Conflict Analysis Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH
Jun 15, 2015
Conflict Analysis
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcbG1t_lh0
0:01 – 1:01
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Background
Stakeholders
Conflict
Aftermath
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Background
Stakeholders
Conflict
Aftermath
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1949 : first Israel-Arab war, Israel
started to occupy the south of Arab
part
1947 : After the second
world war and the jews
genocide, palestinian
territory was divided into
Israel and Arab state by UN
decision
1957 : Suez Canal crisis, when
Egyptian decided to nationalize the
canal in 1956
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Direct Causes
Military presence of Arab countries in Israel borders
Incident West Bank, 3 Israeli soldier killed by Al Fatah mine
17th May of 1967 : Withdrawal of UN “casques bleus” to Sinai, ordered by Nasser
Indirect Causes
Non recognition of Israel state from Arab countries (Egypt, Syria, Jordan)
Arab alliance against “Imperialism”
Moshe Dayan appointed defense minister and chief of army in 1967
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Does Israel show all the characteristics of a state?
Characteristics Status
Defined territory unclear
Population unclear
Judicial system yes
Own currency, flag yes
International recognition unclear
Background
Stakeholders
Conflict
Aftermath
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Gamal Abdel Nasser (* 1918 † 1970)
Provoquer of the Six Day War
• 1958-1970 President of the
United Arab Republic and
President of Egyptian Republic
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Abd al-Hakim Amer
(* 1919 † 1967)
• 1968 -1965 Vice President of
Egypt
• 1956–1967 Egyptian army´s
Field Marshall and Minister of
Defense
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King Hussein of Jordan
(*1935 †1999)
• 1952-1999 King of Jordan
• Reluctant ally of Egypt
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Levi Eshkol (* 1895 † 1969)
• 1963-1969 Prime
Minister of Israel
• 1963-1967 Minister
of Defense
Ara
bc
ou
ntr
ies
Isra
el
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Ara
bc
ou
ntr
ies
Moshe Dayan (* 1915 † 1981)
• 1967 -1974
Minister of
Defense
• Lieutenant
General
Isra
el
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Ara
bc
ou
ntr
ies
Isra
el
Abba Eban(*1915 † 2002)
• 1963–1966
Deputy Prime
Minister
• 1966–1974
Minister of
Foreign Affairs
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Ara
bc
ou
ntr
ies
Isra
el
• 1964 – 67 Chief of
Staff of the Israel
Defense Forces
(IDF)
• 1968 – 1973
Ambassador to the
U.S
Yitzhak Rabin(*1922 † 1955)
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Ara
bc
ou
ntr
ies
Isra
el
U.S. President Johnson: „ Israel will not be alone, unless it decides to go alone.“
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Exaggeration of threats
Poor judgment of intentions, situations
Consideration of all relative information
Identity- virile or victim
Beliefs, moral authority, credibility, reputation
Deployment of arms and occupation of a
territory
Bipolar perspective – US vs. Them
Ideology/nationalism
Overestimation of military capacity
Military optimism
Exaggeration of threats
Bipolar perspective – US vs. Them
Ideology/nationalism
Beliefs, moral authority, credibility,
reputation
Factors causing misperceptions
ISRAEL ARAB COUNTRIES
Background
Stakeholders
Conflict
Aftermath
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3 Israeli soldiers
stepped on a mine
patrolling along the
border between
Israel and West
Bank (then under
Jordanian control)
Mine planted by
the al-Fatah
organization of
Yasser Arafat
11th Nov
1966
13rd Nov
1966
12th May
1967
25th /26th /27th
May 196730th June
1967
1st June
1967
Israeli retaliation
raid crossed into
West Bank to strike
into an al-Fatah
stronghold
Eviction of UN
forces and closing
of Israel’s Southern
port Eilat by Nasser
Israel’s foreign
minister in
Washington
questioning the US
position in case of
an war outbreak
and the Egyptian
“operation Dawn”
plans for the 27th
Jordanian Army
under command of
Egyptian General
Riad
Jordan signs a
mutual defense
treaty with Egypt
Israel calls upon
Jordan numerous
times to refrain
from hostilities.
BUT: Jordanian
soldiers that wasn’t
supposed to be
there crossed
Israeli paths and
shots were
exchanged
14 killed Jordanians
and riots in Jordan
Wrong pretext
supplied by
Soviets: Report of
an Israeli plan to
invade Syria and to
capture DamascusHotline message
between Johnson
and Soviet Premier
Kosygin
Operation
canceled
5th June
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King Hussein
received false
information from
Egypt denying
Egyptian losses
and claiming a
massive and
successful Egyptian
attack against
Israel.
Operation Focus
(Mivtza Moked)
was launched at
7:45 am Israeli
time.
Israel Air Force
(IAF) jets attack
and destroy the air
forces of Egypt,
Syria and Jordan.
Israel sends a
message to Jordan’s
leader King Hussein
via the US State
Department, the UN
and the British
Foreign Office, saying
that, despite the
outbreak of war, it
would not attack the
West Bank if Jordan
maintained quiet on
that front.
Emboldened by
this information,
Jordan launched
immediate multiple
attacks on Israel
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9CJowfomT0
Israeli paratroopers
in the Old City
Israeli forces
entering West Bank
Misleading
information of
General Riad
about destroyed
Isreali airforce.
No reaction of
Isreal on
Jordanians
opening fire in
Jerusalem.
5th June
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IAF was used
against Egyptian,
Jordanian, Syrian,
and Iraqi ground
forces.
IAF destroyed
hundreds of
Egyptian vehicles
trying to flee and
trapped thousands
more in narrow
Sinai passes..
Operation Focus
(Mivtza Moked)
was launched at
7:45 am Israeli
time.
Israel had complete
air superiority over
Israel, the Golan
Heights, the West
Bank, and the entire
Sinai desert.
Fighting is over.
6th June 7th June 8th June 9th June 10th June
Israel completed
the capture of the
Sinai by sending
infantry units to
Ras Sudar on the
western coast of
the peninsula
Syria announceds
its acceptance of
the cease-fire
Despite this, four
hours later at 7
am, Israeli
Defense Minister
Moshe Dayan
"gives the order
to go into action
against Syria”
Battle of the Golan
HeightsIn some locations,
Israeli troops
advanced after an
agreed-upon
cease-fire to
occupy
strategically strong
positions
By the end of the
third day Jordanian
military no longer
in the fight.
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776–983 killed
4,517 wounded
15 captured
-------
400 tanks
destroyed
46 aircraft
destroyed
10,000 – 15,000 killed or missing
4,338 captured
6,000 killed or missing
533 captured
2,500 killed
591 captured
10 killed
30 wounded
hundreds
of tanks
destroyed
452+
aircraft
destroyed
IsraelArab
Countries
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Realism
The state is the dominant actor
Power maximization (homo politicus, material gains)
Recognize non-state actors but view them as unable to compete with the state
International institutions and law = state creation and work for state interests
Constructivism
The state is the central actor but not always rational (also based on emotions)
Homo symbolicus = interests are determined by identity, ideology, cultural links or recognition
For constructivists, material goods (disarmament) can be symbolic
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Levels of the Conflict
International: cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union
Regional: between progressive and conservative Arab regimes
Bilateral: intractable Arab-Israeli conflict (perennial source of instability throughout theregion).
Power in International Relations
Eshkol promoting soft power
Military (Amer, Dayan, Rabin, etc.) promoting hard power
Religious: entering the Old City of Jerusalem complicating relationship with Catholiccountries as well as deteriote the relationship with Muslim countries
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Background and Pretext
Stakeholders
Conflict
Aftermath
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http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UKuxPyrpx0
40:37 -end
UN 242 Resolution
Required the withdrawal ofisraeli forces in occupiedterritories
"Termination of all claims or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgment of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force."
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Khartoum Resolution, “The Three No resolution"
No peace with Israel
No recognition of Israel
No negociation with Israel
Faisal of Saudi Arabia, Nasser of Egypt, Sallal of Yemen,
Sabah of Kuwait and Arif of Iraq, the 29th August 1967
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