T I A L M A P
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E L E C TOR AL M A P FAV ORAB LE T O WAR D C L I N TON Likely/ Leans Clinton
(272)Likely/Leans Trump
(164)Toss-Up
(102)
CT 7
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
312
7
556
43
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
2NH 4
VT 3
3
4
38
DC 3MD 10
DE 3NJ 14
RI 4 MA 1129
6
7
10
6
10
6
86 9 16
29
91513
11
20 11
10 16
1820
85
ME2(1)
ME1(1)
S E L E CT S TATE P O L LI NG AV E R AGE S
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
FL
VAOH
PAIA
AZ
NV
(10/21 – 10/28)Trump: 45.0%Clinton: 43.5%
(9/20 – 10/26)Trump: 41.7%Clinton: 40.3%
(10/17 – 10/30)Clinton: 45.2%Trump: 39.6%
(10/23 – 10/30)Clinton: 47.2%Trump: 41.2%
Clinton: 47.5%Trump: 42.3%(10/23 – 10/30)
Trump: 45.5%Clinton: 44.5%
(10/21 – 10/30)
(10/17 – 10/30)Trump: 46.8%Clinton: 44.3%
Clinton: 45.0%Trump: 44.0%(10/20 – 10/30) NC Clinton: 47.3%
Trump: 44.7%(10/20 – 10/30)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
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Averages are for Four-way Race
PAGE 13
States Clinton Trump Clinton TrumpArizona 43.5% 45.0% 0 11Florida 44.5% 45.5% 0 29Iowa 40.3% 41.7% 0 6Nevada 45.0% 44.0% 6 0New Hampshire 45.2% 39.6% 4 0North Carolina 47.3% 44.7% 15 0Pennsylvania 47.2% 41.2% 20 0Ohio 44.3% 46.8% 0 18Virginia 47.5% 42.3% 13 0
Swing State Voters 58 64Leaning/Likely State Voters 235 181*
Total Overall Votes 293 245
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES
C L I N TON L E A DS I N F I V E O F N I N E B AT TL EGRO UND S TATE S
*Indications point to Trump winning 1 Electoral vote from Maine which awards its electoral votes proportionally
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H O W S W I N G S TATE S H AV E S H I F TED
Pre-First Debate (9/26)
Tape Release (10/7)
Pre-Final Debate (10/19)
Today(11/1)
Arizona Trump +3.0 Trump +1.0 Clinton +0.2 Trump +1.5
Florida Clinton +0.5 Clinton +2.4 Clinton +3.6 Trump +1.0
Iowa Trump +5.0 Trump +4.7 Trump +3.7 Trump +1.4
Nevada Trump +2.3 Clinton +1.4 Clinton +4.2 Clinton +1.0
New Hampshire Clinton +5.4 Clinton +5.0 Clinton +3.6 Clinton +5.6
North Carolina Trump +0.8 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6 Clinton +2.6
Ohio Trump +2.0 Trump +1.6 Trump +0.7 Trump +2.5
Pennsylvania Clinton +1.8 Clinton +6.0 Clinton +6.8 Clinton +6.0
Virginia Clinton +6.0 Clinton +7.0 Clinton +8.7 Clinton +5.2
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
A N D T H O S E O T H E R R A C E S : S E N A T E & H O U S E
Source: Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, last updated Oct 21st
K E Y 2 0 1 6 S E N ATE R A C E S: O P P ORTUN ITY F O R D E M O CRAT S T O R E C A PT URE S E V E RAL S E AT S
Lean Dem (2) Pure Toss-Up (6) Lean Rep (1)
IL (Kirk- R) v. Duckworth NV (Open- D):Heck (R) v. Cortez Masto (D) FL (Rubio- R) v. Murphy
WI (Johnson- R) v. Feingold PA (Toomey- R) v. McGinty
IN (Open- R) – Young (R) v. Bayh (D)
NH (Ayotte- R) v. Hassan
MO (Blunt- R) v. Kander
NC (Burr- R) v. Ross
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There are five very close Senate races in which the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus model puts the margin separating the two major-party candidates within 2 percentage points: Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. All five of these races have remained close throughout October, with no sign of either candidate breaking away. If the model perfectly projects all five of these races, 2016 would be only the second election in the past 35 years in which more than three Senate races had final margins of 2 points or less.
S E L E CT S E N ATE P O L L IN G AV E RA GES
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NH
AZ
FL
OHPA
WI
NV
(10/6 – 10/27)Feingold: 50.3%Johnson: 43.5%
(10/20 – 10/30)McGinty: 44.8%Toomey: 40.8%
Rubio: 49.0%Murphy: 43.4%
(10/20 – 10/27)
(10/10 – 10/27)Portman: 51.3%Strickland: 36.8%
Heck: 45.2%Cortez Masto: 44.8%
(10/20 – 10/27)
McCain: 48.3%Kirkpatrick: 38.0%
(10/2 – 10/28)
NCBurr: 46.3%Ross: 45.3%(10/20 – 10/28)
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
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MO
(10/17 – 10/30)Ayotte: 47.2%Hassan: 45.4%Blunt: 45.7%
Kander: 44.7%(10/9 – 10/26)
IN
Bayh: 44.5%Young: 40.8%
(10/3 – 10/24)
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STATE DEM REP DEM REPArizona Kirkpatrick: 38.0% McCain (i): 48.3% HOLDFlorida Murphy: 43.4% Rubio (i): 49.0% HOLDIllinois Duckworth: 43.3% Kirk (i): 36.3% PICKUPIndiana Bayh:44.5% Young: 40.8% PICKUPMissouri Kander: 44.7% Blunt (i): 45.7% HOLDNevada Cortez Masto: 44.8% Heck: 45.2% PICKUPNew Hampshire Hassan: 45.4% Ayotte (i): 47.2% HOLDNorth Carolina Ross: 45.3% Burr (i): 46.3% HOLDPennsylvania McGinty: 44.8% Toomey (i): 40.8% PICKUPOhio Strickland: 36.8% Portman (i): 51.3% HOLDWisconsin Feingold: 50.3% Johnson (i): 43.5% PICKUP
Toss-Up / LeaningRaces 4 7Solid / Likely Races 9 14NotUp For Election 36 30
Total Senate Make-up 49 51
RCP POLL AVERAGE
S E N ATE C O N T ROL C O U LD G O E I T H E R WAY A S W E H E A D I N T O F I N A L W E E K
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R E P U BL ICA N S E N ATE C A N DI DATES P O L L B E T TE R T H A N T R U M P I N K E Y S TAT ES
STATE SENATE CANDIDATE TRUMP DIFFERENCEArizona McCain (i): 48.3% Trump: 45.0% +3.3Florida Rubio (i): 49.0% Trump: 45.5% +3.5Illinois Kirk (i): 36.3% Trump: 33.0% +3.3Nevada Heck: 45.2% Trump: 44.0% +1.2New Hampshire Ayotte (i): 47.2% Trump: 39.6% +7.6North Carolina Burr (i): 46.3% Trump: 44.7% +1.6Pennsylvania Toomey (i): 40.8% Trump: 41.2% -0.4Ohio Portman (i): 51.3% Trump: 46.8% +4.5Wisconsin Johnson (i): 43.5% Trump 41.3% +2.2
Source: RealClearPolitics Updated 11/1/16
Source: NBC / WSJ Survey, October 10-13, 2016 PAGE 20
C O N G RES SIO NAL B A L L OT I S C L O S E, A LT H OUGH M O R E V O T E RS W O U L D V O T E F O R C O N GRE SSI ONA L R E P U BLI CAN S A S A C H E C K O N H I L L ARY A N D D E M O CR ATS
If the election for Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate in your district or the Republican candidate in your district?
45% 47%
9%
Republican candidate
Democratic candidate
Other / Unsure (vol.)
Source: Fox News Poll, October 22-25, 2016
Would you be more likely to vote for…?
40%
53%
A Democratic candidate who will help Hillary Clinton and
Congressional Democrats pass their agenda
A Republican candidate who will be a check-and-balance to
Hillary Clinton and Congressional Democrats
“”Depends,” Neither,” “Other,” and “Not sure” results not shown
Thinking about the election for U.S. Congress…
Source: Cook Political Report, as of October 27, 2016 PAGE 21
H O U S E R A C E R AT ING S
The Cook Political Reportcounts just 39 seats out of 435 as competitive. Of the 39 competitive seats, 33 are held by Republicans and six are held by Democrats. That means that if Democrats swept every single competitive seat, they would win the majority. Chances of this happening though, are highly unlikely.
Bolded name denotes opposing party's seat Italicized name denotes Freshman member
P R E D I C T I O N S
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W H AT T H E P U N D ITS P R E DI CT
PAGE 24
W H AT T H E V O T E RS P R E D ICT F O R T H E P R E S I DENCY
(AP-GfK) Regardless of which candidate you personally want to win, which candidate do you think is more likely to win the presidential race in November?
Clinton Trump74% 25%
(Suffolk / USA Today) Just your best guess -- When all the votes are counted this November, who do you think is most likely to be elected president: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump?
(CNN-ORC) Regardless of who you support and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the presidential election this November?
(ABC / WashPost) Regardless of whom you support, who do you expect to win the election for president?
Clinton Trump70% 19%
Clinton Trump68% 27%
Clinton Trump57% 31%
F O U R I N F I V E V O T E R S W I S H T H E E L E C TI ON W E R E O V E R
Are you generally enjoying this presidential election, or do you wish it was over?
Source: YouGov Poll, October 23-24, 2016
I wish the election
were over81%
I’m enjoying the election
12%
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Not sure7%
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