Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers December 11, 2013 Cameron MacGillivray, President & CEO, Enform The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
Nov 07, 2014
This study is funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers (CAPP).
The viewer of this slide deck has permission to use limited labour market information (or LMI) content for general reference or educational purposes in the viewer’s analysis or research reports. “Limited LMI content” is defined as a maximum of three slides or data tables/graphs from this slide deck. Where limited LMI content is used, the viewer must cite the source of the limited LMI content as follows: Source (or “adapted from”): Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada (now part of Enform), name of product, catalogue, volume and issue numbers, reference period and page(s).
The viewer of this slide deck cannot however:
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- Use this slide deck and its contents to develop or derive any other information product or information service for commercial distribution or sale
- Use this slide deck and its contents in any manner deemed competitive with any other product or service sold by the Petroleum HR Council
The information and projections contained herein have been prepared with data sources the Council has deemed to be reliable. The Council makes no representations or warranties that this report is error free and therefore shall not be liable for any financial or other losses or damages of any nature whatsoever arising from or otherwise relating to any use of this slide deck.
The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the Petroleum HR Council and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada nor CAPP.
The viewer of this slide deck has permission to use limited labour market information (or LMI) content for general reference or educational purposes in the viewer’s analysis or research reports. “Limited LMI content” is defined as a maximum of three slides or data tables/graphs from this slide deck. Where limited LMI content is used, the viewer must cite the source of the limited LMI content as follows: Source (or “adapted from”): Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada (now part of Enform), name of product, catalogue, volume and issue numbers, reference period and page(s).
The viewer of this slide deck cannot however:
- Market, distribute, export, translate, transmit, merge, modify, transfer, adapt, loan, rent, lease, assign, share, sub-license or make available to another person or entity, this slide deck in any way, in whole or in part
- Use this slide deck and its contents to develop or derive any other information product or information service for commercial distribution or sale
- Use this slide deck and its contents in any manner deemed competitive with any other product or service sold by the Petroleum HR Council
The information and projections contained herein have been prepared with data sources the Council has deemed to be reliable. The Council makes no representations or warranties that this report is error free and therefore shall not be liable for any financial or other losses or damages of any nature whatsoever arising from or otherwise relating to any use of this slide deck.
The opinions and interpretations in this publication are those of the Petroleum HR Council and do not necessarily reflect those of the Government of Canada nor CAPP.
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Funded in part by the Government of Canada and the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers
December 11, 2013
Cameron MacGillivray, President & CEO, Enform
The Decade Ahead:
Labour Market Outlook to 2022 for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
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Table of Contents (Agenda)
• Introduction
• Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry Labour Market Outlook to 2022
• Oil Sands Labour Demand Outlook to 2022
• Recommended Workforce Solutions
2
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About the Petroleum HR Council
• The primary resource to address human resource issues in the petroleum industry.
– Proactively seek solutions through collaborative partnerships
– Anticipate the evolving needs of the industry
– A catalyst for change
• Key priorities of the Council:
– Labour Market Information (LMI)
– Careers in Oil and Gas
• Other workforce development projects:
– Federation of Saskatchewan Indian Nations (FSIN) Training & Employment in Oil and Gas
– General Safety Orientation (eGSO) Marketing and Dissemination
– Oil Sands Learning Network
3
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Petroleum HR Council—Now Part of Enform Canada
Effective April 1, 2013, the Petroleum HR Council became a division of Enform:
Petroleum HR Council’s human resources services
+
Enform’s safety and training services
=
One integrated national entity serving Canada’s oil and gas industry
About Enform:
– The safety association for Canada’s upstream oil and gas industry
– Represents all six sectors of the industry
– The primary resource and advocate for improving the industry’s safety performance
4
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LMI Value to Oil and Gas Stakeholders
• Timely, relevant and credible LMI
– provides facts and insights into labour and skill shortages
– helps stakeholders develop and implement effective workforce strategies
• Specifically, LMI helps:
– Companies plan successful attraction, retention and workforce development strategies
– Industry associations champion the interests of their members and their member’s employees
– Professional associations promote their professions and support their members
– Job seekers and students plan their careers and explore employment opportunities
5
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Our LMI Expertise
Labour Market Outlooks:
Long-term employment and hiring projections for:
– Canada’s oil and gas industry as a whole
– Key operating regions
– Petroleum industry sectors
– Core occupations
HR Trends and Insights:
Intelligence on short-term labour market conditions and human resources trends
6
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Labour Market Outlooks: Overview of Scope and Methodology
Labour demand projections
– Employment
– Hiring due to industry activity
– Hiring due to age-related attrition
– Hiring due to non-retirement turnover
• Available for total industry and by:
– Petroleum industry sector
– Key operating region
– Core occupation
• Employment drivers:
– Oil & gas capital expenditures
– Oil & gas operating expenditures
– Oil sands production7
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Labour Market Outlooks: Overview of Scope and Methodology (cont’d)
Labour supply projections
Two sources of labour supply:
– New entrants
– In-mobility labour supply
Projected labour and skill shortages
Projected unemployment rate < “balanced” unemployment rate labour shortage
– Balanced rate is set at 6 percent for industry total but differs for each occupation
Labour market analysis
• Business and labour market trends impacting oil and gas industry’s workforce
• Strategies and solutions for stakeholder consideration
8
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38 Core Occupations
9
OIL AND GAS OCCUPATIONS DETAILED IN THIS STUDY
1 Crane and heavy equipment operators 14 Oil and gas well drilling workers and service operators
2 Drafting technologists and technicians 15 Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators)
3 Drilling coordinators/production managers 16 Production clerks
4 Engineers: chemical, civil, electrical/ instrumentation, mechanical, mining, petroleum, project 17 Petroleum, gas and chemical process operators (no steam-
ticket required)
5 Engineering technologists: chemical, civil, industrial, instrumentation, mechanical, petroleum/mining/geological 18 Public, environmental, health and safety inspectors
6 Geologists and geophysicists 19 Purchasing agents and officers
7 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 20 Steamfitters and pipefitters
8 Industrial electricians 21 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service
9 Insulators 22 Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities
10 Millwrights and machinists 23 Technicians: environmental, instrumentation
11 Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians 24 Truck drivers
12 Oil and gas drilling, servicing, and related labourers 25 Welders
13 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related workers 26 Other occupations
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Business Trends Impacting Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry
• Attraction of investment
– Oil sands, especially in situ
– Liquefied natural gas (LNG)
– Shale/conventional oil
– Hebron offshore project
• Joint ventures with Asian companies
– Longer-term view of development and learning opportunity
• Downside risks
– Single customer market (US)
– Lack of infrastructure to support market diversification
– Skill shortages
10
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Oil and Gas Industry Activity – Two Scenarios
11
Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario
Market diversification does not occur
• Growth is driven by North American demand
• Moderate increases to conventional oil and oil sands production
• Continued focus on liquids-rich natural gas
Market diversification occurs
• Canadian producers supply international markets
• Debottleneck/expansion of oil pipelines
• Development of LNG export facilities and pipelines
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Current Oil and Gas Industry Workforce (Direct Employment) TOP TEN OIL AND GAS OCCUPATIONS
BASED ON 2012 EMPLOYMENT (# of jobs)
Industry Total (195,200)
1 Oil and gas drilling, servicing, and related labourers
12,940
2 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related workers
12,305
3 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 9,570
4 Oil and gas well drilling workers and service operators
9,030
5 Petroleum, gas, chemical process operators (no steam-ticket required)
7,140
6 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 7,080
7 Petroleum engineers 6,860
8 Drilling coordinators/production managers 6,765
9 Truck drivers 6,440
10 Millwrights and machinists 5,160
12
Sector2012 Employment
(Estimated)
Oil and gas services 94,100
Conventional E&P 72,000
Oil sands 22,300
Pipelines 6,800
Total Industry 195,200
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Oil and Gas Industry Employment Outlook to 2022
In the Low Growth scenario, the industry adds just under 18,300 jobs, while in the Expansion scenario, the industry adds 38,700 jobs.
13
2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F170,000
180,000
190,000
200,000
210,000
220,000
230,000
240,000
195,200
199,700
213,500(+9%)
233,900(+20%)
Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario
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Occupations with Greatest Net Hiring Requirements to 2022
TEN OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS* TO 2022 (# of job openings Low Growth – Expansion)
Industry Total (62,440 – 84,030 )
1 Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators) 2,945 – 4,105
2 Heavy equipment operators (except crane) 2,425 – 3,990
3 Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related workers 2,945 – 3,985
4 Drilling coordinators/production managers 3,050 – 3,945
5 Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 2,930 – 3,640
6 Oil and gas drilling, servicing, and related labourers 2,415 – 3,480
7 Petroleum engineers 2,150 – 2,910
8 Truck drivers 2,200 – 2,825
9 Oil and gas well drilling workers and service operators 1,860 – 2,590
10 Geologists and geophysicists 1,715 – 2,305
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*Net hiring requirements = hiring due to industry activity + age-related attrition (excludes non-retirement turnover)
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Oil Sands Net Hiring Requirements to 2022Engineers, Geologists & Geophysicists
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OCCUPATIONALBERTA CANADA
LOW EXPANSION LOW EXPANSION
Chemical engineers 378 537 419 583
Civil engineers 123 171 145 200
Electrical/instrumentation engineers 355 503 377 529
Industrial and manufacturing engineer 341 468 359 491
Mechanical engineers 548 781 609 855
Mining engineers 64 124 66 127
Petroleum engineers 1,919 2,607 2,150 2,908
Geologists and geophysicists 1,511 2,038 1,715 2,305
Total 5,239 7,229 5,840 7,998
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Net Hiring Requirements to 2022 – Expansion Scenario(Number of Workers)
16
Project/Cost control engineers
Petroleum/Reservoir engineers
Mining engineers
Mechanical engineers
Geologists and geophysicists
Electrical/Instrumentation engineers
Civil engineers
Chemical engineers
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500
Hiring due to Age-Related Attrition Hiring due to Industry Activity
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Net Hiring Requirements to 2022 – Expansion Scenario(Percent of 2012 Workforce)
17
Project/Cost control engineers
Petroleum/Reservoir engineers
Mining engineers
Mechanical engineers
Geologists and geophysicists
Electrical/Instrumentation engineers
Civil engineers
Chemical engineers
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%
Hiring due to Age-Relate Attrition Hiring due to Industry Activity
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2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2011A 2012E 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
6.0
5.4
Balanced Labour Market Low Growth Scenario Expansion Scenario
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
Projected Labour Shortages
18
For both scenarios, there is no relief in sight as industry unemployment rates fall below a balanced labour market for the duration of the projection period.
5.15.6
4.9
Severe shortages experienced in 2007 are expected to return by 2014 when the industry unemployment rate falls to around five percent in either scenario.
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Occupational Labour Shortages
19
Occupations with ten-year average projected unemployment rates below the balanced rate (both scenarios):
• Crane operators• Heavy equipment operators (except crane)• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics• Industrial electricians• Insulators• Millwrights and machinists• Power engineers• Steamfitters and pipefitters• Truck drivers• Welders
• Chemical engineering technologists• Drafting technologists and technicians• Environmental technicians• Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists
and technicians• Instrumentation engineering technologists• Instrumentation technicians• Mechanical engineering technologists• Petroleum/mining/geological engineering technologists
• Chemical engineers• Civil engineers• Electrical/instrumentation engineers• Mechanical engineers• Mining engineers• Petroleum engineers• Project engineers• Geologists and geophysicists
• Drilling coordinators/production managers• Oil and gas drilling, servicing, and related labourers• Oil and gas well drillers, servicers, testers, and related
workers• Oil and gas well drilling workers and service operators• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service• Purchasing agents and officers• Inspectors in public and environmental health and safety• Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians
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Occupations with Above-Average Age-Related Attrition Rates
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OCCUPATION
AVERAGE AGE OF THE
LABOUR FORCE
TEN-YEAR AVERAGE
AGE-RELATED ATTRITION RATE
Industry Total 40 23%Supervisors, petroleum, gas and chemical processing and utilities 44 32%
Drilling coordinators/production managers 44 31%
Geologists and geophysicists 44 29%
Industrial engineering and manufacturing technologists and technicians 42 29%
Inspectors in public and environmental health and safety 42 29%
Purchasing agents and officers 42 28%
Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service 43 27%
Non-destructive testers and inspection technicians 40 26%
Petroleum engineers and crane operators 42 25%
Project engineers and industrial electricians 41 25%
Drafting technologists and technicians 40 25%
Petroleum/mining/geological engineering technologists 38 25%
Civil engineers 42 24%
Electrical/instrumentation engineers 40 24%
Instrumentation engineering technologists 39 24%
Power engineers (or steam-ticketed operators) 38 24%
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Long-Term Hiring Outlook (2013 – 2022)
Total recruitment activity over the next decade ranges between 125,000 and 150,000 to meet industry activity, age-related attrition and a 3 per cent non-retirement turnover.
21
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Sector Analysis: Employment and Net Hiring
22
Oil and Gas Services Conventional E&P
2012 employment = 94,000 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 37,700 openings (40 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 47,900 openings (51 percent of 2012 employment)
2012 employment = 72,000 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 6,800 openings (9 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 10,700 openings (15 percent of 2012 employment)
Oil Sands Pipelines
2012 employment = 22,300 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 14,900 openings (67 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 22,200 openings (100 percent of 2012 employment)
2012 employment = 6,800 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 3,000 openings (44 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 3,250 openings (48 percent of 2012 employment)
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Provincial Analysis: Employment and Net Hiring
23
British Columbia (BC) Alberta (AB)
2012 employment = 12,000 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 3,100 openings (26 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 4,100 openings (34 percent of 2012 employment)
2012 employment = 160,000 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 53,800 openings (34 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 72,700 openings (45 percent of 2012 employment)
Saskatchewan (SK) Rest of Canada (RoC)
2012 employment = 11,600 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 2,600 openings (22 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 3,500 openings (30 percent of 2012 employment)
2012 employment = 12,200 workers
Low growth scenario net hiring = 2,900 openings (24 percent of 2012 employment)
Expansion scenario net hiring = 3,800 openings (31 percent of 2012 employment)
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Employment Impacts of Oil and Gas Investment and Activities to 2022
24
Investments and activities by the oil and gas industry benefit all Canadians.
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Oil Sands Labour Demand Outlook to 2022: Key Findings and Analysis
25
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Scope of Oil Sands Labour Demand Outlook
Oil sands operations workforce: directly employed by oil sands companies and includes workers:
– located on-site
– in head and regional offices (e.g., in Calgary, Edmonton)
Out of scope:
• Workers supporting both oil sands and conventional E&P (in integrated companies)
• Oil and gas service workers
• Construction workforce
• Support service roles (induced workforce)
26
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56 Core Occupations
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OIL SANDS OPERATIONS OCCUPATIONS DETAILED IN THIS STUDYAutomotive servicers and technicians Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators)
Construction estimators and managers Primary production managers and clerks
Crane and heavy equipment operators Process operators (non-steam operators)
Drafting technologists and technicians Public relations and communications professionals
Electrical power line and cable workers Purchasing, inventory clerks and managers
Engineers: chemical, civil, electrical/ instrumentation, geological, mechanical, metallurgy and materials, mining, petroleum, project Quality assurance analysts
Engineering technologists: chemical, civil, industrial, instrumentation, mechanical, petroleum/mining/geological Shippers and receivers
Engineering, facility operation and maintenance managers Steamfitters and pipefitters
Geologists and geophysicists Supervisors, mining and quarrying
Heavy-duty equipment mechanics Supervisors, recording, distributing and scheduling occupations
Industrial and power system electricians Supervisors, trades
Public, environmental, health and safety inspectors Technicians: environmental, instrumentation
Land surveyors Water and waste plant operators
Landmen/purchasing agents Welders
Millwrights and machinists Other occupations
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Current Oil Sands WorkforceTOP TEN OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS BASED ON 2012 EMPLOYMENT (# of jobs)
Total Oil Sands (22,340)
1 Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators) 3,815
2 Heavy equipment operators 3,055
3 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 985
4 Facility operation and maintenance managers
960
5 Engineering managers 855
6 Petroleum engineers 810
7 Mechanical engineers 575
8 Primary production managers 570
9 Industrial electricians 565
10 Millwrights and machinists 565
28
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Oil Sands Operations Employment Outlook to 2022
Direct oil sands operations employment is projected to increase by 16,000 jobs
Employment in 2022 is estimated at 38,300 workers
29
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Occupations with Greatest Net Hiring Requirements
These occupations account for more than 55% of oil sands net hiring requirements
TEN OIL SANDS OCCUPATIONS WITH GREATEST NET HIRING REQUIREMENTS TO 2022 (# of job openings)
Total Oil Sands (22,500)
1 Power engineers (steam-ticketed operators) 3,985
2 Heavy equipment operators 2,295
3 Petroleum engineers 1,090
4 Engineering managers 1,025
5 Facility operation and maintenance managers 975
6 Heavy-duty equipment mechanics 785
7 Primary production managers 710
8 Instrumentation technicians 575
9 Mechanical engineers 550
10 Industrial electricians 500
30
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Total Hiring Requirements to 2022
Total hiring requirements = 31,850 (143 percent of 2012 employment)
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2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F 2022F0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
OIL SANDS TOTAL HIRING OUTLOOK TO 2022
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Due to Industry Activity Due to Age-related Attrition Due to 3% Non-retirement Turnover
4,065 2,765 2,450 2,805 2,355 2,680 3,560 3,795 3,735 3,630
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Demand-driven Workforce Solutions
32
• Connecting Canadians with Available Jobs
Collaboration between industry, government, and education and training institutions
Attract workers from provinces with higher unemployment rates
Enhance mobility of transferable skills and qualifications across industries and regions
Develop a more effective and efficient education and training system
Increase energy literacy and industry career awareness across Canada
Increase apprenticeship opportunities
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