The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for the Worldpetermarsh.eu/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/STEPI-lecture.pdf · The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for the World

The New Industrial Revolution: Opportunities for the World

Lecture at Science and Technology Policy Institute, Seoul, November 6, 2014

Address by Peter MarshAuthor, “The New Industrial Revolution: Consumers,

Globalization and the End of Mass Production”

www.petermarsh.eu

Twitter @petermarsh307

http://[email protected]/

(Hyundai Heavy Industries robotic assembly line)

“There’s a new zeitgeist: I’m seeing a global manufacturing renaissance” :

Jeff Immelt, chief executive, General Electric

Global re-industrialisation on the agenda

But don’t expect a boom in manufacturing jobs

Plant run by Mindray medical equipment group in S China

US factory employment fell by 5m between 2000 and 2013 (17.2m to 12.2m)

EU lost 7m manufacturing jobs 2000-13 (38m to 31m)

3

The New Industrial Revolution:

Opportunities for the World

•What manufacturing means

•Global trends

•Impact of digital thinking/tech convergence

•Opportunities

4




Manufacturing: the key factors

• Creative force behind 10bn unique products

• Accounts for 16 per cent of world economy

• Source of new ideas, fresh thinking and stimulates

services activity

• Employs about 300m people (one third in China) or 1

in 25 of the population

• Contributes to falling prices: manufacturing prone to

deflation (compared to services)

• World contains about 1.5bn large manufactured

objects –of which less than 2pc are “connected”

Manufacturing requires four components…

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MATERIALS

T

SKILLS

ENERGY

CAPITAL

…now a fifth enters the picture

DIGITAL

TECHNOLOGY

AIDS MANUFACTURING

THROUGH FACILITATING

TECHNOLOGY

CONVERGENCE AND

BOOSTING:

CONNECTIONS

CREATIVITY

CUSTOMISATION

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•Global trends

The last 3,500 years

• Pre-industry (1,500BC to 1500 AD) : Iron Age, glass production, metals

• Proto-industry (1500- 1780) ;Venice shipyard (c.1500)

• First Industrial Revolution (1780-1850): steam power, textile

machinery

• Second Industrial Revolution (1840-1890) : communications; railways,

telegraph

• Third Industrial Revolution (1860-1930): science based methodology;

electricity, chemistry

• Fourth Industrial Revolution (1950-2000): computers, electronics

• Fifth Industrial Revolution (2005-?): connections, creativity,

customisation, helped by ICT/technology convergence

World GDP – gross value added by category

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

$b

n*

Financial services, Government spending

Transport, storage and communication

Wholesale, retail trade, restaurants andhotels

Construction

Manufacturing

Mining, Utilities

Agriculture, hunting, forestry, fishing

Source: UN*constant 2005 prices

World manufacturing shares 2012

Asia43%

Europe26%

N America22%

S America3%

Africa2%

Rest of world4%

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China sets the pace

Global manufacturing output, 2012

2556

1994

1076

687

316 280 262 254 240 233 220 210 205 186 162 130 123 121 113 111

$bn, current pricesWorld total: 11,426

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* Estimate Source: UN, IHS Global Insight

Japan manufacturing output and employment

8

10

12

14

16

18

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mill

ions

$bn*

Manufacturing output Manufacturing employment

Sources: UN; BLS*constant 2005 prices

US manufacturing output and employment

10

15

20

25

500

1000

1500

2000

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mill

ions

$bn*



South Korea manufacturing output and employment

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

mill

ions

$bn*



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•Global trends

•Impact of digital/technology convergence

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1. CONNECTIONS

2. CREATIVITY

3. CUSTOMISATION

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CONNECTIONS

Information/materials pathways

(encompassing INTERNET OF THINGS)

Design at a distance

Services addition

Dispersed, fragmented manufacturing is possible as supply/information chains become more

complex

Connected manufacturing: will influence many sectors

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PRODUCTION

BUILDING/MINING

ENERGY

FLIGHT

Y

TELECOMMS

AGRICULTURE

TRAFFIC

HEALTHCARE

Google self-driving cars will require Internet of Things to work properly

New breed of networking/smart grid/dispersed design companies (Sigfox of France/Nuri Telecom

of S Korea/Libelium of US)

A potential boost to broad range of tech-based businesses spread globally

Sensor/system makers: from top left, clockwise, Crompton Greaves (India); Zytronic (UK); Sensor

Instruments(Germany); Worldsensing (Spain)

New industries based on smart sensors/new materials/electronic control: “smart buildings”

From top :Metaswood,Finnish maker of novel building materials; Coodo of German(mobile buildings);

Polysolar of the UK, manufacturer/developer of PV glass .

Holovis (UK): world leader in projection/design systems; applications in manufacturing, simulation-based training, films, gaming

Connection to TV/home entertainment (large curved flat screens, Samsung)

Connected manufacturing links with long-distance service, monitoring of products in use

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2. CREATIVITY

Blending of technologies

Environmental enhancement

Niche thinking

Aerospace features combination of technologies (Korea Aerospace Industries FA-50 fighter)

Carbon fibre production and gene-chips (examples of technology mix)

Shigenobu Nagamori of Nidec (Japan): move to reduce energy consumption of electric motors

(250bn in the world)

Arvedi (Italy): a €600m gamble on “endless strip” process to improve steel’s environmental performance

Niche meisters from Germany: Herrenknecht(tunnelling machines)

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3. CUSTOMISATION

Mass personalisation

3D printing

Robotic tools

Manufacturing personalisation: car production

Essilor of France – world leader in customised lenses using high-tech machines

MED-EL of Austria: leader in cochlear implants

Founders Dr. Ingeborg Hochmair and Prof. Erwin Hochmair

3D printing – adding materials in layers (a form of “additive” technology)

3D printing in small distributed factories (Local Motors of Arizona)

China is making big strides in 3D printing(Beijing Long Yuan machines)

New materials: carbon fibre composites

A range of new products/parts is possible

(Beijing Long Yuan workshop)

Make your own 16th century cornett (Ricardo Simian of Switzerland uses 3D printing)

Printing human tissue in the laboratory: Organovo of California

Robots work with people: Rethink Robotics of US (Baxter)

Future Robot of South Korea moves ahead in “personal robots”

New household machines (LG cleaning robot)

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•Global trends

•Impact of digital/tech convergence

•Strategies

Transfer skills/ideas globally (Crompton Greaves power company, India)

Inside Crompton Greaves’ Belgium factory

Combine technologies, using lessons from different sectors (LSIS, South Korea power

system business)

Study the growth companies (Huawei, China)

Focus on new products with a purpose (Electric motors to cut energy use, Novotorque of

California)

Emily Liggett, chief executive, and Alan Crapo, chief technical

officer, at Novortorque

Make room for mavericks (Sir James Dyson of Dyson appliance company, UK)

Even with global connectivity, local “clusters” remain important

(IMA packaging machine leader, part of key engineering centre for small companies in Bologna)

Don’t jettison manual skills (some production jobs hard to automate)

The manufacturing future: could reach new highs (Wingship Technology of South Korea in sea-plane engineering)

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