The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll In partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University September 23, 2020 Contents Vote choice in 2020 ............................................. 3 Presidential and gubernatorial approval ................................. 17 Media use .................................................. 25 Society and culture ............................................. 34 Racial issues ................................................ 39 1
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The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes Poll final-1.pdf · Q7.1 Isyouropinionofthefollowingpublicfiguresfavorableorunfavorable? -DonaldTrump Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc. Favorable
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The Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes PollIn partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University
The Baldwin Wallace University Ohio Poll was conducted between 9/8/20 and 9/22/20 in partnership withOakland University (Michigan) and Ohio Northern University.
The survey was conducted online among likely voters in Michigan (n = 1001), Ohio (n = 1011), Pennsylvania(n = 1012), and Wisconsin (n = 863) using Qualtrics, an online sample aggregator. Sampled individuals wereemailed by Qualtrics and responded using a personalized link to the survey.
The survey included quotas for age and gender for each state. The quota for age was based on the 2016Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey. The quota for gender was based ondata from the 2017 American Community Survey. The survey also included quotas for central metro areasand fringe metro areas at the county level based on data from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 NationalCenter for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties.
The survey results for all states are weighted by gender, education, race/ethnicity, and annual householdincome to be representative of each state’s population. In this survey, the design factors were: 1.17 (Michigan),1.07 (Ohio), 1.15 (Pennsylvania), 1.11 (Wisconsin). The overall margins of error were: ±3.6% (Michigan),±3.3% (Ohio), ±3.6% (Pennsylvania), ±3.7% (Wisconsin). For all states, the sample sizes and margins oferror are applicable only to overall results, indicated by highlighted columns in the following tables. Columnswithout highlighting refer either to demographic subgroups or to questions asked only of subgroups ofrespondents; consequently, such columns necessarily have a higher margin of error. Total column percentagesmay not add to 100% due to rounding error.
This project was funded by Baldwin Wallace University’s Community Research Institute, Oakland University(Michigan), and Ohio Northern University.
(This question reflects responses from those who indicated in Q1 that they intended to votefor Joe Biden.)Which of the following statements best describes your support for Joe Biden right now?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.My mind is made up 91.6 87.6 89.8 93.4I might change my mind 7.9 10.1 9.4 6.4I’ll probably change my mind 0.5 2.2 0.7 0.2
Margin of error (applicable only to this page): ±5.5%
5
Q3
(This question reflects responses from those who indicated in Q1 that they intended to votefor Donald Trump.)Which of the following statements best describes your support for Donald Trump right now?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.My mind is made up 87.4 86.3 89.6 83.3I might change my mind 10.1 12.6 8.7 14.7I’ll probably change my mind 2.5 1.1 1.7 1.9
Margin of error (applicable only to this page): ±6.5%
6
Q4
Have the demonstrations against police violence that followed the killing of George Floyd in police custodymade you more likely to vote for Donald Trump, more likely to vote for Joe Biden, or have they not affectedyour vote choice?
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndJoe Biden 33.3 31.2 35.3 62.7 5.4 25.1Donald Trump 27.1 34.1 20.4 2.2 57.0 23.1Have not affected vote choice 37.3 33.1 41.2 33.9 36.5 45.0Unsure 2.4 1.7 3.1 1.2 1.1 6.8
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndJoe Biden 28.7 26.7 30.4 58.5 3.7 22.2Donald Trump 27.1 31.5 22.9 4.5 54.4 17.8Have not affected vote choice 41.1 38.7 43.6 34.3 40.8 52.7Unsure 3.1 3.2 3.0 2.6 1.0 7.3
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndJoe Biden 31.0 27.1 34.7 59.4 4.8 21.9Donald Trump 31.6 39.1 24.7 4.8 61.4 26.1Have not affected vote choice 33.9 31.4 36.5 32.3 31.8 44.7Unsure 3.4 2.4 4.1 3.5 2.0 7.3
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndJoe Biden 28.1 26.1 29.7 51.7 3.0 25.9Donald Trump 25.0 30.9 19.5 2.3 53.7 19.2Have not affected vote choice 44.1 41.4 46.8 43.1 41.3 51.2Unsure 2.8 1.6 4.0 2.9 2.1 3.7
7
Q5
(Note: asked only of Michigan respondents)If the election for the U.S. Senate were held today, would you be more likely to vote for Democrat GaryPeters or Republican John James?
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndJohn James, Republican 41.4 46.4 36.5 4.9 83.2 38.9Gary Peters, Democrat 45.6 44.9 46.3 86.6 6.9 34.1Unsure 13.0 8.7 17.2 8.5 9.9 27.0
8
Q6
If the election for the U.S. House of Representatives were today, would you vote for the Republican orDemocratic candidate in your congressional district?
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndFavorable 43.2 39.3 47 77.6 9.7 35.1Unfavorable 41.3 45.7 37 7.8 77.0 43.8Unsure 15.5 15.0 16 14.6 13.3 21.1
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndFavorable 40.0 39.5 40.2 79.5 6.5 31.9Unfavorable 45.2 47.8 42.9 8.0 81.9 44.2Unsure 14.8 12.7 16.9 12.5 11.6 23.8
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndFavorable 39.6 37.5 41.5 71.3 9.8 31.0Unfavorable 44.0 49.2 39.4 11.9 78.5 40.6Unsure 16.4 13.3 19.1 16.8 11.7 28.4
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndFavorable 44.5 39.3 49.7 80.6 7.6 38.3Unfavorable 41.2 47.8 35.1 6.7 81.5 38.2Unsure 14.3 12.9 15.2 12.7 10.9 23.5
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Q8
In light of the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic, how do you plan to vote in the election this November?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.In person on Election Day 43.3 46.1 57.7 45.6In person early, before Election Day 3.6 8.5 3.1 9.1By mail or absentee ballot 48.9 41.9 33.5 40.6Unsure 4.2 3.5 5.7 4.7
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndIn person on Election Day 43.3 48.4 38.3 27.0 65.9 35.6In person early, before Election Day 3.6 3.7 3.5 4.5 3.3 2.4By mail or absentee ballot 48.9 44.8 52.9 64.7 27.9 54.8Unsure 4.2 3.1 5.3 3.8 2.8 7.2
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndIn person on Election Day 46.1 50.5 42.0 29.6 63.3 44.0In person early, before Election Day 8.5 8.2 8.8 10.5 7.2 7.5By mail or absentee ballot 41.9 38.7 44.7 56.1 27.4 43.0Unsure 3.5 2.6 4.4 3.7 2.2 5.5
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndIn person on Election Day 57.7 60.3 55.3 42.7 74.7 53.4In person early, before Election Day 3.1 4.1 2.2 1.8 4.3 3.7By mail or absentee ballot 33.5 30.7 36.5 48.2 19.5 30.1Unsure 5.7 4.9 6.0 7.3 1.4 12.7
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndIn person on Election Day 45.6 49.2 42.3 30.1 63.2 44.9In person early, before Election Day 9.1 9.4 8.7 10.8 6.7 10.2By mail or absentee ballot 40.6 36.7 44.2 53.8 27.3 37.8Unsure 4.7 4.7 4.8 5.3 2.8 7.1
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Q9
Are you confident that your vote will count towards the outcome of the 2020 US presidential election?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Very confident 56.5 51.5 49.9 56.1Somewhat confident 31.8 35.9 40.1 32.3Not very confident 8.9 9.4 7.9 9.9Not at all confident 2.8 3.2 2.0 1.7
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndVery confident 56.5 62.4 50.8 58.7 59.4 47.4Somewhat confident 31.8 28.5 35.0 29.4 32.6 34.9Not very confident 8.9 7.2 10.5 10.5 4.8 12.7Not at all confident 2.8 1.9 3.7 1.3 3.3 5.0
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndVery confident 51.5 61.5 42.0 51.0 57.7 42.0Somewhat confident 35.9 29.6 41.9 37.2 32.5 39.5Not very confident 9.4 6.2 12.3 8.9 7.8 12.8Not at all confident 3.2 2.7 3.8 2.9 2.1 5.8
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndVery confident 49.9 55.1 45.4 48.2 57.0 35.1Somewhat confident 40.1 34.8 44.8 41.8 34.4 51.2Not very confident 7.9 7.2 8.5 9.1 6.8 7.3Not at all confident 2.0 2.9 1.3 0.8 1.7 6.5
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndVery confident 56.1 58.6 53.6 50.0 63.0 55.8Somewhat confident 32.3 29.6 34.9 34.4 29.5 33.3Not very confident 9.9 10.8 9.0 12.7 7.1 9.2Not at all confident 1.7 0.9 2.5 2.9 0.4 1.7
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Q10
Do you believe presidential elections should be decided by the national popular vote or by the currentElectoral College system?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Electoral College 28.0 32.1 28.6 29.7National popular vote 56.6 51.9 53.2 55.8Unsure 15.5 16.0 18.1 14.5
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndElectoral College 28.0 37.8 18.4 7.4 49.7 29.7National popular vote 56.6 51.4 61.6 80.5 34.7 48.7Unsure 15.5 10.8 20.0 12.2 15.6 21.6
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndElectoral College 32.1 42.1 22.6 10.2 56.3 27.3National popular vote 51.9 48.6 55.0 76.0 27.4 53.9Unsure 16.0 9.3 22.4 13.8 16.4 18.8
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndElectoral College 28.6 37.3 20.6 11.6 46.8 27.4National popular vote 53.2 50.8 55.6 70.3 36.5 50.4Unsure 18.1 11.9 23.8 18.1 16.7 22.2
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndElectoral College 29.7 38.7 20.9 9.1 50.7 33.4National popular vote 55.8 51.9 59.5 78.0 34.4 49.9Unsure 14.5 9.4 19.6 12.9 14.9 16.7
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Presidential and gubernatorial approvalQ11
Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump is handling his job as President?
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly approve 57.8 52.9 62.7 79.2 31.8 61.8Somewhat approve 18.0 20.9 15.1 11.7 23.8 20.2Somewhat disapprove 11.0 10.3 11.6 6.2 17.9 8.1Strongly disapprove 13.2 15.8 10.7 2.9 26.5 9.9
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly approve 55.8 55.7 55.8 72.7 39.4 55.8Somewhat approve 22.6 23.8 21.4 16.8 25.3 27.5Somewhat disapprove 10.4 9.2 11.7 6.0 16.9 6.8Strongly disapprove 11.2 11.3 11.1 4.5 18.4 9.9
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly approve 57.7 52.6 62.3 76.8 35.7 64.0Somewhat approve 21.4 24.6 18.5 17.0 28.9 13.1Somewhat disapprove 9.2 9.4 9.1 4.0 14.7 9.0Strongly disapprove 11.7 13.4 10.2 2.2 20.7 14.0
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly approve 52.6 45.3 59.8 77.1 24.5 54.1Somewhat approve 22.2 24.7 19.6 17.5 27.1 22.6Somewhat disapprove 10.7 13.6 7.9 3.7 17.3 12.8Strongly disapprove 14.5 16.4 12.7 1.6 31.1 10.5
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Q18
If a safe and effective vaccine to prevent coronavirus/COVID-19 became available this year, would you. . .
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.Get one as soon as possible 23.6 24.9 29.0 24.7Consider one, but wait to see what happenedto others
58.5 55.7 51.5 59.0
Never get one 18.0 19.3 19.5 16.3
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndGet one as soon as possible 23.6 31.4 16.0 26.3 24.9 16.2Consider one, but wait to see what happenedto others
58.5 52.5 64.2 64.9 47.4 65.1
Never get one 18.0 16.1 19.9 8.8 27.7 18.7
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndGet one as soon as possible 24.9 36.4 14.0 24.5 24.7 26.1Consider one, but wait to see what happenedto others
55.7 51.4 59.9 61.0 52.0 53.4
Never get one 19.3 12.2 26.1 14.5 23.4 20.5
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndGet one as soon as possible 29.0 37.8 20.4 30.7 27.1 29.3Consider one, but wait to see what happenedto others
51.5 46.8 56.0 58.2 42.2 57.8
Never get one 19.5 15.4 23.6 11.1 30.7 12.9
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndGet one as soon as possible 24.7 29.4 20.0 29.8 21.6 20.1Consider one, but wait to see what happenedto others
59.0 56.6 61.3 63.0 50.3 66.8
Never get one 16.3 14.0 18.7 7.2 28.2 13.2
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Media useQ19.1
How often do you use the following outlets to get information about the presidential campaign? - Facebook
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndOften 19.7 23.1 16.3 24.4 18.5 12.8Sometimes 27.3 28.3 26.5 25.8 26.8 31.1Rarely 17.0 16.0 18.0 16.4 17.1 17.9Never 36.0 32.5 39.3 33.4 37.6 38.1
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndOften 24.4 24.9 24.1 27.8 23.0 21.5Sometimes 28.0 30.9 25.3 26.4 30.0 27.2Rarely 17.0 18.7 15.4 14.7 16.7 21.2Never 30.6 25.6 35.2 31.1 30.4 30.1
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndOften 23.6 28.2 19.4 23.0 23.8 24.8Sometimes 26.9 26.2 27.9 26.1 28.2 25.8Rarely 17.4 18.5 16.2 17.7 17.9 15.4Never 32.0 27.1 36.6 33.1 30.2 34.0
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndOften 22.9 23.1 23.0 28.6 16.7 22.7Sometimes 28.2 28.8 27.8 29.0 27.1 28.5Rarely 20.1 19.3 20.7 16.4 22.7 22.8Never 28.8 28.9 28.5 26.1 33.4 26.0
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Q20
In general, how much do you trust the news and information you get from the mass media about thepresidential campaign?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.A great deal 13.6 13.1 12.6 13.2Somewhat 41.0 38.6 39.8 39.1Not too much 28.2 27.2 27.0 27.2Not at all 17.2 21.2 20.6 20.5
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 13.6 14.8 12.4 23.8 5.4 8.5Somewhat 41.0 40.4 41.7 53.1 27.7 40.8Not too much 28.2 25.5 30.7 21.2 36.7 26.9Not at all 17.2 19.2 15.2 2.0 30.2 23.8
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 13.1 16.1 10.0 20.6 7.1 10.9Somewhat 38.6 37.2 40.0 52.2 25.0 39.2Not too much 27.2 24.6 29.6 20.2 32.5 29.6Not at all 21.2 22.1 20.3 7.0 35.3 20.4
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 12.6 17.3 8.1 16.0 9.3 11.8Somewhat 39.8 38.2 41.2 55.6 25.3 34.6Not too much 27.0 23.9 29.8 23.5 31.6 24.6Not at all 20.6 20.6 20.8 4.9 33.9 29.0
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 13.2 14.5 12.0 22.0 5.2 9.7Somewhat 39.1 33.9 44.2 52.5 23.8 39.6Not too much 27.2 28.3 25.9 18.5 37.4 26.6Not at all 20.5 23.3 17.9 6.9 33.7 24.2
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Q21
In general, how much do you trust the news you get about the presidential campaign from your media outletof choice?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.A great deal 23.1 22.2 22.9 22.7Somewhat 48.7 43.8 45.9 47.2Not too much 19.7 22.3 20.5 22.0Not at all 8.5 11.7 10.6 8.1
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 23.1 26.1 20.2 34.2 15.4 15.1Somewhat 48.7 47.6 49.8 51.1 47.4 46.1Not too much 19.7 18.0 21.2 13.5 24.1 23.9Not at all 8.5 8.3 8.8 1.2 13.0 14.8
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 22.2 27.3 17.1 30.8 15.2 19.9Somewhat 43.8 42.5 45.2 47.8 41.1 41.9Not too much 22.3 18.3 26.1 15.6 28.9 22.1Not at all 11.7 11.9 11.6 5.8 14.9 16.1
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 22.9 27.6 18.4 26.5 20.7 18.9Somewhat 45.9 43.5 48.5 52.9 39.1 44.8Not too much 20.5 17.4 23.2 15.9 26.0 18.6Not at all 10.6 11.5 9.9 4.6 14.2 17.7
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA great deal 22.7 24.6 20.9 32.1 16.1 15.3Somewhat 47.2 47.1 47.2 50.6 41.2 51.5Not too much 22.0 20.9 23.0 14.3 29.5 24.2Not at all 8.1 7.3 8.9 3.0 13.3 9.0
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Q22
To what extent do you think social media use has increased the risk that foreign powers might interfere inthe presidential elections, if at all?
Response Mich. Ohio Penn. Wisc.A greal deal 33.2 33.6 31.5 35.6Somewhat 36.4 35.8 35.4 34.9Not too much 13.2 11.4 13.5 13.0Not at all 5.1 7.0 5.9 6.4Unsure 12.2 12.1 13.8 10.1
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA greal deal 33.2 35.4 31.0 39.6 26.7 32.2Somewhat 36.4 37.8 35.1 33.7 39.6 36.0Not too much 13.2 13.4 12.8 11.2 16.4 11.4Not at all 5.1 4.6 5.5 2.5 5.9 8.6Unsure 12.2 8.8 15.5 13.1 11.5 11.9
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA greal deal 33.6 39.4 28.1 45.3 24.8 29.4Somewhat 35.8 32.2 39.5 31.8 38.9 37.3Not too much 11.4 10.6 12.3 7.0 14.4 13.6Not at all 7.0 8.4 5.5 4.8 8.1 8.5Unsure 12.1 9.4 14.5 11.1 13.7 11.2
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA greal deal 31.5 37.3 26.2 37.7 24.7 32.3Somewhat 35.4 31.0 39.1 36.9 35.9 29.4Not too much 13.5 13.6 13.5 10.1 16.1 15.9Not at all 5.9 6.4 5.4 1.8 9.6 7.2Unsure 13.8 11.7 15.8 13.5 13.7 15.2
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndA greal deal 35.6 36.7 34.1 45.0 26.2 33.7Somewhat 34.9 36.1 33.9 30.1 39.5 36.3Not too much 13.0 14.3 11.5 10.9 16.6 10.6Not at all 6.4 7.1 5.9 3.1 9.2 8.4Unsure 10.1 5.7 14.6 11.0 8.5 11.1
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Q23
Do you approve or disapprove of social media sites’ decision to flag or delete users’ posts if they contain falseor misleading information about the presidential election?
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 23.0 24.0 22.0 22.5 25.2 20.0Somewhat agree 39.9 37.2 42.5 41.6 36.5 42.7Somewhat disagree 15.9 16.3 15.6 14.2 15.5 20.0Strongly disagree 17.6 19.1 16.2 17.8 19.8 13.6Unsure 3.6 3.5 3.7 4.0 3.0 3.7
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 23.3 20.4 25.9 21.0 23.6 26.5Somewhat agree 41.6 42.1 41.2 41.7 41.8 41.1Somewhat disagree 14.8 17.4 12.3 17.2 14.1 11.8Strongly disagree 16.8 16.9 16.6 17.3 16.7 16.0Unsure 3.6 3.2 4.1 2.9 3.8 4.5
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 22.7 21.7 23.3 20.9 24.5 22.9Somewhat agree 37.0 36.8 37.2 37.9 36.6 35.7Somewhat disagree 18.4 18.6 18.4 21.5 15.0 19.2Strongly disagree 17.3 19.3 15.6 15.9 19.6 15.3Unsure 4.5 3.6 5.4 3.9 4.3 6.9
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 20.9 17.2 24.4 19.9 24.4 16.6Somewhat agree 43.0 41.5 44.5 43.8 40.9 45.0Somewhat disagree 18.3 21.0 15.6 17.5 18.0 20.6Strongly disagree 14.7 16.9 12.7 15.7 13.8 14.5Unsure 3.1 3.4 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.4
38
Racial issuesQ29
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “Society doesn’t understand thechallenges faced by whites living in rural communities today.”
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 10.2 13.2 7.3 6.0 15.3 9.4Somewhat agree 20.6 24.9 16.5 10.3 33.8 17.6Somewhat disagree 27.9 27.1 28.7 20.4 32.5 34.5Strongly disagree 41.2 34.8 47.5 63.3 18.4 38.5
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 10.8 14.3 7.4 4.4 18.6 7.9Somewhat agree 21.7 24.4 19.2 11.0 31.9 22.1Somewhat disagree 29.1 29.0 29.2 25.6 34.3 25.9Strongly disagree 38.4 32.3 44.2 58.9 15.3 44.1
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 10.6 15.2 6.3 1.3 20.0 11.3Somewhat agree 20.6 24.1 17.5 10.8 32.3 16.6Somewhat disagree 27.9 29.3 26.7 23.7 29.8 34.4Strongly disagree 40.9 31.4 49.5 64.2 17.9 37.7
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 7.7 9.4 6.2 2.6 12.6 9.3Somewhat agree 20.5 25.8 15.5 6.7 36.0 20.4Somewhat disagree 30.9 30.4 31.3 25.4 37.4 30.3Strongly disagree 40.8 34.5 47.0 65.3 14.0 40.0
40
Q31
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statement? “White people in the U.S. have certainadvantages because of the color of their skin.”
Michigan Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 29.8 25.7 33.7 50.1 9.2 26.5Somewhat agree 33.7 35.1 32.4 33.9 33.8 33.3Somewhat disagree 18.0 19.7 16.3 10.0 24.6 22.0Strongly disagree 18.5 19.5 17.6 6.0 32.4 18.2
Ohio Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 24.3 22.4 25.7 44.2 6.3 21.8Somewhat agree 32.2 32.9 31.5 35.5 27.4 34.8Somewhat disagree 20.6 19.7 21.6 11.6 28.6 21.9Strongly disagree 22.9 24.9 21.1 8.7 37.6 21.4
Pennsylvania Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 26.1 21.3 30.1 44.5 7.7 24.1Somewhat agree 33.8 35.5 32.5 37.6 27.6 40.1Somewhat disagree 20.3 20.5 20.3 12.3 29.7 17.1Strongly disagree 19.8 22.7 17.2 5.6 35.0 18.7
Wisconsin Gender Party IDResponse All M F Dem Rep IndStrongly agree 27.2 24.8 29.4 46.9 7.8 22.6Somewhat agree 34.5 33.5 35.9 32.7 34.5 38.3Somewhat disagree 19.7 20.6 18.9 9.9 29.4 22.0Strongly disagree 18.5 21.1 15.8 10.5 28.3 17.0
41
Methodological notes
Baldwin Wallace University’s Ohio Poll, in partnership with Oakland University (Michigan) and OhioNorthern University, was conducted between 9/8/20 and 9/22/20.
Survey RespondentsThe survey was conducted online among likely voters in Michigan (n = 1001), Ohio (n = 1011), Pennsylvania(n = 1012), and Wisconsin (n = 863) using Qualtrics, an online sample aggregator. Sampled individuals wereemailed by Qualtrics and responded using a personalized link to the survey.
To achieve a representative sample, Qualtrics panel partners randomly select respondents for surveys whererespondents are highly likely to qualify. Each sample from the panel base is proportioned to the generalpopulation and then randomized before the survey is deployed. Potential respondents receive an emailinvitation to participate, which informs them that the survey is for research purposes only, how long thesurvey is expected to take, and what incentives are available. Incentives include cash, airline miles, gift cards,redeemable points, sweepstakes entries, and vouchers. To avoid self-selection bias, the survey invitation doesnot include specific details about the contents of the survey.
The survey included quotas for age and gender for each state. The quota for age was based on the 2016Voting and Registration Supplement to the Current Population Survey. The quota for gender was based ondata from the 2017 American Community Survey. The survey also included quotas for central metro areasand fringe metro areas at the county level based on data from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 NationalCenter for Health Statistics’ (NCHS) Urban-Rural Classification Scheme for Counties.
Responses in this survey were weighted by gender, race/ethnicity, annual household income, and education tobe representative of each state’s population. Weights of individual respondents were capped. The margin oferror was computed using an adjustment of the classical Central Limit Theorem margin of error associated torandom samples. Specifically, the margin of error (computed at a 95% confidence level) was inflated relativeto the ordinary calculation by a factor of
√1 + cv(weights)2, where cv denotes the coefficient of variation. In
this survey, the design factors were: 1.17 (Michigan), 1.07 (Ohio), 1.15 (Pennsylvania), 1.11 (Wisconsin). Theoverall margins of error were: ±3.6% (Michigan), ±3.3% (Ohio), ±3.6% (Pennsylvania), ±3.7% (Wisconsin).1.07. The overall margin of error was ±3.3%. This margin of error assumes that the weighted estimates areapproximately unbiased. This assumption implicitly relies on the assertion that any differences between thesurvey sample and the target population on key survey outcomes are corrected by demographic raking. Noanalysis was conducted to validate that assertion.
The sample size and margin of error are applicable only to overall results, indicated by highlighted columnsin the preceding tables. Columns without highlighting refer either to demographic subgroups or to questionsasked only of subgroups of respondents; consequently, such columns necessarily have a higher margin of error.Total column percentages may not add to 100% due to rounding error.
The survey was funded by Baldwin Wallace University’s Community Research Institute, Oakland University(Michigan), and Ohio Northern University.
Quality ChecksTo encourage respondents to provide thoughtful answers, we included the following question towards thebeginning of the survey: “We care about the quality of our survey data and hope to receive the most accuratemeasures of your opinions, so it is important to us that you thoughtfully provide your best answer to eachquestion in the survey. Do you commit to providing your thoughtful and honest answers to the questions inthis survey?” Respondents who did not select “I will provide my best answers” were not allowed to continuewith the survey. The survey also included a speeding check, measured as one-half the median soft launchtime to complete the survey.
Randomized Response OptionsThroughout the survey, we randomized the order in which responses appeared to minimize response-orderbias. For Q1, Q4, Q5, and Q6, we randomized the order in which the candidates appeared. For Q7.1, Q7.2,
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Q7.3, and Q7.4, we randomized the order in which public figures appeared. For Q10 we randomized the orderof “Electoral College” and “National popular vote.”
Additional Information about Quotas for Central Metro Areas and Fringe Metro AreasTo ensure that urban respondents were not overrepresented and that rural areas were not underrepresented, weinstituted quotas for large central metro areas and large fringe metro areas. To do so, we utilized populationdata at the county level from the U.S. Census, as well as the 2013 NCHS’ Urban-Rural Classification Schemefor Counties.
In Michigan, the NCHS classified Wayne County and Kent County as central metro areas. The Detroit fringemetro area included Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, and St. Clair counties. The Grand Rapids fringemetro area included Barry, Montcalm, and Ottawa counties.
In Ohio, the NCHS classified Cuyahoga County, Franklin County, and Hamilton County as central metroareas. The Cleveland fringe metro area included Geauga, Lake, Lorain, and Medina counties. The Cincinnatifringe metro area included Brown, Butler, Clermont, and Warren counties. The Columbus fringe metro areaincluded Delaware, Fairfield, Hocking, Licking, Madison, Morrow, Perry, Pickaway, and Union counties.
In Pennsylvania, the NCHS classified Philadelphia County and Allegheny County as large central metro areas.The Pittsburgh fringe metro area included Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Fayette, Washington, and Westmorelandcounties. The Philadelphia fringe metro area included Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery counties.
In Wisconsin, the NCHS classified Milwaukee as a large central metro area. The Milwaukee fringe metro areaincluded Ozaukee, Washington, and Waukesha counties.
Age n % (raw) % (wtd)18 to 24 years 65 6.5 6.725 to 34 years 147 14.7 14.535 to 44 years 137 13.7 14.445 to 64 years 422 42.2 41.665 years or older 230 23.0 22.8
Party ID** n % (raw) % (wtd)Democrat 409 40.9 41.2Republican 365 36.5 37.2Independent 227 22.7 21.6
* This category includes, but is not limited to: Asian or Asian-American, Hispanic or Latino, Middle Eastern, Mixed Race or Multi-racial, Native American.
** Party ID was not used as a weighting characteristic.
Age n % (raw) % (wtd)18 to 24 years 79 7.8 7.925 to 34 years 139 13.7 13.035 to 44 years 156 15.4 15.145 to 64 years 391 38.7 38.665 years or older 246 24.3 25.4
Party ID** n % (raw) % (wtd)Democrat 383 37.9 37.7Republican 392 38.8 39.0Independent 236 23.3 23.3
* This category includes, but is not limited to: Asian or Asian-American, Hispanic or Latino, Middle Eastern, Mixed Race or Multi-racial, Native American.
** Party ID was not used as a weighting characteristic.
Age n % (raw) % (wtd)18 to 24 years 98 9.7 9.725 to 34 years 144 14.2 13.535 to 44 years 146 14.4 14.945 to 64 years 384 37.9 38.365 years or older 240 23.7 23.6
Party ID** n % (raw) % (wtd)Democrat 434 42.9 43.3Republican 421 41.6 41.7Independent 157 15.5 15.0
* This category includes, but is not limited to: Asian or Asian-American, Hispanic or Latino, Middle Eastern, Mixed Race or Multi-racial, Native American.
** Party ID was not used as a weighting characteristic.
Age n % (raw) % (wtd)18 to 24 years 77 8.9 7.725 to 34 years 103 11.9 11.635 to 44 years 155 18.0 17.945 to 64 years 330 38.2 38.665 years or older 198 22.9 24.2
Party ID** n % (raw) % (wtd)Democrat 373 43.2 41.9Republican 301 34.9 37.6Independent 189 21.9 20.5
* This category includes, but is not limited to: Asian or Asian-American, Hispanic or Latino, Middle Eastern, Mixed Race or Multi-racial, Native American.
** Party ID was not used as a weighting characteristic.