The 3rd Asia-Pacific Computing and Philosophy Conference 2007 Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand Joan H. Kim California State University Los Angeles.

The 3rd Asia-Pacific Computing and Philosophy Conference 2007The 3rd Asia-Pacific Computing and Philosophy Conference 2007Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, ThailandChulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand

Joan H. KimCalifornia State University Los AngelesAdvisor: Dr. Russ Abbott

Unintended Unintended ConsequencesConsequences

OverviewOverview

► IntroductionIntroduction► BackgroundBackground► Literature ReviewLiterature Review► Computational ThinkingComputational Thinking► Proposed CharacterizationProposed Characterization► Gaming the SystemGaming the System► Historical ContingencyHistorical Contingency► Legal Process & Procedure vs. Common Legal Process & Procedure vs. Common

SenseSense► ConclusionConclusion► ResourcesResources

► Available literature shows, “unintended consequence” Available literature shows, “unintended consequence” lacks a clear, distinctive characterization. lacks a clear, distinctive characterization.

► A general notion of unintended consequence could be A general notion of unintended consequence could be an unplanned outcome. an unplanned outcome. A virus infects your computer due to vulnerabilities in the A virus infects your computer due to vulnerabilities in the

operating system design. operating system design. Developing tax evasion strategies as a result of implementing Developing tax evasion strategies as a result of implementing

income tax laws. income tax laws. Discarding a banana peel, which causes someone to slip and Discarding a banana peel, which causes someone to slip and

fall. fall. Philip K. Howard in Philip K. Howard in The Death of Common Sense The Death of Common Sense discloses a discloses a

case where the Missionaries of Charity, led by Mother Teresa, case where the Missionaries of Charity, led by Mother Teresa, attempt to construct a housing facility for homeless men, but attempt to construct a housing facility for homeless men, but are thwarted by building code requiring an elevator in every are thwarted by building code requiring an elevator in every new and renovated building. new and renovated building.

IntroductionIntroduction

Sociological TermSociological Term

► The University of Canterbury’s The University of Canterbury’s Glossary Glossary of Sociological Termsof Sociological Terms defines unintended defines unintended consequence as:consequence as: Repercussions or outcomes which result Repercussions or outcomes which result

from actions initiated for other purposes. from actions initiated for other purposes. This is thought to be a key dimension of This is thought to be a key dimension of

social activity, though these social social activity, though these social effects cannot be explained by actors' effects cannot be explained by actors' intentions.intentions.

BackgroundBackground

► Sociologist Robert K. Merton is credited with coining Sociologist Robert K. Merton is credited with coining the phrase in his article, "The Unanticipated the phrase in his article, "The Unanticipated Consequences of Purposive Social Action" published Consequences of Purposive Social Action" published in 1936.in 1936. ““The problem of the unanticipated consequences of The problem of the unanticipated consequences of

purposive action has been treated by virtually every purposive action has been treated by virtually every substantial contributor to the long history of social substantial contributor to the long history of social thought.”thought.”

““The fact remains that though the process has been widely The fact remains that though the process has been widely recognized and its importance equally appreciated, it still recognized and its importance equally appreciated, it still awaits a systematic treatment.”awaits a systematic treatment.”

““We must examine and classify the types of social action We must examine and classify the types of social action and organization with reference to the elements here and organization with reference to the elements here discussed and then refer our generalizations to these discussed and then refer our generalizations to these essentially different types.”essentially different types.”

Possible Causes of Possible Causes of Unanticipated ConsequencesUnanticipated Consequences

► IgnoranceIgnorance – not having “enough” knowledge. – not having “enough” knowledge. Not having a road map or the correct directions causes you to be late and miss an Not having a road map or the correct directions causes you to be late and miss an

event.event.► ErrorError – incorrect assessment based on assumptions or past history. – incorrect assessment based on assumptions or past history.

Since you have received a payroll deposit every Friday for the last 2 years, you Since you have received a payroll deposit every Friday for the last 2 years, you foresee no reason your payroll will not deposit this coming Friday. In anticipation, foresee no reason your payroll will not deposit this coming Friday. In anticipation, you write a check, which does not clear due to a payroll error that prevents your you write a check, which does not clear due to a payroll error that prevents your payroll from depositing as you assumed. payroll from depositing as you assumed.

► Immediacy of interestsImmediacy of interests – when the desire of immediate – when the desire of immediate consequence overshadows consideration of future consequences. consequence overshadows consideration of future consequences. A nation might ban abortion on moral grounds even though children born as a result A nation might ban abortion on moral grounds even though children born as a result

of the policy may be unwanted and likely to be more dependent on the state.of the policy may be unwanted and likely to be more dependent on the state.► Basic values Basic values – fundamental values preventing the consideration of – fundamental values preventing the consideration of

consequences. consequences. Hard work and active asceticism paradoxically leads to its own decline through the Hard work and active asceticism paradoxically leads to its own decline through the

accumulation of wealth and possessions.accumulation of wealth and possessions.► Self-defeating predictionSelf-defeating prediction – when prediction becomes an influencing – when prediction becomes an influencing

aspect on the very process it predicts. aspect on the very process it predicts. Marx’s prediction of the progressive concentration of wealth and increasing misery of Marx’s prediction of the progressive concentration of wealth and increasing misery of

the masses, leads to the spread of the organization of labor eliminating predicted the masses, leads to the spread of the organization of labor eliminating predicted developments.developments.

Post-Merton LiteraturePost-Merton Literature

► SociologicalSociological Raymond Boudon: Perverse EffectsRaymond Boudon: Perverse Effects Richard Vernon: 3 General CategoriesRichard Vernon: 3 General Categories Patrick Baert: TypologyPatrick Baert: Typology

► Economic and PoliticalEconomic and Political Rob Norton: Heeding Its PowerRob Norton: Heeding Its Power Adam Smith: Invisible HandAdam Smith: Invisible Hand Steven J. Levitt: FreakonomicsSteven J. Levitt: Freakonomics

► TechonologyTechonology Edward Tenner: Revenge EffectsEdward Tenner: Revenge Effects

Perverse EffectsPerverse Effects

► Raymond Boudon restates, “the case that Merton in 1936 made Raymond Boudon restates, “the case that Merton in 1936 made for what could be called the paradigm of the perverse effect.”for what could be called the paradigm of the perverse effect.”

► This "paradigm” links social change to the unintended This "paradigm” links social change to the unintended consequences of individual actions, and to efforts to address consequences of individual actions, and to efforts to address these consequences. these consequences.

► One major theme unifies the collection–the contention that at a One major theme unifies the collection–the contention that at a societal level the sum of individual actions brings about societal level the sum of individual actions brings about paradoxical outcomes and results contrary to individual paradoxical outcomes and results contrary to individual expectations and intentions.expectations and intentions.

► The main illustration, throughout the book, concerns the The main illustration, throughout the book, concerns the demand for education in industrial societies. demand for education in industrial societies. For example, each individual reasons that "more is better," but this For example, each individual reasons that "more is better," but this

serves to decrease the worth of any given level of education for serves to decrease the worth of any given level of education for everyone. everyone.

3 General Categories3 General Categories► Over forty years after Merton’s introduction, Richard Vernon, a Professor Over forty years after Merton’s introduction, Richard Vernon, a Professor

of Political Science at University of Western Ontario, in his of Political Science at University of Western Ontario, in his Political TheoryPolitical Theory article offers three general categories of unintended consequence. article offers three general categories of unintended consequence. Unintended consequences arise as the cumulative outcome of similar actions Unintended consequences arise as the cumulative outcome of similar actions

performed simultaneously or consecutively by a number of actors. performed simultaneously or consecutively by a number of actors. ► Karl Popper’s Karl Popper’s Poverty of Historicism Poverty of Historicism describes many people all wanting to enjoy describes many people all wanting to enjoy

solitude in the mountains who converge at the same time and consequently cannot solitude in the mountains who converge at the same time and consequently cannot enjoy solitude there.enjoy solitude there.

Unintended consequences arise also from the simultaneous or consecutive Unintended consequences arise also from the simultaneous or consecutive performance of dissimilar actions by individuals or groups. performance of dissimilar actions by individuals or groups. ► Friedrich Hayek believes in a market system, when pricing increases from scarcity of Friedrich Hayek believes in a market system, when pricing increases from scarcity of

goods members of society following simple, self-interest use goods more efficiently or goods members of society following simple, self-interest use goods more efficiently or replace them with less expensive equivalents resulting in unplanned efficiency and replace them with less expensive equivalents resulting in unplanned efficiency and regulation of the market.regulation of the market.

““Contextual change” – As context shifts, the use of various elements take on Contextual change” – As context shifts, the use of various elements take on unforeseen uses and meanings. unforeseen uses and meanings. ► In Buster Keaton's In Buster Keaton's The GeneralThe General, Keaton plays the hero who is swept towards some , Keaton plays the hero who is swept towards some

fearful rapids along with his heroine. A rope tied around his waist from an earlier fearful rapids along with his heroine. A rope tied around his waist from an earlier sequence is used to lash onto a log on the bank—it comes loose and he’s swept more sequence is used to lash onto a log on the bank—it comes loose and he’s swept more perilously than before. Upon arriving at the rapids, the log is jammed between two perilously than before. Upon arriving at the rapids, the log is jammed between two rocks and Keaton is suspended over the torrent. As the heroine arrives, Keaton swings rocks and Keaton is suspended over the torrent. As the heroine arrives, Keaton swings sideways to catch her and on the reverse swing the rope breaks and deposits them sideways to catch her and on the reverse swing the rope breaks and deposits them both safely on the bank. As the context shifts, “projects” (intermediary events that both safely on the bank. As the context shifts, “projects” (intermediary events that lead to an ending event) and “instruments” (log and rope) acquire unforeseen uses lead to an ending event) and “instruments” (log and rope) acquire unforeseen uses and meanings.and meanings.

Typology and ExamplesTypology and ExamplesBaert’s Dimensions and Modes of Unintended ConsequencesBaert’s Dimensions and Modes of Unintended Consequences

Dimension A: what the effect refers toDimension A: what the effect refers to► A1: individual effects, type 1 A1: individual effects, type 1 ExampleExample: If someone breaks his or her arm while skiing.: If someone breaks his or her arm while skiing.► A2: individual effects, type 2 A2: individual effects, type 2 Example: Example: If parental divorce leaves children emotionally disturbed.If parental divorce leaves children emotionally disturbed.► A3: social effectsA3: social effects

A31: systematic effects A31: systematic effects Example: Example: Having a meal with friends leading to intensified feelings of solidarity between us.Having a meal with friends leading to intensified feelings of solidarity between us. A32: aggregate effects A32: aggregate effects Example: Example: Recession causes reduction of wages resulting in less consumption which worsens Recession causes reduction of wages resulting in less consumption which worsens

the recession.the recession.

Dimension B: value attached to the effect from the initial perspectiveDimension B: value attached to the effect from the initial perspective► B1: effects are desirable for the actorB1: effects are desirable for the actor► B2: undesirableB2: undesirable► B3: neutralB3: neutralDimension C: relationship with the initial intentionDimension C: relationship with the initial intention► C1: effects fulfill the initial intentionC1: effects fulfill the initial intention► C2: effects frustrate the initial intentionC2: effects frustrate the initial intention► C3: effects neither fulfill, nor frustrate the initial intentionC3: effects neither fulfill, nor frustrate the initial intention

C31: action has at least one other effect by which the initial intention is fulfilledC31: action has at least one other effect by which the initial intention is fulfilled C32: action has no other effect by which the initial intention is fulfilledC32: action has no other effect by which the initial intention is fulfilled

Dimension D: modes of knowledgeability and awarenessDimension D: modes of knowledgeability and awareness► D1: unanticipated effectsD1: unanticipated effects► D2: anticipated-but-unexpected effectsD2: anticipated-but-unexpected effects► D3: expected effectsD3: expected effectsDimension E: temporal aspectsDimension E: temporal aspects► E1: synchronic effectsE1: synchronic effects► E2: diachronic effectsE2: diachronic effects

Heeding Its PowerHeeding Its Power

► Economist Rob Norton asserts, “Economists Economist Rob Norton asserts, “Economists and other social scientists have heeded its and other social scientists have heeded its power for centuries; for just as long, politicians power for centuries; for just as long, politicians and popular opinion have largely ignored it.”and popular opinion have largely ignored it.”

► ““The concept of unintended consequences is The concept of unintended consequences is one of the building blocks of economics.”one of the building blocks of economics.”

► He credits Adam Smith's "invisible hand," as He credits Adam Smith's "invisible hand," as the most famous metaphor in social science the most famous metaphor in social science and an example of a “positive unintended and an example of a “positive unintended consequence.” consequence.”

The Invisible HandThe Invisible Hand

► "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or "It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to the baker that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own self-interest... [Every individual] intends only his their own self-interest... [Every individual] intends only his own security, only his own gain. And he is in this led by an own security, only his own gain. And he is in this led by an invisible handinvisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his to promote an end which was no part of his intention. By pursuing his own interest, he frequently intention. By pursuing his own interest, he frequently promotes that of society more effectually than when he really promotes that of society more effectually than when he really intends to promote it." intends to promote it."

► The "invisible hand" represents all the social good incidentally The "invisible hand" represents all the social good incidentally caused by individuals pursuing their own self-interest. caused by individuals pursuing their own self-interest.

► For example, a businessman wanting to become a millionaire For example, a businessman wanting to become a millionaire must first come up with a product that is beneficial, pleasing must first come up with a product that is beneficial, pleasing and desired by potential customers. By pursuing his own and desired by potential customers. By pursuing his own greed, the millionaire undoubtedly benefits society.greed, the millionaire undoubtedly benefits society.

FreakonomicsFreakonomics

► Steven J. Levitt refers to an “unintended Steven J. Levitt refers to an “unintended benefit” in his chapter, “Where Have all the benefit” in his chapter, “Where Have all the Criminals Gone?”Criminals Gone?” ““To discover that abortion was one of the greatest To discover that abortion was one of the greatest

crime-lowering factors in American history is, crime-lowering factors in American history is, needless to say, jarring.”needless to say, jarring.”

““The crime drop was, in the language of The crime drop was, in the language of economists, an ‘unintended benefit’ of legalized economists, an ‘unintended benefit’ of legalized abortion. abortion.

““But one need not oppose abortion on moral or But one need not oppose abortion on moral or religious grounds to feel shaken by the notion of a religious grounds to feel shaken by the notion of a private sadness being converted into a public private sadness being converted into a public good.”good.”

Revenge AffectsRevenge Affects

► Even when used to better the world, technology Even when used to better the world, technology fosters unforeseen, often unpleasant consequences fosters unforeseen, often unpleasant consequences that Edward Tenner calls “revenge effects” in his that Edward Tenner calls “revenge effects” in his book, book, Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Why Things Bite Back: Technology and the Revenge of Unintended Consequences. Revenge of Unintended Consequences. For For example:example: Air-conditioned subways raise platform temperatures by as Air-conditioned subways raise platform temperatures by as

much as 10much as 10°°F.F. Some computer users get painful, wrist-numbing carpal Some computer users get painful, wrist-numbing carpal

tunnel syndrome.tunnel syndrome. Flood control systems encourage settlement of flood-prone Flood control systems encourage settlement of flood-prone

areas, inviting disaster. areas, inviting disaster. 6% of all hospital patients become infected with microbes 6% of all hospital patients become infected with microbes

they encounter during their stay.they encounter during their stay.

Computational ThinkingComputational Thinking

► Coined in 2006 by Jeanette Wing, the National Science Coined in 2006 by Jeanette Wing, the National Science Foundation’s newly appointed Assistant Director for Computer & Foundation’s newly appointed Assistant Director for Computer & Information Science and Engineering and President's Professor Information Science and Engineering and President's Professor and Head of the CS Department at Carnegie Mellon University's and Head of the CS Department at Carnegie Mellon University's School of Computer Science. School of Computer Science.

► A fundamental skill that will be used by everyone in the world by A fundamental skill that will be used by everyone in the world by the middle of the 21the middle of the 21stst Century representing a universally Century representing a universally applicable attitude and skill set everyone, not just computer applicable attitude and skill set everyone, not just computer scientists, would be eager to learn and use.scientists, would be eager to learn and use.

► A way of solving problems, designing systems, and understanding A way of solving problems, designing systems, and understanding human behavior that draws on concepts fundamental to computer human behavior that draws on concepts fundamental to computer science. science. Conceptualizing, not programmingConceptualizing, not programming Fundamental, not rote skillFundamental, not rote skill A way that humans, not computers thinkA way that humans, not computers think

► Gives us the power to scale beyond our imagination.Gives us the power to scale beyond our imagination.

http://www.cs.cmu.edu/afs/cs/usr/wing/www/publications/Wing06.pdf

Proposed CharacterizationProposed Characterization

► An unintended consequence occurs when an An unintended consequence occurs when an unexpected and unintended use is made of a unexpected and unintended use is made of a mechanism or formalism—such as a law, a rule, a mechanism or formalism—such as a law, a rule, a regulation, a computer program or even a custom or regulation, a computer program or even a custom or an accepted ethical or moral precept—that has been an accepted ethical or moral precept—that has been established in the world. established in the world.

► Presumably the mechanism or formalism was Presumably the mechanism or formalism was established with the intent of achieving some established with the intent of achieving some particular positive result or reducing or eliminating particular positive result or reducing or eliminating something that is considered negative. something that is considered negative.

► The unintended consequence is almost always The unintended consequence is almost always different from that end and in many cases may be different from that end and in many cases may be contrary to it.contrary to it.

► Lastly, exploitation of the established mechanism Lastly, exploitation of the established mechanism undoubtedly creates a definite advantage or profit.undoubtedly creates a definite advantage or profit.

““Gaming the System”Gaming the System”

► One "games a system" when one acts in such a One "games a system" when one acts in such a way that one gains an advantage by exploiting way that one gains an advantage by exploiting a mechanism or a rule that was intended for a mechanism or a rule that was intended for some other purpose. some other purpose.

“Gaming the System”

► Advertising spam is an unintended consequence of Advertising spam is an unintended consequence of the way the email system works.the way the email system works.

► A new SAT test preparation A new SAT test preparation market is an unintended market is an unintended consequence of instituting consequence of instituting the College Board SAT the College Board SAT subject tests.subject tests.

► Creating a market for dead snakes is an unintended Creating a market for dead snakes is an unintended consequence of a reward program to lower the consequence of a reward program to lower the snake population.snake population.

Evasion, Blackmail and FraudEvasion, Blackmail and Fraud► Leo Katz characterizes these 3 “mysteries” in Leo Katz characterizes these 3 “mysteries” in Ill-Gotten Gains: Evasion, Ill-Gotten Gains: Evasion,

Blackmail, Fraud, and Kindred Puzzles of the Law. Blackmail, Fraud, and Kindred Puzzles of the Law. These particular These particular situations all strive to circumvent the law in some way to produce ill-situations all strive to circumvent the law in some way to produce ill-gotten gains. gotten gains.

► Further, Katz supports that formalism has genuine moral costs—He Further, Katz supports that formalism has genuine moral costs—He examines the letter of the law vs. the spirit or purpose of the law offering examines the letter of the law vs. the spirit or purpose of the law offering the following examples:the following examples: A woman from some Third World country is visiting in the United States and decides she A woman from some Third World country is visiting in the United States and decides she

would like to live there. One possible way of obtaining permanent residency is to get would like to live there. One possible way of obtaining permanent residency is to get political asylum. So she quickly makes up some highly provocative statements that render political asylum. So she quickly makes up some highly provocative statements that render her persona non grata at home. Then, she applies for political asylum. her persona non grata at home. Then, she applies for political asylum.

Law in many states seeks to prevent husbands from disinheriting their wives. Determined Law in many states seeks to prevent husbands from disinheriting their wives. Determined husbands have given away their money before they die. Gifts, after all, are not regulated husbands have given away their money before they die. Gifts, after all, are not regulated by the “forced share” statutes. by the “forced share” statutes.

First amendment protection does not extend to obscene materials. Obscene materials First amendment protection does not extend to obscene materials. Obscene materials being something that lacks a sufficient measure of “redeeming social value.” A publisher being something that lacks a sufficient measure of “redeeming social value.” A publisher eager to distribute some “tantalizing” pictures, but concerned with the law makes them eager to distribute some “tantalizing” pictures, but concerned with the law makes them part of a book he titles, “Sex in Marriage.”part of a book he titles, “Sex in Marriage.”

U.S. Bankruptcy law provides that a debtor who has become overwhelmed with financial U.S. Bankruptcy law provides that a debtor who has become overwhelmed with financial obligations, which he has no hope of being able to meet, can make a “fresh start” in life obligations, which he has no hope of being able to meet, can make a “fresh start” in life by declaring bankruptcy. The critical prerequisite to becoming free and clear of this debt by declaring bankruptcy. The critical prerequisite to becoming free and clear of this debt is to give up one’s current possessions. However, you don’t literally give up is to give up one’s current possessions. However, you don’t literally give up everythingeverything you own; you don’t give up the shirt on your back. In many states, you don’t have to give you own; you don’t give up the shirt on your back. In many states, you don’t have to give up the house you live in, the furniture and various other stuff in it, or your life insurance up the house you live in, the furniture and various other stuff in it, or your life insurance and certain kinds of pensions because they are viewed as the figurative shirt on your and certain kinds of pensions because they are viewed as the figurative shirt on your back.back.

Historical ContingencyHistorical Contingency

► An unintended consequence An unintended consequence does notdoes not include include historical contingencies, the contingent sequence of historical contingencies, the contingent sequence of events that occur, at least in part, of preceding events that occur, at least in part, of preceding events.events. Slipping on a discarded banana peel.Slipping on a discarded banana peel. Air-conditioned subways raise Air-conditioned subways raise

platform temperatures by ~10 platform temperatures by ~10° ° F. F. A large factor in lowering crime is A large factor in lowering crime is

connected to legalization of abortion. connected to legalization of abortion. Going to war incurs collateral damage.Going to war incurs collateral damage. For want of a nail, a shoe was lostFor want of a nail, a shoe was lost

For want of a shoe, a horse was lostFor want of a shoe, a horse was lostFor want of a horse, a rider was lostFor want of a horse, a rider was lostFor want of a rider, a message was lostFor want of a rider, a message was lostFor want of a message, a battle was lostFor want of a message, a battle was lostFor want of a battle, a kingdom was lostFor want of a battle, a kingdom was lostAll for want of a nailAll for want of a nail- George Herbert- George Herbert

Legal Process and Procedure Legal Process and Procedure vs. Common Sensevs. Common Sense

► Studies emerging on the topic have addressed the Studies emerging on the topic have addressed the problem of process and procedure becoming a problem of process and procedure becoming a deterrent to the very goals they intend to accomplish. deterrent to the very goals they intend to accomplish.

► A law enacted with an express purpose of ensuring A law enacted with an express purpose of ensuring fairness and safety to individuals, is inevitably met fairness and safety to individuals, is inevitably met with those who manage to evade or avoid them with those who manage to evade or avoid them through loopholes.through loopholes. In the development and implementation of various types of In the development and implementation of various types of

systems, we see a common phenomena emerge.systems, we see a common phenomena emerge. Loopholes—a bug in the law. Similarly, when we develop Loopholes—a bug in the law. Similarly, when we develop

software systems we end up with bugs in our code. software systems we end up with bugs in our code. For example, an operating system release seldom goes For example, an operating system release seldom goes

without ensuing issues that are fixed through software without ensuing issues that are fixed through software patches. In the lifetime of a software release the patch patches. In the lifetime of a software release the patch history can become quite large. However, a succeeding new history can become quite large. However, a succeeding new release is regularly made addressing previous bugs and release is regularly made addressing previous bugs and vulnerabilities.vulnerabilities.

Law is Suffocating AmericaLaw is Suffocating America► Philip K. Howard’s Philip K. Howard’s The Death of Common Sense: How Law is Suffocating The Death of Common Sense: How Law is Suffocating

America America emphasizes that responsibility, not process, is the key emphasizes that responsibility, not process, is the key ingredient to action.ingredient to action. ““The characteristic complaint of our time seems to be not that government The characteristic complaint of our time seems to be not that government

provides no reasons, but that its reasons often seem remote from human provides no reasons, but that its reasons often seem remote from human beings who must live with the consequences.” (former Justice William beings who must live with the consequences.” (former Justice William Brennan)Brennan)

The Occupational Health and Safety Act in 1970 promised to ensure safety to The Occupational Health and Safety Act in 1970 promised to ensure safety to every worker. Since its inception, OSHA has yielded some 4,000 odd every worker. Since its inception, OSHA has yielded some 4,000 odd regulations dictating everything from the height of railings (42 inches) to how regulations dictating everything from the height of railings (42 inches) to how much a plank can stick out from a temporary scaffold (no more than 12 much a plank can stick out from a temporary scaffold (no more than 12 inches). There approximately 2,000 safety inspectors to some 6 million inches). There approximately 2,000 safety inspectors to some 6 million workplaces. Several hundred billion dollars have been spent by industry workplaces. Several hundred billion dollars have been spent by industry towards OSHA compliance. In spite of this, the American workplace is about towards OSHA compliance. In spite of this, the American workplace is about the same as it was in 1970. the same as it was in 1970.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) passed a rule authorizing a “head The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) passed a rule authorizing a “head tax” on departing passengers to help fund mass transit to airports. The writer tax” on departing passengers to help fund mass transit to airports. The writer of the rule, trying to clarify every eventuality, wanted to make sure no city of the rule, trying to clarify every eventuality, wanted to make sure no city used this airport tax subsidy and explicitly requires an “exclusive” system used this airport tax subsidy and explicitly requires an “exclusive” system and prohibits any “facility shared with other mass transit.” As a result, New and prohibits any “facility shared with other mass transit.” As a result, New York City, a prime candidate, can’t link its airport transport into the tracks to York City, a prime candidate, can’t link its airport transport into the tracks to Penn Station and Grand Central Station where it makes most sense, because Penn Station and Grand Central Station where it makes most sense, because those tracks would not be “exclusive” per the rule. those tracks would not be “exclusive” per the rule.

Economic LogicEconomic Logic► Steven E. Landsberg in Steven E. Landsberg in More Sex is Safer More Sex is Safer uses the, “logic of economics” uses the, “logic of economics”

to explore common sense issues and show that individual rational to explore common sense issues and show that individual rational decisions can combine into surprising and unintended collective results. decisions can combine into surprising and unintended collective results.

► Communal-stream principleCommunal-stream principle – “Feel free to pollute your own swimming – “Feel free to pollute your own swimming pool, but if your sludge spills over into the stream we all share, you pool, but if your sludge spills over into the stream we all share, you should pay for the damage.” For example:should pay for the damage.” For example: A person dropping a banana peel is rarely the same person who slips on that A person dropping a banana peel is rarely the same person who slips on that

samesame banana peel. A wayward piece of newspaper that wraps itself around banana peel. A wayward piece of newspaper that wraps itself around your ankles is most likely not a newspaper your ankles is most likely not a newspaper youyou just tossed away. just tossed away.

At dinner ordering a $10 dessert when you are splitting dinner 10 ways At dinner ordering a $10 dessert when you are splitting dinner 10 ways between friends seems like a bargain, but you would never get it if you were between friends seems like a bargain, but you would never get it if you were by yourself. This is an example of what Landsberg calls a “poor outcome.” You by yourself. This is an example of what Landsberg calls a “poor outcome.” You get a dessert you normally would not value enough to get, and the group get a dessert you normally would not value enough to get, and the group loses collectively as a result.loses collectively as a result.

Landsberg asserts there is a, “sin of self-restraint.” He poses Martin, a Landsberg asserts there is a, “sin of self-restraint.” He poses Martin, a sexually responsible and prudent individual who decides not to go to a party sexually responsible and prudent individual who decides not to go to a party after seeing a CDC sponsored ad touting the virtues of chastity. In his after seeing a CDC sponsored ad touting the virtues of chastity. In his absence, a woman with a mutual interest ends up hooking up with Maxwell, a absence, a woman with a mutual interest ends up hooking up with Maxwell, a considerably less prudent and responsible sexual partner and she contracts considerably less prudent and responsible sexual partner and she contracts AIDS. The point that Landsberg makes is that the advertisement does a good AIDS. The point that Landsberg makes is that the advertisement does a good job of reinforcing the already prudent Martin, but fails to make an impression job of reinforcing the already prudent Martin, but fails to make an impression on Maxwell.on Maxwell.

ConclusionConclusion

► There is a wealth and breadth of references to There is a wealth and breadth of references to unintended consequence by social, economic unintended consequence by social, economic and political theorists.and political theorists.

► Examination of unintended consequence does Examination of unintended consequence does not allow us to predict outcomes, but we can not allow us to predict outcomes, but we can still observe and analyze occurrences and still observe and analyze occurrences and patterns which emerge.patterns which emerge.

► Computational methods provide a good way Computational methods provide a good way to study and analyze social phenomena, to study and analyze social phenomena, allowing us to propose a clearer, more well-allowing us to propose a clearer, more well-defined characterization in spite of the large defined characterization in spite of the large variation of its application.variation of its application.

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2005. 17 Oct. 2004. <http://cs.calstatela.edu/wiki/index.php/Courses/CS_461/Museum_of_unintended_consequence/> 2005. 17 Oct. 2004. <http://cs.calstatela.edu/wiki/index.php/Courses/CS_461/Museum_of_unintended_consequence/> ► Howard, Philip K. The Death of Common Sense. New York: Random House. 1994.Howard, Philip K. The Death of Common Sense. New York: Random House. 1994.► ““Unintended Consequence.” Unintended Consequence.” Glossary of Sociological Terms. Glossary of Sociological Terms. 7 Sep. 2007. 7 Sep. 2007.

<http://www.soci.canterbury.ac.nz/resources/glossary/unintend.shtml>. Taken from Tony Bilton’s<http://www.soci.canterbury.ac.nz/resources/glossary/unintend.shtml>. Taken from Tony Bilton’s Introductory Introductory SociologySociology, 3rd edition. London: Macmillan. 1996:672., 3rd edition. London: Macmillan. 1996:672.

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(December 1984), pp. 613-614.(December 1984), pp. 613-614.► Vromen, Suzanne. Review of Unintended Consequences-Boudon – Vromen, Suzanne. Review of Unintended Consequences-Boudon – insert citationinsert citation► Vernon, Richard. “Unintended Consequences.” Vernon, Richard. “Unintended Consequences.” Political TheoryPolitical Theory, 7.1 (1979): 57-73, 7.1 (1979): 57-73► Baert, Patrick. “Unintended Consequences: A Typology And Examples.” Baert, Patrick. “Unintended Consequences: A Typology And Examples.” International Sociology , International Sociology , 6.2 (June 1991) pp. 6.2 (June 1991) pp.

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