The European Energy Market and beyond: is green growth still an option? 1 October 5th ,2012
Dec 26, 2015
The European Energy Market and beyond: is green growth still an option?
1
October 5th ,2012
2
Gas Natural Fenosa Group
Gas distribution 2,000 MW CCC
Mexico
Telecommunications Guatemala
Electricity
Distribution
Nicaragua
50 MW hydro
Costa Rica
Electricity distribution and 30 MW hydro and fuel
Panama
Gas and electricity
distribution
Colombia
Gas distribution
Argentina
Gas distributionBrazil
200 MW fuel-gas
Dominican Republic 250 MW c.cycle
+ regasification
Puerto Rico SpainGas and electricitysales
Portugal
Gas Sales
France
Gas sales and distribution,
regasification projects
Italy
Electricity distribution
Moldova
Gas liquefaction
Egypt
Participation in
liquefaction plant
Oman
110 MW (fueloil+gas)
Kenya
Integrated project
AngolaCoal mining
South Africa
Wind power projects
Australia
Gas transport
Morocco
Gas Sales
Luxembourg
Gas Sales
Belgium
Gas and electricity distribution and sales, 7,000 MW CCC, 1,900 MW hydro, 600 MW nuclear, 2,000 MWcoal, 150 MW fuel-gas, 1,100 MW specialregime, regasification, upstream.
Energy sales
Holland
3
EU Energy Policy: Three pillars
Are the three pillars balanced?
?
4
EU Energy Policy: What has been achieved in the EU?
Efforts are concentrated in the electricity sector
Source: CEER Report on Renewable Energy Support in Europe, May 2011
Economic Impact of RES in the EU
6
Economic Impact of RES: The Spanish case (I)Renewable support schemes
7
2005 2010 Increase %Incr.
Spanish RES support (M€) 1.246 7.134 5.888 M 473%
Economic Impact of RES : The Spanish case (II)Electricity system costs evolution
2020 ForecastSystem costs
M€
8
More than an economic impact:Integration of RES in the system
The intermittency and lack of firmness of renewable production requires high flexibility like the provided by the CCGTs
The progressive penetration of RES in the generation mix increases the need for this support or back-up
27 August 2009 9 November 2010
Combined Cycles
(CCGTs)
Wind PowerMW
h
More than an economic impact (II):Integration of RES in the system
9
By taking the 50 cases with higher and lower wind coverage is confirmed that the combined cycle is the technology that supports the major variability
10
Competiviness is a global thing. What about RES?
Source: IFIEC Europe 11/2012Source: IFIEC Europe 11/2012
*Based on 2009 new added capacity
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Total Europe Australia Brazil Canada China India USA Rest of theworld
193 GW
-19 yrs
360 GW
-234 yrs
32 GW
-25 yrs
199 GW
-14 yrs
30 GW
-31 yrs
17 GW
-64 yrs
2020
16%
*2.5GW
-6 Yrs 158
GW-
103 Yrs
47GW
-4.7 Yrs
9GW
-7 Yrs
60GW
-4.5 Yrs
10GW
-10.5 Yrs
10GW
-38 Yrs
10 GW
-25 yrs
Level to achieve for a fair level playing field
**
Wind Target EU27
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Total Europe Australia Brazil Canada China India USA Rest of theworld
193 GW
-19 yrs
360 GW
-234 yrs
32 GW
-25 yrs
199 GW
-14 yrs
30 GW
-31 yrs
17 GW
-64 yrs
2020
16%
*2.5GW
-6 Yrs 158
GW-
103 Yrs
47GW
-4.7 Yrs
9GW
-7 Yrs
60GW
-4.5 Yrs
10GW
-10.5 Yrs
10GW
-38 Yrs
10 GW
-25 yrs
Level to achieve for a fair level playing field
**
Wind Target EU27
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
Total Europe Australia Brazil Canada China India USA Rest of theworld
193 GW
-19 yrs
360 GW
-234 yrs
32 GW
-25 yrs
199 GW
-14 yrs
30 GW
-31 yrs
17 GW
-64 yrs
2020
16%
*2.5GW
-6 Yrs 158
GW-
103 Yrs
47GW
-4.7 Yrs
9GW
-7 Yrs
60GW
-4.5 Yrs
10GW
-10.5 Yrs
10GW
-38 Yrs
10 GW
-25 yrs
Level to achieve for a fair level playing field
**193 GW
-19 yrs
360 GW
-234 yrs
32 GW
-25 yrs
199 GW
-14 yrs
30 GW
-31 yrs
17 GW
-64 yrs
2020
16%
*2.5GW
-6 Yrs 158
GW-
103 Yrs
47GW
-4.7 Yrs
9GW
-7 Yrs
60GW
-4.5 Yrs
10GW
-10.5 Yrs
10GW
-38 Yrs
10 GW
-25 yrs
Level to achieve for a fair level playing field
**
Wind Target EU27
**Based on 2009 country electricity consumption and 2009 new added capacity
Source GWEC; EEA; IEA
Sh
are
of
WIN
D g
en
era
tio
n i
n t
ota
l e
lec
tric
ity
co
ns
um
pti
on
***
2010
***Based on and 21% average load factor in EU
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Competiviness is a global thing. What about RES?
The EU contributes so little...
Source: Ignacio Perez Arriaga. Economic for Energy Workshop 2012 Source: Ignacio Perez Arriaga. Economic for Energy Workshop 2012
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Natural gas can be a reliable alternativeUSA: Henry hub. Shale gas influence
Fuente: EC – JRC Jul 2012
Shale gas production has a growing impact on electricity generation
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Conclusions
1. Climate Change is a big challenge. The electricity
sector leads the transformation
2. RES have a strong impact on costs & to be integrated
3. A competitive energy sector is key for the growth of the
economy
4. Gas is a secure, environment-friendly and reliable
alternative