The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality

© 2008 Cisco Systems, Inc. All rights reserved.Pepper-11-2008-1 1

The Evolution of Broadband:From Coverage to Quality

Robert Pepper

Vice President

Global Technology Policy

3 November 2008


Four Stages of National Broadband Discussion

Availability/Coverage (supply) Adoption (demand) “Speed” Quality


Transport IPNetworks

Energy(Power)

Water

Communications: From telephony to connectivity/broadband

Networks: the Fourth Essential Infrastructure


What we all want

Build on the success of the Internet Ubiquitous broadband Faster robust broadband networks New innovative applications Consumer/citizen benefits Investment in networks and applications


Growing Demand


The Consumer in Control and Driving Demand

Entire Internet TrafficEntire Internet Traffic

Only 20 HomesOnly 20 Homes

20102010

“By the year 2010… bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than entire Internet in 1995”“By the year 2010… bandwidth for 20 homes will generate more traffic than entire Internet in 1995”

19951995

Source: Cisco estimates, Ovum, Gartner, IDC, Merrill Lynch, MRG, MPA, Public company data


41% CAGR 2007-2012

Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index – Forecast, 2007-2012

Impact of Video on Internet Traffic GROWTH OF GLOBAL CONSUMER INTERNET TRAFFIC MIX

0

10,000

20,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

PB

/mo

nth

Internet Video to TV

Internet Video to PC

VoIP

Video Communications

Gaming

P2P

Web/Data


294.0Gbps(2007.11)

199.4Gbps (2007.11)

269.4Gbps (2004.9)

303.2Gbps (2004.10)

323.6Gbps (2004.11)

721.7Gbps (2007.5)

636.6Gbps (2006.11)

523.6Gbps (2006.5)

468.0Gbps (2005.11)

424.5Gbps (2005.5)

812.9Gbps(2007.11)

339.8Gbps(2007.11)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

[Gbps]

Efforts for Grasping Current Status of Internet Traffic in Japan , MIC

Est. download traffic of broadband users in Japan

Monthly average of daily traffic of Broadband customers (ADSL/CATV/FTTH) of major ISPs in Japan

(ref.1) Monthly average of daily peak traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan

(ref.2) Monthly average of daily traffic exchanged at major IXs in Japan

IP traffic in Japan grew 2.5 times in 3 years to estimated 812.9Gbps in Nov 2007


Heavy Users Dominate Traffic


Traffic Consumption Among Residential Broadband Users -- 10,000-fold variation

Source : http://www.iepg.org/march2005/kjc-iepg200503.pdf

1%

5%

20%

50%

1 TB/Mo

Avg = 8GB/Mo = 25Kbit/sec

1% => 225+ GB/Month

5% => 60+ GB/Month

20% => 7,5+ GB/Month

50% => 1+ GB/Month

1% => 225+ GB/Month

5% => 60+ GB/Month

20% => 7,5+ GB/Month

50% => 1+ GB/Month

90% Users are under the Avg


Dimensions of Broadband:Quality Matters


Dimensions of Broadband

Bandwidth—”speed” Latency Jitter Symmetry Bursting Other…


Not All Bits Are Created Equal“Speed” and Latency

Bandwidth

Low

High

HighLow

TelepresenceVoice

HD-IPTV

Sensitiveto Latency

StreamingAudio

Gaming(LD)

Gaming(HD)

Email

DownloadVideo

StreamingVideo


2000 2005 2010 2015

Changing Requirements for Quality B

road

ban

d Q

ual

ity

TWO WAVES OF BROADBAND SERVICES

Source: California Broadband Task Force, Jan 2008; Cisco IBSG; Expert interviews; Oxford Team analysis, Aug 2008

Social networking LD video streaming Basic video chatting Small file sharing SD IPTV

Visual networking HD video streaming Consumer telepresence Large file sharing HD IPTV

Requirements Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms

Requirements• Download 11.25Mbps• Upload 5Mbps• Latency 60ms

Today

Tomorrow


Broadband Quality Score (BQS)

BQS is calculated based on normalized values of:

Download and Upload throughput, and Latency About 8million records sourced from actual tests from

Speedtest.net (Ookla) during May 2008

Weights assigned to each factor for today’s and tomorrow’s (3 to 5 years) applications.

BQS (today) = 55% Download + 23% Upload + 22%Latency

BQS (tmrw) = 45% Download + 32% Upload + 23%Latency

Source: University of Oviedo; Delphi interviews; Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008

BQS CALCULATION

BQS threshold: 32 Download 3.75 Mbps Upload 1 Mbps Latency 95ms

BQS threshold: 75 Download 11.25Mbps Upload 5Mbps Latency 60ms


Country Broadband Quality Scores

Source: Speed Test database, Expert Interviews, BQS Team Analysis, Aug 2008

Today’s applicationsBQS threshold: 32

Tomorrow’s applicationsBQS threshold: 75

BROADBAND QUALITY SCORE BY COUNTRY

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100BQI


Impact of Quality and Penetration

MAIN FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH BROADBAND QUALITY AND PENETRATION

Source: Speed Test database; University of Oviedo and Oxford University Team Analysis, Aug 2008

* based on limited sample of ComScore data

HIGHPENETRATION

HIGHQUALITY

• ICT Diffusion• Knowledge

Economy• Web Usage*

• Education• Fibre and

upgraded cable

• Innovation• Labour

Productivity• Competitiveness

• GDP/Capita• Technology

Diversity• PCs/Capita

DRIVING FACTORS

IMPACT ONBROADBAND

SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACT


The Evolution of Broadband from Coverage to Quality

Technology

evolution of broadband

mbps latency

latency source

mbps upload

broadband socioeconomic

residential broadband

impact of quality

latency bqs tmrw