The Decade Ahead 2010 2020 Labour Market Projections and Analysis

The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020March 2011

Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada

Funded in part by the Government of Canada’s Sector Council Program, Province of Alberta, Canada-British Columbia Labour Market Development Agreement, and Province of Saskatchewan.

Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada www.petrohrsc.ca 2

Presentation Outline

• Overview of Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada

• Labour Market Information (LMI) Background and Overview

• Labour Market Projections and Analysis 2010-2020 o Industry outlooko Occupational outlookso Sector outlooks:

– Services– Exploration and production– Oil sands– Pipeline

o Provincial outlooks:– British Columbia– Alberta– Saskatchewan– Rest of Canada

o Workforce considerations


Petroleum HR Council of Canada

What is it?

• National, not-for-profit collaborative forum that addresses human resources issues within the petroleum industry:o Labour market information; o Skill shortages and retention;o Promotion of industry careers; ando Opportunities & challenges in a cyclical industry.

• The Council was established as a sector council through a Human Resources Skills Development Canada initiative.

Who are its stakeholders?

• 11 oil and gas national and regional industry organizations, including one union.


Petroleum HR Council of Canada

The Petroleum HR Council benefits from industry and union support and advice within all sectors of the upstream petroleum industry in Canada:

• Exploration and production;

• Service industries – geophysical services, drilling and completions, and well services;

• Pipeline transmission;

• Natural gas processing; and

• Mining, extracting and upgrading heavy oil and bitumen.

The Petroleum HR Council addresses industry issues by:

• Developing strategies, solutions, products and services to address industry short, medium and long-term workforce issues;

• Facilitating the exchange of ideas and information; and

• Providing industry-related information on workforce issues and career opportunities.

Petroleum Human Resources Council of Canada www.petrohrsc.ca

LMI Purpose/Value

LMI informs decision making at all levels and is vital for attracting, developing and recruiting a qualified workforce for the petroleum industry.

LMI helps:• Companies plan successful retention and recruitment strategies.• Governments make policy and program decisions including immigration strategies, labour

adjustment programs, and skills and training strategies.• Professional associations promote their professions and support their members.• Education and training institutions and organizations plan for program content, enrollment

and funding.• Career practitioners and guidance counsellors make career recommendations.• Job seekers plan their careers.

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LMI Types

The Council generates three types of LMI:

1. Short Term HR Trends: provides a snapshot of labour market conditions and trends within petroleum workforce. Includes information such as workforce issues and trends, companies’ current and planned recruitment practices, in-demand jobs and locations companies are hiring for.

2. Situational Analysis: outlines business, regulatory, social and technological trends and their impact on the petroleum workforce.

3. Labour Market Projections and Analysis: provides labour demand and supply outlooks including projected gaps utilizing industry-generated employment drivers and key assumptions. Projections and analysis, which are available by industry total, sector, key provinces and core occupations, help inform effective workforce strategies for the Canadian petroleum industry.

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The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020- An Overview


The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020

What you will find:

• Scenario projections and analysis by:o Core occupations.o Petroleum sectors: Services, Exploration and production, Oil sands, and Pipeline.o Key provinces: British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Rest of Canada.

• Hiring Requirements:

o Due to industry activity:

– Also referred to as “expansion demand,” is the projected change in the number of workers required based on industry activity.

– Based on occupational relationship to employment drivers.

o Due to age-related attrition:

– Also referred to as “replacement demand,” is the number of industry positions that will be vacated due to retirements and natural deaths.

– Calculated using age-related attrition rate for each occupation.

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The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections & Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020

What you will find:

• Potential labour supply for the industry: magnitude and potential sources of labour supply based on industry’s historical share of labour supply and availability of workers within the Canadian labour force.

• Labour supply/demand gaps: comparison of industry’s labour demand based on its hiring needs and its share of potential labour supply by core occupation.

o Indicated as an occupation’s projected unemployment rate.

o Compare projected unemployment rate to balanced unemployment rate.

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The Decade Ahead: Core Occupations

*Titles reflect National Occupational Classification (NOC)

10

• Chemical Engineering Technologists • Chemical Engineers • Civil Engineers• Crane Operators • Drafting Technologists and Technicians • Drilling Coordinators/Production Managers • Electrical and Electronics Engineering

Technologists and Technicians • Electrical/Instrumentation Engineers • Environmental Technicians • Geologists and Geophysicists • Heavy Equipment Operators • Heavy-duty Equipment Mechanics • Industrial Electricians• Inspectors in Public, Environmental and

Occupational Health and Safety • Instrumentation Engineering Technologists • Instrumentation Technicians • Insulators • Millwrights and Machinists

• Mechanical Engineering Technologists • Mechanical Engineers • Mining Engineers• Oil and Gas Well Drillers, Servicers, Testers

and Related Workers, Operators and Labourers

• Operators - Steam and Non-steam Ticket • Petroleum Engineering Technologists • Petroleum Engineers • Production Clerks/Production Accountants• Project/Cost Control Engineers • Purchasing Agents/Landmen • Quality Assurance Analysts • Steamfitters and Pipefitters • Supervisors, Oil and Gas Drilling and

Service • Supervisors, Petroleum, Gas and Chemical

Processing and Utilities • Truck Drivers • Welders


The Decade Ahead: Petroleum Sectors

• Exploration and production (E&P): activity for conventional oil and gas reserves and unconventional reserves excluding oil sands.

• Oil sands: extraction, production, and upgrading of bitumen.

• Services: contracted exploration, extraction and production services to the E&P and Oil sands sectors; excludes manufacturing and supply. o Petroleum services includes well services, oilfield construction and maintenance,

production and transportation services.o Drilling and completions services includes drilling and service rig activities.o Geophysical services (also known as seismic) includes survey, permitting and

reclamation, line construction, drilling and data acquisition.

• Pipeline: mainline transmission for transporting daily crude oil and natural gas production in Canada.

*Current employment numbers available for Offshore sector; however, Offshore employment projections are incorporated in E&P and Services sector.

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The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020 - Petroleum Industry Activity Scenarios


2 Price Scenarios = 3 Industry Activity Scenarios

Oil Price + Natural Gas Price = Industry Activity Scenario

Low oil price + Low gas price = Low Scenario

Growth oil price + Low gas price = Growth Oil/

Low Gas Scenario

Growth oil price + Growth gas price = Growth Scenario

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Impact on Industry Investment and Activity

14

Low Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario Growth Scenario

Low oil and gas prices do not encourage investment or industry growth.• E&P reinvestment ratio

falls below 10-year average to 55-60%.

• Does not encourage additional investment beyond what is currently under-construction.

• Oil sands production increases to 2016 and then flattens.

• Oil sands mining production remains greater than in-situ production.

Shift in capital investment toward oil and away from gas continues.• Oil price reasonable for

sustainable growth within Oil sands sector.

• Oil sands production doubles between 2010 and 2020.

• In-situ production outgrows mining production after 2016.

Industry expansion is encouraged by increased oil and gas prices and greater demand for natural gas.• E&P reinvestment ratio

rises above 10-year average to 60-70%.

• Oil sands production doubles by 2020.


The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020 - Industry Outlook


Industry Outlook: Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

16

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

246,887 (+45%)

177,892 (+4%)170,844

164,129 (-4%)

Petroleum Industry Employment Outlook to 2020 – 3 Scenarios

Growth Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas ScenarioLow Scenario

Nu

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of

Wo

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Actual Projected


Industry Outlook: Hiring Due to Age-Related Attrition

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OccupationAverage

Age (2009)

Age-related Attrition in Each Scenario

Low Growth Oil/Low Gas

Growth

Drilling coordinators/ production managers

45 38% 39% 46%

Geologists and geophysicists 44 37% 37% 44%

Landmen/purchasing agents 42 35% 35% 42%

Industrial engineering technologists 42 35% 36% 41%

Inspectors in public and environmental health and safety

42 35% 36% 41%

Supervisors, petroleum and gas processing

43 36% 37% 40%

An aging workforce will contribute to industry’s hiring requirements in a significant way.


Industry Outlook: Hiring Due to Age-Related Attrition (cont’d)

18

OccupationAverage

Age (2009)

Age-related Attrition Rate (Projected)

Low Growth Oil/Low Gas

Growth

Project/cost control engineers 42 30% 31% 37%

Industrial electricians 41 32% 32% 36%

Petroleum/geological/mining engineering technologists

39 28% 28% 36%

Crane operators 42 31% 31% 35%

Drafting technologists and technicians 39 29% 30% 35%

Petroleum/reservoir engineers 42 29% 29% 35%

An aging workforce will contribute to industry’s hiring requirements in a significant way.


Industry Hiring Outlook – Low Scenario

Age-related attrition drives industry’s hiring in low scenario. To replace retirees between 2010 and 2020, industry needs to hire approximately 39,000 workers.

19

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

-2,654-1,466 -1,589

-811 -714 -270

405 989 595

-386 -813

3,848 3,924 4,066 4,100 4,102 4,1454,203

4,2674,332

4,383 4,413

Petroleum Industry Net Hiring Requirements - Low Scenario

Due to Industry Activity Due to Age-related Attrition

Nu

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Posit

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Industry Hiring Outlook – Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario

While there will be some job losses between 2010 and 2020, new oil sands projects and the need to replace retiring workers drive the hiring of 53,500 workers.

20

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

-2,637 -1,393 -1,379 -232

366 980 1,747 2,855 3,123 2,090 1,530

3,848 3,924 4,067 4,1044,116

4,1774,260

4,349 4,450

4,5514,633

Petroleum Industry Net Hiring Requirements - Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario


Nu

mb

er

of

Posit

ion

s

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Industry Hiring Outlook – Growth Scenario

Industry expansion and workforce retirements between 2010 and 2020 drive the need to hire over 130,000 workers.

21

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

-2,637

6,574 13,250 11,298 8,202 7,049 5,612 6,205 7,450 6,753 6,288

3,848

3,924

4,2014,512

4,7735,016

5,235 5,4165,593 5,782 5,963

Petroleum Industry Net Hiring Requirements - Growth Scenario


Nu

mb

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of

Posit

ion

s

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020


Industry Net Hiring Outlook

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To replace retirees between 2010 and 2020, industry needs to hire approximately 39,000 workers.

While there will be some job losses between 2010 and 2020, new oil sands projects and the need to replace retiring workers drive the hiring of 53,500 workers.

Industry expansion and workforce retirements between 2010 and 2020 drive the need to hire over130,000 workers.

Regardless of the pace of economic recovery, the petroleum industry will be challenged to meet its hiring requirements.


Core Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario

Ten Core Occupations With Greatest Hiring Requirements

Based on number of positions: Based on % change from 2009:

• Oil and gas drilling and service field workers (17,677)

• Operators - steam and non-steam (7,065)• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service

(6,315)• Drilling coordinators/production managers

(6,203)• Heavy equipment operators (4,728)• Truck drivers (4,706)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (4,585)• Millwrights and machinists (3,590)• Welders (2,421)• Petroleum/geological/mining engineering

technologists (2,148)

• Drilling coordinators/production managers (+111%)

• Landmen/purchasing agents (+103%)• Mining engineers (+103%)• Industrial electricians (+96%)• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics

(+95%)• Drafting technologists and technicians

(+94%)• Millwrights and machinists (+94%)• Petroleum/geological/mining

engineering technologists (+94%) • Industrial engineering technologists

(+92%)• Project/cost control engineers (+91%)

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Labour Supply/Demand Outlook – Low Scenario

24

Job losses diminish the industry’s ability to attract labour supply from in-mobility sources, resulting in labour supply/demand gaps.


Labour Supply/Demand Outlook – Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario

25

Industry’s main source of potential labour supply is new entrants, creating a productivity risk given that hiring needs to focus on replacing retirees.

7,050

13,501

33,027

46,479


Labour Supply/Demand Outlook – Growth Scenario

26

Increased activity enhances the industry’s ability to attract labour supply from in-mobility sources – mostly immigrants.

76,044

54,263 84,978

39,600

76,044

54,263

84,978

39,600


Labour Supply/Demand Outlook – Labour Shortages

27

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20202

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

5.3%

3.7%

5.6%

4.4%

5.8%

4.8%

Industry's Projected Unemployment Rate

Growth Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas ScenarioLow Scenario Balanced Unemployment Rate

Un

em

plo

ym

en

t R

ate

(%

)

4.5%

Actual Projected

Industry labour shortages return by 2012 in the growth scenario and by 2014 in the other two scenarios.


Labour Supply/Demand Outlook – Key Findings

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• Job losses diminish industry’s ability to attract labour supply from in-mobility sources.

• Tight labour market returns in 2014 and worsens throughout forecast.

• Industry’s main source of potential labour supply is new entrants, creating a productivity risk given that hiring needs to focus on replacing retirees.

• Tight labour market returns in 2013.

• Industry’s unemployment rate falls to 2007 level by 2020.

• Increased activity enhances the industry’s ability to attract immigrants.

• Very tight labour market and significant labour shortages return in 2012.

• Industry’s projected unemployment rate falls below 2007 rate in 2013.

Regardless of scenario, labour shortages are not going away.


Current and Chronic Labour Shortages

The petroleum industry is already facing chronic shortages for certain occupations:

• Experienced engineers: exploitation completions, production, mining

• Plant operators, steam engineers and power engineers

• Maintenance trades

• Production accountants

• Field operators/specialists: slickline, snubbing, completions, Class 1 drivers

• Rig crews (derrickhands in particular)

• Environmental and regulatory specialists

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Emerging Skills and Labour Shortages

New technologies and extraction methods have increased demand for certain occupations:

• Software technologists/developers

• Geologists and engineers with knowledge of shale gas and oil reservoirs and well stimulation and completions

• Measurement while drilling (MWD) specialists

• Completions specialists

• Fracturing (or fraccing) operators

• Class 1 drivers/operators to get equipment and materials to the well site

• Water and environmental management technicians and specialists

• 1st, 2nd and 3rd class steam engineers

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Industry Outlook – Services Sector Workforce Consideration

31

2006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920200

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

Alberta Services, E&P and Oil Sands Employment Outlook – Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario

Services E&P Oil sands

Nu

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Actual Projected

A healthy Services sector workforce is critical to the petroleum industry as a whole. Oil sands is increasing its reliance on the Services sector.


Industry Outlook Key Findings:

• Regardless of the pace of economic recovery, the petroleum industry will be challenged to meet its hiring requirements.

o Even though the industry’s workforce is projected to lose jobs in the low scenario.

• Labour shortages are not going away – regardless of scenario.

o Labour supply/demand gaps occur in all scenarios and begin as early as 2011 for some occupations.

o The petroleum industry is already experiencing chronic shortages for some occupations.

o Game changers such as unconventional natural gas, enhanced oil recovery and in-situ oil sands extraction have increased demand for certain occupations and created a need for new skills and knowledge.

o The industry will need to diversify the labour supply pools it hires from.

– Shortages of occupations unique to the industry will be a particular challenge because of limited labour supply opportunities.

• A healthy Services sector workforce is critical to the petroleum industry as a whole.

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The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020 - Sector Outlooks


Key Findings: Services Sector

• Instability in oil and gas prices creates the greatest hiring uncertainty for the Services sector.

o The trend towards supporting the Oil sands sector lessens the impact should low natural gas prices persist.

• Despite job losses in the low scenario, the industry will need to hire workers across all scenarios.

• Labour supply/demand gaps occur in all scenarios.

o Labour supply/demand gaps begin as early as 2011.

o By 2014 at the latest, the unemployment rate for field workers falls below 2007 levels.

• High turnover adds to the difficulty the sector will have maintaining its workforce because a single position may need to be filled over and over.

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Services Sector Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

35

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202060,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

110,000

120,000

130,000

140,000

129,849 (+57%)

87,812 (+6%)

82,931

79,997 (-3.5%)

Services Sector Employment Outlook to 2020


Nu

mb

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Actual Projected


Services Sector Hiring Requirements

36

Depending on the scenario, the Services sector will need to hire between 18,000 and 72,000 workers by 2020.

Low Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario

Growth Scenario-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

-2,9344,890

46,918

21,04221,334

25,123

Hiring Requirements for Services Sector 2010 - 2020


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Services Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario



• Oil and gas drilling and services field workers (15,551)

• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and services (4,471)

• Truck drivers (4,075)• Drilling coordinators/production managers

(3,745)• Heavy equipment operators (2,520)• Millwrights and machinists (2,188)• Welders (1,772)• Engineers - chemical, mechanical,

petroleum (1,628)• Geologists and geophysicists (1,516)• Operators - steam and non-steam (1,248)

• Environmental technicians (+109%)• Drilling coordinators/production

managers (+103%)• Geologists and geophysicists (+101%)• Landmen/purchasing agents (+99%)• Inspectors in public and environmental

health & safety (+98%)• Supervisors, petroleum and gas

processing (+96%)• Project/cost control engineers (+94%) • Petroleum/geological/mining

engineering technologists (+92%)• Industrial electricians (+92%)• Crane operators (+91%)

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Key Findings: Exploration and Production Sector

• E&P workforce growth requires higher gas prices in the medium and long-term.

o Age-related attrition is the key driver of hiring in the low and growth oil/low gas scenarios.

• Sector is building new gas plants.

o Increased requirement for steam-ticket plant operators and maintenance trades.

• The key labour supply/demand risks for the E&P sector are:

o Limited labour supply sources for petroleum industry-specific positions vacated due to age-related attrition; and

o The ongoing need for a knowledgeable and innovative workforce as the sector plans and executes technically challenging unconventional oil and gas plays.

38


E&P Sector Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

39

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 202050,000

55,000

60,000

65,000

70,000

75,000

80,000

85,000 81,958 (+21%)

55,958 (-15%)

66,74457,128 (-14%)

E&P Sector Employment Outlook to 2020


Nu

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Work

ers

Actual Projected


E&P Sector Hiring Requirements

40

Age-related attrition drives E&P hiring in both the low and growth oil/low gas scenarios.

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

-9,616 -10,786

15,21418,242 18,158

21,513

Hiring Requirements for E&P Sector 2010 - 2020


Nu

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E&P Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario



• Plant and field operators (4,012) • Engineers - chemical, mechanical,

petroleum (3,326)• Geologists and geophysicists (2,345)• Drilling coordinators/production managers

(2,067)• Technologists - chemical, mechanical,

petroleum (1,276)• Landmen/purchasing agents (920)• Heavy equipment operators (701)• Millwrights and machinists (531)• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service

(397)• Truck drivers (392)

• Drilling Coordinators/Production Managers (+123%)

• Landmen/Purchasing Agents (+105%) • Geologists and Geophysicists (+104%)• Project/Cost Control Engineers (+96%)• Drafting Technologists and Technicians

(+94%) • Industrial Electricians (+87%)• Technologists (Chemical, Mechanical,

Petroleum) (+87%) • Industrial Engineering Technologists

(+82%) • Civil Engineers (+79%) • Inspectors in Public and EH&S (+73%)

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Key Findings: Oil Sands Sector

• Oil sands employment increases regardless of scenario.

o The addition of hiring due to age-related attrition will put significant pressure on the sector.

• The shift towards in-situ technologies is changing the makeup of the oil sands workforce.

o Increased need for steam-ticketed operators and water treatment specialists.

o Increased requirement for petroleum industry-specific occupations such as petroleum engineers, SAGD/in-situ engineers, drilling coordinators etc.

o Growing reliance on the Services sector.

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Oil Sands Sector Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

43

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20205,000

7,000

9,000

11,000

13,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

12,269

22,921 (+87%)

17,699 (+44%)

Oil Sands Sector Employment Outlook to 2020

Growth Scenario Low Scenario

Nu

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Actual Projected


Oil Sands Sector Hiring Requirements

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Oil sands sector needs to hire workers regardless of scenario.

Low Scenario Growth Scenario0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

5,430

10,652

3,643

4,296

Hiring Requirements for Oil Sands Sector 2010 - 2020


Nu

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Oil Sands Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario



• Operators (steam and non-steam) (2,797)

• Heavy equipment operators (1,450)• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics (758)• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and

service (754)• Millwrights and machinists (702)• Industrial electricians (448)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (403)• Welders (392)• Drilling coordinators/production

managers (350)• Oil and gas drilling and services field

workers (341)


• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service (+162%)

• Geologists and geophysicists (+157%)• Mechanical engineering technologists

(+150%)• Chemical engineering technologists

(+147%)• Instrumentation engineering technologists


(+136%)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (+134%)• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics

(+131%)• Chemical engineers (+129%)

45


Key Findings: Pipeline Sector

• Pipeline sector could face significant hiring requirements.

o The combination of potential new projects on the horizon and hiring due to age-related attrition.

o Pipeline workforce has the oldest demographic in the industry.

o Competing with other petroleum sectors for workers.

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Pipeline Sector Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

47

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20207,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

11,000

12,000

13,000

8,900

12,160 (+37%)

11,201 (+26%)

9,305 (+5%)

Pipeline Sector Employment Outlook to 2020

Growth Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario Low Scenario

Nu

mb

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Wo

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Actual Projected


Low Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario

Growth Scenario0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

405

2,3013,2602,857

2,684

3,333

Hiring Requirements for Pipeline Sector 2010 - 2020


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Pipeline Sector Hiring Requirements

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Additions to the pipeline workforce is dependent on building new pipelines; however, hiring due to age-related attrition is significant for this sector.


Pipeline Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario



• Operators (steam and non-steam) (617)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (189)• Millwrights and machinists (158)• Industrial electricians (123)• Production clerks/production

accountants (116)• Mechanical engineers (101)• Instrumentation technicians (97)• Oil and gas drilling and services field

workers (87)• Landmen/purchasing agents (67)• Project/cost control engineers (62)


• Industrial engineering technologists (+81%)

• Inspectors in public and environmental health and safety (+81%)

• Landmen/purchasing agents (+79%)• Supervisors, petroleum and gas processing

(+75%)• Petroleum/geological/mining engineering

technologists (+75%)• Project/cost control engineers (+73%)• Industrial electricians (+73%)• Drafting technologists and technicians

(+71%)• Crane operators (+71%)

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The Decade Ahead: Labour Market Projections and Analysis for Canada’s Oil and Gas Industry to 2020 - Provincial Outlooks


Key Findings: British Columbia Outlook

• The labour market issues the BC oil and gas industry is currently facing will likely continue.

o Even in the low scenario, the oil and gas industry employment levels stay relatively flat and age-related attrition results in the need to hire approximately 3,000 workers.

• The Services sector is the province’s largest sector and will experience the most severe labour shortages.

o In the growth scenario, this sector will add approximately 6,500 BC-based jobs or 74% of its 2009 employment.

o New technology is driving the need for fraccing and completions operators.

o The sector has to contend with high turnover rates among its field workers.

• New gas plants will require steam-ticket operators and maintenance trades.

• Industry activity has put significant pressure on community resources and the local labour market.

o Increased industry activity is likely to further strain local housing, infrastructure and services. This could be a deterrent to attracting and retaining workers.

51


BC-based Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

52

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

21,285 (+53%)

13,875 13,479 (-3%)

BC-based Employment Outlook to 2020


Nu

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Actual Projected


Hiring Requirements for BC-based Employment

53

13,501

33,027

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

-395

7,409

3,305

3,919

Hiring Requirements for BC-based Employment 2010 2020


Nu

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Low Scenario Growth Scenario


BC-based Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario

Core Occupations With Greatest Hiring Requirements



• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service (915)

• Truck drivers (796)• Operators (steam and non-steam) (646)• Drilling coordinators/production

managers (566)• Millwrights and machinists (558)• Heavy equipment operators (547)• Welders (351)• Steamfitters and pipefitters (247)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (246)

• Quality assurance analysts (+148%) • Drilling coordinators/production

managers (+119%)• Geologists and geophysicists (+117%)• Inspectors in public and environmental

health and safety (+108%)• Landmen/purchasing agents (+108%)• Petroleum/mining/geological engineering

technologists (+106%)• Industrial engineering technologists


(+104%) • Petroleum/reservoir engineers (+100%)• Mechanical engineers (+99%)

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Key Findings: Alberta Outlook

• In all scenarios, labour supply will need to flow to Alberta either as permanent relocations or as mobile workers.

o Over 75% of industry’s hiring requirements are Alberta-based.

o Workforce attraction and development initiatives will need to target all potential labour supply including women, immigrants, Aboriginal Peoples, youth and mid-career transitioners.

• Alberta is home to many industry-specific occupations including drilling coordinators/production managers, geologists and geophysicists, and all types of engineers.

o Labour supply sources for these industry-specific occupations are limited and any reduction human resources programs targeting these occupations will jeopardize industry’s ability to fill these roles.

• Addressing Services sector workforce issues are key for the province given growing support to Oil sands sector.

55


Alberta-based Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

56

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

190,795 (+44%)

132,533

145,051 (+9%)

Alberta-based Employment Outlook to 2020


Nu

mb

er

of

Wo

rkers

Actual Projected

127,645 (-4%)


Hiring Requirements for Alberta-based Employment

57

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

-4,888 12,255

58,04337,694

38,498

44,292

Hiring Requirements for Alberta-based Employment 2010 - 2020


Nu

mb

er

of

Po

sit

ion

s

Low Scenario Growth Oil/Low Gas Scenario Growth Sce-nario


Alberta-based Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario



• Oil and gas drilling and services field workers (11,292)

• Operators (steam and non-steam) (5,492) • Drilling coordinators/production

managers (4,911) • Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and

service (4,348)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (3,746) • Heavy equipment operators (3,551)• Geologists and geophysicists (3,381) • Truck drivers (3,088)• Millwrights and machinists (2,550) • Petroleum/geological/Mining engineering

technologists (1,718)


• Landmen/purchasing agents (+99%)• Geologists and geophysicists (+99%)• Mining engineers (+99%)• Industrial electricians (+98%)• Heavy-duty equipment mechanics


(+91%)• Petroleum/geological/Mining engineering

technologists (+90%)• Industrial engineering technologists

(+90%)• Project/cost control engineers (+89%)

58


Key Findings: Saskatchewan Outlook

• The province’s greatest workforce issues align with those of the Services sector.

o Services sector is the province’s largest sector and will experience the most severe labour shortages.

o In the growth scenario, this sector will need to fill approximately 6,000 SK-based jobs – 91% of industry’s projected hiring requirements.

o New technology is driving the need for fracing and completions operators.

o The sector has to contend with high turnover rates among its field workers.

• Saskatchewan has a long history of providing labour supply to the oil and gas industry.

o Increased activity and age-related attrition is an opportunity to retain secondary and post-secondary grads in the province.

• Industry activity has put significant pressure on community resources and the local labour market.

o Increased industry activity is likely to further strain local housing, infrastructure and services. This could be a deterrent to attracting and retaining workers.

59


Saskatchewan-based Hiring Due to Industry Activity Levels

60

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1600014,721 (+38%)

10,657 9,908 (-7%)

Saskatchewan-based Employment Outlook to 2020


Nu

mb

er

of

Wo

rke

rs

Actual Projected


Hiring Requirements for Saskatchewan-based Employment

61

-2,000

-1,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

-788

4,064

2,139

2,541

Hiring Requirements for Saskatchewan-based Employment 2010-2020


Nu

mb

er

of

Po

sit

ion

s

Low Scenario Growth Scenario


Saskatchewan-based Occupations with Greatest Hiring Requirements in Growth Scenario




• Supervisors, oil and gas drilling and service (577)

• Operators (steam and non-steam) (493)• Truck drivers (464)• Heavy equipment operators (343)• Drilling coordinators/production

managers (329)• Millwrights and machinists (307)• Welders (208)• Steamfitters and pipefitters (150)• Petroleum/reservoir engineers (147)


• Geologists and geophysicists (+99%) • Petroleum/mining/geological engineering

technologists (+91%)• Inspectors in public and environmental,

health & safety (+90%) • Landmen/purchasing agents (+89%) • Industrial electricians (+86%) • Drafting technologists and technicians

(+85%) • Petroleum/reservoir engineers (+84%) • Instrumentation engineering

technologists (+82%)

62


Rest of Canada

• Canada has vast oil and gas resources and the industry is already active in 12 of 13 provinces and territories.

o Nunavut is the only jurisdiction in Canada that does not currently have any petroleum production.

• In 2009, the Offshore sector employed approximately 3,200 workers.

o East Coast offshore industry will add approximately 1,000 jobs this decade.

– Two new offshore projects – Deep Panuke (2011) and Hebron (2017).

o Approximately 1,000 positions will need to be hired due to age-related attrition.

o Hiring for offshore marine support will also be required.

• Oil and gas employment in Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Yukon, Northwest Territories and onshore Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador was approximately 5,600 jobs in 2009.

• Recent advancements in technology make unlocking additional oil and gas reserves across Canada very possible.

63


Summary of Findings

• Regardless of the pace of economic recovery, the petroleum industry will be challenged to meet its hiring requirements.

• Labour shortages are not going away – regardless of scenario.

o The petroleum industry is already experiencing chronic labour shortages for some occupations.

o Game changers such as unconventional natural gas, enhanced oil recovery and in-situ oil sands extraction have increased demand for certain occupations and created a need for new skills and knowledge.

• The industry does not have a decade to address labour shortages.

o Labour shortages across all core occupations occur as early as 2013.

• A healthy Services sector workforce is critical to the petroleum industry as a whole.

64


Industry Workforce Considerations

Labour supply to ensure sustainable expansion of Canada’s petroleum industry will

take diversification, development, collaboration and investment. Key considerations for

addressing industry-wide labour supply/demand gaps include:

• Effective communication of industry’s workforce requirements to labour supply stakeholders.

• Drawing talent from diverse labour supply pools while continuing to attract traditional labour pools such as new graduates.

• Capacity building within the petroleum workforce.

• Managing labour costs while addressing labour shortages.

• Increased collaboration on workforce solutions within the industry and with other stakeholders.

The new reality is that labour supply is not unlike oil supply – the readily available sources are gone.

65

The Decade Ahead 2010 2020 Labour Market Projections and Analysis

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