Tankan Summary (December 2012) 155th Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan December 14, 2012 Number of Sample Enterprises Ref.: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises Research and Statistics Department Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate (yen per US dollar) Bank of Japan All Enterprises 4,287 6,367 10,654 99.3% FY 2011 FY 2012 Large Enterprises 1,165 1,147 2,312 99.2% 1H 2H 1H 2H Medium-sized Enterprises 1,153 1,765 2,918 99.0% June 2012 Survey 79.27 80.18 78.35 78.95 78.98 78.93 Small Enterprises 1,969 3,455 5,424 99.5% Sept. 2012 Survey - - - 79.06 79.16 78.97 Financial institutions - - 197 98.5% Dec. 2012 Survey - - - 78.90 79.09 78.73 Responding Period: November 13 to December 13 1. Business Conditions (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points) Large Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises Sept. 2012 Survey Dec. 2012 Survey Sept. 2012 Survey Dec. 2012 Survey Sept. 2012 Survey Dec. 2012 Survey Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Changes Manufacturing -3 -3 -12 -9 -10 2 -6 -13 -12 -6 -20 -8 -14 -16 -18 -4 -26 -8 Textiles -13 -10 -13 0 -10 3 -31 -35 -34 -3 -31 3 -26 -25 -25 1 -33 -8 Lumber & Wood products 22 18 13 -9 18 5 -6 -3 -3 3 -12 -9 -29 -24 -13 16 -23 -10 Pulp & Paper -4 -17 -10 -6 -10 0 -25 -25 -20 5 -23 -3 -27 -27 -28 -1 -28 0 Chemicals -4 0 -10 -6 -7 3 -2 -6 4 6 -6 -10 1 0 -2 -3 -11 -9 Petroleum & Coal products -13 7 0 13 0 0 27 13 -6 -33 -19 -13 -8 -6 -3 5 -20 -17 Ceramics, Stone & Clay -2 -2 -8 -6 -6 2 4 -4 0 -4 -2 -2 -15 -11 -8 7 -18 -10 Iron & Steel -28 -12 -28 0 -30 -2 -25 -21 -35 -10 -49 -14 -19 -27 -31 -12 -40 -9 Nonferrous metals 0 0 -13 -13 -19 -6 -20 -18 -28 -8 -38 -10 -23 -19 -23 0 -26 -3 Food & Beverages 8 0 0 -8 4 4 -6 -3 -7 -1 -5 2 -1 1 -5 -4 -4 1 Processed metals -23 -7 -14 9 -9 5 -9 -12 -12 -3 -18 -6 -12 -13 -18 -6 -26 -8 General-purpose machinery 9 7 -4 -13 -11 -7 -10 -20 -6 4 -30 -24 -11 -26 -21 -10 -32 -11 Production machinery -11 -1 -18 -7 -15 3 16 -4 -1 -17 -16 -15 -3 -18 -12 -9 -30 -18 Business oriented machinery 6 4 -11 -17 -2 9 0 -11 -9 -9 -11 -2 -18 -17 -29 -11 -28 1 Electrical machinery -13 -7 -17 -4 -13 4 -15 -21 -23 -8 -30 -7 -18 -20 -26 -8 -34 -8 Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc. -14 -14 -25 -11 -25 0 -9 -20 -6 3 -28 -22 -13 -13 -20 -7 -22 -2 Motor vehicles 19 -5 -9 -28 -16 -7 15 -13 -2 -17 -23 -21 4 -18 -16 -20 -33 -17 Basic materials -7 -3 -11 -4 -9 2 -13 -15 -16 -3 -23 -7 -19 -19 -18 1 -26 -8 Processing -2 -3 -12 -10 -10 2 -3 -12 -10 -7 -19 -9 -10 -15 -19 -9 -26 -7 Nonmanufacturing 8 5 4 -4 3 -1 2 -3 -1 -3 -7 -6 -9 -16 -11 -2 -19 -8 Construction 1 -3 0 -1 0 0 -5 -10 3 8 -9 -12 -13 -23 -10 3 -20 -10 Real estate 8 11 13 5 13 0 4 -6 5 1 -6 -11 1 -5 -1 -2 -11 -10 Goods rental & Leasing 21 15 19 -2 16 -3 15 7 11 -4 2 -9 3 -2 9 6 0 -9 Wholesaling 0 -2 -6 -6 -1 5 -1 -3 -6 -5 -7 -1 -14 -16 -16 -2 -22 -6 Retailing 3 5 1 -2 3 2 6 -5 -4 -10 -6 -2 -10 -21 -23 -13 -27 -4 Transport & Postal activities 4 -3 -2 -6 -5 -3 -6 -10 -12 -6 -15 -3 -16 -20 -15 1 -24 -9 Communications 48 44 40 -8 28 -12 -5 -9 9 14 -8 -17 14 17 13 -1 8 -5 Information services 7 10 12 5 10 -2 7 3 4 -3 3 -1 -10 -7 -11 -1 -12 -1 Electric & Gas utilities -5 -10 -5 0 -20 -15 19 17 13 -6 11 -2 0 7 0 0 0 0 Services for businesses 29 21 14 -15 11 -3 8 4 12 4 -4 -16 3 -5 0 -3 -13 -13 Services for individuals 23 15 20 -3 20 0 -3 3 -9 -6 -15 -6 -10 -14 -13 -3 -16 -3 Accommodations, Eating & Drinking services 6 -4 -10 -16 -14 -4 -2 -6 -4 -2 -7 -3 -19 -24 -21 -2 -28 -7 All industries 2 1 -3 -5 -3 0 -2 -7 -5 -3 -12 -7 -11 -15 -14 -3 -22 -8 All Enterprises Notes: 1. Response rate = The number of enterprises that responded to the question on Business Conditions / The number of sample enterprises * 100 Manufacturing -8 -12 -15 -7 -20 -5 2. Actual result: Judgement at the time of the survey, Forecast: Judgement at the time of three months hence Nonmanufacturing -3 -9 -6 -3 -12 -6 Changes in actual result = "Actual result of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the previous survey" All industries -6 -10 -9 -3 -15 -6 Changes in forecast = "Forecast of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the current survey" 3. "Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc." indicates Transportation machinery excluding Motor vehicles. Not to be released before 8:50 a.m. on Friday, December 14, 2012 1
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Tankan Summary (December 2012) 155th Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan
December 14, 2012Number of Sample Enterprises Ref.: Average of predicted exchange rates expected by large manufacturing enterprises Research and Statistics Department
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing Total Response rate (yen per US dollar) Bank of JapanAll Enterprises 4,287 6,367 10,654 99.3% FY 2011 FY 2012Large Enterprises 1,165 1,147 2,312 99.2% 1H 2H 1H 2HMedium-sized Enterprises 1,153 1,765 2,918 99.0% June 2012 Survey 79.27 80.18 78.35 78.95 78.98 78.93Small Enterprises 1,969 3,455 5,424 99.5% Sept. 2012 Survey - - - 79.06 79.16 78.97Financial institutions - - 197 98.5% Dec. 2012 Survey - - - 78.90 79.09 78.73Responding Period: November 13 to December 13
1. Business Conditions(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points)
All Enterprises Notes: 1. Response rate = The number of enterprises that responded to the question on Business Conditions / The number of sample enterprises * 100Manufacturing -8 -12 -15 -7 -20 -5 2. Actual result: Judgement at the time of the survey, Forecast: Judgement at the time of three months henceNonmanufacturing -3 -9 -6 -3 -12 -6 Changes in actual result = "Actual result of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the previous survey"All industries -6 -10 -9 -3 -15 -6 Changes in forecast = "Forecast of the current survey" minus "Actual result of the current survey"
3. "Shipbuilding & Heavy machinery, etc." indicates Transportation machinery excluding Motor vehicles.
Not to be released before 8:50 a.m.on Friday, December 14, 2012
1
1. Business Conditions (Continued)
<Ref.> Percentage share of the number of respondents choosing each alternative(%, % points)
Sept. 2012 Survey Dec. 2012 SurveyActual result Actual result Forecast
Banks 4.6 - 1.4 0.7 All Enterprises Nonmanufacturing -5 -6 -7 -2 -8 -1Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses -39.6 - -0.9 0.9 All industries 1 0 0 -1 0 0Financial products transaction dealers -35.5 - -5.6 -6.6Insurance companies 26.4 - -5.0 3.3Non-deposit money corporations -37.7 - 20.7 -7.5 Number of Employees (All industries) (Year-to-year % change)
(Memo) All industries including Financial institutions 4.4 - 3.1 0.7 End of End of End of End of Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions 4.0 - 2.6 0.6 Dec. 2011 March 2012 June 2012 Sept. 2012
Land Purchasing Expenses of Financial institutions (Year-to-year % change) Small Enterprises -0.6 -0.3 0.3 0.4Financial institutions -22.8 - 37.0 5.1 All Enterprises 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1
Banks 106.8 - -66.4 14.2 All Enterprises & Financial institutions 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1Shinkin banks & Other financial institutions for small businesses -39.6 - 25.0 -10.7 Financial institutions -0.4 -0.9 0.1 0.2Financial products transaction dealers -100.0 - - -Insurance companies -56.5 - 189.0 7.0Non-deposit money corporations - - - - Number of New Graduates Hired (All industries)
(Memo) All industries including Financial institutions -15.8 - -8.6 11.2 (Surveyed only in June and December) (Year-to-year % change)Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions -15.0 - -7.0 13.2 FY2011 FY2012 FY2013
(Memo) All industries including Financial institutions 1.5 - 7.9 0.5Nonmanufacturing including Financial institutions -0.4 - 7.9 1.0
** Data are compiled under the new lease accounting standard.6
7. Corporate Finance 8. Business Conditions of Financial institutions
Financial Position (All industries) Business Conditions(Diffusion index of "Easy" minus "Tight," % points) (Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points)
Sept. 2012 Survey Dec. 2012 Survey Sept. 2012 Survey Dec. 2012 SurveyActual result Forecast Actual result Actual result Forecast Actual result Forecast
Quarter-end balance of cash, deposits, and securities listed as liquid assets
Monthly average sales during the fiscal year, which includes the related quarter
7
(Reference Charts) Notes: 1. Unless otherwise noted, shaded areas indicate periods of recession (according to the Cabinet Office). 2. There is no continuity between the figures up to the December 2003 survey and those from the March 2004 survey (as for the December 2003 survey, the results of preliminary survey based on "Capital" are also shown). 3. The "Principal Enterprises" survey was discontinued after the December 2003 survey.
[Business Conditions] Peaks and Bottoms of Business Conditions (from May 1974)(Diffusion index of "Favorable" minus "Unfavorable," % points)
Manufacturingf i
8
ManufacturingLarge Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises
Large Enterprises (Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of Principal Enterprises)
Medium-sized Enterprises
Small Enterprises
Forecast
"Favorable"
"Unfavorable"
"Favorable"
"Unfavorable"
8
[Supply and Demand Conditions and Prices (Large Manufacturing Enterprises)]Peaks and Bottoms of Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions
Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions for Products and Services for Products and Services (from May 1974) (Diffusion index of "Excess demand" minus "Excess supply," % points)Large Manufacturing Enterprises
[Developments of Fixed Investment including Land Purchasing Expenses] Notes: 1. The graphs indicate the revision pattern of fixed investment. The horizontal axis represents the point of time when the survey is conducted for each fiscal year. Namely, the first survey for each year (March survey) is on the left, and the last survey (June
survey of the following year; actual result) is on the right. The vertical axis represents the year-to-year percent change.
2. The graphs also show December 2009 survey figures that were recalculated with sample enterprises after the March 2010
(1) Large Enterprises revision.
3. Excludes software investment. 4. Data of FY2009 or later are compiled under the new lease accounting standard.
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change) Average of historical data(FY1984 to FY2011)
FY2006(Pre-revision)
FY2007
FY2006(Post-revision)
FY2008
FY2009(Pre-revision)
FY2010
FY2009(Post-revision)
FY2011
FY2012
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
FY2006(Pre-revision)
(Year-to-year % change) Average of historical data (FY1975 to FY2011)
FY2007
FY2006(Post-revision)
FY2008
FY2009(Pre-revision)
FY2010
FY2009(Post-revision)
FY2011
FY2012
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change) Average of historical data (FY1984 to FY2011)
FY2006(Pre-revision)FY2007
FY2006(Post-revision)
FY2008FY2009(Pre-revision)
FY2010
FY2009(Post-revision) FY2011
FY2012
11
(2) Small Enterprises
Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing All industries
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change) Average of historical data (FY1984 to FY2011)
FY2006(Pre-revision)
FY2007
FY2006(Post-revision)
FY2008
FY2009(Pre-revision)
FY2010
FY2009(Post-revision)
FY2011
FY2012
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change) Average of historical data (FY1975 to FY2011)
FY2006(Pre-revision)
FY2007
FY2006(Post-revision)
FY2008
FY2009(Pre-revision)
FY2010
FY2009(Post-revision)
FY2011
FY2012
-50
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
March June Sept. Dec. (March)Forecast
(June)Actual result
(Year-to-year % change) Average of historical data(FY1984 to FY2011)
FY2006(Pre-revision)
FY2007
FY2006(Post-revision)
FY2008
FY2009(Pre-revision)
FY2010
FY2009(Post-revision)
FY2011
FY2012
12
[Production Capacity (Manufacturing)] Peaks and Bottoms of Production Capacity (from May 1977)(Diffusion index of "Excessive capacity" minus "Insufficient capacity," % points)
ManufacturingLarge Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises
[Employment Conditions (All industries)]Peaks and Bottoms of Employment Conditions (from May 1986) (Diffusion index of "Excessive employment" minus "Insufficient employment," % points)
All industriesLarge Enterprises Medium-sized Enterprises Small Enterprises