THE OPTIMISING OF REGIONAL RADIOSONDE NETWORKS Oleg Pokrovsky Main Geophysical Observatory, Karbyshev str.7, St. Petersburg, 194021, Russian Federation.

THE OPTIMISING OF REGIONAL RADIOSONDE NETWORKS

Oleg Pokrovsky

Main Geophysical Observatory,

Karbyshev str.7, St. Petersburg, 194021, Russian Federation

Outlines:

• (a)    Identify statistically homogeneous areas;

• (b)   Calculate the statistical weights of the information of each RAOB station ;

• (c)    Derive an optimized network configuration for the upper-air stations, including GUAN stations;

• (d)   Calculate error fields for main meteorological parameters (Z500, T500, U700, V700, relative air humidity Q850 used in NWP models) related to the optimized network configuration.

Approach

Kalman Filter (1)

wherewhere:

Kalman Filter (2)

I n f o r m a t i o n m o d e l f o r n e t w o r k

ppp xAy )( ( 1 )

x - t r u e f i e l d ; y - v e c t o r o f m e a s u r e m e n t s a t n e t w o r k

)( pA - o b s e r v i n g s y s t e m o p e r a t o r

p

erro rtm ea su rem enco o rd in a tesitethi ii

ppp

_,__

:),....,;,...,(2

2211

111 )}()({ ppT

xx AA - c o v a r i a n c e m a t r i x f o r L S ( 1 )

Information Weights of Sites

Statistical Invariant:

Information weight of i-th site

)()(}{xxp

trFF

missedissitei thipiiip ___);,.,,,..,( 111

)(/)]()([)( xpipi trFFW

Optimization

Criteria function -

))(()( pxx FFF

Optimization:p

pxp F

))}((max{arg

Criteria examples:

1) A:

2) D:

)()( xx trFF

)det()( xxFF

Part 1

Siberian RAOB network of Roshydromet

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Р и с . . К а р т а сх ем а п о л н о й а эр о л о ги ч еск о й сети Р о сги д р о м ета

д о л го та

40

60

80

шир

ота

20107

22113

22217 22271

22522 22550

2282022845

26063

26258 2629826477

26702 26781

2703727199

274592759527612

2770727730

279442796227995

3400934122 3417234247

3456034731

3485834880

3701837054

2004620069

20274 2029220353

2067420744

20891

21432

2150421647

2182421946 21965 21982

23022

2320523330

23418 2347223552

23804 2388423921

2393323955

2412524266

24343

2450724641 24688

2472624817

24908 24944

24959

25123 25173

2539925400 25428

25551 25563 255942567725703

2591325954

28225 28275

2844528661

2869828722

29231 29263 29282

2957229612

29634 2969829839 29862

30054

3023030309 30372

30521 3055430635 3067330692

30715 30758

30935 30965

3100431088

31168

31300 31329 31369

31510

3170731736

3187331909

31977

32061

32150

32165

32186

32215

32389

32540

32618

35121 36096

A set of RAOB stations presented in WMO list

8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0 1 8 0

Longitude

Siberian RAOB configuration in 1970-1989

40

50

60

70

80

La

titu

de

Soviet Time

RAOB Problems After 1998

• Statistics: 1999: 4-7 sondes per day

• 2000: 10-12 sondes per day

• 2001: 16-19 sondes per day

• 2002: 22-24 sondes per day

• BUT: main problem is absence of regularity:

• 1999: only 2 stations provided daily regular data

• 2002: only 15 stations provided daily regular data

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180

Р и с . . Р асп р ед ел ен и е р ад и озон д о в (ста н ц и и , ч и сл о зап уск ов ) н а А Т Р (О к тя бр ь 1 999 ) в (00Z ) -

Д ол гот а

40

50

60

70

80

Ши

рота

1

8

6

22

3131

29

2830

2731

25

October, 1999

Catastrophic Flood in Siberia

River Lena,

May, 2001

4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

C la ssifica tio n o f a tm o sp h er ic c ircu la tio n p a ttern s (U 8 50 & V 8 5 0 ) in A sia : c la ss 2 : 1 99 9 (1 -1 30 d a y s)

0

2 0

4 0

6 0

8 0

Persisted Atmospheric Circulation Regime during February-May, 2001

Source: SATOB data

Z700 field anomaly,March-April, 2001

8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0 1 8 0 1 9 0

Longitude

RAOB: OPTIMAL /MINIMAL NETW ORK FOR RUSSIAN ASIA (after Pokrovsky, 2003)

40

50

60

70

80

La

titu

de

31168

2143220674

25954

31873

29282

32215

25042

20292

X

3055470414

24125 24266GUAN

GUAN

7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0

Longitude

Siberia RAOB Area Regioning

40

50

60

70

80

La

titu

de

РАЙОНИРОВАНИЕ АТР (СРОЧНЫЕ ДАННЫЕ)

6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

Р и с . . Д о ст а т о ч н а я а эр о л о г и ч еск а я сет ь н а А Т Р : 4 2 ст а н ц и и (и н ф о р м а т и в н о ст ь п р о п о р ц и о н а л ь н а р а зм ер у зв езд о ч ек )

Д о л г о т а

40

50

60

70

80

Ши

рот

а

23955

31168

21432

20674

25594

31873

29282

32215

25042

20292

2412524266

30554

2347223330

23552

36096

28698

23933

28225

24507

24817 2494430054 31004

24343

24959

31510

25913

31369

2540024688

25123 25173

3238932618

25954

2194621824

25563

31977

32150

Sufficient RAOB network

Optimal interpolation H500 RMS error field

6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

Р и с . . П о л е о ш и б о к в о сст а н о в л ен и я п о л я Н 5 0 0 (м ) п о д а н н ы м д о ст а т о ч н о й а эр о л о ги ч еск о й сет и А Т Р и з 4 2 ст а н ц и й

Д о л гота

40

50

60

70

80

Ши

рота 23955

31168

21432

20674

25594

31873

29282

32215

25042

20292

2412524266

30554

2347223330

23552

36096

28698

23933

28225

24507

2481724944

3005431004

24343

24959

31510

25913

31369

25400

24688

25123 25173

3238932618

25954

2194621824

25563

31977

32150

5

25

45

65

85

105

6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 040

50

60

70

80

4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

L o n g i t u d e

S o n d e sta tio n s p ro v id ed p ro file s tw ice p er d a y (0 Z a n d 1 2 Z ) in J a n u a ry 2 0 0 5

4 0

6 0

8 0L

atit

ude

2 2 11 32 2 2 1 7

2 2 5 5 02 3 3 3 0 2 3 4 7 2

2 4 1 2 5

2 4 9 5 92 5 9 1 32 6 0 6 3 2 7 1 9 9

2 8 4 4 52 8 6 9 8

2 9 5 7 22 9 6 3 4

3 0 2 3 0

3 0 7 5 8

3 1 0 0 4

3 1 7 3 6

3 1 9 7 7

3 2 1 5 0

3 2 5 4 03 4 0 0 9

3 4 5 6 03 4 8 5 83 4 8 8 0

6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0 1 8 0 1 9 0

L o n g i t u d e

S ib er ia n R A O B co n fig u ra tio n p ro v id ed ev ery d a y 0 Z a n d 1 2 Z p ro file s in J a n u a ry 2 0 0 7

40

50

60

70

80

Lat

itud

e

2 1 9 4 6

2 3 4 7 2

2 3 9 5 5

2 4 1 2 5

2 4 6 8 8

2 4 9 0 8

2 5 4 0 0

2 5 7 0 3

2 5 9 1 32 8 2 7 5 2 9 2 3 1 2 9 2 6 3 2 9 2 8 2

2 9 5 7 22 9 6 1 22 9 6 3 4 2 9 6 9 82 9 8 3 9 2 9 8 6 2

3 0 0 5 43 0 2 3 0

3 0 3 0 9 3 0 3 7 23 0 5 5 4

3 0 7 1 5 3 0 7 5 83 0 9 3 5 3 0 9 6 5

3 1 0 8 8

3 1 7 3 6

3 1 8 7 33 2 1 5 0

3 2 5 4 0

6 0 7 0 8 0 9 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 1 4 0 1 5 0 1 6 0 1 7 0 1 8 0 1 9 040

50

60

70

80

8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0

Ï î ë å î ø è á î ê â î ññòà í î â ë å í è ÿ ï î ë ÿ Í 50 0 (ì ) ï î ä à í í û ì àýð î ë î ãè ÷åñê î é ñåòè À ÒÐ è ç 3 4 ñòà í ö è é (åæ åä í åâ í î ) â ÿí â àð å -ì àðòå 20 07 ã.

ä î ë ãî òà

40

60

80

øèð

îòà

5

15

25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

80 100 120 140 160 18040

60

80

21946

23472

23955

24125

24688

24908

25400

25703

2591329231 2926329282

295722961229634 29698

29839 29862

3005430230

30309 30372

3055430715 30758

30935 30965

31088

31736

3187332150

32540

Optimal interpolation H500 RMS error field

Responded to Jan-March, 2007, RAOB

Table. Comparison of the optimal and operational RAOB network configurations

in Siberia with account for Z500 objective analysis error (m).

Contribution of measurement data in covariance matrix reduction

RAOB –40 (non-regular, Jan-Mar, 2007)

RAOB-34 (Jan-Mar, 0Z&12Z, 2007)

RAOB-42 (Optimal design)

Mean STD (60-80 N)

58.7 57.6 27.8

Mean STD (40-60 N)

42.3 46.9 42.5

Mean STD 51.0 52.6 34.7

Conclusions (Part 1):

-Number of Siberian RAOB sites was increased during last years

-Most of recovered stations are located in southern part of Siberia close to China border provided by many vertical profiles from Chinese RAOB

-Few stations were added in medium latitude belt and in high latitudes

-Present configuration of Siberian RAOB network does not provide necessary accuracy in analysis of height, temperature and, particularly, wind fields in in high latitudes

Part 2

A CASE STUDY: RA I - AFRICA

RAOB network in RA-I: red-operational (2004); black-nominal in WMO list

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

F ig u re 1 . O p era tio n a l in 2 0 0 4 (red sta rs-4 6 ) a n d W M O n o m in a l (b la ck sta rs-2 6 2 ) R A O B sta tio n s in R A I

Longitude

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30L

atit

ud

e

Statistical Regionning due to zonal wind U700

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 2 . S ta tis t ica l reg io n in g o f zo n a l w in d fie ld U 7 0 0 in R A 1 (o p era tio n a l R A O B -sta rs) : 1 9 9 0 -1 9 9 9

Longitude

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Latitude

Information content weights attributed to existed operational sites

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 3 . In fo rm a tio n w e ig h ts o f R A O B sta tio n s in R A 1 fo r U 7 0 0 (c irc le s ize is p ro p o rtio n a l to w e ig h t)

Longitude

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Latitude

60018

60155

60191 60

525

60549

60571

60630

60656

60680

60760

61024

61052

61291

61442

61687

61901

61902

62306

62337

62378

62403

62414

62423

63450

6374164

500

64650

64910

65503

67083

67197

68174

68240

68263

68328

6844268461

68512

68538 68

588

68816

68842

68906

Relative error (with account for seasonal variability) fields for Z500 objective analysis

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 4 . O b jec tiv e a n a ly s is re la tiv e erro r o f g eo p o ten tia l f ie ld H 5 0 0 (o p era tio n a l 4 6 R A O B )

Longitude

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Latitude

0

0 .1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Relative error (with account for seasonal variability) fields for U700 objective analysis

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 5 . O b jec tiv e a n a ly s is re la tiv e erro r o f zo n a l w in d fie ld U 7 0 0 (o p era tio n a l 4 6 R A O B )

Longitude

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Latitude

0 .1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Scenario for RA-I RAOB extension with account for maximization of information content: red-new 13 stations;

black-operational network (46 stations)

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 6 . O p era tio n a l 4 6 R A O B (b la ck ) a n d o p tim a l 1 3 (red ) s ta tio n s: U 7 0 0 in fo rm a tio n w e ig h ts - p ro p o r tin a l to c irc le s iz e s

Longitude

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Latitude

60611

61096

6763366422

63832

65167

62760

64459

61043

63962

62840

64390

62650

Relative error (with account for seasonal variability) fields for Z500 objective analysis:

extended network

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 7 . O b jec tiv e a n a ly s is r e la tiv e erro r o f h e ig h t f ie ld H 5 0 0 (o p era tio n a l 4 6 R A O B + 1 3 reco v er in g sta tio n s; b la ck p o in ts-W M O lis t)

Longitude

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Latitude

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Relative error (with account for seasonal variability) fields for U700 objective analysis:

extended network

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 8 . O b jec tiv e a n a ly s is r e la tiv e erro r o f zo n a l w in d fie ld U 7 0 0 (o p era tio n a l 4 6 R A O B + 1 3 reco v er in g s ta tio n s; b la ck p o in ts-W M O lis t)

Longitude

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30Latitude

0.05

0.15

0.25

0.35

0.45

0.55

0.65

0.75

0.85

Minimal GUAN network due to U700

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 1 0 . M in im a l G U A N n etw o rk (1 0 s ta tio n s) in R A -I: s ta r s ize is p ro p o rtio n a l to in fo rm a tio n w e ig h ts to m o n th ly U 7 0 0 fie ld s

Longitude

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Latitude

61442

64754

63894

67965

68816

64500

66422

62641

60390

64459

Relative error (with account for multi-year variability) monthly fields attributed to GUAN

for U700

-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

F ig u re 1 1 . O b jec tiv e a n a ly s is re la tiv e erro r o f m o n th ly w in d fie ld U 7 0 0 (G U A N m in im a l n e tw o rk : 1 0 s ite s)

Longitude

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Latitude

61442

64754

63894

67965

68816

64500

66422

62641

60390

64459

0.05

0.35

0.65

0.95

Conclusions (Part 2)

-Missing data areas with respect to operational RAOB station list for RA-I are very significant. Only 46 from nominal 262 sites carried out measurements in January-April, 2004.

-Error fields corresponding to major meteorological variables reveal many gap regions, where the relative errors of meteorological field representation reach 0.7-0.8 levels.

-Search algorithm allows us to develop a scenario for existed operational RAOB network extension from 46 to 59 stations by recover measurements at 13 stations, which provide a substantial improvement of error fields for all meteorological variables in missing data areas

-Existing GUAN network has some gaps in Central Africa, which are a reason of anomaly in objective analysis error fields. An alternative set of ten GUAN sites provides more uniform information coverage of Africa with respect to monthly fields.