Lecture 0: Introduction Statistics 101 Mine C ¸ etinkaya-Rundel January 12, 2012 Syllabus & policies General Info Classroom: Social Sciences 139 Time: Tuesdays and Thursdays 1:15pm - 2:30pm Professor: Mine C ¸ etinkaya-Rundel Office: Old Chemistry 213 Email: [email protected]Teaching Yingbo Li - [email protected]Assistants: Brittany Cohen - [email protected]Anthony Weishampel - [email protected]Statistics 101 (Mine C ¸ etinkaya-Rundel) Lecture 0: Introduction January 12, 2012 1 / 40 Syllabus & policies Course goals & objectives Introduce you to the discipline of statistics as a science of understanding and analyzing data Provide you with the tools for solving real world problems using statistics and a better understanding of the process of scientific research and statistical inference By the end of the class you should be able to interpret statistical results in context and critique news stories and journal articles that include statistical information, be comfortable with concepts such as association and causation, random sampling and random assignment, statistical bias and statistical significance, and to understand and appreciate why real data beats anecdotes. Statistics 101 (Mine C ¸ etinkaya-Rundel) Lecture 0: Introduction January 12, 2012 2 / 40 Syllabus & policies Major topics discussed Exploratory data analysis: description, summary and visualization Principles of experimental design and causal inference Observational studies and non-causal inference The basics of probability and chance processes The normal distribution Central Limit Theorem and sampling distributions Statistical inference through theory and randomization Bivariate correlation and causality Simple and multiple linear regression and ANOVA Bayesian perspective in statistical inference Statistics 101 (Mine C ¸ etinkaya-Rundel) Lecture 0: Introduction January 12, 2012 3 / 40
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Lecture 0: Introduction
Statistics 101
Mine Cetinkaya-Rundel
January 12, 2012
Syllabus & policies
General Info
Classroom: Social Sciences 139Time: Tuesdays and Thursdays 1:15pm - 2:30pm
Professor: Mine Cetinkaya-RundelOffice: Old Chemistry 213Email: [email protected]
Introduce you to the discipline of statistics as a science ofunderstanding and analyzing data
Provide you with the tools for solving real world problems usingstatistics and a better understanding of the process of scientificresearch and statistical inferenceBy the end of the class you should be able to
interpret statistical results in context and critique news stories andjournal articles that include statistical information,be comfortable with concepts such as association and causation,random sampling and random assignment, statistical bias andstatistical significance, and to understand and appreciate why realdata beats anecdotes.
One question per lecture on material covered in previous classesGet credit for answering correctly.Generally in the first 5 minutes of class.Objective: motivate you to keep up with the material.
New questions:On new material introduced in class that day.Credit for clicking in, regardless of whether you have the correctanswer.Objective: make you an active participant and help me pace theclass.
Up to two unexcused late arrivals or absences will not affect yourclicker grade.
If one person is simultaneously using two or more clickers, the allowners of the clickers will receive a 0 for an overall clicker grade.
Final: Thursday, May 3, 9:00am - 12:00pm (Cumulative)
Exam dates cannot be changed. No make-up exams will begiven. If you cannot take the exams on these dates you shoulddrop this class.
You must bring a calculator to the exams (no cell phones, iPods,etc.) and you are also allowed to bring one sheet of notes(“cheat sheet”). This sheet must be no larger than 81
2” × 11” andmust be prepared by you (no photocopies). You may use bothsides of the sheet.
Aside from the TAs and the professor’s office hours, you can alsomake use of the Academic Skill Center. For more information, seehttp:// web.duke.edu/ arc .
late but during class: lose10% of pointsafter class on due date: lose20% of points
next day: lose 40% of points
later than next day: lose allpoints
There will not be make-ups for any of the online quizzes,homework, labs, or exams.
All regrade requests on homework assignments, labs, andexams must be discussed with the professor within one week ofreceiving your grade. There will be no grade changes after thefinal exam.
1 Read (or skim) the relevant sections before a new week begins,and then review again after the lectures.
2 Be an active participant during lectures and labs.3 Ask questions - during class or office hours, or by email. Ask me,
the TAs, and/or your classmates.4 Do the homework - start early and make sure you attempt and
understand all questions.5 Start your projects early and and allow adequate time for working
on them.6 Give yourself plenty of time time to prepare a good cheat sheet
for exams. This requires going through the material and takingthe time to review the concepts that you’re not comfortable with.
7 Do not procrastinate - don’t let a week go by with unansweredquestions as it will just make the following week’s material evenmore difficult to follow.
[...], the study also warnsthere is a significant shortageof qualified workers to analyzethese data sets adequately.According to the report, ashortfall of about 140,000 to190,000 individuals withanalytical expertise isprojected by 2018. The studyalso predicts a need for anadditional 1.5 millionmanagers and analysts bythat same date to fully engagethe true potential of thecurrently available data.
Work in groups for a few minutes to come up with data you wouldlike to find out about Sta 101 students. Think of interestingquestions since we will analyze these data throughout thesemester.
I will email with instructions to fill out an anonymous onlinesurvey over the weekend.