The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040 This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved. New York Energy Forum June 11, 2013 Tom Eizember, Corporate Strategic Planning
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The Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes
in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein and under the heading "Factors Affecting Future
Results" in the Investors section of our website at: www.exxonmobil.com. The information provided includes ExxonMobil's internal estimates and forecasts based upon internal data and
analyses as well as publically-available information from external sources including the International Energy Agency. This material is not to be used or reproduced without the permission
of Exxon Mobil Corporation. All rights reserved.
New York Energy Forum
June 11, 2013
Tom Eizember, Corporate Strategic Planning
As societies and technologies develop over time…
… energy needs evolve as well
Economic and Energy Evolution
Population
Billion
Population Trends Impacts Energy Use
Fertility Rate*
Children per Woman
Global Demographics*
Billion
* Source: World Bank & United Nations
0
3
6
9
2010 2020 2030 20400
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
OECD
Africa
China
India
Southeast Asia
Latin America
0
3
6
9
2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD
Other
Non OECD
China
India
Africa
Age 0-14
Age 65+
Age 15-64
Energy Demand
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
1.0%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1990 2015 2040
Energy Saved
~500
Energy Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 2015 2040
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
1990 2015 2040
Global Progress and Energy Demand
Billion
Population GDP
Trillion 2005$
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
0.8%
Average Growth / Yr.
2010 – 2040
2.8%
OECD
Non OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
25
50
75
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
OECD
Trillion 2005 $
OECD GDP
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD Demand
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
North America
Europe OECD
Rest of OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Non-OECD
0
100
200
300
400
500
1990 2015 20400
10
20
30
40
50
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
China
India
Middle East
Rest of Non OECD
Latin America
Africa
Russia/Caspian
Trillion 2005 $
Non OECD GDP
Quadrillion BTUs
Non OECD Demand
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
ElectricityGeneration
Industrial Transportation Res/Comm
Quadrillion BTUs
2010
2025
2040
Demand by Sector
2010
2025 2040
Industrial
0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2015 2040
Industrial Energy Demand
Chemicals
Manufacturing &
Industry
Energy Industry
Other
Plastics
Fertilizer
Paint
Steel
Automobiles Textiles
Liquid
Fuels
Coal Natural Gas
Agriculture
Lubricants Asphalt
Quadrillion BTUs
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Industrial Energy Demand
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2020 2040
By Fuel
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Oil
Gas
Renewables
Coal
By Region
Quadrillion BTUs
0
50
100
150
200
250
2000 2020 2040
OECD
China
India
Rest of
Non
OECD
Market Heat
Residential / Commercial
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2020 2040
Fuel Demand
Quadrillion BTUs
Electricity
Coal
Oil
Gas
Biomass
Other
Residential/Commercial Outlook
Residential Energy Intensity
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000 2020 2040
Million BTUs per Person
Japan
North America
Europe OECD
China
India
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2000 2020 2040
By Sector
Quadrillion BTUs
Commercial
Residential
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Transportation Sectors
Light Duty Vehicles
Cars
SUVs
Pickup
Trucks
Heavy Duty Vehicles
18-wheelers
Buses
Delivery
Trucks
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Light Duty Vehicle Sales & Efficiency
0
5
10
15
20
2010 2020 2030 2040
Incremental Vehicle Efficiency Gains
Miles per Gallon
Powertrain
Body & Accessories
Vehicle Size
Hybrid
Average
27 MPG
47 MPG
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2040
Elec/PHV
Full Hybrid
Natural Gas
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
Annual New Car Sales by Type
Million Cars
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
Advanced*
CNG
LPG
Conv. Diesel
Conv. Gasoline
2010
Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
100
200
300
400
500
NorthAmerica
EuropeOECD
OtherOECD
China India Middle East LatinAmerica
Other NonOECD
PHV/EV
Full Hybrid
CNG
LPG
Diesel Conv
Mogas Conv
2040
Millions of Vehicles
Powertrain Technology
Light Duty Vehicle Fleet Grows, Mix Changes
*Full Hybrid, Plug-in Hybrid, Electric Vehicles ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Heavy Duty Transportation Efficiency
0
15
30
45
2010 2025 2040
Demand w/o Efficiency Demand
Efficiency Impact
MBDOE
0
15
30
45
60
75
'10-'25 '25-'40 Other
New Truck Efficiency
% Improvement, 2010-2040
Technology
Powertrain
Body
Powertrain
Body
Hybrid
Regional
Impact
Logistics &
Congestion
Truck
Size
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Gas Into Transportation
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
By Sector
BCFD
Light
Duty
Marine
Rail
Heavy Duty
2040 by Region
BCFD
0
2
4
6
8
10
AP NA LA ME EU RC AF
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Growth in Demand from 2010 to 2040
MBDOE
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
15
Gasoline Diesel Jet Fuel Fuel Oil NaturalGas
Other
Non OECD
OECD
Transportation Fuel Mix
0
15
30
45
60
75
2000 2020 2040
Fuel Demand
MBDOE
Diesel
Gasoline
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Jet Fuel
Fuel Oil
Other
Natural Gas
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Electricity Demand by Region
Non OECD
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040
Thousand TWh
Middle East
Southeast Asia
Russia/Caspian
Other Non OECD
China
Africa
India
0
5
10
15
20
25
2000 2020 2040
Thousand TWh
North America
Europe OECD
Other OECD
OECD
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Baseload, Startup 2030
0
4
8
12
16
Coal Gas Nuclear OnshoreWind*
UtilitySolar PV*
2012 cents/kWh
*Wind and solar exclude costs for integration, backup capacity and additional transmission
$60/ton of CO2
$0/ton
Choices for U.S. Electricity
Reliability
Cost
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Electricity Generation
Quadrillion BTUs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
OECD
Non OECD
Electricity Generation by Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
-30
0
30
60
90
120
Non OECD OECD
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
Electricity Generation
Quadrillion BTUs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2020 2040
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
Electricity Generation by Region
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
-30
0
30
60
90
120
Non OECD OECD
Growth in Fuels from 2010 to 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Oil
Nuclear
Gas
Renewables
Coal
Supply
Liquids Supply
MBDOE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Supply by Type
Other Liquids
Biofuels
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2040
Resource*
TBO
Conventional
Crude & Condensate
Tight Oil
Oil Sands
NGLs
Deepwater
Remaining
Resource
Cumulative
Production
* Source: IEA
1930s
1940s 1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
0
20
40
60
80
100
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Global Oil Production by Discovery Date
Discovered before 1930
Source: ExxonMobil estimates based on Wood Mackenzie Limited & Nehring Associates data
MBDOE
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Natural Gas Supply
Local Production
Unconventional
LNG
Conventional
BCFD
North America
BCFD
Europe Asia Pacific
BCFD
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
2000 2020 2040
Pipeline
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Total Energy Demand
Non OECD
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
Quadrillion BTUs
Biomass
Other Renewables
Oil
Nuclear
Quadrillion BTUs
OECD
Coal
Gas
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2020 2040
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
0
5
10
15
20
China India U.S. Europe0
10
20
30
40
2000 2020 2040
CO2 Emissions
Billion Tons
By Region Tons per Person Emissions per Capita
‘10
‘25
‘40
OECD
Rest of Non OECD
India
China
ExxonMobil 2013 Outlook for Energy
Development Challenges and Solutions
World development continues - lives improve and economies grow