The CAP reform process in perspective: The CAP reform process in perspective: issues of the post-2013 debate issues of the post-2013 debate Carina Folkeson Directorate for Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG for Agriculture and Rural Development European Commission
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The CAP reform process in perspective: issues of the post-2013 debate Carina Folkeson Directorate for Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations DG.
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The CAP reform process in perspective:The CAP reform process in perspective:issues of the post-2013 debateissues of the post-2013 debate
Carina Folkeson
Directorate for Economic Analysis, Perspectives and Evaluations
DG for Agriculture and Rural Development
European Commission
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 2
The long-term CAP perspectiveThe long-term CAP perspective
The general context of the CAP debate– The question about “P” in the CAP
– The question about the "C" in the CAP
– The debate about the two pillar structure of the CAP
The post HC context of the CAP debate– Volatility in agricultural production and prices
– Impact of the economic crisis on agriculture
– Food security in the context of climate change and limited resources
The institutional context of the CAP debate – New European Parliament and Commission
– Lisbon Treaty
– WTO prospects
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 3
BudgetBudget
Economiccrisis
Economiccrisis
ClimatechangeClimatechange
The CAP debate at a glanceThe CAP debate at a glance
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 4
Different regional impacts from Different regional impacts from Climate Change Climate Change
Warming water availability drought risk yields suitable crop areas
floods hotter and drier summers summer drought forage sea levels
floods hotter and drier summers crop yields, range forage sea levels
winter rainfall (floods) summer rainfall drought, water stress Soil erosion yields, range of crops
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 5
BudgetBudget
Economiccrisis
Economiccrisis
ClimatechangeClimatechange
The CAP debate at a glanceThe CAP debate at a glance
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 6
( Index 2000 = 100 )
60
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1980
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1989
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1991
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2000
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EU-15
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
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200
EU-12
EU developments in agricultural incomeEU developments in agricultural income (agricultural income/AWU in real terms)(agricultural income/AWU in real terms)
Source: Eurostat
EU-15
EU-12
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 7
Evolution of agricultural income as a share ofEvolution of agricultural income as a share ofaverage income in the economyaverage income in the economy
Source: European Commission - DG Agriculture and Rural Development, based on Eurostat data on national and agricultural accounts.
*EU-15 average calculated with: EL, ES, FR, IT, NL, AT, PT; EU-10 average calculated with: CZ, EE, HU, PL, SK; EU-25 average = EU-15 + EU-10 countries.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
EU-25 average* EU-15 average* EU-10 average*
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 8
BudgetBudget
Economiccrisis
Economiccrisis
ClimatechangeClimatechange
The CAP debate at a glanceThe CAP debate at a glance
C. Folkeson CAP perspectives 9
CAP budget trends in perspectiveCAP budget trends in perspective