T. Kuragano (GOVST) M. Kamachi ( GOVPatron ) Y. Fujii(OSE-TT), N. Usui (COSS-TT),

Japan ReportNational Forecasting System

(MOVEMRI.COM)and Japan Working Team- Progress in 2012-2014 -

T. Kuragano (GOVST)M. Kamachi (GOVPatron)

Y. Fujii(OSE-TT), N. Usui (COSS-TT), S. Ishizaki (ET-OOFS),

Y. Takaya, T. Toyoda, K. SakamotoJMA/MRI

Recent Progress (1/2)

• MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 and -SETO systems will be in operation early 2015.

• OSE for Argo floats and TAO/TRITON array was done (Fujii et al., 2014).

• Impact of Aquarius SSS data was examined (Toyoda et al., in revision).

• Seawater mass variation was examined to detect steric component from altimeter data (Kuragano et al., 2014).

Recent Progress (2/2)

• Analysis and predicted variables have been available since August 2014 for research and commercial users through the Japan Meteorological Business Support Center.

• Application studies are in progress in collaboration with related organizations. – Fishery, Debris, and Radiation contamination

• 18th Japan data assimilation summer school was held in August 2014 as GOV Outreach activity.

MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 for Seasonal/ENSO Forecast

• MRI.COM-G2 is an ocean part of the coupled model, JMA/MRI-CGCM2, for the next operational seasonal/ENSO forecast system in JMA

• Ocean Reanalysis was done by the assimilation system MOVE/MRI.COM-G2

• System performance was evaluated from the hindcast experiments

MRI.COM v3.2• Tripolor grid and Sea Ice model

- analysis and prediction in arctic area and sea ice• Higher latitudinal resolution

- 0.3 - 1.0 degree → 0.3 - 0.5 degree• Atmospheric forcing - JRA25/JCDAS -> JRA55

MOVE major revisions• Change statistical vertical EOF modes

- 57 regions from 40 ones in previous version - Monthly EOF modes from annual EOF mode

• Bias correction scheme• FGAT （ First-Guess at Adequate Time) • Ocean mass correction for altimeter data• T/S assimilation up to 1750 m from up to 1500 m

Lines are drawn for every 10 grids

Main Upgrades of System- MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 -

NINO3.4 SST prediction NINO3.4 RMSE (Init: Feb)

JMA/MRI-CGCM2

JMA/MRI-CGCM1(2009 experiment)

JMA/MRI-CGCM1(2014 experiment extended for LT 7-12 months)

February and November initialized predictions show remarkable improvement: ACC keeps high beyond the Spring predictability barrier

[K]

NINO3.4 ACC (Init: Feb)

NINO3 SST RMSE (Init: Nov)[K]

NINO3 SST ACC (Init: Nov)

MOVE/MRI.COM-SETO for coastal high tide

prediction

MOVE-WNP 4DVAR• 0.1x0.1 deg., 54 layers • 10-day assimilation

window• To predict short-term

open-ocean variation

SETO Coastal Model• 2km x 2km 54 layers• increment from WNP

4DVAR• To represent detailed

impact on the coastal area

Target: To predict costal high tide and rapid current caused by open ocean variation

8

Study for the unusual high tide in 2011

ObsModel

SSH on 29SEP2011

AB ST MI

TyphoonTyphoon

Assimilation experiment: 2km-coastal assimilative model 1 Aug – 31 Oct 2011

The Kuroshio took a nearshore path at the eastern flank of the Izu Ridge

Izu Ridge

Itsukushima Shrine

Unusual high tide

Kanto

Observation SST SLA In Situ TAO/TRITON ARGOType Eq Ex 0-1 2-3 4-5 6-7 8-9

OSE-XBO ○ ○ ○ OSE-XAF ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ OSE-AR2 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ OSE-AR4 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ OSE-AR6 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ OSE-AR8 ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ OSE-XTT ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ OSE-TTeq ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ REG-Exp ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○ ○

Last digit of WMO number

Reference Data

Observed Data Assimilated in Each OSEs

OSE for ARGO and TAO/TRITON

9 simulation experiments are performed in the period of 2000-2012 using MOVE-G.

Profiles of Argo where the last digit of the WMO number is 8 or 9 are withheld in all simulations except for Reg-Exp, and used for the reference data.

OSE Configuration

Increase of ACC against OSE-XBO (0-300m average)

The accuracy of TS fields is generally increased with the increase in the number of assimilated Argo profiles.

The complementary impact of TRITON on T is larger than that of Argo floats in the western tropical Pacific (OSE-XAF has higher T accuracy than OSE-XTT).

The increase of ACCs for both TS with the increase of the number of Argo assimilated is closer to linear in NINO3 (Enhanced deployment of Argo floats is desirable).

SSS impact on MOVE/MRI.COM

• Impact of Aquarius SSS data on MOVE/MRI.COM-G2 are examined for future operational use of SSS

• Aquarius official release level 3 SSS standard mapped image daily data v2.0

• CTL Exp.: assimilation run for T/S profile and SLA data• ASA Exp.: SSS data are additionally assimilated

Impacts in the North Pacific• Increase of subsurface salinity and temperature especially

in winter

• Strengthen of mixing at surface layer, which is consistent with in-situ data based analysis

S 100 m

T 100 m

PV 100 m

MLD CTL

MLD ASA

In-situ basedAnalysis

Ocean mass correction for SLA

• SL variation caused by ocean mass variation is examined to steric height component from altimetric SLA.

• Local mass variation as a response to seasonal water flux, wind stress and surface pressure variation is examined using a barotropic global ocean model.

• The results are well consistent with seasonal mean variation of altimeteric SLA minus steric height.

• The results are adopted for the correction of SLA data in MOVE/MRI.COM-G2.

Altimetric SL　 Kuragano & Kamachi (2000)

Steric SL Ishii and Kimoto (2009)

mass

Amplitude of SL variation by mass

Phase of SL variation by mass

Cost function:

Ocean mass correction for SLA

2

22

2

)()(2

1

2ccchxdh

cJJJ trendBT

jojj

jcTSobsbackground

Model steric height

Altimetric SLA

Seasonal mass-related SSH

Trend of global mean mass-related SSH:2mm/yr

ojh:SSHAltimetric

trendBTj

oj cch :SSHcorrectedmass

2

2)(

2

1 ojj

jTSobsbackground hxdhJJJ

TSobsbackground JJJ

41010c4105c4103c

Assimilation including mass correction terms

Results of global mean SSH variation by applying mass correction

18th Data Assimilation Summer School

19 - 22 Aug. 2014, in Mutsu, Aomori Prefecture

As an Outreach of GOVIt continues from 1997 under the support of Japan Marine Science Foundation & JAMSTEC.3 days course of fundamental lectures, practices and applications

Participants

BBQ Party

Lectures