Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming

Fast-Forward to 2025: New Mega Trends Transforming the World as We Know It

Macro to Micro Opportunities on Future Design, Businesses and Our Personal Lives

1. Introduction and Definition of Mega Trends

2. Key Insights into the Global Mega Trends

3. Conclusions

4. The Macro to Micro Approach

2

Agenda

What is a Mega Trend?

What is a Mega Trend?

Mega trends are transformative, global forces that define the

future world with their far reaching impact on business, societies,

economies, cultures and personal lives.

Urbanization – City as a Customer

Smart is the New Green

Social Trends

Connectivity and Convergence

Bricks and Clicks

Innovating to Zero

New Business Models: Value for Many

Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers

Future Infrastructure Development

Health, Wellness and Well Being

Future of Mobility

3

Top Mega Trends Covered By The Visionary Innovation Research Division

Future of Energy

4

News Headlines in 2025

Robots have entered our homes for personal use.

Sensory devices guide our everyday lives.

Mobile financial transactions are now in crypto-currencies.

Big data has entered the Zettabyte era.

3D printing is commonplace. 4D printing is gaining

mainstream acceptance .

High Speed Rail line to connect from London to

Beijing work begins

There are 6 million autonomous cars in Europe

and North America.

Summer Sale: Low-cost holidays in space.

Connectivity & Convergence

10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020

5 billion internet users by 2020

5 connected devices for every user by 2020

500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020

80 Billion Connected Devices Globally By 2020

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

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7 7

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Connected Home – 31% Connected Work –15% Connected City – 54%

• Home Automation

• Home Energy

• Home Health

• Home Entertainment

• Mobility - Mobile

email, Unified

Communication

• Mobile Working

• Enterprise Social

Networking

• eGovernance

• eCitizens

• Personal and Freight

Mobility

• E-learning

• Mobile banking

Sub Trend: Future Connected Living Ecosystem Connected life contains three important aspects of connected home, connected city,

and connected work

Connected Living Total Market: $730 Billion in 2020

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QIVICON B2B Business Hub including partners from…

Health (E.g

Tunstall)

Multimedia (E.g

Samsung)

Automation (E.g Belkin)

Security (E.g Pax)

Energy EnBW, Solon

Appliances, electronics (A&E) Miele, Samsung

QIVICON CONNECTED HOME PLATFORM for consumers aggregating service from all partners.

Consumer Homes

B2B

B2B2C

Case Study: Connected Home’s B2B Platform Of Deutsche Telekom

Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital data through use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with the local environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which has implications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities.

Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World

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Augmented Reality Impacting Different Personal Experiences

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

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Implication: Connectivity Is Pushing Convergence Connectivity will Accelerate Convergence of Industries, Products, Technologies and

Competition

INDUSTRIES

PRODUCTS

Car Unmanned Technology Autonomous Cars

TECHNOLOGIES

Building Technologies Smart Automation Smart Home Hubs

Space Industry Solar Industry Space Based Solar Power

1

3

2

Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis Image Source:: ̀ Creative Commons and Dreamstime.

Impact of Connectivity and Convergence - “Virtual Design & Development Nirvana”

Shorter Design and Product Development Cycles Examples in Healthcare and Auto Industry

Digital Automotive Factory (VW Example)

Bio Simulation in Healthcare Can Save $200 to 300 million in

drug development

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Bricks and Clicks

13

Future of Clicks in Retail Industry Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting

for 19% of Total Retail

$11.8 Trillion

$23 Trillion

$18.7 Trillion

$11.25 Trillion

$4.3 Trillion

$0.55 Trillion

Online Sales Non-Online Sales

5%

95%

19%

81%

14

2011 2025

United States $1.32

Trillion

24%

18%

China $1.30

Trillion

United Kingdom $0.21

Trillion

Germany $0.09

Trillion

Japan $0.17

Trillion

26%

15%

10%

Era of Contraction

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Bricks and Clicks: Impact of Bricks and Clicks on Store Formats Retail Formats Are Becoming Smaller and Unique With More Emphasis Being Placed on the

Concept and Urban Location of the Store

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Pre-1970s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000 2010 2012 2013

Av

era

ge S

tore

Siz

e (

Sq

ft)

Grocery Stores

Convenience Stores

Supermarkets

Club Warehouses

Hypermarkets

Concept Stores

Express Stores

Era of Expansion

Source: RetailNet and Frost & Sullivan Analysis.

Evolution of Retail Formats, Global, 1970–2012

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Urbanization Will Compel Retailers to Shrink Store Sizes Retailer Store Size to be 15-20% Less than the Current Average Store

Size by 2020

15%-20% smaller

Big-Box Small-Box

Examples of New Small Format Stores

Tesco Express eBay Pop Up Store

John Lewis Small Stores

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Connectivity in Retail: Emerging Technologies Technology Converting Buyers into Multi-Channel Shoppers

Location-based services Augmented Reality

Body Scanners Selfridges

Motion Sensing

Holography

QR Coding

Foursquare Wal-Mart

Home Depot

Tesco Store Trek

Diesel

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Fully Digital, Retail-Style Cyberstore

One-stop Experience for Entire Model Range

Gamification, Augmented Reality Offers Tailor-

made services

Specially Trained Dealer Personnel Interactivity

London Flagship Store

Highly personalized customer dialogue

Case Study: Audi City London - First Digital Car Showroom Example of Future Digital Car Showrooms that will be “Unlimited”, Personalised, Socially Connected

and Digitally Integrated

Smart is the New Green

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Mega Trend :

Urbanisation - “City as a Customer”

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Mega Cities Mega

Regions

Mega Corridor

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Smart and Sustainable

Cities

Cities, and Not Countries, Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future

Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the South Korea’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%. Top 4 Metropolitan Cities (Rhine-Rur (15% GDP), Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin) to account for 57% of Germany’s GDP by 2025 What are the Micro Implications? High Economic Power Hub and Spoke Business Model Transit oriented development New Mobility Solutions

City as a Customer

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Case Study : How Siemens Aligns Itself to Mega Trends

Source : Siemens AG. All rights reserved

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New mobility business models like car sharing

Cars designed around Cities and not cities

designed around cars

New urban vehicle technologies like Traffic

Jam Assist, Valet Parking

Connected Driving e.g. V2V and V2I

Digital Retail Stores

City Taxis

(perhaps Autonomous in future)

Case Study : City as A Customer – What does it mean to Car Industry?

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Social Trends

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Women Empowerment Demographic shifts are driving the empowerment of women

Female junior exec pay in

the UK is rising faster than male counterparts’

Earnings

There are 117 female directors of FTSE 100

companies

By 2020 over half of

millionaires in the UK will be female

Wealth Entrepreneurship

The number of women-owned businesses

increased by 59% in the US since 2000

Leadership 1 Education

Women are getting the

majority of higher education awards

Power

In Nordic countries

women could soon have equal political power

2 3

4 5 6

Women Dominate Social Media Women are the routers and amplifiers of the social web

127m active users

50% Female

90m active visitors

82% Female

So What?

Women are said to control

between 80% and 90% of key spending categories worldwide

Women are said to be more

likely than men to interact with and about brands online

Women in the UK are said to control

online purchasing (60%) and mobile purchasing (one in six

women compared to one in nine men)

845m active users

57% Female

150m active users

68% Female

Case Study : Women Drivers Certain societies are leading in the closing of gender parity

In the US from 2012 there were more women drivers than men

In the UK women licence holders are rising (whilst men are declining) and women are also driving more often and for longer

What does it mean to car companies

Personalised Vehicles •Driving dynamics

personalisation •Mood lighting

High Quality Materials •Non wearable materials •Sustainable and natural

fabric

Seamless Connectivity •Touchscreens and gesture

control •NFC enabled

•Integration with personal devices

Mega Trend :

Innovating to Zero

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Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020

Zero Emissions from Cars

Zero Accidents

Zero Breaches of

Security

Zero Crime Rates

Zero Waste/ Emissions

Complete Recyclability from

Households (Cradle to Cradle Concept)

Zero Defects and Zero

Faults

Carbon Neutral Factories and Retail Stores

Carbon Neutral Cities

Zero Corporate

Debts

Zero Emails

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 32

Examples of “Innovating to Zero”

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

Off-the-Grid Buildings - On-site Energy Harvest -

Use of Intelligent Systems - Increase use of renewable energy

Net Zero Hospitals -

- Energy efficient buildings - Greener Transport - Waste Reduction and

Waste Recycling - Increase use of Renewable

Energy

Cutting Edge IT -Infrastructure and Services -

that convert Ideas to implementation on real-time

Instant File Sharing - Networking Interfaces -

Zero Management Gaps -Zero Processing Time-

Zero Learning Gaps-

- In-house design, cutting, finishing

- Continuous, speedy deliveries

- Direct point-of-sale data collection,

- Daily analysis of product sales and customer feedback using software analytics

Zero faults and zero - errors in manufacturing

Highly Strict Quality - Control

- Strong Health and Safety Measures

- Safety Days (eg. Shell) - Life-Saving Rules within

facilities - Active safety systems in

vehicles that over ride drivers

Zero Energy Building

Zero Accidents Zero Defects

Carbon Neutral City

Zero Time Business

Incubation

Zero Design-To-Shelf (Retail)

33 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Mega Trend :

New Business Models: Value for Many

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New Business Models

Personalization and Customization

Personalization & Customization

Nike and BMW

Quirky .com

Co-Creation

One-off Experience

Pay as you go PAYD and

PAHYD Car Insurance

(BMW on Demand)

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012

35 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Will Replace

“Value for Many”

“Value for Money”

Free Premium

Freemium

+

=

Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 36 Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.

Case Study: Volkswagen Group To Implement Modular Tool Kit Strategy To Design and Sell Same Cars in Global Markets With Local Personalisation

MQB - Modular Transverse Matrix (Number one

platform-2020) Development from platform strategies to modular tool

kits

Source: Volkswagen, Frost & Sullivan analysis

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Conclusions

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Some Key Trends that are Important and Not Discussed Today

Circular Economy Virtual Currency Future of Mobility Health, Wellness, and Wellbeing

3D/4D Printing Space Jam Deep Sea Mining Future of Energy (shale

gas)

Utilities of The Past

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18TH CENTURY

Industrial Revolution

19TH CENTURY

Electricity

20TH CENTURY

Communication Industry

LATE 20TH CENTURY

The Internet 21st century

utilities?

21st Century Utilities: What is the Future ?

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Big data ? Healthcare ?

Mobility ?

Media ?

Macro Micro

From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation

Mega Trend Selected trends that impact your

business and markets

Sub Trend A sub-layer of trends that has a

wide ranging impact

Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario-

building and macro economic forecasts

Impact on Future Product/ Technology

Analysis of Opportunities and Unmet Needs

To

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Learn More About “New Mega Trends”

Published Book:

New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives

By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=577423

Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research

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Follow Sarwant’s series on Mega Trends on Forbes.com http://www.forbes.com/sites/sarwantsingh/

Questions and Answers

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