GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team (MEAP-TT) P. Brasseur (CNRS/LEGI, FR) and N.

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction Task Team

(MEAP-TT)

P. Brasseur (CNRS/LEGI, FR) and N. Gruber (ETH, CH), co-chairs

In this report: The joint IMBER-GODAE initiative for ecosystem modelling

2007 workshop conclusions and recommendations from IGST

Task Team: objectives and membership

Actions and furure plan

GODAE Ocean View 1st Steering Team meeting

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

The GODAE – IMBER initiative for ecosystem modelling

The goal is “to investigate the sensitivity of marine biogeochemical cycles and ecosystems to global change, on time

scales ranging from years to decades”.

The IMBER vision is to provide a comprehensive understanding of, and accurate predictive capacity for, ocean responses to accelerating global

change and the consequent effects on the Earth System and human society.

At the first GODAE-IMBER meeting at CNRS (12-13 June 2007) a new working group was formed to facilitate dialogue between those developing new ecosystem models and the developers of the operational systems.

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Joint GODAE-IMBER workshop, June 2007

Main outcomes and response from IGST

Focus on 3 key areas

– How IMBER modellers can benefit from the products and insight generated by GODAE ? IGST encouraged IMBER to plan offline experiments with GODAE physical ocean state estimates (reanalysis)

– How GODAE products can be improved from the particular perspective of IMBER modellers ? IGST recognized the critical importance of vertical processes (advection, diffusion) for many situations of

IMBER interest, and suggested investigations into these vertical processes with systems already coupled

– How ocean observing systems can be designed and improved to better observed ocean ecosystem and biogeochemistry ? IGST recommanded not to make this area a too high priority (GODAE not the relevant political leverage to

move these issues forward)

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

GODAE-IMBER working group

Membership

Name Institution Patrick Monfray* CNRS, France Rahgu Murtugudde* ESSIC/UMD, US Fei Chai* University of Maine, US Tony Lee NASA / JPL, US Naoki Yoshie* Fisheries Res. Agency, JapanHiromichi Igarashi JAMSTEC, Japan Yoichi Ishikawa Kyoto University Toshiyuki Awaji Kyoto University Richard Matear CSIRO Marine & Atm ResRosa Barciela Met Office, UK Kirsten Wilmer-Becker** Met Office, UK Pierre Brasseur CNRS, France Eric Greiner Mercator-ocean, France Keith Brander* ICES Nicolas Gruber* (excused) ETH Zürich, CH* invited by IMBER, others by GODAE** assuming the secretariat of the meeting

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

GODAE-IMBER Working Group

« activities » in 2008

– No formal meeting of the working group since June 2007, no feedback from IGST discussed by the WG;

– Patrick Monfray (CNRS) stepped down as IGST member, Nicolas Gruber in charge of the working group;

– The WG synthesized its key findings in the GODAE paper on ecosystems (Brasseur et al. 2008);

– Discussions about the integration of new biogeochemical models into GODAE systems (GODAE final symposium);

– GODAE symposium report published by Nicolas Gruber in IMBER Update newsletter n°12;

– Input to white paper about the future of GODAE (Le Traon et al., 2008)

– Proposal for a new “GODAE” Task Team on Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction;

– Pierre Brasseur in charge of leading this Task Team since march 2009

Lack of continuity in the leadership of this group in 2008

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems

Areas of benefit : 4 main application categories

1. Phytoplankton biomass estimation in the open ocean

2. Monitoring ocean carbon uptake and CO2 air/sea exchange

3. Marine ecosystem management (fisheries) at seasonal and longer-term time scales

4. Regional downscaling and coastal applications

By Pierre Brasseur, Nicolas Gruber, Rosa Barciela, Keith Brander, Maeva Doron, Abdelali El Moussaoui, Alistair J. Hobday, Martin Huret, Anne-Sophie Kremeur, Patrick

Lehodey, Cyril Moulin, Ragu Murtugudde, Inna Senina, Einar Svendsen, Richard Matear

(Oceanography, accepted).

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Food availability

(x,y,z,t)

Plankton as a prey for fish

Predation mortality applied to plankton

Biogeochemical model (Frenzel et al., 2004)

Forage and predation

Growth

Fishing mortality

Natural mortality

Starvation mortality

GODAE systems

Physical ocean information input:

high-resolution and synopticity

Integrating biogeochemistry and ecology into ocean data assimilation systems

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

∆Cgasex = DIC - rC:P PO43- - 1/2 (Alk + rN:P PO4

3-) - Cant

Following Gruber and Sarmiento (2002)

Data: anthropogenic CO2Data: unperturbed CO2

Cant : estimated on the basis of the ∆C* method

of Gruber et al. (1996)

Air-sea CO2 fluxes from the inversion of ocean interior carbon data

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Predicted distribution of daytime epipelagic

micronekton biomass by SEAPODYM

(Lehodey et al., 2008)

Primary production derived from satellite (Behrenfeld et al., 2006)

day

nightsunset, sunrise

Epipelagic layer

surface1 2 3 4 5 6

Mesopelagic layer

Bathypelagic layer

PPE

En’SEAPODYM: 6 functional groups in

3 vertical layers

Integration of mid-trophic level (prey) dynamics to predict the behaviour of large oceanic predators

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Marine Ecosystem Analysis and Prediction:Objectives (from Le Traon et al., 2008)

(i) to foster research on ecosystem modeling and assimilation strategies in the framework of of operational systems;

(ii) to further assess and demonstrate the value of operational products for marine ecosystem monitoring and prediction;

(iii) to expand the concept of the “GODAE metrics” to biogeochemical variables and to develop intercomparison exercises across international groups;

(iv) to identify the essential sets of physical and biogeochemical observations required to constrain the coupled models and formulate relevant recommendations on these issues;

(v) to promote and organize educational activities (summer schools, training workshops, etc.) aimed at sharing experience between young scientists, operational oceanographers and marine ecosystem experts.

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

• IMBER-GODAE WG to be dissolved and aborbed by the MEAP-TT ?

• TT membership to be clarified (at least one scientist from all major GOV groups + main application areas + interfaces with IMBER, ICES, CLIOTOP, SOLAS ? IOCCG ? GEOTRACES ?);

• Revisit the IMBER-GODAE working plan proposed in 2007, taking into account the recommendations of the IGST and ISSC;

Actions and future plan

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

GODAE-IMBER Working Group

Initial plan

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

• IMBER-GODAE WG to be dissolved and aborbed by the MEAP-TT ?

• TT membership to be reconsidered (at least one scientist from all major GOV groups + main application areas + experts, interfaces with IMBER, ICES, CLIOTOP, SOLAS ? IOCCG ? GEOTRACES ?);

• Revisit the IMBER-GODAE working plan proposed in 2007, taking into account the recommendations of the IGST and ISSC;

• Organize a workshop early next year (AGU ?) to review the progress made since 2007 and to develop a more structured framework of activities until 2013 (« bottom-up » approach needed to build a realistic workplan);

• Develop a proposal for a summer school in liaison with IMBER and/or SOLAS

Actions and future plan

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Questions ?

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

North Atlantic demonstration

Annual chlorophyll over 1992-2001 using MERCATOR re-analysis (MERA-11) and LOBSTER

1992 1993 1994 1995

1996 1997 1998 1999

2000 2001

First demonstration of interannual reanalysis of the biogeochemical

state of the ocean

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Log(chl) observations

Log(chl) from model with no biological assimilation

Log(chl) from model withbiological assimilation

Ocean Colour Data Assimilation

Real world experiments – on 1st July 2003

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

Examples of maps distributed online to stakeholders

Fisheries management with environmental data

September 16, 2008

GOVST First meeting, 08 – 10 June 2009, Toulouse, France

AlgaRisk08 project integrates EO with operational model (POLCOMS-ERSEM)

Predictive tool used by Environment Agency to assess prediction of nuisance bloom events on beaches

Daily analysis & 5 day forecast.

Parameters provided: physical: SST, salinity, stratification, currents, PAR, wind, cloud cover.

biogeochemical: phytoplankton biomass, flagellates, dinoflagellates, picoplankton, nutrient ratios.

Boundary conditions from FOAM