The Energy Report © W i l d W o n d e r s o f E u r o p e / I n a k i R e l a n z o n / W W F Addressing Instability BECCS and climate – Saveguards needed Stephan Singer Stockholm 11 June 2012
Dec 22, 2015
The Energy Report
© W
ild Wonders of E
urope / Inaki Relanzon / W
WF
Addressing InstabilityBECCS and climate –Saveguards needed
Stephan Singer
Stockholm
11 June 2012
The Energy Report
Global fuel CO2 emissions
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Coal Oil Gas
1971
1985
2000
2008
Source: IEA, 2011
Mil
l t
CO
2
April 2011
19 April 2023 - 4
IEA WEO Special Report – The Golden Age of Gas (2011): Global primary gas demand reaches 5.1. tcm in 2035 (+1.8 tcm compared to today and +0.6% tcm revised figure compared to WEO 2010 New Policies Scenario). The share of natural gas in the global energy mix increases from 21% to 25%, overtaking coal by 2030
Projected global fuel demand development in a “Gas Policy Scenario” – coal peaking prior to 2020 (IEA)
IPCC GHG emissions and temperature scenarios until 2100, A1B is one of the central IPCC scenarios (+3 degree by 2100)
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Regional annual temperature change by 2100 compared to 1980- 1999 average under A1B
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Regional seasonal % precipitation change by average 2090-2099 compared to 1980- 1999 average under A1B;left: December to February; right: June to August
Source: IPCC (4AR, 2007)
Marine pH development and change under A1B;
Source: Turkley & Findlay (2009)
Pre-industrial
Surface ocean pH
Present day
Projected for 2100 under SRES A1FI scenario
Atmospheric CO2 and CH4 concentrations over last 800,000 years – triggering sea level rise and decline – Note: today’s CO2 is at 388 ppm, higher than ever in at least 1 mio years
Source: Hansen, Sato (2011);
Once the damage is done…..slow responses of nature resulting from CO2 cuts
Source: IPCC (AR 4, 2007)
Hypothetical 100% cut of GHG emissions do NOT change CO2 concentrations in atmosphere for a long time UNLESS CO2 is removed (Negative Emissions)
Source: Hadley Centre (HadCM3LC model 2009)
The Energy ReportIPCC Emissions/stabilisation scenariosAnd resulting temperature responses
Source: IPCC 2007
..and where we need to stabilise..
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Source: IPCC 2007
Global CO2 budgets for various climate scenarios
Green and yellow pathways
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Source: OPEC Secretariate 2011, BP 2011, IEA 2011, IPCC 2007
The global GHG budget requires to retire about 60% of all known conventional fossil fuel recoverable reserves til 2050 (if CCS is excluded)
Gt CO2e
GAP
2010 - 2050
The Energy ReportRegarding all fossil fuel conventionaland unconventional resources about 95%need to stay untouched, mainly coal
Source: IPCC 2011
Global allowance until 2050
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Recent Science“…A 450 ppm CO2e concentration level is consistent with a probability level of 60% to exceed 2 degree temperature increase at equilibrium …limiting global temperature increase at equilibrium to 2 (1.5) degree above pre-industrial levels with a 66% chance would require stabilisation of atmospheric CO2e from all forcing agents at less than 415 (370) ppm CO2e….ranges of 380 – 420 ppm CO2e for 2 degree and 350 – 375 ppm CO2e for 1.5 degree C….” Rogelij, Meinshausen, Knutti; NATURE climate change; 2012
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Negative emissions1. Up to MINUS 1600 g CO2e/kWh in ‘pure’ biomass
CCS plant and high capture rate2. Compares to PLUS 350 – 1000 g CO2e/kWh in fossil
power systems w/o CCS3. Lower in co-firing with coal/gas4. However, negative emissions benefits from biomass
power need to be compared with low emissions using biomass and replacing fossil fuels in sectors w/o alternative (shipping, aviation). System approach.
5. Amount of land use of biomass power?
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Land use of BECSS1. One 1t CO2 (0.3t C) negative emissions “requires”
about 0.6t dry matter of wood. Yields are about 2 – 10 t/ha/y in various regions and forests.
2. One ton CO2 reduction = 0.06 - 0.3 ha/y 3. One Gt CO2 negative emissions (2% of global CO2e)
requires about 60 – 300 Mha forest land. 4. But there are only about 250-500 Mha available
(ECOFYS, WWF) for global biomass production based on sustainable land use, securing food production, and biodiversity.
The Energy ReportEnergy type distribution until 2050SOURCE: Ecofys Energy Scenario, 2011, www.panda.org
The Energy ReportIssues – competitive uses• RES at about 13% today• Bioenergy about 80% of all RES• Traditional bioenergy in developing countries 2/3 of that,
50% of all logged wood.• Modern bioenergy fast growing (1/3 of land “grab”?)• 2030 targets will contain bioenergies• WWF Vision: from 50 EJ (2000) to max 110 EJ (2050), all
based on sustainable and low GHG sourcing, phasing out traditional bioenergy use
• Non-energy biomass replacing FF with about PLUS 70 EJ (2050)?
• Solid biomass CCS for climate protection?• Reality : 250 – 300 EJ ?
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Needed approaches
• Upscaling of bioenergy policy into new areas, policy interventions, innovations – towards a quantitative bioenergy cap
• Sectoral allocation for biomass, biofuels (aviation, industrial fuels)• Address meat consumption – 4 Gha used• Demand Side approaches, recycling, re-use, countering unlimited
‘bio-plastification’• Bioenergy phase-in/phase out approach (rH2, rCH4) in context of
full electrification• Addressing energy poverty in developing countries• New materials, R & D, 2nd-3rd generation biofuels, algae• Address ILUC in a more holistic, ‘fair’ way• Binding certification/GHG accounting in national contexts
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The Energy ReportScenario summary – Supply
Bioenergy & land-use
Global Land Use Distribution Today
Global temperatures since 65 million years when CO2 conc. was about 1000 + ppm in atmosphere – 3 degree increase equals warming last seen about 30 million years ago
Source: Hansen, Sato (2011);