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The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Tourism/Joachim_Wi · PDF file The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives • Population Ageing • Depopulation and • Shrinking...

Aug 22, 2020

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  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 1

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    The Future Trends

    in Tourism -

    Global Perspectives

    ‚the future of TOURISM‘,

    a Club of Amsterdam conference 31.05.2007, Amsterdam.

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 2

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    [A] Tourism – already a global competition

    The current state:

    facts & figures

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 3

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 4

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Data provided by: World Economic Forum; copyright © Maplecroft.NET Limited 2007

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 5

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 6

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 7

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 8

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 9

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

     The World‘s Top-30-Airports (in terms of passenger traffic) and Share of World Regions

    Source: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 10

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    The future state:

    forecasts & figures

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 11

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    2005 – 2025:

    Two Asian Decades

    [T1] Tourism Future - New Geographies

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 12

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Source: WTTC 2007

    Asia‘s Future Tourism Tigers

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 13

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Source: WTTC 2007

    Asia‘s Future Tourism Tiger

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 14

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Source: WTTC 2007

    Asia‘s Future Tourism Tigers

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 15

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 16

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    LCC in Asia‘s Tourism Market [2006]

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 17

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Source: UNWTO: http://www.unwto.org/facts/eng/vision.htm

    UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [International Tourist Arrivals Forecast]

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 18

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    UNWTO‘s Tourism 2020 Vision [Forecast]

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 19

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Passenger Traffic Growth Forecasts 2006 – 2025 in World Regions PaxKm 2005 in bn. Growth Forecast 2006 – 2025

    Quelle: Feldhoff, GR Mai 2007

    Average Annual Growth Rate

    in %

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 20

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Europe‘s New Burden -

    Retirement Poverty

    [T2] Tourism Future – „Ageing Europe“

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 21

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Life exspectancy at birth, 2001

    Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 22

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Population Ageing in the EU, France and Italy, 2000-2050

    Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 23

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Facts:Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

    • By 2030 the EU can expect 14 percent fewer workers and 7 percent fewer consumers as 2005

    • According to the United Nations, population ageing is increasingly becoming one of the most salient social, economic and demographic phenomena of our times.

    • By 2050, the number of people over 60 in Europe will reach 40% of the total population or 60% of the working age population.

    • Population Ageing

    • Depopulation

    and

    • Shrinking Cities

    [in EUROPE]

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 24

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Population Ageing in the EU:

    • Germany • Belgium • Denmark • Spain • France

    Years 2000 / 2020 / 2050

    Share of persons 60 years and over [as a % of the total population; Source: Eurostat]

    Germany: 2000: 22,9% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 41%

    Belgium: 2000: 22.1% - 2020: 30% - 2050: 38%

    Denmark: 2000: 19.9% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 36%

    Spain: 2000: 21.8% - 2020: 28% - 2050: 44%

    France: 2000: 20.7% - 2020: 29% - 2050: 38%

    Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 25

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    • Population Ageing

    • Depopulation

    and

    • Shrinking Cities

    [in EUROPE]

    Consequences:Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

    • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion

    • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Skrinking Wealth

    • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems

    • Large Scale Immobilities & • Neglected Space [Destinations]

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 26

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Consequences:Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

    • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion

    • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Skrinking Wealth

    • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems

    • Large Scale Immobilities & • Neglected Space [Destination]

    • Population Ageing

    • Depopulation

    and

    • Shrinking Cities

    [in EUROPE]

    Results from the SHARE-Project [http://www.share-project.org]

    ...clearly indicate that men and women with a lower socio- economic status have already a worse physical health than those with a higher socio- economic position

    Among both men and women, a low educational level or income is associated with a higher risk of reporting less than good self- perceived health, long-term problems, as well as activity limitations due to health problems.

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserved 27

    The Future Trends in Tourism - Global Perspectives

    Consequences:Tourism Future & Ageing Europe

    • Old Age Poverty & • Social Exclusion

    • Shrinking Income • Shrinking Consumption • Skrinking Wealth

    • Growing Health Risks & • Long Term Health Problems

    • Large Scale Immobilities & • Neglected Space [Destination]

    • Population Ageing

    • Depopulation

    and

    • Shrinking Cities

    [in EUROPE]

    Discussed Solution: New Migrant Workers:

    80–700 million migrants by 2050!

    A sustainable increase of VFR-Tourism shall follow!

  • Dr. Joachim Willms [tourism-futures.org] Copyright © 2007 Joachim Willms – all rights reserve