Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis September 28, 2012
Election 2012: A Brief Overview and Analysis
September 28, 2012
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. Political Context………………………………………………………….………..3
2. Campaign Interest & Engagement……………………………………….10
3. Views of the Candidates..……………………………………………….…..13
4. Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race ……………..….…….…19
5. Battleground States……….……………………………………………...……22
6. Battle for Congress……………………….……………………….…………...25
7. The Debates……………………………………………………………………….29
Slide
3
Political Context
NUMBER WHO THINK COUNTRY IS ON THE WRONG TRACK TRENDING DOWN; JOBS IS TOP ISSUE
4
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
As of September 27, 2012
PROBLEM %
Unemployment and jobs 43
The federal deficit 14
Health care 11
Gas prices 7
The situation in the Middle East 6
Taxes 4
Immigration 3
Terrorism 3
Which of the following do you see as the most important issue facing the country right now?
Source: Bloomberg National Poll, September 21-24, 2012
WRONG TRACK 56.5%
RIGHT DIRECTION 35.9%
AMERICANS SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THEIR VIEW OF THE U.S. ECONOMY
5
What is your current view of the economy in the U.S.?
Source: Bloomberg News National Poll, Sept 21-24, 2012 Note: “Not sure” results are not shown.
45%
21%
33%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Cautious because nothing isreally happening
Fearful because things aregetting worse
Hopeful because there aresigns of improvement
FOR VOTERS, IT’S STILL THE ECONOMY ENERGY, TERRORISM, IMMIGRATION LESS IMPORTANT THAN IN 2008
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In making your decision about who to vote for this fall, will the issue of [ITEM] be very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?
Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
Based on registered voters. All 2008 figures from August except * October 2008 and ** May 2008
41%
55%
60%
68%
69%
74%
83%
87%
52%
77%
72%
69%
73%
73%
80%
87%
Immigration
Energy
Terrorism
Budget deficit**
Education
Health care
Jobs*
Economy
20082012
+3
+1
-4
-1
-12
-22
-11
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote
SWING VOTERS SHARE SIMILARITIES WITH ROMNEY AND OBAMA VOTERS
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012 Based on registered voters
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote
Swing voters
%
Budget deficit 63
Terrorism 57
Immigration 39
Economy 85
Foreign policy 45
Jobs 74
Taxes 57
Abortion 34
Energy 54
Health care 65
Medicare 61
Education 74
% of swing voters who say each is “very important” to their vote
Romney voters
Obama voters Diff
% %
Budget deficit 82 55 R+27
Terrorism 68 55 R+13
Immigration 47 36 R+11
Economy 93 83 R+10
Foreign policy 66 56 R+10
Jobs 87 81 R+6
Taxes 70 64 R+6
Abortion 46 49 O+3
Energy 51 59 O+8
Health care 67 82 O+15
Medicare 55 74 O+19
Education 52 84 O+32
MORE WOMEN RATE ISSUE OF ABORTION AS VERY IMPORTANT
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012 Based on registered voters
Total Men Women M-W Diff
% % %
Abortion 46 36 54 W+18
Health care 74 67 81 W+14
Education 69 64 74 W+10
Jobs 83 78 86 W+8
Medicare 65 62 67 W+5
Economy 87 85 89 W+4
Immigration 41 39 43 W+4
Terrorism 60 59 62 W+3
Taxes 66 66 66 --
Foreign policy 60 61 60 M+1
Budget deficit 68 70 67 M+3
Energy 55 57 53 M+4
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote
MEDICARE A TOP ISSUE FOR OLDER VOTERS
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012 Based on registered voters
18-49 50-64 65+ Young-Old Diff
% % %
Medicare 55 69 83 -28
Terrorism 53 63 72 -19
Foreign policy 55 59 73 -18
Energy 52 55 64 -12
Immigration 37 41 47 -10
Health care 72 75 80 -8
Abortion 45 45 49 -4
Economy 86 89 90 -4
Jobs 81 84 84 -3
Budget deficit 68 66 70 -2
Education 72 65 69 +3
Taxes 66 69 63 +3
% of voters saying each is “Very important” to their vote
10
Campaign Interest and Engagement
ENGAGEMENT DOWN FROM 2008, PARTICULARLY AMONG YOUNG VOTERS
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
How much thought have you given to the coming presidential election…Quite a lot or only a little?
% given a lot of thought to the election 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Diff 2012 - 2008
All voters 69% 56% 58% 71% 78% 70% -8
Republican 72 65 66 75 81 72 -9
Democrat 74 57 58 70 79 71 -8
Independent 63 46 51 68 77 66 -11
18-29 58 46 41 57 65 48 -17
30-49 74 56 57 71 78 70 -8
50-65 68 59 66 76 86 75 -11
65+ 70 61 64 73 77 75 -2
White 70 56 60 72 80 70 -10
Black 66 50 54 64 76 76 - Based on registered voters. Figures from all years from September surveys
ALTHOUGH INTEREST IS DOWN, VOTER INTENT IS HIGH
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Source: Pew Research Center Poll, September 12-16, 2012
Based on registered voters. All figures are from September except definitely plan to vote from 2004 and 2000, which are from October
78% 78% 87% 84% 84%
69%
56% 59%
71% 78%
70%
47%
29% 27%
46% 50% 44%
1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Definitely plan to vote
Given a lot of thought to election
Following election news very closely
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Views of the Candidates
AMERICANS APPROVE OF OBAMA’S OVERALL JOB PERFORMANCE
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Source: Gallup Poll, September 17 – 23 , 2012
49% 45%
6%
Overall Job Approval Approve Disapprove No opinion
Please tell me if you approve or disapprove of the job that President Obama is doing on this issue…
Issue NET APPROVE
NET DISAPPROVE
Standing up for the middle class 58% 39%
Taxes 51% 46%
Foreign policy 50% 45%
Medicare 50% 44%
The economy 48% 51%
The federal budget and spending
40% 57%
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept. 16-20, 2012
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JOB APPROVAL RATINGS FOR INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Source: Historical Gallup Poll Data
Presidential Job Approval January March June October
2012: Barack Obama 44% 46% 47% ?
2004 George W. Bush 60% 49% 49% 50%
1996: Bill Clinton 42% 54% 58% 58%
1992: George H.W. Bush 46% 41% 37% 33%
1984: Ronald Reagan 52% 54% 55% 58%
1980: Jimmy Carter 56% 43% 32%
1976: Gerald Ford 56% 43% 32%
1972: Richard Nixon 49% 56% 59%
1964: Lyndon Johnson 77% 77% 74%
Selected dates, as available, in year of re-election
President’s in red lost re-election
Obama Averages 45% Job Approval in August
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Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
ROMNEY’S POPULARITY STAYS LOW, OBAMA IS VIEWED MORE FAVORABLY
UNFAVORABLE 43.4% FAVORABLE 52.2%
UNFAVORABLE 49.4% FAVORABLE 42.5%
As of September 28, 2012
Barack Obama Favorable Rating Mitt Romney Favorable Rating
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Source: Pew Research Center. 1988-2000 data from Gallup September Surveys
NO PREVIOUS CANDIDATE IN NEGATIVE TERRITORY IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING CONVENTIONS
52 54 59 62 53
63 55
40 39 35 30 42
34 42
Dukakis Clinton Clinton Gore Kerry Obama Obama
Favorable
Unfavorable
58 49 53 51 54
61
45 36
46 37 41 43
35 50
GHWB GHWB Dole GWB GWB McCain Romney
Favorable
Unfavorable
Democratic candidates
Republican candidates
Sept 1988 Sept 1992 Sept 1996 Sept 2000 Sept 2004 Sept 2008 Sept 2012
Based on registered
voters.
CRITICISM OF ROMNEY’S CAMPAIGN GROWS; SIX IN TEN RATE HIS EFFORTS NEGATIVELY
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54%
35% 43%
61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Obama's handling of his campaign Romney's handling of hiscampaign
FavorableUnfavorable
Overall, do you have a favorable or unfavorable impression of the way [Barack Obama / Mitt Romney] is running his presidential campaign?
Was 49% in July
Source: ABC News/Washington Post Poll, September 19-23, 2012
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Battle for the Presidency: The Horse Race
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OBAMA’S LEAD OVER ROMNEY GROWS TO OVER FOUR POINTS
Source: Pollster.com Aggregate Data
As of September 28, 2012
OBAMA 48.7%
ROMNEY 44.5%
+4.2
Sept 28, 2008 %
Obama 47.9
McCain 43.1
Obama +4.8
Sept 28, 2004 %
Bush 49.3
Kerry 43.4
Bush +5.9
A Look Back Four Years Ago Today
Eight Years Ago Today
Source: Real Clear Politics
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LIKELY VOTERS GIVE OBAMA THE EDGE ON MOST ISSUES
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012
Now I would like to read you a list of issues that some people have said are important to them. Please listen as I read the list and tell me, for each one, who will better handle this issue – Mitt Romney or Barack Obama?
45% 48% 49% 50% 52% 52% 50% 48% 48% 46%
43% 43%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
The federal budgetand spending
Jobs The economy Taxes Medicare Foreign policy
Obama Romney
Note: “Neither,” and “No opinion” results are not shown.
R +5
Tied O +1
O +4
O +9
O +9
22
Battleground States
23
OR
AK
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
3 12
7
55 6
4 3
6
11 5
9
3
3
5
4
3
4
38
29
6
7
10
6
10
6
8 6 9 16
29
9 15 13
11
20 11
10 16
18 20
8 5
THE ELECTORAL MAP
Electoral Count (as shown):
Romney: 191 Obama: 265 Toss-Up: 82
VT 3
NH 4
RI 4
NJ 14
CT 7
DE 3
MD 10
DC 3
MA 11
Source: Real Clear Politics (as of September 28, 2012)
OBAMA LEADS IN ALL TOSS-UP STATES
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Source: Real Clear Politics, as of September 28, 2012
States Obama Romney Obama Romney
Colorado 48.7% 45.8% 9 0
Florida 49.3% 46.1% 29 0
Iowa 48.4% 44.8% 6 0
Nevada 49.0% 45.2% 6 0
New Hampshire 47.3% 44.8% 4 0
North Carolina 47.8% 46.7% 15 0
Ohio 49.3% 43.9% 18 0
Virginia 49.1% 45.0% 13 0
Wisconsin 51.5% 43.7% 10 0
Swing State Voters 110 0
Leaning/Likely State Voters 237 191
Total Overall Votes 347 191
RCP POLL AVERAGE ELECTORAL VOTES
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Battle for Congress
2012 SENATE RACES TO WATCH
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Likely Dem (3) Lean Dem (6) Toss-Up (7) Lean Rep (1) Likely Rep (1) ME* (Open) –
Republican HI (Open) – Democrat
MT (Tester) – Democrat
AZ (Open) – Republican
NE (Open) – Democrat
PA (Casey) – Democrat
FL (Nelson) – Democrat
VA (Open) – Democrat
MI (Stabenow) – Democrat
OH (Brown) – Democrat
WI (Open) – Democrat
CT (Open) – Democrat
ND (Open) - Democrat
NM (Open) – Democrat
MA (Brown) – Republican
MO (McCaskill) – Democrat
NV (Heller) – Republican
IN (Open) – Republican
Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012 *Former Gov. Angus King is likely to caucus with the Democrats if he wins the open Maine seat
Democrats need to win 3 Toss-Up seats to retain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in ME, while losing a seat in NE.
Republicans need to win 6 Toss-Up seats to gain control of the Senate if they pick up a seat in NE, while losing a seat in ME.
LATEST SENATE POLL AVERAGES
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Source: Various Polls Accessed Through Real Clear Politics (as of September 27, 2012)
OR
KY
NM
MN
CO
GA
NC
NH
(8/20 – 9/19)
Rehberg : 46% Tester: 44%
MT
Heller: 43% Berkley: 42%
(9/18-9/20)
(9/11-9/23)
Baldwin: 49% Thompson: 44%
(8/22-9/11)
McCaskill: 48% Akin: 43%
Kaine: 49% Allen: 44%
(9/11-9/18)
(9/15-9/25)
King: 44% Summers: 32%
Dill: 14%
Warren: 47%
Brown: 46%
(9/13-9/24)
WI
NV
MO VA
ME
MA
AZ
Flake: 46% Carmona: 42%
(9/7-9/25)
ND
(5/3-7/11)
Berg: 49% Heitkamp: 44%
CT
(8/22-9/26)
Murphy: 44% McMahon: 41%
2012 HOUSE RACES TO WATCH
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Source: Roll Call, as of September 27, 2012
Retirements Democrats: 23 Republicans: 18
2012: 89 Freshman Republicans 9 Freshman Democrats If the election for CONGRESS were being
held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be voting for the Republican candidate or the Democratic candidate, in your congressional district?
45% 46%
9%
Republicancandidate
Democraticcandidate
Undecided(vol.)
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, Sept 16-20, 2012
AMONG REGISTERED LIKELY VOTERS
Republican Toss Up Races 1. CA-7 (Lungren) 2. CA-26 (Open – Gallegly) 3. CA-52 (Bilbray) 4. CO-3 (Tipton) 5. CO-6 (Coffman) 6. IL-11 (Biggert) 7. MN-8 (Cravaack) 8. NV-3 (Heck) 9. NH-2 (Bass) 10.NY-18 (Hayworth) 11.NY-19 (Gibson) 12.NY-24 (Buerkle) 13.OH-16 (Merged – Renacci) 14.TX-23 (Canseco)
Democratic Toss Up Races
1. GA-12 (Barrow) 2. IL-12 (Open-Costello) 3. MA-6 (Tierney) 4. NC-7 (McIntyre) 5. NY-21 (Owens) 6. NY-27 (Hochul) 7. PA-12 (Critz) 8. RI-1 (Cicilline) 9. UT-4 (Matheson)
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The Debates
NEARLY HALF OF LIKELY VOTERS PLAN TO WATCH ALL OF THE DEBATES
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Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012
49%
34%
7% 8% 2%
All Some A little None Unsure0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Now thinking about the Presidential debates and the Vice Presidential debate…
As you may know, in October Mitt Romney and Barack Obama will participate in three debates while Joe Biden and Paul Ryan will participate in one debate.
Do you plan to watch all, some, a little, or none of these debates?
FEW LIKELY VOTERS SAY DEBATES ARE EXTREMELY OR VERY IMPORTANT TO THEIR VOTE
31
Source: GW/Politico Battleground Poll, September 16-20, 2012
1%
38%
14%
24%
12%
11%
Unsure
Not at all important
A little important
Somewhat important
Very important
Extremely important
No matter how much of these debates that you plan to watch…
How important will these debates be to your decision on who to vote for President? Would you say that these debates will be extremely, very, somewhat, a little or not at all important in your voting decision for President?
23%
UPCOMING DEBATE SCHEDULE
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Date Debate Focus Wed, Oct. 3 First Presidential Debate Domestic policy
Thurs, Oct 11 Vice Presidential Debate Foreign and domestic topics
Tues, Oct 16 Second Presidential Debate Town meeting format
Mon, Oct 22 Third Presidential Debate Foreign policy
Source: Commission on Presidential Debates
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GPG Research
GPG has a full-scale internal research team offering the full complement of qualitative and quantitative public opinion research services. We use research to inform message development and communication strategy, as well as to help clients assess and monitor critical issues and track the effectiveness of strategic communication campaigns.
GPG has a deep experience conducting research about complex political topics with diverse audiences. We go beyond the standard Q&A, using innovative, projective techniques to uncover key insights. The result is actionable research that helps shape our clients’ messaging and strategy.
For more information about this presentation or to find out more about GPG’s research capabilities contact:
Joel Johnson ([email protected]) or David Cantor ([email protected])