Tankan Summary (December 2017) 175th Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan December 15, 2017 Number of Sample Enterprises Ref.: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises Research and Statistics Department Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate (yen per US dollar) Bank of Japan All Enterprises 4,333 6,312 10,645 99.6% FY 2016 FY 2017 Large Enterprises 1,074 1,023 2,097 99.6% 1H 2H 1H 2H Medium-sized Enterprises 1,140 1,831 2,971 99.5% June 2017 Survey 108.29 106.57 109.89 108.31 108.36 108.27 Small Enterprises 2,119 3,458 5,577 99.6% Sept. 2017 Survey - - - 109.29 109.46 109.12 Financial institutions - - 195 98.5% Dec. 2017 Survey - - - 110.18 110.69 109.66 Responding Period: November 14 to December 14 1. Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) Large Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Manufacturing 22 19 25 3 19 -6 17 13 19 2 14 -5 10 8 15 5 11 -4 Textiles 6 3 6 0 0 -6 -11 -11 -7 4 -13 -6 -22 -25 -20 2 -25 -5 Lumber & Wood products 29 18 24 -5 12 -12 22 20 42 20 23 -19 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 0 Pulp & Paper 10 3 10 0 -3 -13 -5 5 -7 -2 5 12 -7 -8 -1 6 -12 -11 Chemicals 27 18 32 5 17 -15 21 16 26 5 20 -6 18 10 21 3 12 -9 Petroleum & Coal products 31 19 38 7 25 -13 27 18 18 -9 9 -9 -5 -7 -4 1 -4 0 Ceramics, Stone & Clay 22 16 24 2 18 -6 21 15 11 -10 19 8 6 11 7 1 13 6 Iron & Steel 12 14 18 6 14 -4 19 24 34 15 43 9 30 32 43 13 42 -1 Nonferrous metals 23 14 40 17 34 -6 26 28 28 2 24 -4 30 27 37 7 33 -4 Food & Beverages 18 16 19 1 15 -4 5 6 4 -1 6 2 11 9 9 -2 8 -1 Processed metals 8 5 13 5 3 -10 12 8 19 7 9 -10 20 14 23 3 22 -1 General-purpose machinery 35 33 33 -2 37 4 25 23 36 11 29 -7 23 13 33 10 16 -17 Production machinery 36 38 46 10 42 -4 27 30 30 3 23 -7 22 13 27 5 20 -7 Business oriented machinery 30 30 23 -7 27 4 22 13 22 0 13 -9 17 18 20 3 16 -4 Electrical machinery 27 26 27 0 25 -2 22 15 26 4 19 -7 9 12 14 5 14 0 Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc. -14 0 -4 10 -4 0 9 2 0 -9 -9 -9 14 11 16 2 10 -6 Motor vehicles 18 14 20 2 16 -4 23 18 24 1 19 -5 30 22 32 2 22 -10 Basic materials 21 14 26 5 15 -11 14 14 18 4 16 -2 8 5 12 4 9 -3 Processing 23 21 25 2 21 -4 18 13 20 2 14 -6 14 11 17 3 12 -5 Nonmanufacturing 23 19 23 0 20 -3 19 14 20 1 14 -6 8 4 9 1 5 -4 Construction 48 35 45 -3 38 -7 34 22 32 -2 21 -11 17 9 18 1 6 -12 Real estate 35 30 34 -1 28 -6 31 21 31 0 21 -10 14 12 15 1 9 -6 Goods rental & Leasing 15 18 24 9 21 -3 23 20 27 4 17 -10 20 16 24 4 20 -4 Wholesaling 21 15 24 3 16 -8 11 9 13 2 11 -2 0 -2 3 3 0 -3 Retailing 8 13 10 2 15 5 7 7 2 -5 5 3 -5 -4 -11 -6 -8 3 Transport & Postal activities 18 11 21 3 14 -7 17 10 22 5 13 -9 8 4 9 1 5 -4 Communications 19 19 19 0 19 0 19 19 15 -4 15 0 23 26 25 2 25 0 Information services 27 20 33 6 27 -6 29 24 36 7 26 -10 17 12 18 1 18 0 Electric & Gas utilities 3 5 8 5 -3 -11 22 17 26 4 15 -11 18 12 15 -3 18 3 Services for businesses 40 33 36 -4 32 -4 26 20 25 -1 15 -10 12 7 15 3 9 -6 Services for individuals 35 30 24 -11 27 3 16 11 15 -1 9 -6 7 3 6 -1 5 -1 Accommodations, Eating & Drinking services 6 7 0 -6 0 0 15 10 10 -5 14 4 0 -2 -2 -2 1 3 All industries 23 19 25 2 19 -6 18 13 19 1 14 -5 9 6 11 2 7 -4 All Enterprises Notes: 1. Response rate = The number of enterprises that responded to the question on Business Conditions / The number of sample enterprises * 100 Manufacturing 15 12 19 4 14 -5 2. Actual result: Judgement at the time of the survey, Forecast: Judgement at the time of three months hence Nonmanufacturing 14 10 14 0 9 -5 Changes in actual result = "Actual result of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the previous survey" All industries 15 11 16 1 11 -5 Changes in forecast = "Forecast of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the current survey" 3. "Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc." indicates Transportation machinery excluding Motor vehicles. Not to be released before 8:50 a.m. on Friday, December 15, 2017 1
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Tankan Summary (December 2017) 175th Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan
December 15, 2017Number of Sample Enterprises Ref.: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises Research and Statistics Department
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate (yen per US dollar) Bank of JapanAll Enterprises 4,333 6,312 10,645 99.6% FY 2016 FY 2017Large Enterprises 1,074 1,023 2,097 99.6% 1H 2H 1H 2HMedium-sized Enterprises 1,140 1,831 2,971 99.5% June 2017 Survey 108.29 106.57 109.89 108.31 108.36 108.27Small Enterprises 2,119 3,458 5,577 99.6% Sept. 2017 Survey - - - 109.29 109.46 109.12Financial institutions - - 195 98.5% Dec. 2017 Survey - - - 110.18 110.69 109.66Responding Period: November 14 to December 14
1. Business Conditions(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points)
All Enterprises Notes: 1. Response rate = The number of enterprises that responded to the question on Business Conditions / The number of sample enterprises * 100Manufacturing 15 12 19 4 14 -5 2. Actual result: Judgement at the time of the survey, Forecast: Judgement at the time of three months henceNonmanufacturing 14 10 14 0 9 -5 Changes in actual result = "Actual result of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the previous survey"All industries 15 11 16 1 11 -5 Changes in forecast = "Forecast of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the current survey"
3. "Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc." indicates Transportation machinery excluding Motor vehicles.
Not to be released before 8:50 a.m.on Friday, December 15, 2017
1
1. Business Conditions (Continued)
<Ref.> Percentage share of the number of respondents choosing each alternative(%, % points)
Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 SurveyActual result Actual result Forecast
Banks 6.9 - -9.6 1.0 All Enterprises Nonmanufacturing -34 -37 -36 -2 -39 -3Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses 14.3 - -7.3 -7.4 All industries -28 -31 -31 -3 -33 -2Financial products transaction dealers -7.2 - 13.6 -2.1Insurance companies 19.5 - 26.0 2.1Non-deposit money corporations 18.6 - 25.4 6.3 Number of New Graduates Hired (All industries)
(Memo) All industries including Financial institutions 3.9 - 7.0 0.6 (Surveyed only in June and December) (Year-to-year % change)Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions 6.7 - 6.8 0.9 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018
(Memo) All industries including Financial institutions 0.4 - 7.7 0.7Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions 0.2 - 7.9 2.1
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7. Corporate Finance 8. Business Conditions of Financial institutions
Financial Position (All industries) Business Conditions(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight," % points) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points)
Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 SurveyActual result Forecast Actual result Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast
Lending Attitude of Financial institutions (All industries) Production Capacity(Diffusion index of "Accommodative" minus "Severe," % points) (Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points)
Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 SurveyActual result Forecast Actual result Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast
Change in Interest Rate on Loans (All industries) Employment Conditions(Diffusion index of "Rise" minus "Fall," % points) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points)
Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 SurveyActual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast
Conditions for CP Issuance (All industries) <Based on CP-Issuing Enterprises>(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Severe," % points)
Sept. 2017 Survey Dec. 2017 Survey Actual result Forecast Actual result
ChangesLarge Enterprises 44 46 2
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(Reference Charts) Notes: 1. Unless otherwise noted, shaded areas indicate periods of recession (according to the Cabinet Office). 2. There is a discontinuity between the figures up to the December 2003 survey and those from the March 2004 survey (as for the December 2003 survey, the results of preliminary survey based on "Capital" are also shown). 3. The "Principal Enterprises" survey was discontinued after the December 2003 survey.
[Business Conditions] Peaks and Bottoms of Business Conditions (from May 1974 )(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points)
ManufacturingLarge Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises
Large Enterprises (Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of Principal Enterprises)
Medium-sized Enterprises
Small Enterprises
Forecast
"Favorable"
"Unfavorable"
"Favorable"
"Unfavorable"
8
[Supply and Demand Conditions and Prices (Large Manufacturing Enterprises)]Peaks and Bottoms of Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions
Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions for Products and Services for Products and Services (from May 1974 ) (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply," % points )Large Manufacturing Enterprises
[Developments of Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses] Notes: 1. The graphs indicate the revision pattern of fixed investment. The horizontal axis represents the point of time when the survey is conducted for each fiscal year. Namely, the first survey for each year (March survey) is on the left, and the last survey (June survey of the following year; actual result) is on the right. The vertical axis represents the year-to-year percent change. 2. There is a discontinuity in the data in December 2014 due to the regular revision of the sample enterprises.
(1) Large Enterprises 3. Excludes software and R&D investment.
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries
10
15
20
25
(Year-to-year % change)
10
15
20
25
(Year-to-year % change)
10
15
20
25
(Year-to-year % change)
11
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change)
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
1111
(2) Small Enterprises
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries
5
10
15
20
25
30
(Year-to-year % change)
5
10
15
20
25
30
(Year-to-year % change)
5
10
15
20
25
30
(Year-to-year % change)
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
12
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change)
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change)
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
Average of historical data (FY2000 to FY2016)
FY2014
FY2015
FY2016
FY2017
1212
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] Peaks and Bottoms of Production Capacity (from May 1977 )(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points)
ManufacturingLarge Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]Peaks and Bottoms of Employment Conditions (from May 1986 ) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points)
All industriesLarge Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises