« Biofuels » (Enlarged Advisory Group on Pigmeat, 1st April 2011) Andreas Pilzecker, European Commission (Directorate-General for Agriculture, Unit H4)

« Biofuels » (Enlarged Advisory Group on Pigmeat,

1st April 2011)

Andreas Pilzecker, European Commission (Directorate-General for

Agriculture, Unit H4)

Renewable Energy Directive

• Sets mandatory targets: 20% RE share (10% RE in transport), but no specific targets for bioenergy and biofuels

Objectives

“The increased use of energy from renewable sources is needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and has an important part to play in promoting the security of energy supply, promoting technological development and innovation and providing opportunities for employment and regional development, especially in rural and isolated areas.”

Agricultural activities related to the renewable energy sector generate a grossvalue added of well over €9 bn per year.

DG Agriculture (2010)

What Impacts on Agriculture?

Sources

• DG Agriculture: “Prospects for agricultural markets 2010-2020” http://ec.europa.eu/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects2010/index_en.htm

• Joint Research Centre – IPTS: “Impacts of the EU biofuel target on agricultural markets and land use: a comparative modelling assessment” http://ipts.jrc.ec.europa.eu/publications/pub.cfm?id=3439

EU Biofuels market, 2009–2020 (billion litres)

    2009 2010 2020

Usable production 15.3 15.9 34.2

of which Ethanol 5.7 6.1 17.2

of which 2nd generation 0.0 0.0 3.0

Biodiesel 9.6 9.8 17.1

of which 2nd generation 0.0 0.0 4.0

Consumption 17.1 18.8 42.7

Ethanol 7.1 7.8 21.8

Biodiesel 10.0 11.1 20.9

Net trade   -1.9 -2.9 -8.4

EU cereal market projections, 2009-2020 (mio t)

    2009 2010 2020

Usable production 294.7 280.7 312.9

Consumption 279.5 277.9 300.9

of which bioenergy 7.8 8.7 26.4

% 3% 3% 8%

EU vegetable oils market projections, 2009-2020 (mio t)

    2009 2010 2020

Usable production 14.2 14.1 16.5

Consumption 23.5 23.8 27.3

of which bioenergy 8.9 9.1 12.1

JRC-IPTS• Analyses and discusses the global impacts of the RE

target for transport on agricultural production, markets and land use, as simulated by three agricultural sector models, AGLINK-COSIMO, ESIM and CAPRI.

• The impacts identified include higher EU production of ethanol and biodiesel, and of the crops used to produce them, as well as more imports of both biofuels.

• However, as the extra demand is small in world market terms, the impact on world market prices is limited.

Impact on biodiesel feedstock prices

Impacts on the oilseed complex

• Larger production of oilseeds in the EU and lower crush due to smaller crushing margin contribute to a strong decline in oilseed imports.

• Lower EU crushing is also the result of reduced oil meal demand from the domestic feed market, due to partial replacement by DDG available from higher ethanol production.

Impact on ethanol feedstock prices

Overall impacts on feeding

• With higher EU ethanol production, DDG production is nearly 6 million tonnes higher due to biofuel policies

• The total amount of feed consumed increases marginally but feed use of coarse grains declines by 4.1%.

Impacts on Animal Production

• EU production of animal products is only marginally affected by EU biofuel policies

• Non-ruminant animal production (pork, poultry and eggs) is even slightly higher (by 0.2- 0.4%) in 2020 due to slightly lower feed costs.

ESIM: impact on oilseed complex

• EU prices for the main EU-produced biodiesel inputs (oilseeds, plant oils) increase. The prices of rapeseed and sunflower seed increase by 9.7% and 11.2% respectively, and those of rapeseed oil and sunflower seed oil by just over one-third.

• The prices of rapeseed and sunflower seed meals fall by a third or more.

ESIM: impact on grain prices

• EU prices for ethanol inputs are higher, by 8%, 21% and 22% for soft wheat, sugar and maize respectively.

ESIM: Impacts on feeding• Due to a greater supply of biofuels, the supply of

the by-products gluten feed, rape meal and sunflower seed meal is also higher.

• The prices of feedstuffs are significantly lower, and they partly substitute in livestock rations for maize, maize silage, soybean and sunflower seed, the use of which in animal feed is lower by 13.6%, 0.9%, 6.4% and 8.1%, respectively.

• The use of these fodder substitutes helps to keep the markets for livestock products quite stable: prices change only marginally.

Summary – Global impacts

Summary – EU Impacts

Renewable Energy Directive: Safeguards

1. Member States report on changes in commodity prices and land use (1st report by the end of this year)

2. The Commission monitors the commodity price changes

3. Based on 1. and 2., the Commission reports on the impact on sustainability, considering economic and environmental impacts (in 2012 for the first time)

4. If appropriate, it proposes corrective action