Geddes/PNSol - Broadband market evolution

Broadband Market Evolution & Measurement Capability Development

Dr Neil Davies Predictable Network Solutions Ltd

Peter Thompson Predictable Network Solutions Ltd

Martin Geddes

Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd

© 2012 All Rights Reserved

PREDICTABLE

NETWORK

SOLUTIONS

Dr Neil Davies Co-founder, Predictable Network Solutions Ltd

Ex: University of Bristol (23 years).

Former technical head of joint university/research institute (SRF/PACT).

Peter Thompson CTO, Predictable Network Solutions Ltd

Ex: GoS Networks, U4EA, SGS-Thomson, INMOS & Universities of Bristol, Warwick and Cambridge.

Authority on technical and commercial issues of converged networking.

Martin Geddes Founder, Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd

Ex: BT, Telco 2.0, Sprint, Oracle, Oxford University.

Thought leader on future of telecommunications industry.

PREDICTABLE

NETWORK SOLUTIONS

Dr Neil Davies Co-founder, Predictable Network Solutions Ltd

Ex: University of Bristol (23 years).

Former technical head of joint university/research institute (SRF/PACT).

Peter Thompson CTO, Predictable Network Solutions Ltd

Ex: GoS Networks, U4EA, SGS-Thomson, INMOS & Universities of Bristol, Warwick and Cambridge.

Authority on technical and commercial issues of converged networking.

Martin Geddes Founder, Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd

Ex: BT, Telco 2.0, Sprint, Oracle, Oxford University.

Thought leader on future of telecommunications industry.

PREDICTABLE NETWORK

SOLUTIONS

The only ex-ante network performance engineering company in the world.

• New mathematical performance techniques.

• Performance assessment methodology.

• World’s first network contention management solution.

Consultancy on the future of telecoms and the Internet.

• Business model innovation.

• Technology & product ideation.

• Organisation development.

• Public & private workshops.

Dial-up ISP

1

2

3

Broadband market evolution

The broadband market is maturing.

Horse & carriage

1

2

3

Car market evolution

Other markets have gone

through similar phases of maturity.

1

1970s car adverts

emphasised speed.

(Embedded video – click here to view directly.)

The metric of top speed

was easy to define.

2

Then we saw consumer

choice move towards safety.

We developed new crash

test metrics.

3

Today, fuel economy tends to be high up

the list of priorities in

buyers’ minds.

Now we look at grammes of CO2/km.

Dial-up ISP

Broadband market evolution

Let’s look how the broadband

market is maturing

through similar phases.

Dial-up ISP

1

Stage 1: Coverage

At first, everything was

about coverage.

1 Can you get the service in your

location?

Dial-up ISP

1

Increased usage, so rising demand for…

Faster!

Dial-up ISP

1

2

Stage 2: Capacity

Adverts today emphasise

speed.

2

Speed, speed, speed.

Dial-up ISP

1

2

Better! New applications & services, so rising demand for…

Dial-up ISP

1

2

3

Stage 3: Capability

Capability 3

“Fit-for-purpose

broadband”

3

Megabits per second are easy to measure.

But how do you measure capability?

Today’s market offers don’t give you any of the

right clues.

Unfit-for-purpose

“Circle of Death”

Too many of these, and the service is regarded as

unacceptable by the user.

QoE Aspirations

Network Expectations

time to first frame, contiguous playback

audio/video quality, lack of glitches, interactivity (text, screen share)

loss delay ?

Every application has performance

needs.

These always map onto a statistical

bound on loss and delay.

A Recent Bad Skype Experience

20M/2M Cable broadband 10M/1M ADSL Business LLU

1.8M/448k ADSL – wholesale 20CN

Loss: <0.5%. Delay (one-way): 50ms-60ms, jumping

to 500ms for a second or two, then back

Loss: Wandering from a typical 0%-2% up to as high as 48% for a second or two.

Delay: 50-70ms

Loss: 0.1%. Delay: 40ms-50ms

We did a 3-way Skype call to demonstrate

the fitness-for-purpose issue.

We measured the network

loss and delay characteristics.

Different speeds & characteristics

VERY FAST

& VARIABLE DELAY

FAST

& VARIABLE LOSS

SLOW & STATIONARY LOSS/DELAY

Good Experience

Bad Experience Bad Experience

Summary: Speed is not the only difference

Bad Skype QoE

SPEED

VA

RIA

BIL

IT

Y

SLOW FAST

LOW

HIGH

Another factor was affecting

outcomes.

Cable Broadband: High speed, just as advertised

Cable user happens to be on SamKnows network measuring

service.

Figures show the average throughput

is as claimed.

Cable Broadband: SamKnows reported AVERAGE delays

Are these statistics averaged over hourly

periods telling the whole story?

Averages hide essential detail

14.49 21.68

14.51

42.63

86.62

13.79

0

20

40

60

80

100

07-May 09-May 11-May 13-May 15-May

De

lay

(ms)

Day

Average Delay (by Day)

Rep

ort

ed b

y Sa

mK

no

ws

133.06

720.28

169.71

668.74

0

200

400

600

800

00:00 04:00 08:00 12:00 16:00 20:00 00:00

De

lay

(ms)

9th May

Average Delay (by Hour)

Rep

ort

ed b

y Sa

mK

no

ws

0

200

400

600

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

De

lay

(ms)

Per second during call

Delay (during call – afternoon of 9th)

Dir

ectl

y m

easu

red

Delay varying too fast for Skype to

compensate

Quality of Experience: Depends on multiple characteristics

SPEED

STA

TIO

NA

RIT

Y

SLOW FAST

LOW

Fastest connection had the WORST Skype experience

HIGH

Determines the chance that applications can adapt to the network

Determines which applications are feasible

Most stationary connection had the BEST Skype experience

Stationarity is the inverse of variability

What does

this network property enable?

STATIONARITY

The application

Hierarchy of Need

3. Reasonable bounds on loss and delay

2. Sufficient stationarity

1. Sufficient capacity

Note: exact requirements are application-dependent

We need to evolve our metrics to capture a richer set of capabilities that contribute to

fitness-for-purpose.

So what?

• Measurement is de-facto regulation

– If your measurements are partial, your regulation is partial, and users receive a partial service!

• Need a market framework for

quantity and quality

– Measure all network properties that impact application QoE

– Encourage broadband service providers to offer a variety of trades between peak bandwidth and stationarity.

What next for regulators?

• Internal education

– Dispel the bandwidth myth

– Raise capability to reason on network quality management

• Measure and report stationarity

– Allow service providers to compete on more than just (peak) bandwidth

• Engage stakeholders in a dialogue on quality

– Raise external awareness and provide forum for collective industry progress

Dangerous myth: More Speed is Always Better

SPEED

STA

TIO

NA

RIT

Y

SLOW FAST

LOW

HIGH

www.martingeddes.com

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Neil Davies [email protected]

Peter Thompson [email protected]

Martin Geddes [email protected]

PREDICTABLE

NETWORK

SOLUTIONS