The Economic Costs of Climate Change in MENA Countries: A Micro-Spatial Analysis FEMISE Team: Prof. Nicolas Péridy (Université du Sud Toulon-Var, LEAD, France) Prof. Ahmed Ghoneim (Cairo University,Egypt) Research Assistants: Dr. Marc Brunetto and Dr. Mohamed Hazem (Université du Sud) FEMISE Program FEM34-03 Femise Annual Conference Marseille 15-16 December 2011
16
Embed
The Economic Costs of Climate Change in MENA Countries: A Micro-Spatial Analysis
The Economic Costs of Climate Change in MENA Countries: A Micro-Spatial Analysis. FEMISE Team: Prof. Nicolas Péridy ( Université du Sud Toulon- Var , LEAD, France) Prof. Ahmed Ghoneim (Cairo University,Egypt ) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
The Economic Costs of Climate Change in MENA Countries: A Micro-Spatial Analysis
FEMISE Team: Prof. Nicolas Péridy (Université du Sud Toulon-Var, LEAD, France)
Prof. Ahmed Ghoneim (Cairo University,Egypt)Research Assistants: Dr. Marc Brunetto and Dr. Mohamed Hazem
(Université du Sud)
FEMISE Program FEM34-03
Femise Annual ConferenceMarseille 15-16 December 2011
1a. MotivationClimate change:
major issue for the world population and thus policy makers. Estimation of global warming: from 1.0°C to 4.5°C by the end of this century (IPPC (2007)).
The last forecasts (PNUE, 2011) are even more alarmists: from 2.5°C to 6.0°C.
Questions about the economic impact of climate changeNew literature (Stern, 2008, Dell and al., 2009, Pindyck,
2010)New data bases at micro-spatial level (TATP, 2009 and G-
Econ 2009) MENA countries are particularly concerned with CC
2a. Stylized facts: Temperature (moving av.)Algeria Egypt
3. Main questions to be addressed Is there any evidence of climate change over
the past decades in MENA countries, notably in terms of temperature and rainfall?
What is the impact of a rise in temperature and a decrease in precipitation on income and growth in these countries?
Which policies can be implemented in order to adapt to global warming?
4a. Methodology: a micro-spatial analysisThe use of micro-spatial databases:
Terrestrial Air Temperature and Precipitation (Matsuura and Willmott 2009); 808 geographical cells for MENA countries for the time period 1900-2088 (88,072 observ.)
G-Econ (Yale University): Gross cell product (GCP) is measured at a 1-degree longitude by 1-degree latitude resolution
Highlighting statistical evidence of climate change in MENA countries:Regression of temperature and precipitations on timeIdentification of structural changes (Chow and Cusum tests)Calculating changes in temperature and precipitations
before and after the structural change
4b. Methodology: a micro-spatial analysisTesting the impact of climate change on the real
economy:On micro-spatial GDP and GDP per capita
With spatial conditional convergence models: Barro regression (Mankiw et al., 1992; Ramajo et al., 2008)
With an extended model at country level which accounts for other control variables (education, innovation, infrastructure, openness, etc…)
itttit
ititit prectempy
Tyy
y
00
0 logloglogloglog
4c. Methodology: a micro-spatial analysisUsing spatial econometrics
Test of the spatial autocorrelation of the residuals (Moran-I-test)
Estimating: spatial lag models: Y=rWy+Xb+ spatial model with autocorrelated residuals:
Y=X+ Avec =lW+u
5a. Results: Global Warming (temperatures)Table 1: Estimation of structural change
Chow statistics Structural parameter est. t-test parameter est. t-testchange before before after after