The Leadership Mandate in a Fast Changing World 2008 3. Highlight the ... 2025_project.html. Global Trends 2025: A Transformed World. Global Trends 2025 ... Institutions (UN,IMF...)

To develop value-grounded, no-excuse leaders that will transform their organizations, communities and nations to greater levels of performance and achievement.

Lecture 6

GLOBAL TRENDS 2025

The Leadership Mandate in

a Fast Changing World

OUTLINE

1. Leadership in relation to time

2. Summarise the Global Trends

Report 2008

3. Highlight the growing importance of

global leadership

Leadership and Time

Leadership is learning from the past,

preparing for the future and,

managing the present in light of the past

and future

James Magara

Leadership and Time

• Traditional leaders have their eyes on the past and keep seeking to get back to the good old days

• Conservative leaders have their eyes on the present and seek to maintain the status quo

• Strategic leaders have their eyes on the future and their hands feeling the pulse of the future

In a fast changing world…

“We must adapt to changing times while holding on to unchanging values”

• Former US President Jimmy Carter

WHAT KIND OF FUTURE IS

AFRICA SAIING TO?

What is on the horizon?

Prepared by CIA

and National

Intelligence Council,

USA 2008 and made

public last year

Electronic version

can be viewed at

www.dni.gov/nic/NIC_

2025_project.html.

Global Trends 2025:

A Transformed World

Global Trends 2025

The Study - Who was involved? • National Intelligence Council

- USA

• CIA

• Non-USG experts from the United States and abroad

• Participants via the Internet

• Series of discussion sessions across the US and in several other countries

• intellectual input from hundreds of sharp minds

• Most collaborative report of the 4 yet produced

Global Trends 2025

The Study - Who was involved? • “ …the worldwide response

to Global Trends 2025 was

extraordinary. The report

has been translated into

several languages, debated

in government offices,

discussed in university

courses, and used as a point

of departure in community

meetings on international

affairs”

Global Trends 2025:

7 Key Global Issues

1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues 1. Shift in World Power - From Bipolar to Unipolar to

Multipolar System

USA will remain powerful but its power will

decline

Old Players will still be present: USA,

Europe, Russia

New Players: China, India, Brazil

• WHAT ARE THE STRATEGIC ISSUES FOR AFRICA IN RELATION TO THIS?

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

2. Wealth of Nations

Shift in Wealth from West to East

Continued demand for oil and gas,

economically empowering nations like Russia,

Iran, and now Israel (and Uganda plus many

parts of Africa)

Possible energy transition away from oil and

gas to energy storage, bio-fuels, and clean

coal

Sub Saharan Africa

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues: Population Trends

• World Population, currently estimated at 6.9 billion, will increase by 1.2 billion to 8.1 billion

• About 40% of that increase will come from Africa

• Less than 3 percent of the growth will occur in the West

• Older population = less productivity and lower growth rates

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues: Population Trends

Year World Asia Africa Europe Latin

America

North

America

Oceania

2010 6,909 4,167

(60.3%)

1,033

(15.0%)

733

(10.6%)

589

(8.5%)

352

(5.1%)

36

(0.5%)

2015 7,302 4,391

(60.1%)

1,153

(15.8%)

734

(10.1%)

618

(8.5%)

368

(5.0%)

38

(0.5%)

2020 7,675 4,596

(59.9%)

1,276

(16.6%)

733

(9.6%)

646

(8.4%)

383

(5.0%)

40

(0.5%)

2025 8,012 4,773

(59.6%)

1,400

(17.5%)

729

(9.1%)

670

(8.4%)

398

(5.0%)

43

(0.5%)

2030 8,309 4,917

(59.2%)

1,524

(18.3%)

723

(8.7%)

690

(8.3%)

410

(4.9%)

45

(0.5%)

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues: Urbanisation

MEGACITIES

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

3.Population Trends

Population Growth will put

pressure on energy, food,

and water resources;

Demand for food will

increase by 50% by 2030,

but climate change will

create food scarcity.

Land grabbing

New Scramble for African land

• Hedge funds and other foreign firms had acquired large swathes of African land, often without proper contracts

• displacing millions of small farmers.

• Foreign firms farm the land to consolidate their hold over global food markets, the report said.

• For more information, visit http://www.oaklandinstitute.org/

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

Population Trends-

Women in Power Female/Male proportion

Research findings

The World Bank Report, 2009 described a typical African today as an 18½ year old girl in the rural area.

Global Trends 2025: Women in Power

Region Single House

or lower House

Upper House

or Senate

Both Houses

combined

Nordic countries 41.6% --- ---

Americas 22.4% 23.5% 22.6%

Europe - OSCE member

countries

including Nordic countries

21.9% 19.7% 21.5%

Europe - OSCE member

countries

excluding Nordic countries

20.0% 19.7% 20.0%

Sub-Saharan Africa

• Uganda

19.0%

34.7%

19.7% 19.1%

Asia 18.3% 15.3% 18.0%

Pacific 12.4% 32,6% 14.7%

Arab States 11.4% 7.3% 10.7%

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

Global Trends 2025:

A Transformed World:

4.Potential for Conflict

Escalation

• Shrinking USA

power

• Increased conflict

in the Middle East

• Media wars

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues 1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues 5. Climatic Change

Global warming will drastically affect the weather pattern

Will lead to drought, and food scarcity

Water will become very scarce - source of conflicts and wars

Urban overpopulation- infrastructural implications: water, health, food, housing, transportation, education, and jobs

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

Global Trends 2025:

Key Global Issues

1. Shift in World Power

2. Shift in National Wealth

3. Population Trends

4. Potential for Conflict Escalation

5. Climatic Change

6. Role of Multilateral Institutions (UN,IMF...)

7. Role of Non-governmental Organizations

A Growing Role for Religion

• “Religion based networks … may play a

more powerful role than secular

transnational groupings in exerting

influence and shaping outcomes in the

period out to 2025. Indeed, we could be

entering a new age of clerical leadership in

which religious leaders become major

power brokers in resolving future

international disputes and conflicts”

Some specific names used

• Later in the document we see an interesting

conclusion from the authors:

• “Rich rewards in power and influence already fall to

those religious entrepreneurs and televangelists who

span the two hemispheres, the Global South and

North

• Amir Khalede for Muslims and

• Matthew Ashimolowo

• or Sunday Adelaja for Christians.”

A World of Networks

• “In response to likely deficits in global governance, networks will form among states and non-state actors focused on specific issues. These networks will operate to pursue convergent goals and interests, including a genuine intent to solve problems, business self-interest, moral grounds, and the desire of international organizations and NGOs to be relevant to the problems facing a changing world”

• “Within the Christian tradition, the emergence of whole new patterns of authority and

leadership across the Global South entails autonomous ministers and religious

entrepreneurs, whose activities reap high status and great wealth. Before 2025, some

evangelists and megachurch preachers probably will seek to become the leaders of

nations, especially if those countries have been economically devastated during a global

downturn”

Global Trends 2025:

Leadership Will Be Key

Statesmen versus Politicians

•A politician makes decisions with his eye on the next elections while a statesman makes decisions

with his eye on the next generation.

•Which one will you be?

WHAT KIND OF FUTURE WILL WE

CREATE FOR AFRICA IN THE NEXT 50 YEARS

What is on the horizon?