The Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal

The Digital SelfWhen Social Media Gets Personal

NextTechCHM Mountain View, CAMar 2010

John Smart, President, Acceleration Studies [email protected]: accelerating.org/slides.html

Los AngelesNew YorkPalo Alto

AccelerationStudiesFoundationA 501(c)(3) Nonprofit

© 2010 Accelerating.org

Acceleration Studies Foundation: What We Do

▪ We practice evolutionary developmental (“evo devo”) foresight, a model of change that proposes the universe contains both: 1. Contingent and unpredictable evolutionary choices that

we use to create unique, informationally valuable, and creative paths (most of which will fail) and a small set of

2. Convergent and predictable developmental constraints (initial conditions, constancies) which direct certain aspects of our long-range future.

▪ Some developmental trends that may be intrinsic to the future of complex systems on Earth include:– Accelerating intelligence, interdependence and immunity

in our global sociotechnological systems– Increasing technological autonomy, and – Increasing intimacy of the human-machine and physical-

digital interface.




Evolutionary Development (Evo Devo): The ‘Left and Right Hands’ of Universal Change

““Experimentation”Experimentation”Main Actor: Seed (Mostly Nonadapted)Stochastic SearchStrange AttractorsRadiation

Development

‘Right Hand’ of Change

Evolution

‘Left Hand’ of ChangeWell-Explored Phase Space ‘Optimization’New Phase Space ‘Opening’

““Convergent Unification”Convergent Unification”Main Actor: Environment (Global Adaptation) Environmental OptimizationStandard AttractorsHierarchy

““Natural Natural Selection”Selection”Main Actor: Organism (Local Adaptation)Requisite VarietyMixed AttractorsAdaptation

Evo Devo(Intersection)

For more: Evodevouniverse.com/wiki/project

Some change is:•Experimentation (Evo)•Adaptation/Selection (EvoDevo)•Optimizing/Dominating (Devo)

Learn to tell the difference.




The ‘95/5%’ Rule of Thumb:Evolutionary and Developmental Contributions to Change

A few examples:▪ Almost all genes in an organism (eg, 97-8% of Dicty DNA) change often

to create evolutionary variety vs. a special subset (2-3%) which form the developmental toolkit and are highly conserved.

▪ Almost all cells compete for their location in the organism. A very few are fated to a particular location early in development.

▪ Almost all ideas and actions in an organization will not persist. A special few become stable strategies seen in all orgs of that type.

▪ Almost all technology products and services are evolutionary experiments. A special few are destined to become the next big thing.

▪ The vast majority (perhaps 95%) of the events and computation to create or control a complex system (organism, organization, technology, species, society) involve bottom-up, local, evolutionary processes.

▪ A minor yet critical subset (perhaps 5%) comes from top-down, hierarchical, developmental processes.

5% Devo

95% Evo




Are You Accelaware?

Free energy rate density values inhierarchically emergent CAS.

Free Energy Rate Density (Φ)

Substrate (ergs/sec/gm)

Galaxies 0.5Stars 2Planets (Early) 75Ecosystems, Plants 900 (10^2)Animals (hum. body) 20,000 (10^4)Brains (human) 150,000 (10^5) Culture (human) 500,000 (10^5)Modern Engines 10^5 to 10^8Intel 8080 of the 1970's 10^10Pentium II of the 1990's 10^11 Global AI of the 21st C 10^12+

Cosmic Evolution, Eric Chaisson, 2001



World Economic Performance

GDP Per Capita in Western Europe,1000 – 1999 A.D.

The curve is quite smooth on a macroscopic scale.And superexponential.

Note the “knee of the curve” occurs circa 1850, at the Industrial Revolution.

Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD, Angus Maddison, 2007 © 2010 Accelerating.org



Data grows even faster than processing power and storage.All these grow slightly superexponentially, believe it or not.

The Singularity is Near, Ray Kurzweil, 2005The Diverse and Exploding Digital Universe, John Gantz, IDC, 2008

▪ Computer power and storage double every 18-24 months.

▪ Created, captured and replicated data doubles every 14-18 months.

▪ By 2011 we’ll be throwing away half the digital data we generate.

▪ A flood of underused capacity in processing, even more in data.

Developing the algorithms to use all this power, storage, and data is the challenge.For now, humans are by far the best algorithms we’ve got.




The J Curve

First-Order Components are Growth-Limited Hierarchical Substrates (S and B Curves)

Second-Order Hyperbolic Growth Emergence Singularities and a Limit Singularity

Examples: ▪ Sagan’s Cosmic Calendar▪ Chaisson’s FERD (Complexity)▪ Global Economic Performance▪ Sci & Tech Performance Metrics▪ Cultural Adoption of Innovation

Accelerating Socio-Technological Evolution: From Ephemeralization and Stigmergy to the Global Brain, Francis Heylighen, 2007.© 2010 Accelerating.org



As There is a Hype Cycle for Almost Any Technology:

Use “Other People’s Innovation” Wherever You Can.


Cumulative Production/Experience (Not Time)

Cap

aci

ty/I

mp

act

95% of the time, you want to be a second mover / “fast follower”. (Evo)Jump in or buy companies at the trough (Big co. acquisition strategy).

5% of the time, you want to be a first mover / “pioneer”. (Devo)Go early correctly and you’ll get lock-in (Amazon, eBay, Google, Facebook…)

What immature tech

products or services do you want to bet on next?

As a fast follower or a pioneer?

Are you too early

or already too late?

The Well-Timed Strategy, Navarro, 2009; Mastering the Hype Cycle, Fenn & Raskino, 2008



From the Metaverse to Metahumanity:Evolutionary Development of the Web

Web 1.0 Read Mainly (Graphical UI)

Web 2.0 Read/Write/Play (Participatory, Social UI)

Web 3.0 Video (iTV, Geosocial Web, AR, VW, MW)

Web 4.0 Semantic (CI, Cyber/Lobbytwins, Valuecosm)

Web 5.0 Intelligent (Planetization, Global Brain, NUI ‘Tech and Social Singularity’)

We are climbing the hierarchies of the web, via design, use, feedback.

Edge platforms include search (Google, Bing, Wolfram Alpha), telephony (iPhone, Android, Google Voice), static and mobile social networking (Facebook, Foursquare), microblogging (Twitter), conferencing and collaboration environments (Skype, Wave, WebEx, Wikis), video (YouTube, Boxee, P2PTV), games and virtual worlds (XBox Live, Second Life), mirror worlds (Google Earth), avatars (Miis, MyCyberTwin), lifelogging (MyLifeBits), augmented reality (QR codes, Wikitude).

Collectively, these are today more a story of intelligence amplification (IA, ‘Sociotech’) than of artificial intelligence (AI, ‘Infotech’). This is, by far, the largest and most meaningful complexity construction process society has ever engaged in.

Smart, John et. al. 2007. Metaverse Roadmap (to 2025). Metaverseroadmap.org

Web

Metaverse

Metahumanity

Metaverseroadmap.org




Wearable Web: 24/7 Augmented Reality, Collective Intelligence

Wearcam.org’s first-gen‘sousveillance’ cams (2001)

‘Bracelet phone’ concept (Vodafone 2006)

‘Carpal PC’ concept(Metaverse Roadmap 2007)

Flip Ultra (2007, $130)Top-selling camcorder.

Necklace phone(Nokia 2004)

iPhone (Apple 2007)© 2010 Accelerating.org



IA (Intelligence Amplification) and the Conversational Interface (CI): Circa 2012-2019

Date Avg. Query Platform

1998 1.3 words Altavista2005 2.6 words Google2012 5.2 words GoogleHelp2019 10.4 words

GoogleBrain

Average spoken human-to-humancomplex query is 8-11 words.

Codebreaking follows a logistic curve.

Collective NLP may as well.

Smart, J. 2003. The Conversational Interface: Our Next Great Leap Forward.Halevy et. al. 2009. The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Data, Intell. Sys. 24(2):8-12. © 2010 Accelerating.org

Siri.com. Amazing NLP for phones today.



Why Will We Want to Talk to an Avatar/AgentInterface (“CyberTwin”) in 2010? In 2020?

Ananova, 2000

“Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987

Nonverbal and verbal language in parallel is a much more efficient communication modality.

Birdwhistell says 2/3 (but perhaps only 1/3) of info in face-to-face human conversation is nonverbal.





Milo (and Milly): The Faces of Xbox Natal.Conversational Avatars for Kids.

▪ A permanently better new primary way of interacting with our machines.

▪ Start with a game (limited domain) and kids (patience for avatars of limited intelligence).

▪ Once this conversational interface is server-based, it will get smarter every month. Like Google’s does now. Then every week.

▪ A time when serious games can get serious. Milo and Kate, Lionhead Studios, Peter Molyneux (Proposed Dec 2010)



Circa 2020: The Symbiotic Age

A Coevolution Between Saturating Humansand Accelerating Technology.A time when:

▪ Complex things can “speak our language.”

▪ Our technologies become very responsive to our needs and desires.

▪ Humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other.

▪ We will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”




Symbiont Networks: The Extended Digital SelfA Post 2015 Emergence?

When we have an early Web 3.0, lifelogs, and pervasive broadband connectivity, we can expect…

150 (Dunbar number) of our kids most cognitively diverse (Page 2008) friends permissioned into their lifestreams, 24/7.

A reputation and reciprocity collaboration system that keeps everyone contributing to the symbiont (no free riders).

Powerful new group learning and expert performance, with symbionts seriously outperforming unconnected individuals. Always having 150 “lifelines” who know you, in any situation.

New cultural protocols, symbionts must be temporarily turned off for job interviews, tests, private moments, etc.).

Serious behavioral modification (juveniles, criminals, mentally ill) and performance enhancement era begins.

Fantastic new subcultural diversity (geek symbionts, futurist symbionts, Quaker symbionts, Shoppers United symbionts, etc.)

Page, Scott. 2008. The Difference: How the Power of Diversity Creates Better Groups, Firms, Schools and Societies, Princeton U. Press. © 2010 Accelerating.org



Circa 2030: The ValuecosmA More Pluralistic and Positive-Sum Future

Microcosm (Gilder), 1960’s Telecosm (Gilder), 1990’s Datacosm (Sterling), 2010’s Valuecosm (Smart), 2030’s

- Recording & Publishing Cybertwin Prefs- Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us- Mapping Positive-Sum Social Interactions- Much Early Abuse (Marketing, Fraud, Advise)- Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding

Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable)- Today’s Leading Edge: Social Network Media




Your Cybertwin – Your Digital Self:Helping You Now, Helping Others Later

Greg Panos and his Digital MomPersonaFoundation.org

“I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.”

“I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.”

Prediction: ▪ When your mother dies in 2040, your digital mom will be “50% her.”▪ When your best friend dies in 2060, your digital best friend will be “80% him.”

Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition… of you.

When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological should feel like only growth, not death.

We wouldn’t have it any other way. © 2010 Accelerating.org



The Digital Self: Social, Economic, and Political Implications

Some Challenges - particularly early: Data Security and Privacy Predictive Marketing and Profiling Debt Slavery and Overconsumption New Forms of Crime and Fraud Polarizing and Isolating Eco Chambers (collapse of community) Parenting (How early can kids have CT’s?) New Addictions and Dependencies (CT ‘relationships’?)

Some Opportunities - particularly later: Indiv. Intell./Performance Enhancement (Complete your sentences?) Group Intelligence/Perform. Enhancement (Symbiont networks) Subculture Diversity and Victimless Variety Global Communication & Collaboration (no language barrier) Digital and Educational Divides (greatly reduced) Indiv./Group/Culture Rights Representation (‘lobby twins’) Transparency and Accountablity of Corps, Institutions, Govts.




The Digital Self: Biggest Single Catalyst We’ll See in Our Lifetimes

What Do You Want to Improve? IT/Infrastructure Mgmt Identity Management Social Networks Video Management Marketing Education Knowledge Management Performance Management Talent Management Innovation Social Responsibility Environmental Sustainability Organizational Development Collective Foresight




Tablet Form Factor as a Developmental Optimum:What Uses Do You Predict? Which Will Emerge Next?


What are the most exciting developmental uses for a tablet? #1. iTV Remote! #2. e-Reading, #3 Video, #4 Games, #5 Clipboard.

There are about 2.3 billion TVs in the world. 15,000+ streamable TV channels. Thousands more sit on the web, waiting for bandwidth. May be hundreds of thousands by 2015.

25% of US TVs sold in Jan 2010 were connected by consumers to the internet (internally or via a set top box, game console, DVD player), 40% of these were internally-enabled.

Tablet TV Remote: Voice enabled, collaborative filtering of thousands of channels, 2ndary screen, social viewing (chat, teamspeak), P2PTV, true internet television.

Lenovo Ideapad U1: Bestmultiuse design. June 2010

Will Google get this done?

A perfect YouTube front end.

Apple iPad: No Apple TV.Too little, too closed.

Discussion

The Digital Self: When Social Media Get Personal

Documents

ation evo devo

digital data

experimentation evo

model of change

evo jump

global brain

global ai

evolutionary variety