The Population Trends That Are Reshaping Michigan Reynolds Farley Population Studies Center Institute for Social Research University of Michigan [email protected]Observations prepared for a conference organized by: GOVERNING and the American Association of Retired Persons Lansing, Michigan June 6, 2012
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The Population Trends That Are Reshaping Michigan
Reynolds FarleyPopulation Studies Center
Institute for Social ResearchUniversity of Michigan
FIGURE 8. Employment Change by Industry in Michigan and Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010, and Percent of Employment in Major Industrial Sectors, 2010
7.7%-10.8%
-0.1%-15.8%
-20.4%-29.3%
29.8%26.0%
16.4%-0.2%
-4.7%11.8%
-0.7%-30.5%
5.6%0.0%
11.7%-11.4%
14.8%-4.6%
30.6%19.0%
-21.6%-37.1%
13.8%-4.7%
13.6%
38.0%
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40%
Michigan Rest of U.S.
Michigan Rest of U.S.
NON-DURABLE MANUFACTURING
SOCIAL SERVICES
PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION
FINANCE, INSURANCE AND REAL ESTATE
CONSTRUCTION
REPAIR AND PERSONAL SERVICES
POST-SECONDARY EDUCATION
TOTAL EMPLOYMENT
TRANSPORTATION AND WAREHOUSING
5.7%6.4%
3.7%
100%
4.0%3.5%
4.0%5.2%
4.2%4.7%
4.7%6.2%
3.3%4.2%
4.1%
100%
3.0%3.0%
DURABLE GOODS MANUFACTURING
PROFESSIONAL, SCIENTIFIC AND MANAGEMENT SERVICES
ELEMENTARY AND SECONDARY EDUCATION
RETAIL TRADE18.7%
27.7%
12.7%6.5%
9.9%11.3%
5.9%6.2%
MEDICAL AND HEALTH SERVICES
11.9%10.6%
FIGURE 9. Economic Status of Persons Living in Michigan and Elsewhere in the United States: Per Capita Income for Residents 21 and Over, Median Household Income and Poverty Rate, 1950 to 2008
1950 1960 19801980
1970 1990 2000 2008 1950 1960 19801980
1970 1990 2000 2008
PER CAPITA INCOME$15,358
$23,273
$32,338$33,555
COMFORTABLE(Incomes 500% or more of the poverty line)
MIDDLE CLASS(Incomes 300% to 499% of the poverty line)
NEAR POOR(Incomes 100% to 199% of the poverty line)
IMPOVERISHED(Incomes below the poverty line)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MICHIGAN ELSEWHERE IN UNITED STATES
$34,574 $35,084
$40,333$13,982
$21,186
$28,851$30,846
$34,750 $38,370
$39,099
FIGURE 10. Job Growth Rates for States from January 2011 to April 2012 (Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Survey of Employers)
0.8%
1.4%
1.4%
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
2.2%
0.1%
2.9%
3.0%
3.0%
3.2%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-1% -1% 0% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3% 3% 4%
Wisconsin
New Hampshite
Rhode Island
Maine
Mississippi
Illinois
Total United State
Iowa
Ohio
Minnesota
Michigan
Indiana
North Dakota
Texas
Louisiana
Oklahoma
Utah
STATES WITH HIGHEST RATES OF NEW JOB GROWTH
NORTHWEST TERRITORY OR TRADITIONAL BIG TEN STATES
STATES WITH NO NET JOB GROWTH OR A LOSS OF JOBS
FIGURE 8. Index of Labor Productivity in Manufacturing for the Nation, 1990 to 2011: Number of Workers Needed in Years Past to Achieve Output of 100 Workers in 2011
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
NU
MB
ER
OF
WO
RK
ER
S
FIGURE 9. Population of Michigan Age 65 and Over, 1990 to 2030
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
MIL
LIO
NS
FIGURE 10. Percent Change in Employment in Michigan Metropolitan Areas, the Remainder of Michigan, and the Rest of the United States, 2000 to 2010
9.1%
-10.8%
-7.2%
-11.0%
-6.3%
-7.9%
-7.9%
-1.8%
-23.8%
-10.6%
-11.9%
1.9%
-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10%
Remainder of United States
Total State of Michigan
Remainder of Michigan
Saginaw-Bay City-Midland
Lansing-East Lansing
Kalamazoo-Battle Creek
Jackson
Grand Rapids-Muskegon
Flint
Detroit
Benton Harbor
Ann Arbor
FIGURE 11. Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Persons Aged 21 and Percent Change
in Constant Dollar Per Capita Income, 2000 to 2010, for Most Prosperous States, Big Ten States, and Least Prosperous States