The overexploitation of natural resources: the case of fisheries and the human factor Ugo Bardi University of Florence, Department of Earth Sciences The Club of Rome
The overexploitation of natural resources: the case of fisheries and the human factor
Ugo Bardi
University of Florence, Department of Earth SciencesThe Club of Rome
Stintino (Sardinia) - 2009
Photo credit: Donata Bardi
Photo credit: Claudio
Stintino, Sardinia
https://www.flickr.com/photos/cnichele65/2836342774/in/photolist-9e1sTk-58PcW6-bxK9kL-58Tq3o-9w34KL-kqG9Mr-NF2Pz-5aEJKV-4DhDMq-5aJTeN-5fTf2B-4DoWS7-aoHsV3-5egoYx-5jCZTC-PfyiW-2EU72w-ajzHxk-8nMp39-miQQFp-5aJYYb-8pPUNN-8pLHzM-8qa12t-6KkX3q-6Jkb5V-aoHsLh-mxQLdb-5DnD3X-Pg5Nt-mbPcZH-5DrU3d-5egi1V-4rJJSU-8pLKQT-8pPVu7-5DnC28-5DrXwU-8pQ6kh-4GUDG2-93fuWk-2R2zcq-o7SEYv-nQFohb-o85xsf-4GUDKF-mXiv38-o8aYSr-4XT1ZH-mzPYEe
Where is the fish?
Photo credit: Sanjay Acharya https://en.wikipedia.org/?title=Jellyfish#/media/File:Chrysaora_Colorata.jpg
Phylosophy of fish
Bardi and Yaxley, The Oil Drum, 2011
"Trawler Skagen harbour" by skagman - http://www.flickr.com/photos/16822508@N05/3177194833/. Licensed under CC BY 2.0 via Wikimedia Commons -http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Trawler_Skagen_harbour.jpg#mediaviewer/File:Trawler_Skagen_harbour.jpg
The area scraped and churned by bottom trawling, a practice described by the oceanographer Sylvia Earle as the equivalent of bulldozing the countryside to harvest squirrels, has been estimated at approximately 20×106 km2 and hence probably includes most of the continental shelf, which covers some 26×106 km2, or about 7 per cent of the surface area of the oceans
From Zalasiewicz, et al. 2011http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1938/1036.short
Give a man a fish, and he will eat for one day. Teach a man how to fish, and he will deplete the ocean.
Photo credit: Fadi Habib, https://www.flickr.com/photos/untitlism/
Photo credit: Chris Metcalf: https://www.flickr.com/photos/laffy4k/
Stock and flow model of the exploitation of mineral resources
Images by the author
U. Bardi and A. Lavacchi, Energies, 2009
An example of the Seneca Effect: Caviar production in the Caspian sea
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Images by the author
World3 calculations 2004
Images courtesy Dennis Meadows
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Humans as agents of thermodynamic potentials
Photo credit: Oekom Gmbh
Image credit: Roberto Rizzatohttps://www.flickr.com/photos/rizzato/
https://www.flickr.com/photos/rizzato/
The Brutal Logic of Climate Change
http://grist.org/climate-energy/the-brutal-logic-of-climate-change-international-shipping-edition/
Sgouridis, Bardi, Csala, http://arxiv.org/abs/1503.06832
The great sustainable transition
The beauty of dissipating thermodynamic potentials
Image credit: Kartik Ramanathan https://www.flickr.com/photos/60999792@N06/
The beauty of dissipating thermodynamic potentials
Image credit: Kartik Ramanathan https://www.flickr.com/photos/60999792@N06/
Chelsea Green2014
www.cassandralegacy.blogspot.com
paljon kiitoksia
http://www.theoildrum.com/node/9583
Total predicted emissions: 5x10+12 t CO2.Maximum allowable for +2° C : 2.3x10+12 t CO2
The beauty of dissipating thermodynamic potentials
The Gambler's fallacy: a serious mis-wiring of the human mind
Fishing boat image by Rafael Lopez, oil wll from Wikipedia
The second law: you can't get even
Hubbert's “peak oil” model
3-stock model
World Model – 6 stocks
Source: http://appinsys.com/globalwarming/Puffins_UK.htm
The 19th century whaling cycle
Source: FAO
“Increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to ruin is rapid."
Lucius Anneaus Seneca (1st century AD), Letters to Lucilius, n. 91
R’ = ProductionC’ = Economic growth
C = CapitalR = Resources
Lotka-Volterra as a description of the economy
R’ = -k1CRC’ = k2CR – K3C
43Bardi, Lavacchi, and Yaxley - 2011
Lucius Annaeus Seneca 4 AD – 65 AD
"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of
our selves and our works if all things should perish
as slowly as they come into being; but as it is,
increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to
ruin is rapid."
The Seneca Effect
The Seneca Effect: when things go wrong, they go wrong fast
U. Bardi, 2011
The Seneca Effect: when things go wrong, they go wrong fast
U. Bardi, 2011
U. Bardi, Energy Sources, 2007
19th century whaling cycle
Stock and flow model of the world system
World3 calculations 2004
World3 – 2004 run
The effects of 118 years of industrial fishing on UK bottom trawl fisheries, Ruth H. Thurstan, Simon Brockington, Callum M. Roberts, Nature Communications, 1, 15, 1013
The Collapse of the UK Fishery
U. Bardi and A. Lavacchi, Energies, 2009
Lucius Annaeus Seneca 4 AD – 65 AD
"It would be some consolation for the feebleness of
our selves and our works if all things should perish
as slowly as they come into being; but as it is,
increases are of sluggish growth, but the way to
ruin is rapid."
The Seneca Effect
Vito Volterra1860-1940
Lotka-Volterra model (LV)