TheEU pigmeat market Currentsituationandfutureprospects Judit KROMMER European Commission, DG AGRI Rakvere, 22 November 2019
The EU pigmeat market
Current situation and futureprospects
Judit KROMMER
European Commission, DG AGRIRakvere, 22 November 2019
Some key figures of EU pig production
▪ Pig population: 148 million pigs (2018)
▪ Production: 23.8 million tonnes carcass weight of
pigmeat (2018)
▪ Self sufficiency: 112%.
▪ Exports: 2.3 million tonnes carcass weight (11% of EU
pigmeat production), processed products and offals
excluded.
EU PIG SECTOR KEY FIGURES
EU PIG SECTOR KEY FIGURES
The importance of the EU pig sector
▪ Pigmeat represents 50% of total EU meat production.
▪ Pigmeat is the most exported out of all the meats produced
in the EU. Pigmeat exports represent 58% of EU total meat
exports (2017 data).
EU: an important player in the globalpork market
WORLD
P I G PRODUCERS
EUROPEAN UNION
P I G M A R K E T
EU MEMBER STATES
main producers
EUROPEAN UNION
P I G M A R K E T
EU MEMBER STATES
main producers
EUROPEAN UNION
P I G M A R K E T
EU MEMBER STATES
main producers
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
W O R L D
P I G M A R K E T
E X P O R T S
PIG MAIN EXPORTERS
E U
E U
Uni
ted
States
Uni
ted
States
Ca
na
da
Ca
na
da
Bra
zil B
razil
China
+ H
.Kon
g
China
+ H
.Kon
g
Ch
ile C
hi
leMex
ico (u
p to
Aug
)
Mex
ico (u
p to
Aug
)
Rus
sia (u
p to
Aug
)
Rus
sia (u
p to
Aug
)
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500
0
Qty in
100
0To
nnes
Main Exporters of PIG Products (up to September).
2018 (up to September).
Source : GTA
2019 (up to September).
Excl. Live animals
DG
AG
RI
G3
21 N
ovem
ber
2019
W O
R L
D
P I
GM
A R
K E
T
I M P
O R
TS
PIG
MA
INIM
PO
RT
ER
S
China + H.Kong
China+H.Kong
Japan
Mexico (up toAug)
SouthKorea
United States
Philippines (up to Aug)
Canada
Australia
Japan
Mexico (up to Aug)
SouthKorea
United States
Philippines (up to Aug)
Canada
Australia
0 500
10
00
15
00
20
00
25
00
Qty in 1000Tonnes
Ma
inIm
po
rte
rs
of
PIG
Pro
du
cts
(up
toS
ep
tem
be
r).
30
00
20
18
(up
toS
ep
tem
be
r).
So
urc
e :
GT
A
20
19
(up
toS
ep
tem
be
r).
Ex
cl. L
ive
an
ima
ls
W O R L D
P I G M A R K E T
PIG PRICES
EU, BR, CAN, US
50
70
190
170
150
130
110
90
210
World weekly average Pig prices 2016 -2019 in Euro/ 100kg carcase
(EU, Brazil, Canada andUSA)
EU BR US CAN
EU = weighted average of MS prices for classes S (64.12%) and E(35.88%).
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
US = weekly USDA national weighted average carcassprices
(https://mpr.datamart.ams.usda.gov/amsdashboard/swine/Swine_Dashboard_Option_1.html)
BR = average of Valor Vista prices in main producing states (cepea.esalq.usp.br/br/indicador/suino.aspx)
CAN = Quebec Index 100 Hogs Weighted Average prices (agr.gc.ca)
141.72 84.80 117.26185.80
Current EU pig market situation
P I G P R I C E S EU E V O L U T I O NE
UP
rice
s
EUPrices Evolution since lastweek
185.8Average
(S-E)+0.4%
+0.5%Class S 186.5
184.5Class E +0.4%
57.9Piglet +2.8%€/head
€/100
kg
ca
rc
as
sw
eig
ht
Evolution since last
month
Evolution sincelast
year
+0.8%
+0.8%
+0.9%
+9.3%
+36.2%
+36.2%
+36.0%
+63.7%
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
46
P R I C E S
C A R C A S ES
E U E V O L U T I O N
AVERAGE CLASSES S & E
115
130
145
160
evolution of the EU pig carcass prices (average class E & S)
Average (14 -18) 2018 2019
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
Week 46 latest price ==> 185.80 EUR/100 kg/cw
190Evolution compared same period last year : + 36.2%
175
P R I C E S
C A R C A S ESEU E V O L U T I O N
O ct-2018 O ct-2019 O ct-2018 O ct-2019
EL
CY
BG
SI
RO
PT
HU
DE
AT
SK
HR
DK
FR
CZ 1
LV
ES
IE
PL
UK
LT
NL 0
EE 0
SE
FI
BE
EU
Oct-2018 Oct-2019
172.50 207.96
185.91 202.25
172.30 199.07
153.39 194.84
146.04 193.04
157.87 192.13
144.31 192.02
141.48 190.32
143.38 188.77
145.74 188.40
144.19 185.68
126.89 183.46
131.35 181.00
138.60 179.82
143.00 179.71
136.13 179.54
139.97 178.62
134.73 178.17
165.23 178.16
135.71 174.24
121.62 172.43
148.28 170.47
164.12 168.05
163.28 165.58
104.47 154.82
1 3 8 . 0 8 1 8 2 . 7 4
Classe E Classe S Classe R
IT 198.04 212.90
LV 115.55 17 9.36
SK 128.02 17 7.46
ES 141.16 168.64
DE 114.55 160.31
LT 125.89 158.83
FI 138.92 134.06
UK 125.83 121.55
DK 97.59
EU 165 .86 207.54
SI 162. 05
209.93
EL 172.50 207.96
AT 155 .22 200. 17
HU 14 8.41 194 .92
DE 144.39 193 .75
SK 14 7.84 193 .19
RO 14 9.26 193 .08
PT 156 .77 192 .90
DK 132.24 19 0.50
FR 139.35 18 9.19
HR 14 6.85 185.79
CZ 142.53 184.92
ES 140.19 181.34
UK 168.2 181.28
PL 137.29 181.08
IE 140.09 179.02
EE 154 .64 177.12
LT 139.43 176.75
LV 140.19 176.21
NL 122.76 173.28
SE 168.1 171.50
FI 168.6 170.52
BE 111.67 162.37
EU 14 0 .21 18 5 .06
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
P R I C E S
P I G L E T SEU E V O L U T I O N
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
65
evolution of the EU average piglet prices
(€/head)
Average (14 - 18) Piglet - 2018 Piglet - 2019
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
Week 46 latest price ==> 57.90EUR/head
Evolution compared same period last year : + 63.7%
P R O D U C T I O N
11
.6%
10
.0%
8.2
%
5.5
% 5.2
%
4.5
%
3.8
% 3.6
%
3.1
%
1.1
%
0.5
%
0.0
%
- 0.4
%
- 0.5
%
- 0.8
%
- 1.4
%
- 1.5
%
- 2.0
%
- 2.0
%
- 2.1
%
- 2.3
%
- 3.4
%
- 4.6
%
- 5.2
%
- 5.8
%
- 6.6
%
- 9.2
%
- 9.3
%
- 1.5
%
-20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
LT BG SK NL HR EE LV SI IT ES CY UK FR IE CZ PT FI LU SE AT HU DEBE MT PL DK ELRO EU
Change in Pig Slaughter ('000 Heads)
2019/2018 (up toAugust)
Source:Eurostat
% E V O L U T I O N
IN HEADS
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
P R O D U C T I O N
11
.6%
9.9
%
8.6
%
7.2
% 6.7
% 6.7
%
6.1
%
4.5
%
1.6
% 1.6
%
0.7
% 0.3
% 0.1
%
0.0
%
- 0.4
%
- 0.7
%
- 0.9
%
- 0.9
%
- 1.1
%
- 1.7
%
- 2.2
%
- 2.8
%
- 3.0
%
- 3.1
%
- 4.4
%
- 4.4
%
- 5.4
%
- 6.2
%
- 0.9
%
LT SK BG NL LV HR SI EE ES UK CY HU FR FI MT IE PT CZ LU IT AT SE DE BE EL PL RODK EU
Change in Pig Slaughter ('000tonnes)
2019/2018 (up toAugust)
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
-10%
-15%
Source:Eurostat
-20%
% E V O L U T I O N
IN TONNES
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
PRODUCTION EU E V O L U T I O N
T O T A L P I G
Real Slaughter
2017 vs. 2016 2018 vs. 2017 2019 vs. 2018Expe rts 2019
vs.
Expe rts 2 018
Expe rts 2020
vs.
Expe rts 2 019
GIP 2 02 0
vs.
GIP 2 019
Q1 -1.0% +2.2% -1.1% +0.8% +0.5% -1.4%
Q2 -3.3% +2.6% -2.0% -1.6% +1.4% -2.1%
Q3 -0.8% +0.5% -0.5% +0.1%
Q4 +0.0% +1.2% -0.4% +0.2%
Full year -1.3% +1.6% -0.4% +0.5%
2017 vs.2016 2018 vs.2017 2019 vs.2018 Experts2019
vs.
Experts2018
Experts2020
vs.
Experts2019
GIP2020
vs.
GIP2019
Change in EUpigmeat slaughter(2019Q3-2020Q4forecastbasedonGIPandexpertsestimations) ('000 heads)
+5%
+3%
+1%
-1%
-3%
-5%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Full year
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
The importance of the EU pig exports
EU
trad
e o
f PIG
pro
du
cts
DG
AG
RI
G3
21 N
ovem
ber
2019
T R
A D
EE
UT
R A
DE
BA
LA
NC
E
46135
59720
71937
51641
63800
55918
56077
54499
72276
22612
21730
32368
43179
59838
51789
44193
37655
36967
34487
35245
33064
32788
36384
33566
27114
881 011
943 405
1 083 230
1 238 138
1 556961
1 545907
1 331808
1 526563
1 509302
1 780568
1 938455
2 089363
1 910908
2 569 087
2 386 245
2 627 630
3 246486
3 247956
3 242414
3 036539
3 370 209
4 159093
3 848961
3 869605
3 363897
4 5
00
00
0
4 2
50
00
0
4 0
00
00
0
3 7
50
00
0
3 5
00
00
0
3 2
50
00
0
3 0
00
00
0
2 7
50
00
0
2 5
00
00
0
2 2
50
00
0
2 0
00
00
0
1 7
50
00
0
1 5
00
00
0
1 2
50
00
0
1 0
00
00
0
75
00
00
50
00
00
25
00
00
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan-Sep19
Tonnes carcaseweight
EU
Tra
de o
f PIG
pro
du
cts
IMP
OR
TS
EX
PO
RT
S
EU imports of selected PIGproductsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcassweight)
T R A D E EU I M P O R T S
P i g P r o d u c t s
IMPORT
2015 2016 2017 2018 Jan-Sep 19 Compared
tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % tonnes % to Jan-Sep 18
Switzerland 20 225 61% 22 257 68% 22 922 63% 19 430 58% 13184 49% -13%
Serbia 1 819 6% 614 2% 2 694 7% 3 618 11% 3 605 13% 45%
Norway 2 315 7% 1 989 6% 2 303 6% 2 702 8% 3 440 13% 62%
Chile 2 896 9% 2 958 9% 2 434 7% 2 664 8% 2 501 9% 15%
USA 1 769 5% 1 711 5% 1 707 5% 1 566 5% 1 400 5% 10%
China 378 1% 250 1% 1 315 4% 841 3% 349 1% -46%
Other 3 663 11% 3 010 9% 3 010 8% 2 745 8% 2 635 10%
Extra-EU 33 064 32 788 36 384 33 566 27114
% change - 1% + 11% - 8% + 4.7%
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
EUimports of selected PIG productsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcassweight)
1689915129
13184
2183
2125
2478
2501
3440
3556
18411864
33414035
26610 2590427114
0
5000
10000
3605 15000
20000
25000
30000
Jan-Sep17 Jan-Sep18 Jan-Sep19
50.948.1 47.6
15.513.3 12.9
6 7 6.7
8 8 7.8
7.0 10.1
14.8 11.49.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan-Sep17 Jan-Sep18 Jan-Sep19
T R A D E EU I M P O R T S
P i g P r o d u c t s
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
Germany
892
23%
Denmark
586
15%
Netherlands
480
12%
Poland
253
6%
France
232
6%
Others
628
16%
EU MAIN EXPORTERS
(1 000 TONNES - 2018 DATA)
Germany SpainSpain 1.380 1.719870 19% 24%22%
Denmark
1.254
17%
Netherlands
825
11%
Poland
359
5%
France
401
6%
Others
1.336
18%
EU MAIN EXPORTERS
(MILLIONS EUROS - 2018 DATA)
T R A D E EU MAIN
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
EXPORTERS
China
1358
34%
Japan
455
12%
SouthKorea
345
9%
Philippines
289
7%HongKong
232
6%
USA
170
4%
Others
1 089
28%
EU PIGMEAT EXPORTDESTIINATIONS
(1 000 TONNES - 2018DATA)
China
1830
25%Japan
1368
19%
SouthKorea
806
11%
Philippines
301
Hong Kong4%
382
5%USA
565
8%
Others
2 022
28%
EU PIGMEAT EXPORT DESTIINATIONS
(MILLIONS EUROS - 2018 DATA)
T R A D E EU PIGMEAT EXPORTDESTINATIONS
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
EU exports of selected PIGproducts:Trade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcassweight)
2015
tonnes %
2016
tonnes %
2017
tonnes %
2018
tonnes %
Jan-Sep 19 Comparedto
Jan-Sep 18tonnes %
China 1 141 484 33.9% 1 866 110 44.9% 1 406 733 36.5% 1 353 489 35.0% 1 547 752 46.0% + 55%
Japan 364745 10.8% 405311 9.7% 425761 11.1% 433429 11.2% 365430 10.9% +7%
South Korea 241569 7.2% 260593 6.3% 276136 7.2% 335126 8.7% 208440 6.2% -15%
Philippines 191891 5.7% 216514 5.2% 251492 6.5% 284044 7.3% 198043 5.9% -9%
Hong Kong 292651 8.7% 363251 8.7% 383948 10.0% 231825 6.0% 150194 4.5% -16%
USA 105123 3.1% 116806 2.8% 155461 4.0% 165460 4.3% 105954 3.1% -19%
Australia 102645 3.0% 101174 2.4% 95351 2.5% 96870 2.5% 86710 2.6% + 24%
Vietnam 38290 1.1% 53483 1.3% 41637 1.1% 86357 2.2% 75317 2.2% + 28%
Ukraine 96619 2.9% 75547 1.8% 86944 2.3% 107065 2.8% 69798 2.1% -12%
Taiwan 53701 1.6% 47825 1.1% 64443 1.7% 55537 1.4% 44542 1.3% +3%
Serbia 47488 1.4% 41151 1.0% 54924 1.4% 65583 1.7% 37348 1.1% -28%
Ivory Coast 50240 1.5% 36825 0.9% 41475 1.1% 52288 1.4% 36116 1.1% +6%
Other 643762 19.1% 574504 13.8% 564656 14.7% 602533 15.6% 438252 13.0%
Extra-EU 3 370 209 4 159 093 3 848 961 3 869 605 3 363 897
% change + 23% - 7% + 1% + 16.2%
T R A D E E U E X P O R T S
P i g P r o d u c t s
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
EU exports of selected PIGproductsTrade figures (COMEXT – tonnes carcass weight)
3 363897
2872904 2 894211894037
828548 909342 150194198043
274535 178012 208440365430191736 217137
205903 246414
1 547752
334719 342046
1 037463 1 001261
0
500000
1 000000
1 500000
2 000000
2 500000
3 000000
3 500000
Jan-Sep17 Jan-Sep18 Jan-Sep19
Tons(cw).
4 000000
1539 1314
2643
10761036
1174224575
235534
493230552
289
21919051882
1915
57965321
6721
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Jan-Sep17 Jan-Sep18 Jan-Sep19
inM
illi
on
sE
UR
T R A D E EU E X P O R T S
P i g P r o d u c t s
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
450 000
400 000
350 000
300 000
250 000
200 000
150 000
100 000
50 000
0|
Jan 172017 |
Jan 182018 |
Jan 192019
in Tonnes
(carcase weight)EU Exports of selected PIG
T R A D E EU E X P O R T S
P i g P r o d u c t s
DG AGRI G3 21 November 2019
The current challenges for the EU pigexports
ASF REGIONALISATION
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