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8/9/2019 The Dow breaks below 10,000, second half target 8,500
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8/9/2019 The Dow breaks below 10,000, second half target 8,500
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Comex Gold The daily chart shows MOJO drifting lower following the test of $1266.5 on June 21st,which was a test of Junes resistance at $1265.9 where investors booked some profits. A daily closebelow the 21-day simple moving average at $1236.2 indicates risk to the 50-day at $1211.1.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Nymex Crude Oil The daily chart shows declining MOJO with the 21-day simple moving average as
support at $75.62 with my annual pivot and 200-day at $77.05 and $77.21.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
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8/9/2019 The Dow breaks below 10,000, second half target 8,500
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The Euro The daily chart shows declining MOJO after strength reached my quarterly resistance at1.2450 on June 21st. The euro is flip-flopping around its 21-day simple moving average at 1.2211.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Daily Dow:Weekly support is 9,483 with todays pivot at 9,935. The Dow is below the 21-day, 50-dayand 200-day simple moving averages at 10,177, 10,475 and 10,360, and my annual pivot at 10,379.
MOJO is declining on the daily chart. My call remains that the April 26th
high at 11,258 ended the bearmarket rally since March 2009, and starts the second leg of the multi-year bear market. Its still Dow8,500 before Dow 11,500.
Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
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8/9/2019 The Dow breaks below 10,000, second half target 8,500
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Dow back below 10K as Consumer Confidence Plunges - The Conference Boards reading forConsumer Confidence plunged to 52.9 in June from 62.7 in May, as consumers worry about jobsecurity and losing their homes. Keep in mind that the neutral zone for this Consumer Confidencemeasure is 90 to 120, readings in the 50s and 60s reflect a dire situation as measured by the thoughtsof consumers on Main Street, USA.
The S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index for April showed a 3.8% year over year gain for the 20-CityIndex, not surprising give that was the last month of the home buyer tax credits for contracts signed.S&P described the report as not yet showing any signs of a sustained recovery. Keep in mind thathome prices remain close to the levels of the April 2009 lows, and that the index is still 50% abovewhere it was in 1999 / 2000. With stocks below 1999 / 2000 levels the risk for home prices is to do thesame given the potential wave of foreclosures and short sales in the second half of the year.
Just before Memorial Day I wrote about a June Swoon in Housing & Banking in a Forbes.com article.The PHLX Housing Sector Index (HGX) declined 16.6% in June with one day to go and from its Aprilhigh to Tuesdays low is down 32.1%. Year to date HGX is down 11.7%, which to me supports my callthat home prices can decline another 50%.
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8/9/2019 The Dow breaks below 10,000, second half target 8,500
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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.
Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sampleissues of my research.
I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.
