THE NEW RUSSIAN MODEL. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY, LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND RUSSIAN-EUROPEAN.
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THE NEW RUSSIAN MODEL. THE NEW RUSSIAN MODEL. WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR
INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT,INSTITUTIONAL DEVELOPMENT,INTERNATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY, LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH, LONG-TERM ECONOMIC GROWTH,
AND RUSSIAN-EUROPEAN INTEGRATIONAND RUSSIAN-EUROPEAN INTEGRATION
A. Illarionov,A. Illarionov,CATO Institute, Washington, USACATO Institute, Washington, USA
Institute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, RussiaInstitute of Economic Analysis, Moscow, Russia
WIIW Spring Seminar “EU-27 and Its Neighbourhood”, WIIW Spring Seminar “EU-27 and Its Neighbourhood”,
1. Appropriation of executive power by the Corporation of secret police (CSP).2. Capture of the Russian state bodies (security services, tax agency, courts, Prosecutor offices, MFA, MoD, parliament, media) by the CSP and use of these bodies in the interests of the CSP. 3. Concentration and monopolization of all significant resources (political, legal, military, security, economic, financial, mass media) in the hands of the CSP. 4. Destruction of the rule of law with new rules of the game: law is above people, the CSP is above law, no people/law above the CSP.5. Ideology and practice of “nascism” (“our ownism”) with selectiveness/absence of identical rules as a leading principle. 6. Rise of state monopolies with privatization of profits and nationalization of costs as a leading principle.7. Siloviki-type PPP (public-private partnership) – coercion of private business to fulfill orders of the CSP and bear the costs.8. Main award of the CSP is “paratrooping” its members (doesn’t matter - whether Russian or foreign) into the state or state-friendly company.
““The Federal government plus regional governors corps… The Federal government plus regional governors corps… should work like one corporation.”should work like one corporation.”
President of Russia at the State Council Meeting,President of Russia at the State Council Meeting,December 24, 2005December 24, 2005..
“The accumulation of powers, legislative, executive, and “The accumulation of powers, legislative, executive, and judiciary – in the same hands, may justly be pronounced judiciary – in the same hands, may justly be pronounced
the very definition of tyranny.”the very definition of tyranny.”James Madison. Federalist papers, # 47.James Madison. Federalist papers, # 47.
“The people should not know “The people should not know who governs them.“who governs them.“
Mikhail Boyarsky, Russian popular actorMikhail Boyarsky, Russian popular actor
Private sector share ofPrivate sector share of Russian oil production shrank from Russian oil production shrank from 83,5% in 2003 to 42% in 200683,5% in 2003 to 42% in 2006
Growth in oil output in Russia has slowed significantly and Growth in oil output in Russia has slowed significantly and not reached the Soviet level yet.not reached the Soviet level yet.
Gas output of Gazprom remained flat for the last 7 years, Gas output of Gazprom remained flat for the last 7 years, while independent producers more than doubled itwhile independent producers more than doubled it.
Russia’s real GDP growth rates among FSU countries Russia’s real GDP growth rates among FSU countries during 3 sub-periods,during 3 sub-periods, 1999–200 1999–20066
“He’s done a helluva of a job. The country has made tremendous strides in the time we’ve been there, and you’ve got to give Putin credit for that. He did a lot of positive things in a very short period of time.”
Mark Mobius, Tempelton Asset Management Ltd.WSJ, January 22, 2007
“Two key factors in any emerging market are economic predictability and political stability. Russia has the first thanks to oil, and the second thanks to Putin.”
Chris Weafer, chief economist, Alfa Bank,WSJ, January 22, 2007
“Thank you for supporting this truly historic event. We sincerely welcome Gazprom as one of our partners in the project… This is historical situation for all sides… I am grateful to you, Mr. President, for your assistance.”
Van der Veer, Royal Dutch Shell,Meeting with the Russian President, December 21, 2006
Press Conference by the President George W. Bush, February 14, 2007, White House:
“Q Is the Vladimir Putin who said the United States is undermining global security and provoking a new arms race the same Vladimir Putin whose soul you looked into and found to be trustworthy? Has he changed? Are U.S.-Russian relations deteriorating?
THE PRESIDENT: I think the person who I was referring to in 2001 is the same strong-willed person. He is a person with whom I have had agreements and disagreements… I've tried to convince Vladimir that NATO is positive… We work together on… common interests, we can accomplish important things for the security of our own people, as well as the security of the world.There's also a relationship in which we can find common ground to solve problems. And that's the spirit -- that's the spirit I'll continue to work with Vladimir Putin on.” http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/02/20070214-2.html