The Korayk Upland glaciers: new data after 60 years [Maria Ananicheva]

Perth, September 2010

The Korayk Upland

glaciers:

new data after 60

years

Maria D. Ananicheva, Gregory

Kapustin,

Institute of Geography RAS,

Moscow, Russia

Some general evidence

Koryak Highlands

Located:

on the North-east Asia, within the territory of

Chukotka and Kamchatka autonimic districts,

on the coast of the Bering Sea between the

Gulf of Anadyr and Kamchatka Peninsula.

Consists of short ridges, ridges of medium

height.

The length of the upland is 880 km, width up

to 270 km. Height varies from 600 to 1800 m

(The highest point is 2,562 m - Ledyanaya

Mountain).

The main ranges: Vetveysky (height 1,443 m),

Pahachinsky (to 1715 m), Pylginsky (up to

1355 m), jutting into the sea by Gauvin

peninsula , Olyutorskij (up to 1558 m),

forming Oljutor Peninsula Neprokhodimy (up

to 1450 m), Koyverlansky (up to 1062 m),

South Mainsky (1265 m), resting into Mainsky

Plateau (Parhanoy Plateau), Snegovoy and

Ukaelyat ranges (glaciated).

Data about glaciers of Koryak Upland

Modern glaciers were discovered by geologists in the late 1930's;

• In 1955 A.P. Vaskovsky published the results of laboratory calculations of glaciers, based on aerial photography, he mentioned 480 glaciers and snow patches of the area ~ 185 sq.km.

3 years later, M. I. Malyh was there and he counted 282 glaciers in the area of 60-63 ° N and 166.5-176.5 E, among them - the valley morphological type and a variety of corries (circus type).

N.M. Svatkov conducted field work on 3 glaciers of the Koryak Upland in 1961, he was the main author of Koryak Upland Volume of the Inventory of Glaciers of the USSR

Inventory of the glaciers of the USSR, Volume 20, Part 1, Koryak Upland:

At the time of its publication the Koryak Upland contains 715 glaciers (author NM Svatkov). Dated by 1950

Glaciers were indentified by topographic maps, compiled mainly basing on aerial photo surveys.

Why is such a big difference in the estimates? •

•

Researchers came in this area only in 1990-s. Various geomorphological objects

have been studied, in particular rock glaciers (Galanin, 2005). By Galanin, the

number of REAL glaciers is close to what is indicated in the end of 1950s by M.I.

Malykh (282 glaciers of 180 km2 in area )

Regions of rock glaciers of different types and

glaciers spreading over north-eastern Asia (Galanin,

2005)

1 – regions of spreading active and dead rock glaciers,

mainly near-slope type;

2 – regions of contemporary glaciarization according to

other researchers;

3 – main watershed and the boundary between Arctic

and Pacific glaciologic basins;

4 – areas of discovery and field studies of rock glaciers:

Б – Bahapchinskie Mountains; И – Iskaten Range; К –

Koni Peninsular; М – Meynypelgynsky Mountain Massif;

П – Provedenskiy Mountain Massif; Пе – Pekulney

Range; Х – Khasynsky Range; Ки – Kilgansky Mountain

Massif;

I. Determining the present state of Koryak glaciers

• The vastness of Koryak

Upland, the requirements of high resolution and coverage of surveys, as well as time, suitable for shooting glaciers defined our choice: We used satellite data

• Landsat, and Terra / Aqua (EOS AM-1) and ASTER (Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer).

• Both individual images, and their mosaics were studied

2008_07_29Landsat

2002_08_15ASTER 2002 -ASTER

2008- Landsat

3D surfaces: glaciers of Koryak Upland

3d_1Landsat

We have found only 237 glaciers.

Considered space surveys of the same plots in different years, but in the same season.

Season is from late July to early September. There is this time when the most heat-

resistant snow and ice bodies could be revealed in those areas.

If at least one of the periods of observation any traces of glaciers were found, it means

that a glacier existed in this place… or do not exist or disappeared (melted), and all

subsequent formations are just snow patches.

For 3 D we used SRTM30

Why it was found ~3 times lesser glaciers in the Koryak Upland (2003) than - by N.V. Svatkov (in the Inventory of glaciers) ?

• According to Galanin A.A. (2005)

rock glaciers are located in

GLACIER zone, so it is easy to take

them for glaciers

• There is no data in the USSR

Glacier Inventory about rock

glaciers, so it is impossible to

indentify their locations

When the Inventory of glaciers were

prepared many snow patches were

taken for glaciers..Since that time they

melt out …

Climate is changing, however no

intensive warming here..

The question remains open…

Absolute and relative reduction (S )of Koryak glaciers:

Number of

glaciers

Are a of glaciers by the

USSR Glacier Inventory,

1950-EPS,

km2

Are of glaciers,

2003, km2

Mean

absolute

S, km2

Mean

relative

S, %

243 176.6 54.4 0.56 66.5

The total retreat of the glaciers of this region varied from 40 to 69 % as

compared to aerial photography surveys (1950).

This is the most intense reduction among the studied glacier systems of the

Russian Subarctic.

However we can’t exclude errors of the area meanings on the date of Inventory

creation, having in mind “exaggeration” of glacier number by account of rock

glaciers and snow patches.

Therefore the assessment of area reduction about 66% we consider preliminary

and required checking.

N.M. Svatkov personally studied a number of glaciers around peak Ledyanaya

in situ (Svatkov, 1965, Svatkov, Tsvetkov, 1965). For those glaciers the

reduction is 40-50% compared with 2003. It is never the less, a large value.

The analysis of the retreat (reduction in area) of Koryak glaciers

by groups with the same morphological type and the same aspect

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Asymmetric

Corrie

Valley Corrie-valley Compound Corrie Corry-

Hanging

Near-slope Cirque Hanging

Mean relative dS (%) dependence of Morphological type

0,00

10,00

20,00

30,00

40,00

50,00

60,00

70,00

80,00

В

З

С

СВСЗ

Ю

ЮЗ

Относительное отступание ледников по экспозициям (%)

Maximal reduction is attributed to the

glaciers of N and NE aspects.

The greatest warming within Russia

ocurred along the latitudinal belt 55-62º

N, to the north and south the temperature

increase is not so pronounced but takes

place (Shmakin, 2009)

Linear trends for the recent 30 years: from 1.5°С/30 yr to 0.2°С/30 yr, both

for Тyear, and for Тsum air temperature.

The trends indicates long lasting warming in this region, but catastrophic scale

of glacier reduction can be explained only by sharp decrease of precipitation

(or errors in the Inventory values).

The total PCP records (from weather stations) for the recent 30 years indeed

shows negative trends here: from - 60 до - 250 mm/ 30 years.

. Relative retreat of glaciers by aspect,%

Glacier system Modern

area, km 2

Period from

to

dS, km2 dS, %

Suntar-Khayata

Mountains

162.2 1945-2003 -37.2 19.3

Chersky Range 113.0 1970-2003 -43 28

Byrranga

Mountains

24.4 1967-2003 -5 16.5

Korayk Upland 37.3 1950-2003 -109 66.5

Russian Mountain

SubArctic Glaciers

Change by area (dS)

II. The evolution of the Koryak glaciers in the near future

• Significant reduction of Koryak glaciers motivated us to estimate the near future evolution of GLACIER SYSTEMS of this region.

• The term “glacier system” is considered as a set of

glaciers united by their common links with the

environment: the same mountain system or

archipelago location and similar atmospheric

circulation patterns. The glaciers are related to each

other usually by parallel links from atmospheric inputs

and topographical forms to hydrological and

topographical outputs, and demonstrate common

spatial regularities of glacier regime and other

features.

• The method was published in ( Ananicheva, 2009), but we develop it from application to application onto various mountain regions

• We used AOGCM – ECHAM5 (B1) as a climate development scenario

1 Basin Machevna- Apuka rivers

2 Basin of Anivayam River – Machevana Bay

3 Glacier system of Pikas – Uekalyat ranges

4 Glaciers of Vatyna River basin

5 Glaciers of Snegovoy- Uekalyat ranhes

6 Basin of Olyutorskiy Inlet

7 Basin of Apukavayam River

8 Basin of Korf Inlet

We allocated 8 glacier

systems for projection

of glacier development:

2.1 Balance profiles constructed by climate data and modelled (upper

points) data for glacier systems of Koryakia: baseline period and

projected by the model ECHAM5, B1

Profiles of С (accumulation) - by А=С at mean for a glacier system ELA. Lower ELA – by observed P and coefficient of

concentration of snow on glaciers (Kc)

There is no direct data about P on high levels. We used modeled values of P, calculated by ( Krenke, Mikhailov, 1986)

specially for this region.

Кс depends on the glacier size and has constant meaning for various morphological types of prevailing glaciers in the

system ~ 1.4-1.8

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

А,

С м

м

Elevation, m asl

Glacier system of Korf Inlet

A

C

AprCpr

Profiles of А (ablation) - by Тsum, depending on a set of ice

facies ( cold or warm glaciers).

Тsum at low levels – by weather stations, lapse rate of Тsum

= from 0,4°С до 0,6°С/100 м

For upper levels – by distant stations and lapse rate close to

dry-adiabatic (0,74°С/100m) depending on elevation and

climate dryness.

Into Тsum we introduced the correction on cooling of air by

glacier surface (Tg for each elevation interval of the system

by formula Tg = 0.85Tng – 1.2 (Davidovich, Ananicheva,

1996).

Ablation was calculated by empiric formula:

А = 1.33 (Тsum + 9,66)2,83 (Krenke, 1982)

2. 2 Hypsographic schemes for each system ---

to understand ice distribution after the reduction of glaciers in the system

Method of hypsographic schemes construction: summarizing areas by elevation

interval ( 200 m) for entire number of glaciers of the given system with use of

topo-maps, satellite images, DEM, geometric schemes of glaciers in the USSR

Glacier Inventory.

For Koryak Upland we used already NEW data, obtained by Landsat and

ASTER

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3

150

350

550

750

950

1150

Area, sq. km

Ele

vati

on

, m

asl

Glacier system of Korf Inlet

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

300

700

1100

1500

1900

2300

Area of ice, sq. km

Ele

vati

on

, m

asl

Glacier system of Pikas-Uekalyat ranges

Assessment of the evolution of Koryak Upland glacier

systems up to 2049-60.

In given work we used a GCM of Max Plank Institute - ECHAM5 (B1)

as the climatic scenario

The resolution of the model is 2.1°х2.1° in geographic coordinates,

that is up to now the most frequent grid-net of model outputs for

AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean Global Circulation Model).

These outputs are presented on the site:

http://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/wissenschaft/modelle/echam/echam5.html

Among the outputs important for mass balance of glacier systems

parameters – mean monthly ( summer) temperature – Тsum-pr and

total precipitation P tot-pr (projected) were applied.

Ледниковая система - бассейн залива Корфа

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

А, С мм

Вы

со

та

, м

A

C

Apr

Cpr

Model values:

Тsum : from 6,7 to 10,6°С

(in northern regions the temperature will be higher than in the south of Korak Upland),

P tot-pr: 400 - 700 mm/yr

(maximum- in the center and east of the region).

ELApr

2.3 The elevation of the glacier

termini (Нend), necessary for

calculation of area change

under any scenario of climate

development, - by the formula,

deriving from the hypotheses of

Gether-Kurowsky about twice

more retreat of glacier terminus

as compared to its ELA:

The share of reduction of the area by elevation between the termini level and upper points of the glacial

system ----by empirical data

For Koryak glacier systems morphological type glaciers - cars and different subtypes of cars are

characteristic,

we analyzed the results of repeated surveys by altitude for 3 glaciers- corries (Polar Urals) (Tsvetkov, 2006).

The average difference between the areas before and after warming represents a curve of distribution of ice

under glaciers retreat, which is parameterized by parabola, shifted to the top (of the glacier system).

Hends = ELAp – (Hhigh – ELA) = 2 ELA - Hhigh

Glacier system The shift of

Нela

(from base

to projected

period),

m

The elevation range

of the glacier

system, m

Glaciated area,

km2, %

Ablation and

accumulation at the

ELA, mm

Balance, cm yr-1 ***

Baseline

**

period

Projecti

on

period

Baseline

period,

km2

Projection

Period, km2

(%)

Baseline

period

Projecti

on

period

Baseline

period

Projecti

on

period

Koryak Upland

Pikas’-Uekalyat

ranges -200*

970

1200

33,7 33.7(100) 1500 2050 -19.58 399.0

Uekalyat – Snegovoy

ranges 343

960

600

18,9 9.04(47.6) 1750 2250 2.36 106.6

Vatyna River basin -56 720 880 11,3 11.2 (99.2) 710 1450 75.04 111.8

Anivayam- Machevna

rivers basin 83

500

120

3,9 2.97 (76.1) 2400 2650 5.50 6.25

Machevna- Apuka

rivers basin 142

880

1000 1,93

1.92 (99.5) 1850 2100 5.45 -27.13

Apukavayam River

basin -225

980

1320

15,8 15.8(100) 620 1480 30.37 14.5

Oyutorsky Inlet basin

293

1070

500

6,8 2.8 (41.2) 720 2920 12.19 0.35

Basin of Korf Inlet 108 740 520 12,22 10.1(55.8) 460 2310 17.51 13.8

Change the basic characteristics of the Koryak glacier systems to

2040-2069 (ECHAM5, B1)

*- minus means descend of the ELA

** - baseline period for climate (1960-91), the glaciers’ state is determined by space images on 2003

*** - balance was calculated as a difference between ablation and accumulation

Totally, the area loss up to 2070 will reach only 17% as compared with baseline period

First time since 1950 the area and number of glaciers of Koryak Highlands are defined by satellite

imagery, dated by 2003. Comparison with the Inventory of glaciers of the USSR showed a large

discrepancy, both in a number of glaciers,

Significant retreat can hardly be fully explained by climate change, taking place there. However, the

trend to a decrease in precipitation and increased temperature of the warm period until the notes on

most of the region adjacent to the meteorological stations.

An approach to project the evolution of glaciated mountain systems of Eurasian subarctic is presented.

Despite the rather "warm" scenario in general, we have obtained varied picture of glaciological

characteristics for glacier systems in the region.

Precipitation factor is important, since the Koryak Upland is in the area with low rainfall, the monsoons

do not get there. Aleutian Low, unlike Icelandic Low, does not persist there in the warm half of a year.

Some (2) systems will not be feathered by the reduction of glaciers and their ELA even will fall as a

result of relatively high precipitation; the rest systems (6) will demonstrate the area reduction and the

rise of the ELA as high as 100-400 m.

The overall decrease of glacier area of Koryak Upland will be only 17% of current value.

Small decrease of the area, according to the model ECHAM 5, leads to the conclusion that the results of

the comparison of state of glaciers by the images and Inventory (decrease in area by about 50-70% over

50 years), most likely is related to some errors in determination of areas in the Inventory - their

overestimation due to difficulties of differentiation of snow from an ice surface.

In any case, a small upcoming change can testify that the glaciers already by 2003, had entered a phase

of compliance with the climate.

Conclusions

Future plans

Application of an ensemble of models - as the climate scenario,

both for warming and cooling

Estimation of the volume of glaciers in the glacial systems of the near

future:

According to the Inventory of glaciers and the present estimates of

volumes for different types of mountain glaciers it is possible to plot the

relationship between the volume and area in the system by breaking

them into certain parts so as to cover the entire range of projected

systems (excluding the volcanoes).

In case of the ice mass loss in glacier systems (Russian mountain

systems of Sub Arctic)

- to assess the melt runoff and its contribution to sea level rise

Thank you for your attention!