THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY Roger Duncan April 19, 2013
THE FUTURE OF ELECTRICITY Roger Duncan
April 19, 2013
EVERYTHING
IS
ENERGY
STEAM TURBINE GAS TURBINE
COMPRESSION-
IGNITION ICE SPARK-IGNITION ICE
ELECTRICITY PLANES
SHIPPING CARS & TRUCKS
STEAM TURBINE GAS TURBINE
COMPRESSION-
IGNITION ICE SPARK-IGNITION ICE
COAL
GAS
NUCLEAR
BIOMASS
NATURAL
GAS
KEROSENE
GASOLINE DIESEL
Charles
Parson
s
1884
Nicolau
s Otto
1876
Rudolp
h Diesel
1893
John
Barber
1791
WIND GENERATOR
Charles
F. Brush
1888
SOLAR CELL
Charles
Fritts
1883
FUEL CELL
William
Robert
Grove
1839
Conventional Energy
System
Fossil Fuel Power
Plant Office Building
Petroleum
Vehicle
Unified Energy
System
Zero Energy Home
PHEV/BEV Distributed Utility
Fossil Fuels
Solar Wind
Nuclear
Energy Conversion
Megatrends
When (Time)
Who (Decision-
makers)
Why (Workloads)
Where (Location)
How (Technology)
What (Fuels)
What (Fuels)
Decarbonizatio
n
Fossil Fuels Renewable Energy
What (Fuels)
From Few To
Many
OIL
GAS
COAL
NUCLEA
R
HYDRO
WIND
SOLAR GEOTHERM
AL
BIOFUEL
SYNTHETI
C LIQUID
OCEAN
What (Fuels)
The Transition Will Be
Slow
Slow Transition to
Renewables?
Energy transitions take decades, if not
centuries
Large sunk investments in current system
Extensive and expensive new infrastructure
requirements
Persistence and adaptability of established prime
movers
Skilled labor
requirements
Distributed Solar is
the exception to
the rule
14 April 29, 2013
Duncan/Webber
UT Austin
Technology Megatrend
More productivity from less material
“Accelerating
Ephemeralization”
– Fuller
“Law of
Accelerating
Returns” –
Kurzweil
“Moore’s Law” –
Moore
Nanotechnology and Energy
Low cost solar cells
Hydrogen production from water
Graphene
Solid state lighting
Super strong lightweight materials
Transmission lines
Energy Storage
Technology Megatrend
More productivity from less motion –
Principle of Least Action
Pierre-Louis
Moreau de
Maupertuis
Leonhard Euler Gottfried Wilhelm
Leibniz
Technology Megatrend
Why (Workloads)
Electrification of
transportation system Computer loads
Robotics Electrification of industrial
processes
Increase space used
Decentralization
Where (Location)
When (Time)
Shifting the time of both energy conversion and
consumption is a game changer for utilities,
transportation and buildings
Embedded Intelligence
24 April 29, 2013
Duncan/Webber
UT Austin
Energy Megatrends
result in energy
efficiency and
automation
Who (Decision-
makers)
Changing utility business models
The New Prosumer
Artificial Intelligence
Sam Insull
Traditional Business Model
Centralized Power
Plants
Transmission and
Distribution
System
Volume Regulated
Monopoly
Centralized
power for
industry
Future Business Models
Services
vs.
Commodity
Broker of
distributed
power
Smaller,
discrete
companies
Energy
storage and
ancillary
service
companies
Future Utility Business Models
Energy Service Utility
Smart Integrator
Power Quality protection
Broker of energy sales
Coordination and Integration
among multiple suppliers and
distributed generation
Future Role of Grid
Moving energy among storage
and demand
The New Prosumer
We produce
more of what we
consume
Building owners
will be both
buyers and
sellers of
electricity
Dynamic pricing
will be key
Computer
interface will
develop as
“decision
maker”
Robotics and Energy
Manufacturing
Service Robots
Domestic Robots
Building construction
New energy loads
Ubiquitous sensing, computing,
automation
SAM
Sentient Appearing Machines
Energy Systems of the Far
Future
Multiple Energy Sources Ubiquitous Sensing
and Computing
Highly Integrated
between buildings,
transportation and
generation sources
Zero Carbon
Complex Prosumer
relationships
Sentient Appearing
buildings and
machines
Utility of the Future
Zero Energy Home
PHEV/BEV Distributed Utility
Fossil Fuels
Solar Wind
Nuclear
Questions