1974 World Popïïfafion Year THE POPULATION OF ¿HAN CI.CR.EJX Series
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1974World Popïïfafion Year
THE POPULATIONOF
¿HAN
CI.CR.EJX Series
S.K. GAISIE, Regional Institute for Population Studies
and
K.T. de GRAFT-JOHNSON, Institute of Statistical,Social and Economic Research
University of Ghana, Legon
THE POPULATIONOF GHANA
CICRED 1976
CONTENTS
Page
CHAPTER I - POPULATION GROWTH 3
CHAPTER II - COMPONENTS OF POPULATION GROWTH -
Fertility, Mortality and International Migration 9
CHAPTER III - POPULATION COMPOSITION 31
CHAPTER IV - POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND INTERNAL
MIGRATION 56
CHAPTER V - THE LABOUR FORCE 76
CHAPTER VI - POPULATION GROWTH AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC
IMPLICATIONS 100
BIBLIOGRAPHY 129
APPENDIX - POPULATION PROJECTIONS 134
CHAPTER V
THE LABOUR FORCE
Introduction. The labour force of a country is made up of the employed andunemployed population. In Ghana, only those aged 15 years and
over who worked for pay or profit, or who had jobs but did not work, duringthe specified reference period are classified as employed.(1) The other compo-nent of the labour force, the unemployed, is made up of all those who were notemployed during the reference period but who, during the three months prece-ding the reference night, were actively seeking a job. A discouraged worker, thatis, a person who was not actively looking for a job because he had despaired offinding any, is also included among the unemployed population.
In line with the concepts used in the I960 and 1970 Population Censusof Ghana, this definition of the labour force restricts this category to only thoseaged 15 years and over. It is well known that in some countries, like Peru,persons aged 6-9 years can be considered as part of the labour force. Forexample, Peru, in 1961, recorded 0.5 per cent of its male urban population aged6-9 years to be in the labour force while the corresponding figure for the ruralarea was 0.6 per cent. Corresponding figures for the age-group 10-14 years were5.2 per cent and 7.4 per cent respectively. In Ghana, the 1970 PopulationCensus shows that of those aged 10-14 years, those stated to be in the labourforce was, for both sexes, 11.5 per cent (12.1 for males, and 10.8 for females).Information on those aged less than 10 years who were in the labour force isnot available since the questions on economic activity were restricted, in the1970 census, to persons aged 10 years and over. Most of the tabulations,however, are for 15 years and over, the age when a person is deemed to havequalified for entry into the labour force. The choice of 15 years as the startingage for entry into the labour force is due primarily to the fact that there arespecific laws prohibiting the employment of children in certain sectors ofindustry, excluding agriculture.
The Labour Decree of 1967 (NLC Decree No. 157) makes it quite clearthat it was the purpose of government legislation that no person below the ageof 15 years should be employed in any part of the modern sector of the
(1) Vol. IV of 1970 Population Census Report Economic Characteristics.Unpublished.
77
economy. Section 44 of this decree states that "no person shall employ a childexcept where the employment is with the child's own family and involves lightwork of an agricultural or domestic character only". Section 45 of the samedecree states "No employer shall employ a young person (a) in any industrialundertaking on night work, or (b) in any mine or underground work". In thiscontext, a child is defined as "any person under the apparent age of 15 years"and a young person as a "person under the apparent age of 18 years". The Actalso made it illegal for any person "who, in the opinion of the Chief LabourOfficer or a Labour Officer, is under the age of 16 years" to enter a contract foremployment as a clerk.
This Act merely updated the provision of earlier laws passed since Ghanabecame independent in 1957. The fact that the provisions of the 1967 Decreewere not extended to the agricultural sector or to domestic services was duemainly to the fact that such an act was hardly enforceable in the two sectors.But it is quite clear that the general purpose of this piece of government legisla-tion was to ensure that children aged — 6-14 years attend school.
This view is reinforced by the Education Act (No 871 of 1961). Section 2of this Act states :
"(1) Every child who has attained the school-going age determined by theMinister shall attend a course of instruction as laid down by the Ministerin a school recognised for that purpose by the Minister.
(2) Any parent who fails to comply with the provisions of the precedingsubsection commits an offence and shall be liable to summary conviction,to a fine not exceeding ten pounds and in the case of a continuing offence,to a fine not exceeding two pounds in respect of each and every dayduring which the offence continues".
The school-going age group was subsequently determined to be 6-14 years.Thus, it could be assumed that it was the Ghana Government's intention that allpersons aged 6 to 14 years should be attending some approved form of school.The government backed up this Act with firm action, resulting in the followingenrolment figures for public primary schools, class 1, for the period just beforethe passing of the Act to the period just after the Act became operative: (Ghana:Education Statistics 1968/69)
Year
1960-611961-621962-631963-641964-65
Enrolment in Class 1
Total
106,928231,784264,560253,693274,500
Boys
63,487131,659145,976138,130146,328
Girls
43,441100,125118,584115,563128,172
78
Due to the high cost of financing the universal primary education scheme,the Eduction Act was "suspended" after the Military Coup of 1966. This led toa gradual decline in enrolment figures for Primary Class 1 which by the 1968/9school year had declined to 189,263 (107,748 boys, 81,515 girls). The tempo-rary suspension of the Act was a move by the Ghana Government to conform tothe exigencies of the time and should not be construed as a total abandonmentof its social goal. Recently, however, there has been a petition from the chiefsin the Upper Region asking the Government to enforce the provisions of the1961 Act. Thus, the conclusion which one could draw from the original Actand the discussions which followed its suspension is that persons between theages of 6-14 years should attend school. This is why, in both the 1960 and1970 Population Census, persons in that age group were excluded from thelabour force.
In this chapter, a description of the demographic, social and economiccharacteristics of the labour force is given. The age-sex structure, the size andgrowth of the labour force, with appropriate measures of its relative size, areconsidered. In addition, some social characteristics of the economically-activepopulation, such as education, and the occupational and industrial structureof the labour force in 1970 are studied. Some comparisons are made withrelevant data obtained in the 1960 Population Census.
Size and Growth of As disclosed by the 1970 Population Census, Ghanathe Labour Force. had a labour force of 3,331,618 in 1970 (1,859,395
males and 1,472,223 females). These figures discountall persons aged less than 15 years who were either working or actively seekingwork. The corresponding figures for 1960 were (1,677,058 males and 1,045,968females). This implies that Ghana's labour force increased by 22.35 per cent asagainst the 27.24 per cent increase recorded by the total population. Thus, itis significant to note that Ghana's labour force grew at a slightly slower ratethan the total population. The recorded rate of growth of the total populationis 2.4 per cent per annum. However, if this rate of growth is adjusted for possibleover-enumeration in 1960, estimated to be between 0.6 and 2.5 per cent, (Giland de Graft-Johnson, 1964) and probable under-enumeration in 1970, theaverage growth rate will be much higher. The growth of the total populationis now estimated at 2.9 per cent. Thus, the adjusted rate of the labour forcewill be around 2.5 per cent per annum. This is a high rate of growth and hasimplications for employment, unemployment and under-employment whichwill be considered in the last chapter of this monograph.
It is necessary to stress, however, that although a high population growthrate need not necessarily lead to a high labour force growth rate, it usuallydoes. The explanation for this can be found by examining the breakdown ofthe economically inactive population for the 1970 Census. As shown in
19
Table 5.1, homemakers account for 625,430 (or 13.8 per cent) out of the totalpopulation aged 15 years or more of 4,543348. Students account for 8.6 percent. Thus, theoretically, an increase in the population aged 15 years and overcould be absorbed into the economically-inactive population if, for example, theupper age limit for compulsory education is raised by legislation. In practicalterms, however, the general effect of rapid population increase has been also togenerate a faster rate of growth of the labour force.
TABLE 5.1. - ECONOMICALLY-INACTIVE POPULATION OF GHANA (1970)BY SEX AND MAJOR CATEGORY OF INACTIVITY
Type of inactivity
All types ofinactivity
Hörnern akeis
Students
Vocationaltrainees
Disabled (incl.the aged)
Living on income
Voluntarilyunemployed
Others
Numbers
Total
1,211,670
625,430
392,006
4,590
166,250
8,108
9,134
6,152
Male
367,605
21,512
264,997
1,584
61,984
6,437
4,977
6,114
Female
844,065
603,918
127,009
3,006
104,266
1,671
4,157
38
Per cent
Total
100.0
51.6
32.3
0.4
13.7
0.7
0.8
0.5
Male
100.0
5.9
72.1
0.4
16.9
1.7
1.3
1.7
Female
100.0
71.5
15.0
0.4
12.4
0.2
0.5
0.0
Sex-age Structure of the Table 5.2 shows the sex-age structure of the labourLabour Force. force. As is to be expected, all the age-specific sex
ratios exceed 100. This is a natural phenomenonsince traditionally males have been the bread-winners. What is, however, strikingis that the sex-ratios all lie within the range 109.4 to 235.9, suggesting a ratherhigh female participation in the labour force.
The age distribution of the labour force is the usual pattern expected incountries which have reached the stage of development of Ghana. Since educa-tion has an inhibiting effect on participation rates and since the age-group 1549years covers middle, secondary, commercial and technical school attendants, therelative number of persons of either sex in this age-group who are in the labourforce is small. Of some significance is the surprisingly large number of persons inthe labour force in the age-group 65 and over. A number of reasons account forthis, the main one being the need for persons in this age group to receive an
80
income on which to live. Although a social security scheme was introduced inGhana about ten years ago, the scheme does not cover self-employed personsand agricultural workers. Thus, for this category of workers, there is no insu-rance against old age except in the traditional family system. The more this sys-tem proves incapable of ensuring an adequate source of income for the aged, themore many of them will continue to work, even when they are past the agewhen one would not normally expect them to do so. It should, however, bementioned that of the number stated to be aged 85 years and over and still inthe labour force, some of them may have had wrong ages recorded for them. Thequestion of age mis-statements in censuses in Africa is a well-known problemand needs no further elaboration in this section.
TABLE 5.2. - LABOUR FORCE BY SEX AND AGE (ABSOLUTE NUMBERS ANDPERCENTAGES) AND SEX-RATIOS
Age
(1)
Total15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-4445-4950-5455-5960-6465-6970-7475-7980-84
85 and over
Absolute numbers
Total
(2)
3,331,618317,554483,057498,838469,261377,161307,438240,251203,902122,658119,507
70,32056,30825,38720,81319,163
Male
(3)
1,859,395168,829252,416276,983257,051216,902170,629140,440115,559
72,82468,98541,24334,25516,27613,54513,458
Female
(4)
1,472,223148,725230,641221,855212,210160,259136,80999,81188,34349,83450,52229,07722,0539,1117,2685,705
Percentage
Total
(5)
100.09.5
14.515.114.111.3
9.27.26.13.73.62.11.70.70.60.6
Male
(6)
100.09.1
13.615.013.811.79.27.66.23.93.72.21.80.80.70.7
Female
(7)
10010.115.615.114.410.9
9.36.86.03.43.42.01.50.60.50.4
Sex
ratio
126.3113.5109.4124.8121.1135.3124.7140.7130.8146.1136.5141.8155.3178.6186.4235.9
The relationship between the age structure of the labour force and thatof the total population aged 15 years or more is brought out more clearly inTable 5.3 which shows the labour force participation rates for each specified agegroup. This table is examined more closely in section 5.6 below.
Crude Activity Rates. Several measures of the absolute and relative size of thelabour force are generally applied to describe certain
aspects of the demographic dimension of the labour force. In the precedingparagraph, the absolute size of the labour force was discussed. In what follows,
81
the discussion will focus mainly on four measures of the labour force — thecrude activity rate, the refined activity rate, the age-specific activity rate and theage-standardised activity rate.
The crude activity rate is defined as the percentage of the populationclassified in the census as being in the labour force. In the U.N. Manual onMethods of Analysing Census Data on Economic Activities of the Population(U.N. 1968), it is stated that "the crude activity rate has an obvious economicsignificance : the higher this rate, the higher is the level of income per head thatcan be achieved under given conditions of productivity and extent of em-ployment of the labour force". But the Manual goes on to add that "theapparent advantage of a high crude activity rate is partly illusory if it is achievedby many women being engaged in paid employment instead of unpaid work inthe home", that is, the crude activity rate ignores the fact that homemakers arealso producers of goods and services.
Whatever its advantages or disadvantages as a measure of the well-beingof a nation, the crude activity rate is one of the accepted measures of the relativesize of the labour force. Table 5.3 shows the crude activity rates for 1960 and1970 by regions.(l) It shows that for the total country and for both sexestogether, the crude activity rate decreased from 40.5 in 1960 to 38.9 in 1970.This decline is due to the fact that the rate of increase of the labour forcelagged behind that of the total population. As explained above, the rate ofincrease of the labour force is about 86 per cent of that of the total popula-tion. Thus, if present trends continue, the crude activity rate for both sexeswill continue to decline in the future.
It is relevant to mention that the reduction in the crude activity rate isaccounted for mainly by a substantial reduction in the male crude activityrate, from 49.3 in 1960 to 43.8 in 1970. The female crude activity rate,however, showed a slight increase from 31.4 per cent to 34.1 reflecting thefact that more women are leaving their unpaid jobs in the home for paid jobsoutside.
There is an interesting feature of the crude activity rates for 1960 and1970, which is worth noting. While in 1960 the female crude activity ratewas substantially lower than the male crude activity rate in all regions, in 1970,two regions, the Central and Volta Regions, recorded female crude activity rateshigher than the male crude activity rates. The relevant figures are :
CentralVolta
Male
40.239.5
Female
43.040.1
(1) Table 3 is reproduced from de Graft-Johnson, K.T. Ewusi, K. Appiah, R.: TheDeterminants of Labour force Participation rates in Ghana. An unpublished study.
82
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In both regions, the sex ratio for the total population was less than 100. Theunusual feature of female crude activity rates being greater than those for malescould be explained by an excess of males over females in age group 0-14 years.The relevant figures are for Central region, 215,102 males as against 208,811and for Volta Region 225,843 males as against 224,970 females in age groups0-14.
Refined Activity Rate. The second measure of the relative size of the labourforce is the refined activity rate which is defined as
the proportion of the potential labour force which is actually in the labourforce. This definition, in terms of Ghana's ¿efiniiions and concepts, becomes:the proportion of persons aged 15 years and over who are either employed (i.e.worked or had job but did not work, during the reference period) or unem-ployed (i.e. did not work and had no job but were actively seeking for one ordid not try to find a job because they had despaired of finding any). The refinedactivity rate is usually preferred to the crude activity rate because it is a "truerate" and is usually "free from the distortion produced by the presence, invarying proportions, in the population of children too young to be classifed aseconomically active". (U.N. 1960 and 1968) This is clearly illustrated in theexamples of Central and Volta Regions described above. The refined activity ratefor Ghana as a whole was, in 1970,73.3 per cent for both sexes (83.5 for malesand 63.6 for females). This figure shows a slight increase over the 1960 propor-tion of 73.0 for both sexes but for the adult males, the 1960 figure was higher(89.0) while the female figure was significantly lower (56.7). The tendency forhousewives to seek paid jobs out of the home is a phenomenon which usuallyaccompanies development. Thus the trend observed in the increase of theproportion of women in the labour force between 1960 and 1970 conforms tothis pattern.
In what follows, we will mention briefly certain features of the refinedactivity rates by regions which are of interest. The refined activity rates forfemales are high, except in the Northern and Upper Regions. In the NorthernRegion, the refined activity rates increased from 15.9 to 30.3, both rates beingless than half of the national average for the two Census years. For the UpperRegion also, the rate increased from as low as 22.0 to a relatively low figure of30.3. There have been suggestions that the relatively low rates recorded for theNorthern and Upper Regions may be due to the fact that both the 1960 and1970 censuses were conducted in March, which is the off-season for farmers inthe Northern. Thus, housewives who are also farmers or farm workers during thefarming season were classified as homemakers since this was the principaleconomic activity during the four weeks preceding Census Night. But this view isonly partly supported by the results of the 1960 Post-enumeration SampleSurvey (Census office 1964) which was held two and half months after the 1960
84
Census, between June and July, 1960. The Report on this survey showed thatfor the present Northern and Upper Regions combined, the female refinedactivity rate was 32.7 as compared to the 1960 Census figure of 19.7. Althoughthe change in enumeration period led to the refined activity rate nearly doublingitself, the rate, however, remained low in comparison with the rates for the otherregions of Ghana. This leads us to conclude that female participation in thelabour force is, up to date, relatively low in the Northern and Upper Regions.
Age-specif¡c Activity Rates. The next measure to consider is the age-specificactivity rate. The age-specific activity rate, by
measuring the proportion of the potential labour force in each age-group whichis actually in the labour force, makes it possible for a more detailed demogra-phic analysis of the labour force. Tables 5.4 (a) and 5.4 (b) show the age-specificactivity rates by sex and region for 1970. Corresponding rates for 1960 for thequinquennial groups 15-19 years up to 60-64 and 65 years and over can becomputed from Table 1 of Vol IV of the 1960 Census Report. From thesecomputations it is noted that for both sexes in 1960, the labour force partici-pation rates reached their peak in the age group 50-54. For males, the peakwas reached much earlier in age group 35-39, while for females the peak wasreached later in the group 55-59. There are slight regional variations. There aresociological factors which tend to explain these phenomena. Women completetheir reproductive cycle by age 49. By 50-54 years of age, therefore, they areready for the labour market, since they would no longer be detained in theirhomes through either child-bearing or child-caring. Another factor accountingfor the peak in activity rates for women at age 50-54 is the marital status ofwomen. The 1960 PES for Ghana showed that of every 100 women above theage of 15, 8.5 were never married, 75.1 were married, 7.2 per cent were divorcedand 9.2 widowed. The results also show that there is a steep rise in proportionof widows and divorcees from age groups 45-49 to age group 50-54. For agegroup 4549, widows constitute 15.2 per cent of the population and divorcees11.9, resulting in a combined total of 27.1 for both widows and divorcees.For age group 50-54, the combined total is 37.9 per cent (23.0 per cent forwidows and 14.9 per cent for the divorced). It would seem, therefore, thatthere is some justification in assuming that when women become divorced orwidowed, there is a tendency for those of them who were housewives to jointhe labour market and that this occurs more in age-group 50-54 than in thepreceding age-groups.
The 1970 data vary slightly from the 1960 pattern. The peak for bothsexes is reached in age-group 4549, for males in age group 35-39 and for females50-54. Thus the trend from 1960 to 1970 seems to suggest that the rate ispeaking out in each case much earlier in 1970 than in 1960 and this peaking outis occurring in the preceding quinquennial age-group. It should, however, be
85
pointed out that the corresponding rate for age-group 50-54 for both sexes is88.1. Since there is considerable age mis-statement in censuses and surveys inAfrica, too much emphasis cannot be placed on the difference between the tworates of 88.3 and 88.1. The difference in the age-group in which the peak occursin 1960 and 1970 could very well be due to erroneous reporting of age andnot to any economic or social factors.
For the 1970 data, the lowest participation rate among males of 42.3 percent occurs in the age group 15-19 where school attendance usually exercises aninhibiting effect on labour force participation rates. The corresponding figuresfor urban and rural areas are 36.7 and 44.9. The next lowest participation rateoccurs in age-group 85 and over, where the rate of 51.1 (urban 39.7 and rural53.2) can be regarded as rather high. The absence of old age insurance and othersuperannuation schemes among large sections of the labour force and age mis-reporting may account for these relatively high rates.
For the female population, the lowest activity rates occur among agegroups 85 and over and 80-84, (the figures for the former being 21.9 (urban16.8 and rural 23.5) and for the latter, 35.5 (urban 28.0 and rural 37.7). Theage-group (15-19) is the third in the ranking from the lowest to the highest:.39.2 (urban 35.8 and rural 41.0).
The slight difference in the ranking of males and females could be attri-buted mainly to the fact that the men who survive to an old age usually retaintheir,position as head of household and are, of necessity, forced to engage insome form of economic activity even though their efforts and the returnsfrom this activity may be minimal.
It is also worth noting that the assumption usually made by social scien-tists that nearly all males in the age group 25-54 are in the labour force issupported by the data in Table 5.4 (a), the activity rate for this age-groupbeing in excess of 95.5.
Age-Standardised Activity Table 6 of de Graft-Johnson et al. shows theRates. age-standardised activity rates for males and
females separately. They represent the weightedaverages of the relevant age-specific activity rates, using as weights the pro-portionate shares in the total population age 15 years and over of the specifiedage-groups. This is the so-called "Direct" standardisation Method. (Shryocket al. 1971). It has been observed that "differences between age-standardisedand unstandardised (crude or refined) activity rates represent the effects ofvariations of population age-composition, subject to reservations as regardsthe interdependence and interaction of factors". [U.N. 1968].
In that study, [de Graft-Johnson et al] it is observed "that the ruralage-standardised activity rate for males, exceeds the urban rate by 3.8 per cent
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while the female urban rate exceeds the rural rate by 0.8 per cent". It maybe noted from the same tables that the rural unstandardised activity rate formales aged 15 years and over exceeds the urban rate by 3.3 per cent, thussuggesting that there is an urban-rural differential in the age-composition ofthe total population which is exerting some influence on the relative sizes ofthe labour force in the different age groups. For the female population, thereis a complete reversal of the order of magnitude for the unstandardised ratesfor urban and for rural as compared to the standardised rates. As stated earlierthe standardised rate for urban exceeds that for rural. However, the unstan-dardised rate shows that the urban rate is less than the rural rate by 1.2 percent.
Another point worthy of note is that while for the male urban populationaged 15 years and over the unstandardised rate is higher than the standardisedrate by 0.4 per cent, for the rural population, it is less by just 0.1 per cent.Slightly more marked differences are found in the rates for the female popula-tion aged 15 years and over. The unstandardised activity rate for urban is 1.6per cent less than the standardised rate and for rural, it is 0.4 per cent higher.
These differences can be attributed to the imbalances in the age-sexcomposition of the urban and rural areas due to age-selective migration anddifferences in the fertility and mortality levels between the urban and ruralsegments of the population.
The results show that for both males and females the difference betweenurban and rural rates was not large. The lack of significant difference betweenthe urban and rural rates for females is very striking. This pattern is especiallysurprising to those who have not observed the active role that women play indevelopment in both the urban and rural areas of Ghana.
Education. Information on the labour force by sex and type of school attendedis not at present available from the 1970 Census. However, since
the employed population forms 94 per cent of the total labour force, the educa-tional characteristics of the employed would dominate those of the total labourforce, and thus could be taken as portraying the essential features of the labourforce. Tables 5.5 and 5.6 show the distribution of the main occupations by sexand type of school attended. One of the main features noticeable from the dis-tribution is the fact that the labour force is made up predominantly of thosewho have not been to school. Of the employed males, 63.5 per cent had neverbeen to school as compared to 82.7 per cent for females.
Of the main occupations, the per cent never attented shool for femalesin the group Administrative and Managerial Workers strikes one as strange butwhen one considers the fact that this group includes contractors and managers,then the proportion never attended school for both male and female is under-standable .
89
If we take school attendance as an index of literacy, then the most literategroup of workers, as measured by proportion with any type of schooling, isClerical Workers followed by Professional, Technical and Related Workers andAdministrative and Managerial Workers. The existence of illiteracy among theclerical workers could be attributed partly to processing errors, which are alwayspresent in gigantic operations like censuses and partly to the practice in certainareas of appointing persons to jobs for which they are not qualified. Thus, theilliterate in the detailed occupation group "Clerical Workers not elsewhereclassified" might be symptomatic of this type of situation. The never-attended-school among the Professional, Technical and Related Workers come from theminor occupation "Workers in religion".
Table 8 or Vol. IV of the 1960 Census Report [Census office 1960] showsimilar results in relation to the employed population of 1960. There the never-attended-school among professional, technical and related workers were to befound mainly among professional medical workers not elsewhere specified(mainly native physicians, herbalists, jujumen and fortune tellers) and clergyand related members of religious orders (mainly fetish priests). Also for theemployed population in 1960, the "Administrative, executive and managerialworkers" who had never been to school were to be found in the occupation"chiefs and related elected officials". As in 1970, the clerical workers with noschool attendance were to be found in the occupation "Clerical Workers notelsewhere classified".
Although we have made reference to both occupations in 1960 and1970, it is worth noting that the Standard National Classification of Occu-pations (SNOCS of Ghana) used in both censuses differed in some respectsand only approximate comparisons are intended in the statements made above.It is also worth noting that in 1960 Arabic school attendants were includedamong those who have attended school but in 1970 those who attended Arabicschools where only the reading and writing of the Koran were taught wereregarded as belonging to the category "never attended school". However, atten-dants of schools where Arabic was taught in addition to other subjects taughtin regular schools were regarded as having been to school.
To summarise, Ghana's labour force as portrayed by the employed popula-tion is largely illiterate and low in skill — a not too surprising result since onlyabout 30.2 per cent of the population aged 15 years and over is literate.
Occupation. The 1960 Post-Enumeration Survey and the 1971 SupplementarySurvey both enquired into the occupations of the labour force.
The results of the 1960 Census are shown in Tables G 10 and G 11 of Vol. I of theCensus Report. [Census Office 1960] However, the results of the 1971 Supple-mentary Enquiry are not yet available. For comparative purposes, therefore, weshall again use the characteristics of the employed population as approximating
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those of the labour force. As previously explained, this is a reasonable assump-tion since the employed population constitutes 94 per cent of the labour force.
It is to be noted from Table 44 of the Advance Report of the 1960 Census[Census office 1962] that "Farmers, fishermen, hunters, loggers and relatedworkers" constitute the major section of the employed population (males 62.8per cent and females 56.1 per cent), "sales workers" and "craftsmen, productionprocess workers and labourers not elsewhere specified" made up most of theremainder ; the former contributing males, 4.3 per cent and females, 28.2 percent and the latter males, 18.7 per cent and females, 103 per cent. There were,of course, regional differences. Accra CD. (now known as Greater AccraRegion), for example, had more of its employed population in the major occupa-tion group "Craftsmen, production process workers and labourers n.e.s." Therelevant figures were : males, 40.9 per cent, females, 12.9 per cent. Agriculturalworkers made up only a small proportion of the employed population, 16.6 percent for males and 5.5 per cent for females.
The picture in 1970 is similar to that of 1960. Tables 5.7 and 5.8 show thedistribution of the employed population by sex and main occupation in absolutenumbers and percentages respectively. Again, the major occupation group "Agri-cultural, Animal Husbandry and Forestry Workers, Fishermen and Hunters"continues to dominate the employed population. The relevant figures are : males,1,026,530 (or 56.75 per cent) and females, 771,726 (or 54.53 per cent). Thesefigures represent a drop in the corresponding figures for 1960. In 1970 as in1960, there were interesting regional differences. Brong Ahafo had the highestproportion of employed population in the Agricultural Workers group; males,128,147 (or 76.42 per cent), females, 104,519 (or 77.66 per cent), GreaterAccra Region had the highest rankings in the proportions employed in the threemain occupations; "Professional, Technical and Related Workers!' "Administra-tive and Managerial Workers" and "Clerical Workers". The relevant figures aremales, 8.91 per cent and females 5.11 per cent, males, 2.09 per cent and females0.23 per cent; males 14.11 per cent, females 6.23 per cent respectively. This isnot surprising since Greater Accra is composed of the twin cities of Accra andTema which contain most of the industrial establishments in Ghana in additionto it being the seat of Government. In this monograph, it will not be possible tolook at all the differences in proportions in various occupations between regionsand account for them. It is hoped, however, that the preceding short discussionhas highlighted some of the interesting results in Tables 5.7 and 5.8.
Industrial Structure. In this section also, we shall take the industrial structureof the employed population as approximating that of the
labour force. In this connection, it is to be noted that the industry of a personis defined as the major product or service of the establishment in which theperson works. Thus, though some occupations are highly correlated with some
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industries, occupation and industry are not identical. For example, membersof the occupation group "Agricultural, Animal Husbandry and Forestry Wor-kers, Fishermen and Hunters" usually work in the industrial sector, "Agricul-ture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing" but not always. An agricultural worker canbe employed by a non-agricultural establishment.
Table 41 of the Advance Report of the 1960 Census (Census Office 1962)already referred to gives the main industries of employed persons aged 15 yearsand over. This shows that 63.7 per cent of employed males, and 58.3 per centof employed females were engaged in agriculture. The corresponding figuresfor 1970 as shown in Table 5.10 are males, 59.0 per cent and females, 54.5 percent. Manufacturing increased its share of the employed population from males,8.7 per cent, females, 10.0 per cent in 1960 to males, 9.7 per cent and females,15 per cent in 1970. Again there are regional differences. Greater Accra and theVolta Regions had relatively high proportions of both males and females em-ployed population in manufacturing: males, 19.7 per cent, females, 23.1 andmales, 11.5 per cent and females, 17.4 per cent respectively. The WesternRegion, as was to be expected, ranked first in both 1960 and 1970 in the pro-portion of employed population employed in Mining and Quarrying. In 1960,6.5 per cent of employed males and 0.5 per cent of employed females workedin Mining and Quarrying establishments. The corresponding figures for 1970are males 6.8 per cent and females 0.4 per cent. It must be pointed out,however, that the 1960 Western Region is not the same as the 1970 WesternRegion. The 1960 Western Region included the present Central Region andthus direct comparisons between the two Western Regions are slightly mislea-ding. But it is safe to assume that the present Western Region ranked first inMining and Quarrying also in 1960. The over-concentration of constructionworkers in the Greater Accra Region is shown in the fact that in 1960 as wellas 1970, the region had the greatest proportion of employed persons in cons-truction. The figures for 1960 were, males, 18.9 per cent, females, 1.5 percent. The corresponding figures for 1970 were: males, 10.7 per cent and females0.8. The drop in proportions between 1960 and 1970 is due to the general slow-down in construction which followed immediately after the 1966 coup whichoverthrew the Nkrumah regime. In "wholesale, retail trade and restaurants andhotels," Greater Accra region dominated the other regions. It is, however, to benoted that female participation in this industrial sector was relatively high inall regions, Greater Accra recording the highest rate of 54.5 per cent. Similardifferences in proportions in the remaining industrial sectors exist but theycannot all be considered in this monograph.
Unemployment. Although in this chapter the discussion has related mainly tothe characteristics of the labour force, it is relevant to consi-
der some characteristics of the unemployed, one of the components of the la-
97
bour force. The unemployment rate for Ghana in both 1960 and 1970 was6.0 per cent per annum. There are regional differences as shown below. Thestated rates are for 1970:
Western 5.9Central 5.0Greater Accra 9.6Eastern 5.7Volta 3.5Ashanti 7.0Brong-Ahafo 3.8Northern 2.0Upper 10.0
From the above, it is noted that the highest unemployment rates were recordedin Upper, Greater Accra and Ashanti regions. The figure for the Upper regionmay be due to the timing of the census - March - which is within the off-seasonfor farming. Although the census concepts took note of the timing of the censusand made it clear that farmers and farm-workers off-season were to be classi-fied as "had job but did not work"and were thus to be included with the em-ployed, it appears that in the Upper Region a large number of persons whoseprevious occupation was farm-workers were classified as unemployed. Thereasons for this apparent misclassification are now being studied. It is, howe-ver, relevant to note that in the Supplementary Enquiry which was conductedabout eighteen months after the 1970 Census during the farming season, theunemployment rate for the Upper region was much lower and was similar tothat obtained for the Northern region.
In a previous study by de Graft Johnson [de Graft-Johnson 1974] hefound out that if the Upper and Ashanti Regions are ignored, the unemploy-ment rates for the local authorities in the remaining regions were highly corre-lated with degree of urbanisation (i.e. the proportion of persons in the localauthority living in localities with a population of 5,000 or more). The correla-tion coefficients were 0.5 for males and 0.6 for females. This confirms the viewoften expressed that unemployment is worse in urban centres. In the total coun-try, the urban rate is 8.6 while the rural rate is 4.9, among those aged 15 yearsand above.
Not only are there urban/rural and regional differentials in unemploymentrates, there are also age-specific differences. For the total country, the unemploy-ment rates among those aged 15-19 is the highest: 24.9 per cent as against0.5 per cent for those aged 65 and over. This is an expected pattern, sinceunemployment rates among middle-school leavers, mainly in the age-group15-19 years, are expected to be high.
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Conclusion. In this monograph, it has not been possible to cover all aspects ofthe demographic, social and economic characteristics of the labour
force. This has been due mainly to the fact that data from the 1971 Supplemen-tary Enquiry are not yet available in the form which will make it possible for ananalysis of the information to be included in this publication. The projections ofthe labour force are dealt with in a later chapter.
CHAPTER VI
POPULATION GROWTHAND SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS*
This chapter discusses the implications of population growth under variousassumptions of fertility and mortality changes on selected socio-economicindicators. It is divided into two main sections : population projections for theperiod 1960-2000; and the socio-economic implications of such projections.
Sources, Assumptions The estimated age and sex distribution and the recordedand Methods. 1960 total population of Ghanaian origin(l) [see Gaisie
1974 Chapter V] were used to derive the base popula-tion for the projections. No attempt was made to adjust the 1960 Census popu-lation for the so-called over-enumeration of between 0.6 and 2.5 per centbecause the procedure employed in deriving these estimates appears to have abuilt-in mechanism for exaggerating the apparent under-enumeration in thePost-Enumeration Survey (PES) and consequently biasing the estimates ofover-enumeration in the 1960 Census. Moreover, the coverage of the 1960Population Census was, to all intents and purposes, better than that of thePost-Enumeration Survey and the estimation of the extent of coverage ofthe former by the latter leaves much to be desired. This fact been noted bythe planners of the 1960 Census and the Post-Enumeration Survey in a paperpresented at the 38th Session of the International Statistical Institute in 1971where de Graft-Johnson and Gil made the following observations:
"It has been assumed in the past that sample surveys offered a betterquality of data than complete censuses. This higher quality of informa-tion was implied in both response and coverage. These assumptions, atleast the one relating to coverage, cannot be confirmed by African ex-periences. Most of the sample surveys done in Black Africa for whichreports are available seem to suggest that sample surveys have poorercoverage" (de Graft-Johnson and Gil, 1971: I).
(*) In this chapter we have drawn extensively on Chapter VII of Planned FertilityReduction in Ghana (authors Gaisie S.K. and David A.S.) (in press).
(1) That is, population of Ghanaians excluding persons of foreign origin who wereborn in Ghana.
101
It was decided therefore to accept the recorded figures at their facevalue rather than to rely on the adjusted ones based on estimates of possibleover-enumeration in the census. There is no doubt that there might have beenover-enumeration and under-enumeration in certain specific areas but the neteffect of these opposing factors cannot be determined in the light of the availa-ble demographic information with any amount of confidence.
In the absence of any convincing evidence to the contrary, therefore, therecorded total population of 5,899,334 was used as the base population for theprojections. Lack of reliable data on international migrants and the 'disturbance'of the foreign origin population (i.e. foreign born and other foreign origin popu-lation) by the enforcement of the 1969 Alien Compliance Order in late 1969and early 1970 (see Gaisie, "Population Policy and its Implementation" inCaldwell et. al. (eds.), 1974), have rendered the estimation of the existing andthe future alien population a very risky exercise, at least for the present mo-ment. The number of 'aliens' who left Ghana just before the 1960 Census andthe number who have presumably returned since the overthrow of the Busiaregime is unknown. Secondly, fear of insecurity among those who remainedbehind might have had an adverse effect on the size of the non-Ghanaian com-ponent of the Ghana population as recorded in the 1970 Census. Thus, anyreasonable estimate of the population of foreign origin (i.e. including bothforeign born and foreign origin population) must await fresh informationfrom the 1970 Census.
Assumptions.
a) Mortality
The estimated rates of improvement in life expectancies (i.e. 0.33 yearsper year in the early 1940's; 0.5 years per year between the 1950's and 1960's;and between 0.6 and 0.7 years per year for the remainder of the century — seeGaisie 1974, Chapter IV) and the estimated life expectancies at birth of 43.1years for males and 45.7 years for females in 1960 (Table 6.1) formed the basisof the mortality assumptions. Because of uncertainty with regard to futuretrends in mortality, the following three mortality assumptions about possiblerates of increase in life expectancy were employed:
(1) life expectancy at birth would increase by 2.5 years per quinquenniumduring the entire projection period;
(2) life expectancy at birth would increase by 2.5 years per quinquenniumbetween 1960 and 1970 and by 3.0 years between 1970 and 2000;
(3) life expectancy at birth would increase by 2.5 years per quinquenniumduring the 1960's and by 3.5 years between 1970 and 2000.
102
The estimated life expectancy values used in the projections are presentedin Table 6:1; the corresponding survival ratios were interpreted from Coale-Demeny North model life tables (see Gaisie 1974, Chapter IV). On the basis ofthe assumptions stated above, the male life expectancy at birth is expected toincrease from 43.1 years in 1960 to between 60.6 years and 66.6 years in 2000,depending on which rate of increase proves to be realistic. The correspondingfigures for females are 45.7 in 1960 and between 63.2 years and 69.2 years in2000 (Table 6:1). Experience in other developing countries shows that it is notunlikely for the rate of increase in life expectancy to rise more rapidly thanit is assumed in these projections but the available materials do not providestrong basis for being too optimistic as far as Ghana is concerned and the rateof increase of 0.7 years per year used in one set of the projections is consideredto be the most plausible high estimate.
TABLE 6.1. - LIFE EXPECTANCY (*) VALUES USED IN THEPROJECTIONS FOR GHANA, BY SEX,1960-2000
Period(Years)
1960-651965-701970-751975-801980-851985-901990-951995-2000
Assumption 1
Male
43.145.648.150.653.155.658.160.6
Female
45.748.250.753.255.758.260.763.2
Assumption 2
Male
43.145.648.651.654.657.660.664.6
Female
45.74.8.251.254.257.260.263.266.2
Assumption 3
Male
43.145.649.152.656.156.663.166.6
Female
45.748.251.755.258.762.264.769.2
(*) i.e. life expectancy at birth.
b) Fertility
The calculation of future births was based on the estimated total fertilityratio of 6.9 and age structure of fertility for 1960(1) (see Gaisie 1974, Chap-ter III). The total fertility ratio was fed into the estimated relative age distribu-tion of the age-specific fertility rates and the annual number of births was cal-culated by multiplying the average number of women in the five-year reproduc-tive age groups at the mid-point of the quinquennium by the corresponding agespecific fertility rates. The total number of births for the quinquennium was then
(1) It must be noted that the models of age structure of fertility based on the Post-Enumeration Survey and the 1968 survey data on the proportion of ever-married femalesby age are virtually the same. It may be inferred from the findings therefore that therehas not been any significant change in age pattern of fertility since 1960.
103
obtained by multiplying the estimated annual births by 5. This procedure wasintended to take into account any changes in the age structure of the females(i.e. aged 15-49) as they progress towards the terminal projection year.
Unlike mortality, fertility levels prevailing in Ghana appear to have re-mained relatively constant over the past decades and there is no indication ofany decline in fertility in the immediate future. It is too early to expect anysignificant changes in the levels of fertility resulting from the National FamilyPlanning Programme and no one can predict when declines in fertility willbegin to set in. In view of the difficulty involved in tracing the possible pathsof fertility trends and also in view of the tremendous impact which changingfertility has on the age structure, which is of paramount importance in thedetermination of the socio-economic impact of population change and thefuture population trends, Ghana's population was projected under four differentfertility assumptions. The four sets of projections are referred to as Series A, B,C and D ; the underlying fertility assumption in each of these series is outlinedbelow:
(1) Series A: Fertility level would remain constant throughout the projec-tion years (i.e. 1960-2000).
(2) Series B: The total fertility ratio would remain constant for the firsttwenty-five years and thereafter decline linearly from 6.9 to 5.0 by theyear 2000, a decline of about 28 per cent between 1985 and 2000.
(3) Series C - i.e. rapidly declining fertility: The fertility ratio woulddecline linearly as from 1985 to 4.0 in 2000, a decline of about 42per cent.
(4) Series D — very rapidly declining fertility: It is assumed in this seriesthat the total fertility ratio would be more than slightly halved by theend of the century (i.e. 6.9 to 3.0 between 1985 and 2000). It is envi-saged in this series that the impact of the family planning programmewould be sharply felt towards the end of the projection period thoughit is not very likely that a reduction in the fertility level by more than50 per cent would occur within the period of fifteen years. Neverthe-less, Series D3 provides a model for the examination of the effects ofa very rapidly declining fertility on the population structure andgrowth in relation to that generated in the other series (Table 6.2).
The basic data and the mortality and fertility assumptions were fed into acomputer programme and twelve sets of projected populations classified by ageand sex were obtained. In order to simplify the preparation of the summary ofthe results and the implications of the projections, the discussion which followswill be confined to what we refer to here as Series A3, B 3 , C3 and D3 ; thesubscript indicates the mortality changes assumed in the series (i.e. assumption(3) above)(l) [See following page for note (1)].
104
TABLE 6.2. - TOTAL FERTILITY RATE IN GHANA: 1960-2000
Year
1960-651965-701970-751975-801980-851985-901990-951995-2000
Series A
6.96.96.96.96.96.96.96.9
Series B
6.96.96.96.96.96.35.75.0
Series C
6.96.96.96.96.95.95.04.0
Series D
6.96.96.96.96.95.64.33.0
Total Population of Table 6.3 shows the recorded and projected population ofGhana Origin. Ghana origin for the period 1960 to 2000- There is vir-
tually no difference between the projected population upto 1985, but thereafter, due to the impact of the assumed differential declines infertility underlying the four series, they begin to show remarkable differences(see Figure 6.1). In the absence of any changes in the level of fertility (SeriesA3), the population would double by 1982, a period of less than 25 years, andby the year 2000 there would be nearly four Ghanaians for every one in 1960.Even a reduction of 28 per cent in fertility by 2000 would result in an increase of3 ~ fold in the population by the end of the century (series B3), implying thatthere would be three Ghanaians in 2000 for every one in 1960. Under series C3
(i.e. rapidly declining fertility), the total population would increase to 19.1million by 2000, a population which would be more than thrice and twice thatof the 1960 and 1970 populations respectively (Table 6.3, and Figure 6.1).Thus, even if Ghana is able to cut down her fertility rate by nearly 50 per centbetween 1985 and 2000, her population would more than double within thenext twenty-six years. It must be remembered that slight changes in the fertilitylevel would not have any significant effect on the size of the future populationand the important issue which would be agitating the minds of Ghanaians whohave given some thought to the rapid population growth in the country is therate at which the fertility would decline once the process had begun. Note thata reduction of nearly 57 per cent by year 2000 (Series D3) would generate apopulation of nearly 18 million by that year and this would be more thantwice the 1972 estimated population of 8.2 million (1972 estimate derived fromTable 6.3). Nevertheless, a decline in fertility beginning in 1985 would reducethe size of the population by between 11 per cent (series B3) and 20 per cent(Series D3).
(1) It must also be noted that only two sets of the projected age and sex distributionof the population of Ghana are presented in Appendix I. (i.e. series A2 and C2).
105
TABLE 6.3. - RECORDED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OFGHANAIAN ORIGIN: 1960-2000 (NUMBERS IN THOUSANDS)
Year
Recorded1960
Projections19651970197519801985199019952000
Source: Appendix
Series A3
5,899
6,7627,7979,083
10,68212,68415,19818,36822,350
VII Tables 27,30,
Series B3
5,899
6,7627,7979,083
10,68212,68414,92517,43120,207
32 and 36 [Gaisie
Series C3
5,899
6,7627,7979,083
10,68212,68414,78216,94119,079
1973]
Series D3
5,899
6,7627,7979,083
10,68212,68414,63816,45117,951
PopulationZ2.3/U
20.510
18.710
16.880
15.050
13.220
11.390
9.560
7.730
S.900
1
-
—
—
1 \ 1
//¿
w
A3
B3 -
_
-
-
—
-
I960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Figure 6.1. - Recorded and projected population of Ghanaian origin: 1960-2000(Numbers in thousands)
106
Two main conclusions emerge from the above analysis:
(1) That there should be no fear at all about Ghana's population remain-ning at less than ten million, let alone declining from its presentabsolute value; and
(2) That the sooner the fertility begins to decline, the sooner will the resultbe seen in terms of slowing the rate of growth (a fact which will bedemonstrated in the following paragraphs).
Population Growth. The estimated rate of natural increase (RNI) of 2.7 percent per annum would rise to about 3.4 per cent between
1980 and 1985; an increase which is largely attributable to decline in crude birth
Rate40.5
38.0 —
36.5 -
31.0 —
30.0
24.5 —
22.0 —
I
—
-
_
**
—
—
—
—
1
1
/
//
/
1
1
>
\ N ^
\
\\
\
\
i
\\\
i
\\'
\\\
\
i
\
\\\\\
\\ -%.\
\
A3
—
-
—
c 3 -
—
-
D3
I960 1965 1970 I97S 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Yeare
Figure 6.2. — Estimated and projected rates of natural increase for Ghana: 1960-2000(Rates per 1000 population)
107
TABLE 6.4. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED CRUDE BIRTH ANDDEATH RATES AND RATES OF NATURAL INCREASE FOR GHANA
1960-2000 (RATES PER 1,000 POPULATION)
Year
Estimate1960CBRCDRRNI
Projections1960-1965
CBRCDRRNI
1965-1970CBRCDRRNI
1970-1975CBRCDRRNI
1975-1980CBRCDRRNI
1980-1985CBRCDRRNI
1985-1990CBRCDRRNI
1990-1995CBRCDRRNI
1995-2000CBRCDRRNI
Sources : Appendix VII
Series A3
50.023.027.0
49.422.127.3
48.520.128.4
47.817.330.3
47.314.932.4
46.912.634.3
46.610.536.1
46.38.5
37.8
46.06.8
39.2
: Tables 27
Series B3
50.023.027.0
49.422.127.3
48.520.128.4
47.817.330.5
47.314.932.4
46.912.634.3
42.710.232.5
39.28.2
31.9
36.06.5
29.5
30, 33 and 37 [Gaisie
Series C3
50.023.027.0
49.422.127.3
48.520.128.4
47.817.330.5
47.314.932.4
46.912.634.3
40.710.130.6
35.28.0
27.7
30.16.4
23.7
1973]
Series D3
50.023.027.0
49.422.127.3
48.520.128.4
47.817.330.5
47.314.932.4
46.912.634.3
38.610.028.6
31.17.8
23.3
23.76.2
17.5
108
rate between 1960 and 1985 is due mainly to the shifts in the age structure anddoes not necessarily imply a fall in the fertility level. In the years followingthe base date of fertility decline (i.e. 1985), the rates of natural increase showstriking differences which reflect the different fertility assumptions under whichthe population was projected (see figure 6.2). In Series A3, where fertility isheld constant, the rate of growth would continue to increase from 3.4 per centper annum in 1985 to about 3.9 per cent in 2000, around one-sixth higher thanthe level attained between 1980 and 1985. On the other hand, a relativelymoderate decline in fertility (Series B3) would bring the rate down to almost3.0 per cent in 2000, dropping back to the 1970-1975 level (Table 6.4). The rateof growth would not reach this level by 2000 if fertility decline were to startearlier or if the rate of decline were to be higher than is assumed under SeriesB3. Series C3 and D3 demonstrate the effects of a more pronounced decline infertility or the rate of growth and it will be seen from Table 6.4 and figure 6.2,that the higher the rate of decline in fertility, the lower would be the resultingRNI as the projection progressed. If the total fertility ratio could be reduced toabout 4.0 by 2000, the RNI would fall to the level prevailing in the late 1950's,and, if fertility declined markedly between 1985 and 2000 as postulated inSeries D3 , the RNI would decrease by the end of the century to below the esti-mated RNI of 2.3 per cent in the 1940's. It must also be noted that the crudebirth rates decline much more rapidly in Series C3 and D3 than in the otherprojections. All of this reinforces the conclusion reached in the preceding sectionthat under all assumptions of fertility decline, population growth rate will bepositive but its rate of change is dependent on the magnitude and time span offertility change.
Age Structure. A knowledge of the shape of the age structure is essential foran understanding of future trends in vital rates and other demo-
graphic variables because it is the major determinant of these parameters.However, the age distribution of a population at a specific point in time is itselfthe produce of the past trends in fertility and mortality. The age structure istherefore of a particular interest to both researchers and development planners.Different sets of population projections provide a means of examining some ofthe major causes of shifts in the age structure as the population grows.
It will be seen from Table 6.5 that the estimated proportion of the popu-lation under 15 years of age in 1960 increased from 44.0 per cent to 48.7 percent in year 2000 under the assumption of constant fertility (Series A3) and acomparison of the latter figure with the corresponding projections in Series B3 ,C3 and D3 indicates the extent to which this segment of the age structure isaffected by the differential declines in fertility. The decrease in the proportionunder 15 years of age between 1985 and 2000 ranges from 4.0 percentage pointsin Series B3 to 11.1 in Series D; the proportion under 15 was reduced from
109
47.3 per cent in 1985 to 43.3, 39.9 and 36.2 in Series B3 , C3 and D3 respec-tively by 2000. On the other hand, whilst the proportion of the population agedbetween 15 and 59 years decreased from 48.1 per cent in 1985 to 46.8 per centin Series A3 by the year 2000, the corresponding proportions in Series B3 are51.8 and 58.3 per cent for Series D3 . A similar pattern is observed in the olderage groups (i.e. 60 years and over) though the changes are not so marked as inthe central age groups (i.e. 15-59 years).
TABLE 6.5. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF THEPOPULATION OF GHANAIAN ORIGIN BY BROAD AGE GROUP: 1960-2000
Age and Series
Under 15 yearsSeries A3
B 3C 3D 3
15-59 yearsSeries A3
B 3C 3D 3
60 years and overSeries A3
B 3C 3D 3
Total
1960
44.044.044.044.0
51.451.451.451.4
4.64.64.64.6
100.0
Source: Appendix VII: Tables 27,
1965
44.944.944.944.9
50.550.550.550.5
4.64.64.64.6
100.0
30,33
1970
45.645.645.645.6
49.849.849.849.8
4.64.64.64.6
100.0
and 36
1975
46.346.346.346.3
49.049.049.049.0
4.74.74.74.7
100.0
1980
46.846.846.846.8
48.648.648.648.6
4.74.74.74.7
100.0
1985
47.347.347.347.3
48.148.148.148.1
4.64.64.64.6
100.0
[Gaisiel973].
1990
47.846.946.345.8
47.648.548.949.4
4.64.74.84.8
100.0
1995
48.335.544.042.3
47.749.751.152.7
4.54.85.05.0
100.0
2000
48.743.339.936.2
46.851.854.958.3
4.44.95.55.5
100.0
The shifts in the age structure as indicated by the projections undervarying fertility assumptions demonstrate the effect of changes in fertility on theage distribution of a population; the extent of transformation of the age struc-ture within a specific period depends largely on the rate of change in fertility.For example, under Series D3 the proportion of the population under 15 yearswould be about 36.0 per cent in year 2000 and the age group 15-60 years wouldincrease by 10.2 percentage points from the 1985 level. But the figures in otherseries show that the proportion under 15 would not fall below 40 per cent in theterminal year and that under unchanging fertility conditions (Series A3) nearlyhalf of the population would be under 15 by the end of the century (Table 6.5).Thus, unless rapid decline in fertility sets in very soon, Ghana's population (i.e.Ghanaian origin population) would become much younger as we progress to-wards the year 2000.
The effect of changes in mortality on the age structure, on the other hand,
110
would be negligible. This is demonstrated in Table 6.5(a) where the age struc-tures generated under the same fertility but different mortality conditions arecompared with each other. Thus, the changes in the age structure would be quiteindependent of the rates of improvements in the expectation of life at birth, andconsequently any attempt to minimize the adverse effects of an age structurewith about 50 per cent of the population under 15 should be directed towardsfertility.
TABLE 6.5 (a). - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED PER CENT DISTRIBUTION OF THEPOPULATION OF GHANAIAN ORGIN BY BROAD AGE GROUPS: 1960-2000
Age and Series
Under 15 yearsSeries Aj
A 3c l
c315-59 yearsSeries Aj
A 3c l
c360 years and over
Series AjA 3C l
c3
1960
44.044.044.044.0
51.451.451.451.4
4.64.64.64.6
Source: Appendix VII Tables 3,9,
1965
44.944.944.944.9
50.550.550.550.5
4.64.64.64.6
1970
45.645.645.645.6
49.849.849.849.8
4.64.64.64.6
1975
46.246.346.246.3
49.149.049.149.0
4.74.74.74.7
1980
46.546.846.546.8
48.848.648.848.6
4.64.74.64.7
27 and 33 [Gaisie 1973].
1985
46.947.346.947.3
48.548.148.548.1
4.64.64.64.6
1990
47.347.845.946.3
48.147.849.548.9
4.54.64.74.7
1995
47.848.343.544.0
47.847.251.751.1
4.54.54.84.9
2000
48.248.739.439.9
47.546.855.554.9
4.44.45.15.2
Historical experience has shown that fertility declines could be broughtabout by socio-economic changes even before family planning programmes beginto have any significant effect on the birth rate. Cases in point are Hong Kong,Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan, Ceylon, Malaysia, Costa Rica and several ofthe West Indies (see Kirk 1969: 79ff). The majority of these countries are said tohave exhibited a common characteristic of a period of " . . . The introduction offamily planning programmes appears in each case to have accelerated a fertilitydecline already under way" (U.N. 1972: 63). It has been observed that the thre-shold zone(l) for fertility decline in Asian countries has been substantiallylower than that in Latin America; the former experienced the onset of fertilitydecline with per capita incomes of about S200 as compared with an average of$300 for Latin America. In Ceylon and South Korea, the onset of fertility
(1) The "Threshold Zone' refers to the level of development at which birth rates haveempirically begun to decline. [U.N. Population Bulletin no. 7,1963].
I l l
decline occurred at per capita income of about $125 (Kirk 1971: 142-3). Ifthere is such a strong link between income and fertility, and experience in othercountries is indicative of what may occur in Africa, then Ghana with a per capitaincome of more than $200 (1) should have entered the threshold for fertility de-cline. It appears therefore that the relationship between income and onset offertility decline is a very weak one and that Ghana has not achieved the socio-economic conditions that have historically engendered fertility declines.However,a sustained investment in education and other spheres of economicdevelopment is most likely to bring about some amount of reduction in fertility,at least at the early phase of the fertility transition. On the other hand, econo-mic stagnation and political instability may delay the onset of fertility declineand it is not unlikely that the fertility level will be raised by general improve-ments in health and hygienic standards. It is therefore difficult to forecast the'take-off point for fertility decline in Ghana. Nevertheless, the possibility thatchanges in social and economic institutions may trigger off a decline in ferti-lity before the full impact of the family planning programme is felt and is incor-porated in a new set of population projections which are compared with thosepresented above (Table 6.5 (b)).
TABLE 6.5 (b). - PROJECTED POPULATION OF GHANAIAN ORIGIN,SELECTEDYEARS 1975 TO 2000 (NUMBERS IN THOUSANDS)
Year
1975198019852000
1975-20001975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-2000
Year and Age
2000Under 15 years15-59 years60 years and over
Series B3
9,08310,68212,68420,207
Series B3 2
9,08310,56812,29919,369
Series C3
9,08310,682
Series C32
9,08310,510
.12,684 12,10719,079 17,903
Series. E3
9,08310,62312,41418,926
Series F 3
9,08310,62312,41417,532
Rate of Natural Increase (Per Cent)
3.053.243.433.253.102.95
43.351.8
4.9
3.053.023.033.043.042.98
3.05 3.053.24 2.913.43 2.823.06 2.742.72 2.632.37 2.44
Population in Broad Age Groups (
42.752.1
5.2
39.9 39.154.9 55.45.2 5.5
3.053.133.112.962.822.64
Per Cent)
40.853.9
5.3
3.053.133.112.772.431.69
36.158.2
5.7
(1) Ghana's per capita income was $245 in 1968 [see World Population data sheet1968: 17].
112
The first two of the new set of projections (i.e. B32 and C32) were calcu-lated under the same fertility and mortality assumptions as in Series B3 and C3
except that the decline in fertility would begin in 1975 instead of in 1985. Inthe other two projections (i.e. E3 and F3), the total fertility of 6.9 was assumedto decline slightly to 6.7 between 1975 and 1980 and then to 6.4 between 1980and 1985. For the remainder of the century, the fertility ratio would decline li-nearly by 28 per cent in series E3 and 42 per cent in series F3 . It will be seenfrom Table 6.5 (b) that the onset of fertility decline in 1975 would yield a po-pulation of about 19.4 million in series B32 and 17.9 in series C32, implying thatif fertility were to decline according to the assumptions stipulated above, thepopulation of Ghanaian origin in the year 2000 would be smaller by 800,000 inseries B32 and by 1.2 million in series C32 than is anticipated under series B3
and C3 respectively. Under series E3 and F 3 , the total population would increaseto 18.9 million and 17.5 million respectively. A comparison between these fi-gures and those computed under the assumption that a decline in fertility wouldstart in 1985 (i.e. B3 and C3), shows a significant achievement in the reductionof the size of the population in terms of absolute numbers, especially when se-ries A3 figures for 2000 are compared with that of series E3 or F 3 . However, thefigures presented in Table 6.5 (b) indicate that whatever fertility assumption pro-ves to be realistic in the future the population would nearly double (Series F3)or more than double (Series B3) between 1975 and 2000 and that unless thereis a steep decline in fertility in the years following 1985 as assumed under Se-ries F 3 and C3, the doubling time would be reduced to between 20 and 23 years(A3-Table 6.5,B3-Table 6.5(b).
The second important point to note is that the future rate of growth willdepend to a larger extent on the magnitude of the rate of decline in fertilitythan on the onset of fertility decline. For example, it is only under series F3
(i.e. total fertility ratio of 6.9 falling to 6.4 in 1985 and then declining by 42 percent by 2000) that the rate of growth would decrease to less than 2 per centper annum in the year 2000 (i.e. 1.7 per cent). It will also be seen fromTable 6.5 (b) that a marked transformation of the age structure can only bebrought about by a fairly steep decline in fertility and this is demonstrated bythe fact that it is only under series F3 that the proportion under 15 years ofage could be reduced to about 36 per cent in the year 2000. But it is very doubt-ful if fertility reduction of the magnitude as stipulated under series F3 will beachieved by the turn of this century.
The inevitable conclusion of the above analysis suggests that Ghana'spopulation as it exists today has a high growth potential inherent in the age struc-ture and hence the rapid expansion of the population will continue for the re-mainder of the century unless a marked decline in fertility sets in within thenext few years. It is important to bear in mind that the immediate benefits ofdeclines in fertility are relatively small and it takes a fairly long time beforethe rapid growth of the population slows down. Though Japan's fertility reached
113
replacement level in 1955, it has been estimated that the population will conti-nue to grow by about one million persons per year and that it will not stop gro-wing until about the year 2015 (Avery and Freeman 1970: 1-4). It has also beenestimated that an immediate fertility decline to replacement level in developingcountries would be accompanied by an ultimate population increase of twothirds before growth would cease (Keyfitz 1971: 83-9). Thus, if Ghana's fertilitywere to drop to the ultimate replacement level in 1990, her population wouldcontinue to grow until 2050. However, the examination of the population situa-tion in the next century is beyond the scope of this monograph and a discussionof some aspects of the social and economic implications of the rapid populationgrowth as indicated by the population projections will be confined to the pre-sent century.
Impact of Changes in Population Growth: The social and economic gains fromMeasurable Gains managing population growth rate
through reductions in fertility canbe measured in terms of their effect on certain key variables that affect total de-velopment and growth.
In this section, specific attention will be given to the effect of fertilitychanges on selected socio-economic factors. Most readily quantifiable effects arethose on the demand for social services such as education and increased demandfor employment as labour force changes take place. Equally important is theeffect on economic indicators such as per capita national income, agriculturalself-sufficiency. The extent of treatment of latter effects is minimal in this mo-nograph (1).
(1) Treatment of changes in per capita income with changes in fertility are subjectto so many speculative assumptions, given the paucity and meaningfulness of national in-come statistics, that they will be foregone in this discussion. This decision does not mainlyrest on the lack of data that Steuer (1973) bemoaned, but more so the usefulness of com-parative changes in per capita income as an indicator of "well-being". Does the conclusionput by Usher, D. (1968) apply to Ghana when he wrote:
"Using Thailand as an example, this book shows that statistics like these may containerrors of several hundred per cent.. . the discrepancy is not due primarily to errorsin data.. . the fault lies with the rules (of national income comparisons) them-selves . . . which generate numbers that fail to carry the implications expected ofthem.
In Thailand I saw a people not prosperous by European standards but obviouslyenjoying a standard of living well above the bare requirements of subsistence. Manyvillage communities seem to have attained a standard of material comfort at leastas high as that of slum dwellers in England or America. But at my desk I computedstatistics of real national income showing people of under-developed countries in-cluding Thailand to be desperately, if not impossibly, poor. The contrast between
(See the rest of this note on following page).
114
A — Change in Fertility and the Demand for Education
Fertility Change and Preschool Age Population
The age group 0-5 years has been defined as the pre-school age population(see UNESCO 1967: 55). Though this definition may not be quite applicable toan African society where universal primary school education is non-existent andone cannot therefore regard the 0-5 age group as pre-school population, we have,however, adopted it as a matter of convenience for the purpose of the followingdiscussion.
The pre-school age population, as defined above, is expected to increasefrom about 1.3 million in 1960 to about 5.2 million, 3.8 million ,3.1 million and2.4 million under series A3, B3 , C3 and D3 respectively by the year 2000;whichever of the fertility assumptions happens to come closer to the "truth".Even under very rapidly declining fertility conditions (Series D3), the size ofthis age group in 2000 could not be reduced to anything smaller than the corres-ponding 1980 population unless fertility decline starts earlier than it is anticipa-ted in the projections (Table 6.6). The other extreme condition (Series A3) indi-cates that there would be four times as many pre-school children in 2000 thanthere were in 1960 and that this age group would be doubling its size in less than20 years (Table 6.6). Since it is.unlikely that fertility could be reduced to morethan one-half of its present value within the next twenty years, the size of thepre-school age population would most likely be in the neighbourhood of 2.0 mil-
TABLE 6.6. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF PRE-SCHOOLAGE POPULATION (i.e. UNDER 6 YEARS) FOR GHANA: 1960-2000
(NUMBERS IN THOUSANDS)
Yeai
196019651970197519801985199019952000
Series A3
1,2521,4821,7212,0192,4002,8813,4904,2575,221
Series B3
1,2521,4821,7212,0192,4002,8813,2083,5083,828
Series C3
1,2521,4821,7212,0192,4002,8813,0603,1153,094
Series D3
1,2521,4821,7212,0192,4002,8812,9113,0242,360
what I saw and what I measured was so great that I came to believe that theremust be some large and fundamental bias in the way income statistics are compi-led. For instance, if the figure of $40 for Ethiopia means what it appears to mean,namely that Ethiopians are consuming per year an amount of goods and servicesno larger than could be bought in the U.S. for $40,then most Ethiopians are sopoor that they could not possibly survive let alone increase in numbers" (As quotedby Bauer, P.T. 1974).
115
lion in 1975 and would probably increase to between 3.1 million (Series C3) and3.5 million (Series A3) by 1990, indicating once more a doubling of this popu-lation in less than twenty years. The impact of this rapid growing population onthe limited health, social and educational resources of the country cannot beoveremphasized: More important perhaps is the adverse effect it would haveon the number of adult females who, all things being equal, would be competingwith their male counterparts in the employment market if they were not fullyoccupied with child-caring and related domestic activities(l). Nurseries and kin-dergartens may help to ease the situation to a considerable extent, but it must beremembered that these services will have to be paid for and the type of infantand child institution which would cater for a wide spectrum of families and notonly those of the elite still has to be worked out. In the new proposed system ofeducation for Ghana, an 18-24 months programme of kindergarten school hasbeen recommended for all children aged between four and six years (see LegonObserver, Vol. VII, No. 12, 1972: Supplement). The capability of Ghana toundertake such a comprehensive programme within the limits of availableresources may be inferred from the Legon Observer's editorial comment on theproposal:
"This is quite a sound principle in theory, because it is obvious that thekindergarten programme is advantageous, but has in the past been availableonly to children of well-to-do parents in the urban areas; . . . But in ourpresent circumstances, what is desirable may not be easily attainable. Arewe sure that we have the machinery, the funds and the trained personnelto undertake this delicate assignment? (The Legon Observer 1972, Vol.VII, No. 12:273)."
It is equally doubtful whether the available resources could support countrywidenurseries to take care of the 0-5 year olds.
Fertility Change and the Primary School Age
Population (i.e. 6-12years)
The age limits employed here are deliberately chosen in order to enable usto relate our discussion to the proposed new system of education for Ghana (seeThe Legon Observer 1972: Supplement). According to the proposed system,formal education will start at the age of 6 years and, at the end of the 7th year(i.e. Primary 7), a child will be eligible to take the common entrance examina-tion for entry into secondary school. Thus, assuming that a majority of thechildren would start the second cycle education from Primary 7, the primaryschool age population will be composed mostly of 6-12 year olds.
(1) There is a growing body of literature that attempts to demonstrate an inverserelationship between fertility and women's employment activities (see Mason, K., et. al.,1971 and for Ghana see Semenya, K.A., 1974).
116
In 1960 there were about 1.1 million children in the primary school agegroups and the estimated number in 1970 was nearly 1.5 million, an increase of18 per cent within a decade. According to the projected population of primaryschool age children, the size of this age group would nearly double by 1980 and,in the second half of the 1980's and early 1990's, there would be almost 3children for each child in the primary school age group during the 1960's (Table6.7). Under series A3 and B3 , the age group would increase to between 3.5 and4.6 millions during the last five years of this century (Table 6.7). Even underthe conditions of rapidly declining fertility (i.e. series C3 and D3), the size ofthis population would not be anything less than from 3.1 to 3.5 millions duringthe 1990's, and, like the pre-school age population, it would be doubling itselfin less than twenty years (Table 6.7).
In 1960, 3,514 public primary schools were functioning in Ghana, whilstthe middle schools numbered 1,234. The combined enrolment of both primaryand middle public schools accounted for 96 per cent of the total public schoolenrolment, with 72 per cent in primary and 24 per cent in middle schools(l).Primary school enrolment increased by 30 per cent in 1961 as a result of thenewly enacted free and compulsory primary education(2). The growth wenton for five years until in 1965/66, over 1,137,000 pupils were in the primarygrades after which it had gradually declined (see Figure 6:3)(3). The primaryschool enrolment rates for males and females declined from 97.3 per cent and74.7 per cent to 82.3 and 66.0 per cent respectively in the two years following1965 (Abbey 1970: Appendix I) and in 1965 the enrolment rate for both sexeswas about 74.0 per cent (Jones 1972: 297). If the enrolment rate were to remainat 70.0 per cent from 1970 to 2000 (Jones 1972: 299), the number of childrenwho would not be able to attend primary school would increase from about530,000 in 1975 to 917,000 in 1990 and by 2000 the number would haveclimbed to 1.4 million in series A3, 1.2 million in series B3,1.1 million in series
(1) The I960 Population Census Advanced Report Vol. II, Table 14, reported atotal of 740,101 students in schools with 610,260 being in public schools. Since no reliableestimates of private schools were available, the difference in the two figures may be inferredto reflect the magnitude of enrolment in private schools. In general, it can be safely assumedthat the private schools in Ghana constitute but a small fraction of the total educationalinstitutions.
(2) As a result of the Educational Act of I960, the free and compulsory educationlaw was reflected in the tremendous increase in primary class one. In 1960/61 there wereabout 107,000 students in primary class one which increased by more than 100 per cent(to 232,000) in 1961/62. The increase continued until 1965/66 when there was a drop inall regions as a result of the cut in the educational grant.
(3) The same growth pattern is observed for both sexes. However, the interestingpoint of figure 6:3 is that the girls as a per cent of boys enrolment (in brackets) went upfrom 60 per cent in 1960 to 80 per cent in 1966/67 and held on to that level for the remai-ning years of that decade.
¡17
C3 and 936,000 in series D 3 . It must be noted that unless enrolment rates areraised well over 70.0 per cent, Ghana would not be able to provide primary edu-cation for nearly one million of the primary school age population, even if herfertility level were more than halved by the year 2000 (Series D3).
TABLE 6.7. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF PRIMARYSCHOOL AGE CHILDREN (6-12 YEARS) IN GHANA: 1960-2000
(NUMBERS IN THOUSANDS)
Year
196019651970197519801985199019952000
Series A3
1,0811,2491,4841,7652,0942,5193,0553,7354,591
Series B3
1,0811,2491,4841,7652,0942,5193,0553,5393,907
Series C3
1,0811,2491,4841,7652,0942,5193,0553,4363,547
Series D3
1,0811,2491,4841,7652,0942,5193,0553,3373,187
N° of pupile in '000
1 L\J\J
1100
000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
1 1—
-
_i i
i i i
y-
^ ^
1 1 1
1 1
— - ^ . ^ ^
TOTAL _
-
-
- ~ , ^ _ BOYS —
^^-" - ~—_^.^
'
GIRLS -
-
-
1 1 160-61 61-62 62-63 63"64 61-65 65-66 66-67 67-68 68-69 69-70 70-71
Figure 6.3. - Public primary school enrolment by sex, Ghana - 1960/61 - 1970/71Source : Ministry of Education, Accra
* The girls total enrolment as a percentage of boys.
In estimating the social costs of education, one needs to assess the changesin enrolment by grade (i.e. estimate the drop-out), the teacher-student ratio ateach educational level and the total governmental costs per student per year.Since the educational system is composed of an inter-dependent linkage of the
118
various levels(l), the swelling of the entrants into the primary school classes willhave significant repercussions throughout the whole system. By this is meantthat if the entrants into the primary schools are increasing at a faster rate thanthe output of teacher training institutes (properly adjusted for replacementlevels due to resignation or retirement), then the student-teacher ratio is affectedwith the subsequent probable negative effect on the "quality of education".Expansion in primary enrolments not only requires more teachers but moresecondary school places and subsequent entrants into the teaching profession(of course, with proper time lags). The demand for physical facilities increasesand so do the operating supplies. All of which have significant budgetary reper-cussions. Let us briefly outline such repercussions.
In 1970/71, Ghana had 7,008 primary institutions, 3,546 middle schools,125 secondary schools, 71 teacher training schools and 6 higher education insti-tutions. The number of pupils per teacher was 28.9 for primary, 31.3 for middleschools, 18.2 for secondary, 15.1 for teacher training and 6.0 for higher educa-tion. Based on the government's estimates of recurrent costs only, the nationspent Ç25.4 per student at the primary level, Ç28.1 at middle school level,Ç263.6 at secondary school level, (£515.8 at teacher training level and $3796.6at the higher education level (2). The total educational system catered for 69.8per cent of the school age population at the primary school level, 62.7 per centat the middle school level, 4.7 per cent at the secondary school level (6.0 percent for secondary 1-5 and only 1.1 per cent for secondary 6-7, hence making4.7 per cent for secondary 1.7), 2.4 per cent at the teacher training level and 0.8per cent at the university level.
In terms of educational facilities and services essential for the maintenanceof the educational system at the enrolment rate of 70.0 per cent with a pupil/teacher ratio of 28.0(3) (Jones 1972: 299), Ghana would need about 114,775primary school teachers by the year 2000 (Series A3), 97,675 under Series B3 ,88,675 under Series C3 and 79,675 under SeriesD3, In order to maintain theratio of pupils per institution as it existed in 1966/67 (i.e. 141 per school),
(1) The educational system is viewed as an organic whole whose main input is schoolage population and whose output is graduates. To sustain a flow of "needed" graduates tothe economy, --be they at secondary, professional or university levels -- a variety of acti-vities and programmes must be undertaken within the system with various leadtimes relativeto time (+), a time of "senior" level graduation which is steadily advancing. Each educatio-nal section within the whole requires, in turn, its own specialized inputs, as well as the com-plementary inputs of specialized sections such as educational materials, administrative andsupervisory services. (For further discussions of such aspects of the total educational systemand how to plan for it, see among others, David, A.S., 1966, and UNESCO, 1964 especiallyChapters IV, VIII and IX).
(2) The sources of the expenditures were obtained from the Planning Unit withinthe Ministry of Education, Government of Ghana.
(3) The 1966/67 rate was 28.8 -- Computed from 1966/67 Education Statistics,Vol. I , Ministry of Education. The 1970/71 figure noted above, however, was 28.9.
119
the number of primary schools which would be needed would be between23,000 (Series A) and 16,000 (Series D) by 2000.
The number of schools needed would be reduced if the double shiftsystem were used, but the effectiveness of this system needs further inves-tigation because it "was terminated in some schools" during the 1960-1965period (Abbey 1970: 2).
Secondly, the notion that the rapidly increasing number of pupils wouldbe 'swamped' by a sharp rise in the enrolment rates has been debunked by thefindings of a study undertaken by Jones. He observed that, even in a realisticsituation in which the enrolment rate reaches 95 per cent within a period of30 years, " . . . only a quarter of the increase in enrolment could be attributedsolely to the rise in enrolment rates, and this would be exceeded by the risecaused by demographic trends alone (31 per cent of the total increase) and bydemographic trends and enrolment rate trends combined (42 per cent)" (seeJones 1972: 296).
To meet the expanding demand for primary education, in the light of thegovernment's 1961 Educational Act and the demographic plus economic reali-ties, the government's development and current expenditures will have toincrease substantially (1). Applying the per student development and recurrentcosts to the primary school age enrolled population, which is assumed to beonly 70 per cent of the total school age population, one would note that, at1970 cost basis, the recurrent total costs could go up from about 40 millioncedis in 1970 to 86 to 123 million by the year 2000, depending on whichprojection series are used - see Table 6.8. Applying the same assumption fordevelopment expenditures(l), the 3.5 million cedis estimated for 1970/71 ofTable 6.8 could well reach the 7.6 to 11.0 million cedis by the year 2000, de-pending again on which projection series are used.
Comparing the cost estimates of Table 6.8 and 6.9 under varying assump-tions of fertility rates reveals the following:
1) No significant difference will be.observed before the year 1995 whenthe beginning of the decline in fertility in 1985 will be felt.
2) By the year 2000, the number of primary school students would be1.4 million less under series D3 as compared with series A3 projections.
(1) The development and current expenditure figures are based on 1970/71 estimateswhich were computed for a ten year period that covered both primary and middle schoolsyears. Because of the change in the system and to keep the analysis consistent with thepreceding projections, the expected expenditures have been assumed to be 70 per cent ofthe total primary and middle school "old system" accounting.
(2) These estimates are presented as only ball pack estimates since they do notreflect the needed adjustments due to inflation, age of current structures, etc. They shouldbe treated only as indicators of differences in educational outlays associated with changes infertility levels.
120
TABLE 6.8. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED RECURRENT COST OFPRIMARY EDUCATION, UNDER VARYING ASSUMPTIONS OF FERTILITY
CHANGE, GHANA: 1970-2000
Year
1970197519801985199019952000
Recurrent Expenditures (thousand cedis)
Series A3
39,92047,47956,32957,76182,180
100,762123,496
Series B3
39,92047,47956,32967,76182,18095,199
105,098
Series C3
39,92047,47956,32967,66182,18092,42895,143
Series D3
39,92047,67956,32967,76182,18089,76585,730
Source: Table 6.7 and cost estimates of Ministry of Education.
TABLE 6.9. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURESFOR PRIMARY EDUCATION UNDER VARIOUS ASSUMPTIONS OF FERTILITY
CHANGE, GHANA: 1970-2000
Year
1970197519801985199019952000
Development Expenditures (thousand cedis)
Series A 3
3,5624,2365,0266,0467,3328,964
11,018
Series B 3
3,5624,2365,0266,0467,3328,5969,377
Series C3
3,5624,2365,0266,0467,3328,3468,513
Series D 3
3,5624,2365,0286,0467,3328,0097,649
Source: Table 6.7 and expenditure estimates from Ministry of Education
This difference may mean a reduction in anticipated recurrent expen-ditures of 37.8 million cedis and a 3.4 million cedis reduction in deve-lopment expenditures (a total "gain"(l) of over 40 million cedis due tothe decline in fertility).
(1) The use of the word "gain" may be confusing a bit. What is intended to denotehere is the "saving" due to the difference in the projected expenditure levels under thevarious assumed changes in fertility levels. The actual "gain" to society is the return frominvesting such differences in other "positive return" generating investments. If such savingsare not diverted to "other" investment outlays, they may be profitably used to improve the"quality" of primary education. Such moves are probable as one notes the "steady repla-cement of under-qualified teachers with Certificate A teachers in primary and middleschools", and the increase in the number of graduate teachers in the secondary and technical
(see the rest of this note on following page)
121
TABLE. 6.10. - RETENTION OF PUPILS BY GRADE AT THE PUBLIC PRIMARYSCHOOL.GHANA, 1960/61,1970/71
Year
1960/61
1961/62
1962/63
1963/64
1964/65
1965/66
1966/67
1967/68
1968/69
1969/70
1970/71
ClassOne
107,928
231,775
236,748
270,436
284,687
212fill
221,559
214,115
199,263
203,592
207,885
ClassTwo
80,871
106,608(98.8)
192,836(83.2)
206,227(80.3)
225,531(83.4)
224,172(78.7)
202,096(74.3)
176,768(79.8)
167,526(78.2)
161,660(81.1)
165,262(81.2)
Primary
ClassThree
72,918
89,396(110.5)
103,221(96.8)
182,213(94.3)
196,189(95.1)
203,882(90.4)
195,564(87.2)
182,530(90.3)
162,525(91,9)
154,539(92.2)
149,570(92.5)
class enrolment(l)
ClassFour
65,886
79,486(109.0)
87,694(98.1)
103,307(100.0)
170,889(93.8)
182,579(93.1)
183,495(90.0)
178,428(91.2)
167,831(91.9)
151,839(93.4)
142,216(92.0)
ClassFive
59,443
70,460(106.9)
77,323(97.3)
87,614(99.9)
101,466(98.2)
156,931(91.8)
165,962(90.9)
164,475(89.6)
162,178(90.9)
153,448(91.4)
139,571(91.9)
ClassSix
55,071
64,037(107.7)
70,266(99.7)
78,841(101.9)
87,754(100.2)
98,394(97.0)
148,167(94.4)
156,207(94.1)
156,134(94.9)
150,551(92.8)
142,998(93.2)
Percentageto transferfrom Class
One toClass Six
(91.2)
(63.9)
(60.8)
(57.7)
(52.9)
(52.6)
(1) Total students including both boys and girls. The number in brackets reflectthe percentage continuation rate of the same class a year later.
Source: Computed from Ministry of Education Statistics sources.
institutions. For example, during the four years 1966/67 to 1970/71, secondary enrolmentshave grown by 25 per cent (10,000), teacher training by 19 per cent (3,000) and universityenrolments by 6 per cent (300), but primary education has fallen by 1 per cent (10,000).During the same period there has also been an increase in the recurrent cost of educationfrom about $67 m to (£10 m. This increase has been partly caused by the increase of 15 to20 per cent in teachers' salaries recommended by the "Mills-Odoi" Commission. Govern-ment expenditure on education has been growing steadily. A cut in primary one intake,however, will not have an immediate effect on the increase in cost just as a cut in the ferti-lity rate will take quite a time to effect changes on society.
122
3) The decline in the rate of growth of number of primary school entrantswill not be only reflected in the budgetary differences, but throughoutthe educational system as it affects the number of needed primaryschool teachers. Such differences will also not be felt before 1995, by theyear 2000, the difference between the number of teachers needed tomeet the series A3 versus series D3 levels of enrolment could well reachthe 50,000 mark.
4) Another important, yet often neglected economic consequence of suchchanges is the effect that reduced numbers have on the "economic was-tage of foregone investment in education due to drop-out rates betweengrades". As Table 6.10 indicates, during the 1960/61 to 1970/71period, the retention rate of the same cohort of students going throughthe primary class one through sixth dropped from 91.2 per cent in1965/66 to 52.6 per cent in 1970/71. Assuming that one were to ac-cept UNESCO's definition of functional literacy to mean at least fiveyears of schooling, then any person who begins the schooling cycle atclass one but drops out before completing class five, leads to a totalsocietal loss equivalent to the total cost spent on the drop-outs from thesystem.
5) Thus, in view of the substantial increases in government expenditurewhich would be needed to keep the same proportion of children ofprimary school age population in the schools, it is very unlikely thatGhana will achieve universal primary education before the end of thecentury. A sharp decline in fertility in the immediate future is ab-solutely necessary to keep the problem within tolerable limits in thecoming decades and it must be borne in mind that a half developedprimary school education would accentuate both class and ethnicdifferences.
Fertility Change and the Secondary School Age Population (13-19 years)
This age group encompasses those children aged 13 to 19 years who wouldbe knocking at the doors of the secondary schools or would be pursuing theproposed two-year continuation programme. One might like to examine the twomajor segments of this population separately (i.e. those who would enter secon-dary school and those who would follow the two-year continuation programmeafter Primary 7) but there is a large amount of uncertainty as regards the propor-tion of this population who would be able to obtain admission into secondaryschools after the six-year primary schooling, the proportion who would strugglethrough the continuation programme into the realm of second cycle educationand the proportion who would fail to acquire this education. For the purposeof this brief discussion, we intend to concentrate on the broader dimensions ofthe demographic impact on the size of the population which would be deman-ding post-primary schooling, including second cycle education, in the future.
123
It is obvious from the findings presented above that great pressure is beingexerted on the secondary schools and the commercial and technical institutionsby the rapidly growing primary school age population. At the same time,in noyear has the enrolment rate for secondary schools excluding commercial/technical institutions, reached 10 per cent of the relevant age group for bothmales and females combined and during the 1969/70 academic year, an estima-ted number of 200,000 potential candidates were competing for about 11,000secondary school places (Abbey 1970:3).
It appears that the future is going to be even more gloomy. The secondaryschool age population as defined here has been growing at a rate of 3.5 per centper year since 1970 and this rate would decline to 4.0 per cent per year in the1990's (Series A3) and, during these years, even the very rapidly declining fer-tility model (Series D3) would still be accompanied by an annual rate of growthof not less than 3.5 per cent. It can be seen from Table 6.11 that the impact ofthe fertility decline would not be felt for fifteen or more years following itsinception and that there would not be any significant differences between thesize of the projected secondary school age populations in the four series by theyear 2000. The population of the age group under discussion is estimated toincrease from 1.13 million in 1970 to about between 3.27 million (Series D3)and 3.41 million (Series A3) in 2000, an increase of between 289 per centand 327 per cent. Improvements in enrolment rates at the secondary level ofeducation will depend largely on the proportion of this population which thegovernment can afford to sponsor and the proportion of private individuals whocan shoulder the responsibility without external help.
TABLE 6.11. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED POPULATION OF SECONDARYSCHOOL AGE CHILDREN (13-19 YEARS) GHANA: 1960-2000
(NUMBERS IN THOUSANDS)
Year
196019651970197519801985199019952000
Series A3
859978
1,1311,3321,6041,9042,2932,7833,407
Series B3
859978
1,1311,3321,6041,9042,2932,7833,341
Series C3
859978
1,1311,3321,6041,9042,2932,7833,307
Series D3
859978
1,1311,3321,6041,9042,2932,7833,272
In 1970/71, the Government of Ghana's estimated capital on developmentexpenditures on secondary education amounted to Ç2.9 million while the recur-rent expenditures approached the Ç13.9 million mark. Using these estimates andthe total number of enrolment of 52,852 students, one arrives at a per student
124
cost of 54.8 cedis for development outlays and 263 cedis for recurrent costs(l).Assuming no further increases in such outlays, and no greater proportion of thetotal school age population that will be admitted to secondary education (10 %only), the recurrent plus development costs may rise from Ç36.1 million in 1970to $108.8 million in year 2000 under Series A3 fertility assumption. However, iffertility rates of Series D3 are attained, the increase will be from Ç36.1 millionin 1970 to Ç104.4 million or a difference of over Ç4.4. million — see Tables 6.12and 6.13.
TABLE 6.12. - ESTIMATES AND PROJECTED RECURRENT COSTS OF SECONDARYEDUCATION UNDER VARYING ASSUMPTIONS OF FERTILITY CHANGE,
GHANA 1970-2000
Year
197019751980198519902000
Recurrent Total Costs (thousand cedis)
Series A3
29,81335,11142,28158,18960,44389,808
Series B3
29,81335,11142,28158,18960,44388,069
Series C3
29,81335,11142,28158,18960,44387,173
Series D3
29,81335,11142,28158,18960,44386,250
Source: The enrolment estimates are based on 10 % of Table 6.11 while cost esti-mates are derived from Ministry of Education 1970-71 budget and enrolment figures.
TABLE 6.13. - ESTIMATED AND PROJECTED DEVELOPMENT EXPENDITURESFOR SECONDARY EDUCATION UNDER VARYING ASSUMPTIONS OF
FERTILITY DECLINE, GHANA 1970-2000
Year
1970197519801985199019952000
Development Expenditures (thousand cedis)
Series A3
6,3007,4198,934
10,60512,77215,50118,977
Series B 3
6,3007,4198,934
10,60512,77215,50118,609
Series C3
6,3007,4198,934
10,60512,77215,50118,420
Series D3
6,3007,4198,934
10,60512,77215,50118,225
Source: The enrolment estimates are based on 10 % of Table 6.11 while cost esti-mates are derived from 1970/71 Ministry of Education estimates and enrolment figures.
(1) The actual outlays are very difficult to estimate. For example, the ManpowerDivision of the Ministry of Planning (unpublished Statistics) reported a total enrolment of62,500 students in 1972/73 and a total per student cost of 213.72 cedis (Ç140.90 recurringcost plus 36.27 cedis of indirect recurring costs while development cost per student wasestimated at 34.77 cedis and 1.78 cedis for the direct and indirect components respectively).
125
The economic conclusions that may be drawn from the above analysis aresimilar to those drawn when considering the primary education outlays of thepreceding section. It is of further interest to note here that Jones has estima-ted (1) that Ghana would be required to allocate between 9 per cent (on thebasis of rising enrolment rates and declining fertility) and 11 per cent (on thebasis of enrolment rates and constant high fertility) of her gross national productto primary and secondary education (Jones 1972: 300) and,considering the factthat no country in the world spends between 11 and 13 per cent of her GNP oneducation (including higher education), he doubted very much if Ghana couldafford to meet the demand for primary and secondary education by her rapidlygrowing young population (Jones 1972: 300). That there is a great need formassive educational investments at the secondary school level cannot be overemphasized, and, in the light of Ghana's present economic conditions, a largeproportion of children in the 13-19 age group will undoubtedly have to misssecondary education.
B — Change in Fertility and the Demand for The demand for employment de-Employment pends on the changes in the demo-
graphic structure of the growingpopulation and the spatial displacement of such a population. It has often beenargued, and at times promised in the national plans, that one of the social andmoral obligations of a responsible government is to provide productive employ-ment for both male and female adults in the working age population (2), andfailure to do this creates all sorts of social and economic problems in the society.In 1960 about 6 per cent of the economically active population aged 15 yearsand over were reported as unemployed, the unemployment problem being moreacute in the urban areas than in the countryside (3). There are strong indicationsthat the proportion of unemployed among the economically active populationhas been rising since 1960. The estimated number of unemployed persons in1968 ranged between 520,000 and 640,000, between about 16 and 19 per centof the estimated economically active population of nearly 3.4 million in thatyear (Abbey 1970: 3). It should, however, be noted that the 1970 census disclo-sed a labour force of 3.3 million and with 648,829 persons reported as unem-ployed (excluding students, disabled and aged). Both the 1960 and 1970 Cen-suses showed that the unemployed rate for Ghana was 6.0 per cent per annum.
(1) Estimates based on two series of projections, developed by Gaisie (1969), inwhich the decline in fertility was assumed to begin in 1975.
(2) The working age population is defined as the population aged between 15 and 64years.
(3) There seems to be, in fact, an inverse relationship between the size of a town orlocality and the incidence of reported unemployment (see Gaisie 1973: Chapter III).
126
It will be seen from Table 6.14 that the male labour force would doubleits size by 1985; increasing at a rate of 2.5 per annum from 1.9 million in 1975to 2.5 million in 1985. It is important to note that the female labour forcewould nearly catch up with that of the males by 1985 ; growing at a faster rate of3.8 per cent. Ghana's labour force would stand at nearly 5 million by 1985. Anda constant annual rate of 6.0 per cent would yield an unemployed population ofabout 1.3 million by 1985. The job requirements of the fast growing labourforce are putting more and more pressure on the employment market and thereare instances in which the increasing number of armed robberies has been attri-buted to the demoralizing effects of unemployment in Ghana. The rapid increaseof the population of working age persons is therefore of great importance todevelopment planners as well as politicians.
The estimated working age population of about 3.4 million in 1960is expected to reach nearly 4.8 million by 1975 and the 1960 figure would beslightly more than doubled by 1985. Even after 1985, the differences betweenthe four series would be small indeed because the cohorts who would enter thelabour market within the subsequent fifteen or more years would have alreadybeen born and the effect of fertility decline on the working age populationwould be virtually negligible unless a decline in fertility were to commenceearlier than is assumed in the projections. In all the four series, the labour forcewould multiply by three and two-thirds between 1960 and 2000 (i.e. 3.1 millionto 11.0 million); an increase of about 282 per cent within the forty year period(see Gaisie 1973 : Appendix VIII Tables 27,30 and 36); massive increases in thelabour force would mean in effect that an annual increase of about three percent or more in the number of jobs would be required if under-employmentand unemployment were to be avoided. In addition, the rapidly growing labourforce would call for extra capital to provide equipment and training for theadditional workers in order to maintain the level of output per worker of theexisting labour force whose productive capacity even now needs considerableimprovement (see Gaisie 1971: 29). It must also be borne in mind that theeducation and training of the much needed high-level and middle-level personnelwould entail a huge expenditure of public funds over a considerable length oftime(l).
If any of the assumptions of declining fertility proved to be realistic, thelabour force would grow less rapidly sometime during the early years of the nextcentury, and once again, the rate of growth would be dependent on the extentto which fertility declined during the remainder of this century. If fertility didnot decline appreciably in the foreseeable future, the unemployment problemwould be carried over into the next century. A decline in fertility would also
(1) The Manpower Division (1974) estimated that the per student cost for technicaltraining institutions, including vocational training amounted to about 500 cedis per studentduring the 1972/73 year, whereas higher education cost per student was about 4,000 cedis.
127
bring in its trail an increasing number of women who would be seeking jobsoutside the home, a phenomenon which would be associated with the liberationof the African woman from the drudgery of caring for and nursing childrenand also from injustices of the male-dominated society.
TABLE 6.14. - PROJECTED LABOUR FORCE BY AGE AND SEX: GHANA,1970-1985*
Age
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-39404445-4950-5455-5960-6465+
Total
15-1920-2425-2930-3435-3940-44454950-5455-5960-6465+
Total
* Source:Appendix VI]
1970
164,191268,139262,132224,910191,559160,861132,910107,01683,43660,50574,074
1,729,733
153,791201,856181,399169,296149,002132,999111,48094,05272,89553,83057,734
1,378,334
Based on ProjectedTables 27, 30 and
[see de Graft-Johnson et al .].
1975
Males
157,840292,024296,749257,211216,848182,033151,249122,39695,78570,74789,758
1,932,640
Females
152,001251,861229,589211,190183,459160,766134,783111,89685,62164,13671,349
1,656,651
1980
160,564306,425342,538294,025249,169206,755172,035139,933110,292
82,267109,095
2,173,098
159,710315,555298,865265,879228,488194,004161,623133,203100,37176,91888,811
2,023,427
Population of Ghanaian Origin36) and projected labour force
1985
159,673351,283399,615343,069286,464238,825196,751160,364126,91896,017
131,837
2,490,816
160,635401,338372,827328,327276,371231,968191,647157,033117,98391,460
108,919
2,438,508
(see Gaisie 1973:participation rates
A corollary effect of the changes in fertility and the population age struc-ture and employment, is the effect of changes in fertility on the dependencyratio. Dependency ratio is a rough index of the proportion of the populationwhich is non-productive (i.e. aged under 15 years and above 60 years) as compa-red with that of the productive population or the working age population(15-60 years). In 1960 the dependency ratio was estimated to be 95 (i.e. 95 de-
128
pendants per 100 potential workers) and this figure may be compared with ra-tios of 60 and 70 for the United Kingdom and France respectively in the sameyears. The projections indicate a rise in the dependency ratio from the 1960level of 95 to 114 in 2000 in series A3 and a decline to approximately the levelattained in France in 1960 would be possible only if fertility declined very rapi-dly to less than one-half its present value by the year 2000 (see Gaisie 1973:Appendix VII Tables 1-36).
Such a heavy dependency load may tend to retard economic advancement.The view that the dependency burden in developing countries could be lightenedby putting children to work early and making old people continue to work aslong as they are physically and mentally capable may be rebutted by the factthat in a non-traditional economy the productive contribution of children under15 years and persons aged 60 years and over is insignificant.
Conclusion. The rapid increase in Ghana's populationis engendering many so-cial, economic and political problems, some of which were briefly
discussed in this chapter. But one important aspect of the whole population pro-blem is perhaps the awareness of the public and the government of this problemand the willingness of the individual to participate fully in the task of familyplanning and economic reconstruction, the twin problems which will occupy theminds of Ghanaians for the remainder of the 20th century.
129
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