The Demographic Transition: A Contemporary Look at a Classic Model
The Demographic
Transition:
A Contemporary Look at a
Classic Model
World Population Growth (1950–2000)
Total world population increased from 2.5 to 6 billion in this half century.
The natural increase rate peaked in the early 1960s and has declined since,
but the number of people added each year did not peak until 1990.
The Demographic
Transition
Focuses on economic reasons for growth. Does
not consider religion, culture, political actions,
or migration.
Stages1. High birth and high (but fluctuating) death
rates.
• Population grows slowly
2. High birth rates and low mortality
• Rapid population growth
• Life expectancies increase
3. Birth rates decline due to family planning
• Urbanization/Industrialization
4. Very low and nearly equal birth and death rates.
• Aging population; ZPG
Excludes Mentifacts Sociofacts
Demographic Transition in England
England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population
growth in the mid-18th century, when it entered stage 2 of the DTM.
Fluctuating population
growth- famines, disease, and low
food supply
Better agricultural practices, thus more food.
Few plagues and famines Industrialization
5.5 avg children/ womanTo 2.4
Pop. Growth is
stable
A. U.S. Population
Growth1. U.S. has moved
slightly below ZPG since 2000
2. In U.S.: 75% of people live in cities…parents have smaller families
3. Immigration is the cause of U.S. population increase
Europe as a source and destinationfor migrants
B. Russian Population Growth
1. Many E. European countries have negative natural increase rates…a legacy of Communist rule
2. Will Russia display higher birth rates?
Demographic Transition
C. Countries in Different Stages of
DTM:
1. NO country today in Stage 1
2. Stage 2: Undeveloped poorer countries
3. Stage 3: Developing countries (India, China)
4. Stage 4: Developed countries w/ ZPG (E.U.)
5. Stage 5: Population “Implosion” (Japan)
“Dependency ratio”: amount of individuals not
in the labor force (the dependents; elderly & young)
& those in the labor force
Rapid Growth in Cape Verde
Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic
transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth.
Its population history reflects the impacts of famines & out-migration.
Moderate Growth in Chile
Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the
1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.
Low Growth in Denmark
Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since
the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population
pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.
Demographic Transition in
Sweden & Mexico
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000
Sweden
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Mexico
Birth Rate
Death Rate
Births/Deaths per 1,000
1750
D. DTM & World Pop Growth
Global pop. doubled twice during 2nd half of 20th-cen.
• the sudden drop in the death rate is worldwide
• The sudden drop in the birth rate—yet to be achieved in many countries
The 19th-cen. decline in the CDR in Europe & N. America occurred with the Industrial Revolution
The sudden drop in CDR in Africa, Asia, & Latin America: accomplished by “Medical Revolution”
E. Is the DTM Still Useful?
How well does the classic model work for developing
countries?
Do developing countries need to share the
experiences of Europe & the U.S.?
Is industrialization a prerequisite or a consequence of
demographic transition?
Preindustrial Transitional Industrial